JeremyCuse
Renowned lacrosse analyst
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Interesting game for SU, a must win game against a quality opponent but clearly a few steps down from the ACC schedule. Losing Nanticoke hurts Albany overall especially from an offensive standpoint but does make them a bit harder to defend when you consider that the ball will be moving a lot more with him not in the picture. The SU Defense has been uneven to say the least this year so this will be another massive challenge especially if SU isn't winning draws consistently or at all like the last two games.
Albany offensively is a lot moving parts right now. With injuries and Nanticoke missing games and now off the team Marr has gone with a lot of different combinations. The game notes list the probable starters as follows: Attack: Patterson, Hay Tucker and Midfield: Yunker, John, Hogg. I believe that Hay has missed the last two games with an injury and I am unclear if he will be back or if him being listed as a probable starter is just Marr trying to keep SU guessing. Kyle Casey is their best assist guy from the midfield, I suspect he will play a lot at middie and Hogg will move to attack for Tucker as Cuse Alum 87 pointed out in another thread. From an SU standpoint we will miss Mellen a lot, he has been a massive thorn in Albany's side his whole career in shutting guys down. I suspect we will put Wyckoff on Patterson as while Hogg is the better scorer, Patterson is more of the director and the clear assist guy. From a midfield standpoint Kennedy will be on Hogg if he actually is playing midfield or Casey if Hogg is playing attack like I suspect he will be. If for some reason Hogg is at middie, Dearth will surely draw Casey. I can't speak for the other close D matchups but I assume Murphy will draw Hay if he plays as they matchup physically.
From an offensive standpoint, SU should have a major advantage at midfield. Albany's achilles heal under Marr has been through the midfield on both sides of the ball. Albany's has good size on its close D unit (shortest guy is 6'3) but they aren't the most athletic unit and while the LSM's Piseno and I believe Hay the older are solid, SU has the advantage. I don't think Albany will try and double pole, that puts two middies on shorties that SU needs to exploit. This will be a good game for Dordevic to get back on track, he has been a bit up an down and this game should provider him with an opportunity to get 3-4 + points. Attack will see three bigger defenders and there best guy who is either Kozar or Kunz will surely draw Rehfuss. Interested to see if we see Ferris more this game and or if the Cook midfield experience is finally ended. Donnelly is a solid goalie and has the ability to stand on his head. Albany gave up 14 to Vermont and 16 to Stony Brook the two best O teams they have faced so far. Keep an eye on Hiltz this game, he's been a little quiet the last two, could be in for a monster.
Albany is sort of UVA light in that they love to push and go with a lot of ISO stuff, though that may change up a bit with Nanticoke no longer in the picture. Albany is however, very turnover happy and is prone to stretches of sloppy play ( sound familiar). Albany is averaging over 17 turnovers a game and as I noted can go stretches where they are throwing the ball all over the place. From a midfield standpoint, Albany is not overly strong especially if Hogg is playing attack. They are not great dodgers outside of Casey and Ron John and Burgmaster are 2 way types who can shoot but aren't any real threat to dodge and score ala Nakie Mongtomery or Jackoboice. I think SU matches up well here but I also thought they matched up fairly well against ND and you saw how that went.
Faceoffs will be interesting, Endres is a true frosh and their main FOGO. He is slightly over 50% and seems like a promising X guy for a team that has been desperate for one since Ierlan transferred. Endres is somewhat similar to Phaup in that he has done well at times less skilled opponents but struggled against some of the better ones. He was 8-20 against our friend from Vermont and 12-27 against the Stony Brook FOGO that Phaup pretty much had his way with and 9-19 against Bingo That said he was 15-28 against Umass and then 18- 26 against Umass Lowell last Saturday so trending in a positive direction. I would like to think that between Phaup and Savage SU will be North of 50-55% but obviously that is far from guaranteed. Wing play may end up being a critical piece here and obviously we have been bad to abysmal at the wings so far this year. I keep waiting for us to change up personnel or something but so far no dice. I wouldn't be surprised if one or both teams double polled the wings. SU really could use some fresh blood on the wings and speed, at this point I would give Curry and Wyckoff a few runs just to change it up a bit. Kennedy has been excellent as usual at LSM but has struggled at the wing this year for some reason.
So what to expect, hard to say unfortunately. If SU plays like it did against UVA, Stony Brook and the second half against Duke it should win by the current line of 4-5 goals if not more. If it plays like last week or like it did against Army for 3 quarters all bets are off. SU has developed a bad habit of extended sloppy play that I worry could make a re-appearance here. I could also see this playing out like the Vermont game where SU comes out on fire gets up 3-4-5 goals and then next thing you know the game is tied or were clinging to a one goal lead. SU defensively needs to be better about forcing turnovers and with slides. Slides last week were again horrific, so many goals were allowed due to unnecessary or bad slides, twice we left a guy all alone for no reason, can't have it. Also SU needs to limit penalties, the man down D was abused last week by ND, we can't afford to give Albany easy goals. I would like to see us rebound from the last two games and really impose its will on Albany but not sure that's possible without way better play at the X and on D.
