ACC, PAC-12, and BIG alliance / conference realignment

[HRE Otto IV]

That was part of why I was driving at. Who is to say that we would get to the B12 late? We might be looking at B12 early or B12 never. And that regional conference you discuss would never have West Virginia (B12) and would probably lack Pitt, as they would fit in the B12. So it would be us, BC, UConn, Wake Forest, and a bunch of G5 programs. We would never have a chance at a playoff ever again. Not that we are routinely in the playoffs and would be giving up something tangible. We would just never even have the hope. The conference you propose would be worse than the future Pac conference.

Frankly, I think if it got as bad as the conference you are proposing (especially without Pitt and West Virginia), we might as well go independent like UConn and park our sports in the Big East (if even possible).

There is zero reason to join the B12 without knowing the end game. If the playoff is just the B1G and SEC, what exactly is the point in being in the B12 for any team let alone SU? And why is the B12 a better option than the ACC raiding the B12?

Even if there is access to the playoff, if the team making the playoff is getting the bulk of the share and then we are dividing the rest by 20+ schools, you are left with barely anything. Certainly not enough to cover travel costs for all sports.

On top of that SU has nothing in common with the current B12 schools.


You only jump conferences to improve your situation. Nothing about the B12 improves things for SU, short or long term. We can wait. There will be a seat in the B12 for us if we want one. What is the rush? Heck we don't even know if the B12 will survive.

 

[FloridaCuse]

Maybe. I think it all depends on who gets left behind. If the B1G/SEC are truly looking at this as the prime candidates are Notre Dame and North Carolina... then the optics of taking North Carolina to cause concern about destroying the ACC has to weigh on Notre Dame a bit. I know non-football sports do not matter, but think of what UNC and UVa going to the B1G would do for ACC lacrosse. Down to just Syracuse and Duke. if UNC and Virginia went to the SEC, the ACC would probably let them keep lacrosse with the ACC. But not if they go B1G. I am not sure how this applies across the board. Would the Big East take back Notre Dame's non-football sports? Perhaps. If so, then not much need for ND to join the B1G or SEC. Stay in the ACC until a shift to Big East.

So maybe the B1G takes UNC and Florida State. I am not sure that the SEC has any reason to make a move at all. If so, that leaves Clemson, SMU, Miami, etc. If the SEC beats the B1G to the punch and grabs UNC and Florida State, and the B1G could take Virginia and Clemson... that would be pretty bad., but I am not sure that Georgia Tech and Duke would be immediately necessary grabs for the SEC. So that would leave an ACC with: Miami, SMU, Louisville, Georgia Tech, Duke, Va Tech, NC State, Pitt, Syracuse, BC, Wake Forest, Stanford, and Cal. Not too shabby academically or athletically. Add UConn get to 14. And then let Tulane and Memphis pitch for spot 15 (to encourage Memphis to get its $200M together to fund the ACC) and perhaps (with 15+ND) ESPN keeps the contract in place. With $300M from the exit fees and $200M from Memphis, that is a jolt of funds to the schools remaining.

Frankly, if I am the rest of the ACC, I am approaching Memphis with a deal for them if the forego media rights and pay $300M over 5 years (they offered Memphis $200M). And then the other schools agree to give most of that to FSU and Clemson (and maybe UNC) to agree to let Memphis join AND stay 5 more years after Memphis joins. $60M a year from Memphis supporters could be $15M each to FSU/Clemson, $10M to North Carolina, and $20M to the remaining schools. If the schools agree to that, then the B1G and SEC would need to give full shares for those three schools to lure them away. If they can get full shares and leave, so be it... the funds can be diverted to the remaining teams in the conference. The crappy thing would be any of those schools leaving for partial shares. That makes it too easy for the SEC/B1G to expand.

