ACC Atlantic preview: Welcome to Clemson's world

[HtownOrange]

I think you're overthinking this. Maryland is a decent P5 team. They are tough to beat at home. We don't enjoy much if any talent advantage. It's an early road game for an untested OL and LB core. I don't think we have to look too far to see why this game could go either way. Could we win comfortably? Perhaps. But I'd put more money on this being a tight game into the 4th qtr.

There is nothing to overthink. HCDB has a proven system, SU has proved it, and UM is now installing a new offense and defense under a year coach that has yet to prove he is P5 worhy. As to the talent at UM, I argue that Clemson, FSU and ND exceed UM's talent; Louisville, Pitt, BC and NCState are on par with UM. This, simply arguing UM talent and a history of playing tough at home are insufficient cause to fret over UM.

No team should ever be taken for granted, but this team has earned the respect of being a decent team and HCDB has more than prov d he is the right man for the job. Still, the game must be played and HCDB will have the team ready for UM.

I respect your opinion, I largely disagree with your conclusion. I recommend that you make a lot at of all attributes you believe are important to CFB games and then check off each as to favor SU or UM. You can weight them, if you like. In the he end, I think you will end up more optimistic than pessimistic.

 

[shu 49]

Ask LSU fans how much they liked Canada, I believe he was the coordinator when they lost to Troy. And we were a 4-8 team they scored 72 points on.

The problem with LSU was Canada ran everything of off jet sweep which opened up all his other stuff. Anyone hiring him should know that. The head coach doesn’t like all that fluffy stuff because he would rather pound it down your throat ala Alabama without all their studs. He needed a little change and if he gave him the reigns instead of holding him back he woulda had the best offense u could have. Also the biggest problem they had is their qb was terrible. How do u think Maryland beat Texas and a few other really stacked teams. Canada was the oc. Again main problem is he is an ass as I have been told multiple times.

 

[cuse45]

One thing to consider about Maryland is their d was pretty bad last year and they lost some key players. I believe they’re switching scheme as well (43 to 34) which is tough at any level of football.

 

[TheCusian]

I think people ragging on S&P+ is funny. There's a few quibbles I have with it as a system, but it's pretty solid.

I like, for example, that it points out what we gave up a lot of big plays on D and that we had a largely inefficient offense last year. And that our schedule featured a down ACC (FSU and Louisville) They are true.

Now, I think we can become a really efficient offense for the first time under Babers with TD and that we might see a jump into the "clearly the 2nd best team in the ACC" category. I think our D might be very good and will clean up the big play issue (though inexperienced LB scare me a touch).

 

[721Comstock]

I think people ragging on S&P+ is funny. There's a few quibbles I have with it as a system, but it's pretty solid.

I like, for example, that it points out what we gave up a lot of big plays on D and that we had a largely inefficient offense last year. And that our schedule featured a down ACC (FSU and Louisville) They are true.

Now, I think we can become a really efficient offense for the first time under Babers with TD and that we might see a jump into the "clearly the 2nd best team in the ACC" category. I think our D might be very good and will clean up the big play issue (though inexperienced LB scare me a touch).

No predictive system is perfect, and it's acceptable to rag on the flaws.
Bill C will freely admit (and has) that S&P+ is really bad for predicting anomalous results - like ours last year.
Which is fine, and completely understandable.

IF recruiting was really so impactful, then teams like FSU, Llvll, and UNC would almost never have losing seasons, since they all recruit consistently very well.
Certainly better than we have done over the past bunch of years.

Yet - here we are, they all sucked last year, and all 3 of them have new coaches now.
(FSU's was new the prior season, of course)

S&P+ is right - We ABSOLUTELY gave up waaaaaay too many big plays on D.
However, most of that was the first half of the year, when the LB's were playing on their heels, rather than attacking, and we ran the 4-2-5 for most of that.
Once we went 4-3, and the LB's started playing upfield, the D improved dramatically.

And our O was most definitely inefficient. Dungey struggled with his throwing for most of the year, with the NCST game as a miraculous passing outlier from him.
He made up for a lot of that with timely running, but as Dino would say "we left a LOT of meat on the bone" in most of our games on O.

 

[bnoro]

No predictive system is perfect, and it's acceptable to rag on the flaws.
Bill C will freely admit (and has) that S&P+ is really bad for predicting anomalous results - like ours last year.
Which is fine, and completely understandable.

IF recruiting was really so impactful, then teams like FSU, Llvll, and UNC would almost never have losing seasons, since they all recruit consistently very well.
Certainly better than we have done over the past bunch of years.

Yet - here we are, they all sucked last year, and all 3 of them have new coaches now.
(FSU's was new the prior season, of course)

S&P+ is right - We ABSOLUTELY gave up waaaaaay too many big plays on D.
However, most of that was the first half of the year, when the LB's were playing on their heels, rather than attacking, and we ran the 4-2-5 for most of that.
Once we went 4-3, and the LB's started playing upfield, the D improved dramatically.

And our O was most definitely inefficient. Dungey struggled with his throwing for most of the year, with the NCST game as a miraculous passing outlier from him.
He made up for a lot of that with timely running, but as Dino would say "we left a LOT of meat on the bone" in most of our games on O.

Very well stated.

If it wasn't for special teams our S&P+ number would be even lower. Our underlying stats on offense were not good last year, we also had a lot of turnover luck on D. Regression to the mean is likely, but I have faith that Dino & Tommy will make our offense look a lot better this season, even if there's regression on turnovers/STs.