Albany offensively is a lot moving parts right now. With injuries and Nanticoke missing games and now off the team Marr has gone with a lot of different combinations. The game notes list the probable starters as follows: Attack: Patterson, Hay Tucker and Midfield: Yunker, John, Hogg. I believe that Hay has missed the last two games with an injury and I am unclear if he will be back or if him being listed as a probable starter is just Marr trying to keep SU guessing. Kyle Casey is their best assist guy from the midfield, I suspect he will play a lot at middie and Hogg will move to attack for Tucker as Cuse Alum 87 pointed out in another thread. From an SU standpoint we will miss Mellen a lot, he has been a massive thorn in Albany's side his whole career in shutting guys down. I suspect we will put Wyckoff on Patterson as while Hogg is the better scorer, Patterson is more of the director and the clear assist guy. From a midfield standpoint Kennedy will be on Hogg if he actually is playing midfield or Casey if Hogg is playing attack like I suspect he will be. If for some reason Hogg is at middie, Dearth will surely draw Casey. I can't speak for the other close D matchups but I assume Murphy will draw Hay if he plays as they matchup physically.
From an offensive standpoint, SU should have a major advantage at midfield. Albany's achilles heal under Marr has been through the midfield on both sides of the ball. Albany's has good size on its close D unit (shortest guy is 6'3) but they aren't the most athletic unit and while the LSM's Piseno and I believe Hay the older are solid, SU has the advantage. I don't think Albany will try and double pole, that puts two middies on shorties that SU needs to exploit. This will be a good game for Dordevic to get back on track, he has been a bit up an down and this game should provider him with an opportunity to get 3-4 + points. Attack will see three bigger defenders and there best guy who is either Kozar or Kunz will surely draw Rehfuss. Interested to see if we see Ferris more this game and or if the Cook midfield experience is finally ended. Donnelly is a solid goalie and has the ability to stand on his head. Albany gave up 14 to Vermont and 16 to Stony Brook the two best O teams they have faced so far. Keep an eye on Hiltz this game, he's been a little quiet the last two, could be in for a monster.
Albany is sort of UVA light in that they love to push and go with a lot of ISO stuff, though that may change up a bit with Nanticoke no longer in the picture. Albany is however, very turnover happy and is prone to stretches of sloppy play ( sound familiar). Albany is averaging over 17 turnovers a game and as I noted can go stretches where they are throwing the ball all over the place. From a midfield standpoint, Albany is not overly strong especially if Hogg is playing attack. They are not great dodgers outside of Casey and Ron John and Burgmaster are 2 way types who can shoot but aren't any real threat to dodge and score ala Nakie Mongtomery or Jackoboice. I think SU matches up well here but I also thought they matched up fairly well against ND and you saw how that went.
Faceoffs will be interesting, Endres is a true frosh and their main FOGO. He is slightly over 50% and seems like a promising X guy for a team that has been desperate for one since Ierlan transferred. Endres is somewhat similar to Phaup in that he has done well at times less skilled opponents but struggled against some of the better ones. He was 8-20 against our friend from Vermont and 12-27 against the Stony Brook FOGO that Phaup pretty much had his way with and 9-19 against Bingo That said he was 15-28 against Umass and then 18- 26 against Umass Lowell last Saturday so trending in a positive direction. I would like to think that between Phaup and Savage SU will be North of 50-55% but obviously that is far from guaranteed. Wing play may end up being a critical piece here and obviously we have been bad to abysmal at the wings so far this year. I keep waiting for us to change up personnel or something but so far no dice. I wouldn't be surprised if one or both teams double polled the wings. SU really could use some fresh blood on the wings and speed, at this point I would give Curry and Wyckoff a few runs just to change it up a bit. Kennedy has been excellent as usual at LSM but has struggled at the wing this year for some reason.
So what to expect, hard to say unfortunately. If SU plays like it did against UVA, Stony Brook and the second half against Duke it should win by the current line of 4-5 goals if not more. If it plays like last week or like it did against Army for 3 quarters all bets are off. SU has developed a bad habit of extended sloppy play that I worry could make a re-appearance here. I could also see this playing out like the Vermont game where SU comes out on fire gets up 3-4-5 goals and then next thing you know the game is tied or were clinging to a one goal lead. SU defensively needs to be better about forcing turnovers and with slides. Slides last week were again horrific, so many goals were allowed due to unnecessary or bad slides, twice we left a guy all alone for no reason, can't have it. Also SU needs to limit penalties, the man down D was abused last week by ND, we can't afford to give Albany easy goals. I would like to see us rebound from the last two games and really impose its will on Albany but not sure that's possible without way better play at the X and on D.
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