I think as it looks now the next moves are NC and Clemson to the SEC. And Virginia and (Miami or Ga. Tech or Duke?) to the B1G. Just don't know how soon. Then the question is whether the SEC and B1G want to expand enough more to make it just the P2.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Sal, I agree. If Cuse gets totally left out you do something with a regional conference.

I would also look at rebuilding a Big East Hybrid or look at an east coast version of the PAC12.

That said it really depends on how bad the ACC gets raided. All Cuse can do is to be as strong as possible in FB and BB. The fans need to do their part by showing up to all the games.

My take on UNC is if they leave the ACC it is like when Cuse left the Big East. A seismic change as both were glue schools to the league.

Not so sure UNC is a glue school anymore. When a conference has 18 members it is hard for any school to be that. If the rumored exits happen, there will still likely be 14 schools in the ACC. There are plenty of candidates to backfill (USF, UConn, Utah*, etc).



*did they ever sign the B12 GOR?

 

[HRE Otto IV]

I think as it looks now the next moves are NC and Clemson to the SEC. And Virginia and (Miami or Ga. Tech or Duke?) to the B1G. Just don't know how soon. Then the question is whether the SEC and B1G want to expand enough more to make it just the P2.

I don't think most ACC schools can afford to leave now. Especially if they do not get a full P2 share to start.

Also the B1G and SEC haven't expanded by more than 2 schools at a time thus far. I think both will add 2 ACC schools soon. Then in a few years before their next TV contract they will add some more. That is when I could see them going past 2 at a time.

24 schools is a great number for divisions, scheduling, and national TV coverage. If both went to 24 they would need to add 14 more schools. If we are not in that, whatever is leftover isn't worth being in a national conference with IMO. At that point I rather stay regional and small.

 

[orangecuse]

I don't think most ACC schools can afford to leave now. Especially if they do not get a full P2 share to start.

Also the B1G and SEC haven't expanded by more than 2 schools at a time thus far. I think both will add 2 ACC schools soon. Then in a few years before their next TV contract they will add some more. That is when I could see them going past 2 at a time.

24 schools is a great number for divisions, scheduling, and national TV coverage. If both went to 24 they would need to add 14 more schools. If we are not in that, whatever is leftover isn't worth being in a national conference with IMO. At that point I rather stay regional and small.

I can easily see where, let's just say, the "lessor" schools, Syracuse and the like, would agree to a half share (or something along those lines) long term as well. I mean, what true 'leverage' does a school such as Syracuse University truly have here? Not much at all IMO. And, in any and all negotiations, the end result is always based upon the tilt of the playing field, or leverage one maintains.

In the end, a 50% of something vs. 100% of nothing adage screams for the likes of SU, etc.

 

[Moontan]

Also the B1G and SEC haven't expanded by more than 2 schools at a time thus far. I think both will add 2 ACC schools soon. Then in a few years before their next TV contract they will add some more. That is when I could see them going past 2 at a time.

Th B1G added 4 schools in 2024 (USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Washington).

 

[Archbold44]

Th B1G added 4 schools in 2024 (USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Washington).

2 at a time though.

 

[Archbold44]

There is zero reason to join the B12 without knowing the end game. If the playoff is just the B1G and SEC, what exactly is the point in being in the B12 for any team let alone SU? And why is the B12 a better option than the ACC raiding the B12?

Even if there is access to the playoff, if the team making the playoff is getting the bulk of the share and then we are dividing the rest by 20+ schools, you are left with barely anything. Certainly not enough to cover travel costs for all sports.

On top of that SU has nothing in common with the current B12 schools.


You only jump conferences to improve your situation. Nothing about the B12 improves things for SU, short or long term. We can wait. There will be a seat in the B12 for us if we want one. What is the rush? Heck we don't even know if the B12 will survive.

The B12 is situated better than the ACC because it has value, even though it does not have schools that the SEC/B1G have a real need to take. The ACC's per school value could drop significantly after FSU, Clemson, and UNC leave. I do not see any scenario where the ACC does not become the clear #4.