 

[skurey]

Hate to be that guy and I'm knocking on wood here but I believe we also had very few injuries last year.

 

[bnoro]

Hate to be that guy and I'm knocking on wood here but I believe we also had very few injuries last year.

Also true. My expectation is another 8 win season (before a bowl). Anything above is gravy, and I still think we're moving in the right direction with 8 wins.

 

[NKR1978]

I think people ragging on S&P+ is funny. There's a few quibbles I have with it as a system, but it's pretty solid.

I like, for example, that it points out what we gave up a lot of big plays on D and that we had a largely inefficient offense last year. And that our schedule featured a down ACC (FSU and Louisville) They are true.

Now, I think we can become a really efficient offense for the first time under Babers with TD and that we might see a jump into the "clearly the 2nd best team in the ACC" category. I think our D might be very good and will clean up the big play issue (though inexperienced LB scare me a touch).

My only issue with stats for college football is the small sample size. 12 games just isn't a lot. That's my issue with S&P as far as a predictive measure. I think it provides a lot of great information though, I just don't think it's predictions are useful.

I'd love to see its season prediction success rate.

 

[Acesn8s]

The S&P is sound for what it is, but it certainly isn’t the end all be all. Last year we had few injuries, lots of lucky bounces and a ridiculous turnover margin, things could go that well or better next year but they could be worse that’s why they play the game... my biggest concern is the offensive line Dungey kept so many plays alive with his feet, I believe Tommy is a far and away better Pro style QB then Dungey, but I worry how bad it could be if the pocket consistently collapses. All that being said I’m ok with 7 regular season wins thrilled with anything more then 8.

 

[nzm136]

ACC Atlantic preview: Welcome to Clemson's world

Can anyone give Clemson a scare? Will Florida State turn things around? What are the expectations for Scott Satterfield at Louisville? We dig into these questions and more in our ACC Atlantic team previews.

www.espn.com

Syracuse Orange
2018 record and rankings: 10-3 (No. 40 in S&P+, No. 28 in FPI)
2019 S&P+ projection: 6.7 wins (No. 56)
2019 FPI projection: 6.7 wins (No. 49)

Strength: A defense that finishes. The Syracuse defense ranked a decent 39th in marginal efficiency last year, but big plays were an issue (106th in marginal explosiveness). One thing was certain, though: The timing was great.

When the Orange had leveraged you behind schedule, they took your head off (16th in passing downs marginal efficiency, 20th in blitz-downs sack rate), and when you entered the red zone, your progress stopped (26th in points allowed per scoring opportunity, 20th in success rate inside the 10). And most of the reasons for that success are back. Ends Alton Robinson and Kendall Coleman make up one of the best duos in the country, and the secondary is loaded with experience. (It also boasts maybe the best sophomore defender in the country in safety Andre Cisco.)

Weakness: An inefficient offense has a new quarterback. Syracuse had its moments on offense -- 56 points per game against early nonconference cupcakes, 500 or more yards six times -- but the Orange were pretty reliant on big plays and great field position for their points. They were inconsistent down for down (76th in marginal efficiency).

It's hard to improve your efficiency when you lose your starting quarterback (who was also your leading rusher), your top receiving target and three starting linemen. But to match last year's 10-win total, Syracuse is going to have to find a way. New starting QB Tommy DeVito was a well-regarded recruit, at least.

Opportunity: A schedule that can absorb a drop-off. Against a schedule that featured only three top-30 opponents (per S&P+), Syracuse racked up wins with what S&P+ saw as a mere top-40 team. It's the same story this time around -- Clemson and FSU are the only opponents projected higher than 47th. Syracuse could fall and still pretty easily win eight games.

Threat: The trickiest possible start for a new QB. Soft as the schedule might be overall, the kickoff is still going to test DeVito. The Orange open with back-to-back road games against Liberty and Maryland, and although Syracuse will be favored in both games, Liberty is going to take a "mid-major with a shot at a huge home upset" home run swing, and Maryland has as much or more athleticism, if not as much proven skill.

After that, Syracuse returns home to face Clemson. There are lots of potential wins on the schedule, but that's still a tricky early road.

IMHO - We were an average offensive team last year, but we have great upside this year. Also, we were a good defensive team, and we should be even better this year.

 

[longislandcuse]

I honestly have no idea what to expect this year. The Maryland game will be a huge litmus test.

If Tommy is legit, Adams/Neal and Jackson/Harris/Riley ball out along with the potential of our DL being realized, well then this is a 10 win team.

If we get banged up early in the season, our young LB’s get exposed and the offense sputters like last year... then wins will be hard to come by as every game will be a toss up and road dogs.

I’m leaning towards us being really good this year, but kind of need to see it before I can feel like I’m being anything more than a homer. One year is a fluke... Two years is a pattern.

 

[Oildrilling]

I think the S&P+ is about as useful as Brian Dohn's recruiting rankings (which, when coming from him, are as useful as a poop flavored lollipop)

 

[shu 49]

The potential is there for the 10-12 win season. We have the weapons on o and the talent on d to make things happen. I’m actually more excited to watch st this year also. I like this team.

 

[kcsu]

This team needs someone to step up at LT. If Tommy has his blind side covered, if he gets time in the pocket, if he doesn't have to run we will destroy some teams. Lets hope that Tisdale and the Transfer step up.

 

[CuseLegacy]

 

[orange79]

Well, at least now they have some motivation...