I might prefer competing with 20 schools for 2 B12 spots vs. competing with 12-14 schools for #1 and then having to be better than the #1 team from every other conference (Boise State, etc.) for the 1 G5 spot. Especially where the revenue gap will only widen.

A B12-ACC merger would be ideal, frankly. They have 16 schools. If UNC/UVA/FSU/Clemson leave... the leftovers of the ACC were to be absorbed in a way that revenue was maintained, that would be 30 schools (with UConn). We would be retaining Pitt, BC, Miami, Va Tech for football. We would be getting West Virginia and UConn back... keeping Duke and Louisville... adding Kansas and Arizona. What is the downside between that and some conference with East Carolina and James Madison? [And if Stanford and Cal are too good for that conference, so be it.] If not, look at the regions:

West: Stanford, Cal, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, BYU
Midwest: Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Louisville, Cincinnati
Central: Texas Tech, Houston, Baylor, TCU, SMU, Oklahoma State
South: Miami, Georgia Tech, Duke, NC State, Wake Forest, UCF
NE: Virginia Tech, West Virginia, Pitt, BC, Syracuse, UConn

Play 5 division opponents, plus one from another division.

Edit: for basketball... we would get a H/A within that divison. And then 8-10 games against other opponents. You have division anchors of Arizona, Kansas, Houston, Duke, and UConn. Not to mention prior national champions in Syracuse, Louisville, NC State, Cincinnati (way back), etc.

 

[TexanMark]

Not so sure UNC is a glue school anymore. When a conference has 18 members it is hard for any school to be that. If the rumored exits happen, there will still likely be 14 schools in the ACC. There are plenty of candidates to backfill (USF, UConn, Utah*, etc).



*did they ever sign the B12 GOR?

I don't think so on the GOR...but the exit fee now applies IIRC.

UNC will become a South Carolina only with more arrogant douchie fans.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

The B12 is situated better than the ACC because it has value, even though it does not have schools that the SEC/B1G have a real need to take. The ACC's per school value could drop significantly after FSU, Clemson, and UNC leave. I do not see any scenario where the ACC does not become the clear #4.

I might prefer competing with 20 schools for 2 B12 spots vs. competing with 12-14 schools for #1 and then having to be better than the #1 team from every other conference (Boise State, etc.) for the 1 G5 spot. Especially where the revenue gap will only widen.

A B12-ACC merger would be ideal, frankly. They have 16 schools. If UNC/UVA/FSU/Clemson leave... the leftovers of the ACC were to be absorbed in a way that revenue was maintained, that would be 30 schools (with UConn). We would be retaining Pitt, BC, Miami, Va Tech for football. We would be getting West Virginia and UConn back... keeping Duke and Louisville... adding Kansas and Arizona. What is the downside between that and some conference with East Carolina and James Madison? [And if Stanford and Cal are too good for that conference, so be it.] If not, look at the regions:

West: Stanford, Cal, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, BYU
Midwest: Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Louisville, Cincinnati
Central: Texas Tech, Houston, Baylor, TCU, SMU, Oklahoma State
South: Miami, Georgia Tech, Duke, NC State, Wake Forest, UCF
NE: Virginia Tech, West Virginia, Pitt, BC, Syracuse, UConn

Play 5 division opponents, plus one from another division.

Edit: for basketball... we would get a H/A within that divison. And then 8-10 games against other opponents. You have division anchors of Arizona, Kansas, Houston, Duke, and UConn. Not to mention prior national champions in Syracuse, Louisville, NC State, Cincinnati (way back), etc.

1. That conference is awful
2. That conference might have 0.0 playoff spots. You don't leave for that.
3. The ACC still could have more value.
4. Most likely 7-8 of those teams you mentioned will end up in the P2. Now that B12 doesn't look the same.

You don't leave the ACC so you can be in a conference that will be worse than the current ACC. Until the dust settles there is no reason to leave.

 

[Janner]

Question for the experts who have been following this stuff, and forgive my lack of knowledge/stupid question, but in a situation where the ACC losses UNC and UVA how bad would that hurt the conference from a monetary standpoint? With the ACCN, would we would still carry (carrage rates?) the state of North Carolina with NCst/Duke/Wake, and Virginia with VT still in the conference? Wouldn't adding 2 teams from current states where there presently is no "coverage" (just throwing team name out there, like Cincy, for Ohio and BYU. There are probably better examples the experts might cite) help to to mitigate any real losses? Losing teams from 2 states we have more teams already in almost feels like the "best worse case scenario". I can understand Losing flagship program hurt but IMHO that feels more like FSU and Clemson (who I understand could also go) than UNC and UVA?

 

[Archbold44]

1. That conference is awful
2. That conference might have 0.0 playoff spots. You don't leave for that.
3. The ACC still could have more value.
4. Most likely 7-8 of those teams you mentioned will end up in the P2. Now that B12 doesn't look the same.

You don't leave the ACC so you can be in a conference that will be worse than the current ACC. Until the dust settles there is no reason to leave.

Awful? Last year, SMU, Arizona State were in... and Miami/BYU could have been in at 16.

 

[Orangefizz]

Worst case scenario. If we get left out of expansion I see us in a conference that looks something like this.

CUSE BC UCONN PITT WV UL UC MEMPHIS USF UCF WF SMU

 

[Archbold44]

Worst case scenario. If we get left out of expansion I see us in a conference that looks something like this.

CUSE BC UCONN PITT WV UL UC MEMPHIS USF UCF WF SMU

Why would West Virginia, Cincinnati, and UCF be leaving the B12?

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Why would West Virginia, Cincinnati, and UCF be leaving the B12?

Whatever is left out is getting a worse TV contract then they currently do. Whatever is left out will likely NOT have access to the playoffs. When you take all the money away, travel makes little to no sense. Why would Utah want to play games in Morgantown? Why would Cincinnati want to play games in Tucson? They put up with it now for money.

 

[Orangefizz]

Why would West Virginia, Cincinnati, and UCF be leaving the B12?

If The money was equal I think they would prefer to be in an East Coast based conference

 

[HouClone]

Question for the experts who have been following this stuff, and forgive my lack of knowledge/stupid question, but in a situation where the ACC losses UNC and UVA how bad would that hurt the conference from a monetary standpoint? With the ACCN, would we would still carry (carrage rates?) the state of North Carolina with NCst/Duke/Wake, and Virginia with VT still in the conference? Wouldn't adding 2 teams from current states where there presently is no "coverage" (just throwing team name out there, like Cincy, for Ohio and BYU. There are probably better examples the experts might cite) help to to mitigate any real losses? Losing teams from 2 states we have more teams already in almost feels like the "best worse case scenario". I can understand Losing flagship program hurt but IMHO that feels more like FSU and Clemson (who I understand could also go) than UNC and UVA?

I think the carriage rates would still apply to NC and VA. Comcast and DirecTV fought back when Stanford, Cal, and SMU were added. ESPN/ACC were trying to apply the whole states of California and Texas to "in-conference". Comcast and DirecTV won where only the areas around the colleges were claimed, not the whole states. But Dallas and San Fran/Oakland area have a lot of subscribers, more than some states by themselves.

 

[HouClone]

Frankly, if I am the rest of the ACC, I am approaching Memphis with a deal for them if the forego media rights and pay $300M over 5 years (they offered Memphis $200M). And then the other schools agree to give most of that to FSU and Clemson (and maybe UNC) to agree to let Memphis join AND stay 5 more years after Memphis joins. $60M a year from Memphis supporters could be $15M each to FSU/Clemson, $10M to North Carolina, and $20M to the remaining schools. If the schools agree to that, then the B1G and SEC would need to give full shares for those three schools to lure them away. If they can get full shares and leave, so be it... the funds can be diverted to the remaining teams in the conference. The crappy thing would be any of those schools leaving for partial shares. That makes it too easy for the SEC/B1G to expand.

Not a bad idea. Taking it a further step, Rice and Tulane could be enticed to do a similar deal. They would fit in well with the ACC academics.

 

[Archbold44]

Whatever is left out is getting a worse TV contract then they currently do. Whatever is left out will likely NOT have access to the playoffs. When you take all the money away, travel makes little to no sense. Why would Utah want to play games in Morgantown? Why would Cincinnati want to play games in Tucson? They put up with it now for money.

Left out of what? The B12 has a contract. The B12 is not losing more than a handful of teams, if any. The B12 has played a better hand than the ACC somehow. Which is part of the reason FSU/Clemson are leaving--the ACC took way too little for TV revenue just to give a deal to Swofford's family members and they are locked in for too many years into the future. If the ACC was able to renegotiate today or even the early 2030s... it would be on stronger footing.

Out of the playoffs? If the SEC/B1G are going to exclude everyone, then it is game over for us anyway. The SEC is proposing a 5+11. If the ACC dissolves into something like the next PAC... it will be a 4+12. The B12 is still in good position for an at large bid for the team that rises to the top of that 16-team conference. If the ACC is merely 13/14 teams... the ACC will be fine. I think we need 15 for ESPN purposes, so we might have to add UConn/Memphis at that point. Or UConn/Tulane potentially. USF perhaps. But even that ACC would not be out of the playoffs.

I just think a combined ACC/B12 could solve a lot of regionality issues. At that point a 4-4-4-1-3 would work for the playoffs also. B12 would get 4 out of 30 teams in, the SEC/B1G would get 4 out of 20. So be it. I consider that very good access to the playoffs.

 

[TexanMark]

I think the carriage rates would still apply to NC and VA. Comcast and DirecTV fought back when Stanford, Cal, and SMU were added. ESPN/ACC were trying to apply the whole states of California and Texas to "in-conference". Comcast and DirecTV won where only the areas around the colleges were claimed, not the whole states. But Dallas and San Fran/Oakland area have a lot of subscribers, more than some states by themselves.

Sacramento is also full carriage IIRC.

 

[TexanMark]

Left out of what? The B12 has a contract. The B12 is not losing more than a handful of teams, if any. The B12 has played a better hand than the ACC somehow. Which is part of the reason FSU/Clemson are leaving--the ACC took way too little for TV revenue just to give a deal to Swofford's family members and they are locked in for too many years into the future. If the ACC was able to renegotiate today or even the early 2030s... it would be on stronger footing.

Out of the playoffs? If the SEC/B1G are going to exclude everyone, then it is game over for us anyway. The SEC is proposing a 5+11. If the ACC dissolves into something like the next PAC... it will be a 4+12. The B12 is still in good position for an at large bid for the team that rises to the top of that 16-team conference. If the ACC is merely 13/14 teams... the ACC will be fine. I think we need 15 for ESPN purposes, so we might have to add UConn/Memphis at that point. Or UConn/Tulane potentially. USF perhaps. But even that ACC would not be out of the playoffs.

I just think a combined ACC/B12 could solve a lot of regionality issues. At that point a 4-4-4-1-3 would work for the playoffs also. B12 would get 4 out of 30 teams in, the SEC/B1G would get 4 out of 20. So be it. I consider that very good access to the playoffs.

If FSU leaves...USF will be added.

Actually USF and Miami will be much more convenient for visiting fans. Tally is tough to get too

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Left out of what? The B12 has a contract. The B12 is not losing more than a handful of teams, if any. The B12 has played a better hand than the ACC somehow. Which is part of the reason FSU/Clemson are leaving--the ACC took way too little for TV revenue just to give a deal to Swofford's family members and they are locked in for too many years into the future. If the ACC was able to renegotiate today or even the early 2030s... it would be on stronger footing.

Out of the playoffs? If the SEC/B1G are going to exclude everyone, then it is game over for us anyway. The SEC is proposing a 5+11. If the ACC dissolves into something like the next PAC... it will be a 4+12. The B12 is still in good position for an at large bid for the team that rises to the top of that 16-team conference. If the ACC is merely 13/14 teams... the ACC will be fine. I think we need 15 for ESPN purposes, so we might have to add UConn/Memphis at that point. Or UConn/Tulane potentially. USF perhaps. But even that ACC would not be out of the playoffs.

I just think a combined ACC/B12 could solve a lot of regionality issues. At that point a 4-4-4-1-3 would work for the playoffs also. B12 would get 4 out of 30 teams in, the SEC/B1G would get 4 out of 20. So be it. I consider that very good access to the playoffs.

The B12 contract is not in perpetuity and is shorter than the ACC's contract. The B12 makes less money than the ACC. The B12 could easily lose what little brands they have left. Which in turn will drive their next TV contract down.

The playoff format for the next 2-3 years won't be the same long term. Why in the heck would the B1G/SEC allow for the B12 and ACC to get auto bids after the B1G/SEC take the top dozen brands left in those conferences? Whatever is left over will look more like the American than the current B12 or ACC. That doesn't get you a seat at the table.

You are taking today's environment and applying it long term. That doesn't work.

 

[Archbold44]

The B12 contract is not in perpetuity and is shorter than the ACC's contract. The B12 makes less money than the ACC. The B12 could easily lose what little brands they have left. Which in turn will drive their next TV contract down.

The playoff format for the next 2-3 years won't be the same long term. Why in the heck would the B1G/SEC allow for the B12 and ACC to get auto bids after the B1G/SEC take the top dozen brands left in those conferences? Whatever is left over will look more like the American than the current B12 or ACC. That doesn't get you a seat at the table.

You are taking today's environment and applying it long term. That doesn't work.

How is the B12 losing brands? I really do not understand what you think is going to happen. You think the B1G and SEC are taking 10-12 teams from each of the B12 and ACC? Why would they do that? This is not a game of RISK where the B1G/SEC each need territories to win the game. They are looking to grow their per-school payouts, not reduce them.

There are 4 schools that add value: ND, UNC, Florida State (probably) and Clemson (maybe). The rest would come on partial shares or not at all. But what point is it to have 20 or 24 teams if that destroys the fabric of your conference?

 

[Toga]

How is the B12 losing brands? I really do not understand what you think is going to happen. You think the B1G and SEC are taking 10-12 teams from each of the B12 and ACC? Why would they do that? This is not a game of RISK where the B1G/SEC each need territories to win the game. They are looking to grow their per-school payouts, not reduce them.

There are 4 schools that add value: ND, UNC, Florida State (probably) and Clemson (maybe). The rest would come on partial shares or not at all. But what point is it to have 20 or 24 teams if that destroys the fabric of your conference?

Risk is the best board game ever. But I digress.

 

[Orangefizz]

The B12 contract is not in perpetuity and is shorter than the ACC's contract. The B12 makes less money than the ACC. The B12 could easily lose what little brands they have left. Which in turn will drive their next TV contract down.

The playoff format for the next 2-3 years won't be the same long term. Why in the heck would the B1G/SEC allow for the B12 and ACC to get auto bids after the B1G/SEC take the top dozen brands left in those conferences? Whatever is left over will look more like the American than the current B12 or ACC. That doesn't get you a seat at the table.

You are taking today's environment and applying it long term. That doesn't work.

I would expect Kansas Colorado Arizona and Arizona State to depart the BIG 12 if the SEC decides to go WEST and expand their conference to 24 teams.

I’d expect UNC UVA/VT Clemson and Duke/NCST to be new members in the SEC EAST