ACC, PAC-12, and BIG alliance / conference realignment

[HRE Otto IV]

Not sure how old this is but found it interesting. I think that would give an indication of who else the B16 would consider.

This leaves 10 universities that are R1 private, but not AAU.

Baylor University
Boston College
Drexel University
George Washington University
Georgetown University
Northeastern University
Syracuse University
University of Denver
University of Miami
University of Notre Dame

Predicting the next AAU members « XJMR

www.econjobrumors.com

 

[HRE Otto IV]

The only reason I know this is because my niece's boyfriend was thinking about going to Baylor (which is in Houston, not Waco) for medical school and I asked my doctor (who went to Baylor Med) about it:

"In 1969, by mutual agreement, the College separated from Baylor University to become an independent institution. This encouraged broader, nonsectarian support and provided access to federal research funding. The institution's name changed to Baylor College of Medicine." Source

Ah, ok count them out.

The fact that the B16 didn’t add Oklahoma as a carrot to get Texas I think says a lot about FSU’s chances.

 

[shantydaze]

big 12 being better positioned is debatable

How many big name defections can a P5 conference back fill with G5 schools before it becomes a G5 conference itself?

The only reason the XII has more stability than the ACC is that there are no more teams in the conference that the B1G or SEC would want to poach.

 

[Chris02M]

How many big name defections can a P5 conference back fill with G5 schools before it becomes a G5 conference itself?

The only reason the XII has more stability than the ACC is that there are no more teams in the conference that the B1G or SEC would want to poach.

Yea and our acc contract requires espn to pay an equivalent rate that everyone is getting now no matter who the addition is

 

[HouClone]

How many big name defections can a P5 conference back fill with G5 schools before it becomes a G5 conference itself?

The only reason the XII has more stability than the ACC is that there are no more teams in the conference that the B1G or SEC would want to poach.

They have 1 long time G5 - Houston. Cincinnati, West Virginia, and UCF were in the Big East (along with Syracuse). TCU dominated the Mountain West and Utah prior to joining the Big 12. BYU was independent.

Yep, the Big 12 got a head start on backfilling. If the ACC loses their 2-3 brands, they'll be in the same boat but much worse. Pac has 2 brands, an emerging brand in Utah, and then in trouble.

Though years away, "Welcome to the club" signs will be distributed to the non-brands in the P5.

 

[longtimefan]

The Oklahoma thing is why I don’t think FSU gets an invite.

Giving Baylor’s med funding I wonder if they would qualify for AAU.

Baylor's medical school is located in Houston. That may make a difference.

 

[Toga]

What's happening re the SU medical school that was program specific to veterans?

 

[Nick44]

This thread gets more and more depressing.

 

[Sherman20]

I thought for awhile that the ACC should have added UCF. And to a lessor extent Cincy. They would not have increased the ACC payout but supposedly they would not have taken away from the payout. The main reason to add them is stability. Now that they are headed to the B12, the ACC is left having weak potential replacements should they lose schools. Now the B12 is better positioned going forward. If there was no risk short term, and adding them helped long term, shouldn't the ACC have pulled the trigger?

In hindsight the same thing happened with Rutgers. Had the ACC grabbed them, does the B16 take Maryland still? Who is the 2nd team? Both might be in the ACC right now.

And I think the same thing is about to happen with UConn. For the long term ACC, I think adding UConn is a smart thing. They don't move the needle short term, but losing them to the B12 shouldn't be an option.

The B12 commish seems to think that BBall is under valued. If that is the case why not kill off the Big East which creates less TV $ competition and makes the ACC the only Eastern BBall league of note. Take UConn all sports, and Georgetown/Nova/St Johns for non FB. You can play everyone once in BBall plus two rivals a 2nd time. Wouldn't that create a slight bump from ESPN?

Then convince ND to agree to a 6th FB game. That allows everyone to play both home and away over 5 years (better than the current 6 years). That extra game gives ESPN control over 3 ND games per year. That has to give a slight bump.

I think doing both of the above would keep the ACC a clear #3 and make it less likely for B12 defections.

I’m 100 percent with you on adding teams to block other conferences and to backfill in case you do have defections. They should have added UConn or RU originally. They should do that now. They should have added Cincy, UCF and/or
Houston. Now the ACC should go for a west coast flank with Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Arizona and ASU. The ACC needs to block the Big 12.

 

[Bryanw1995]

I’m curious what the rank is for Georgia Tech? I think the BIG would be interested in the Yellow Jackets to get into ATL and GA recruiting to go along with UVA UNC and MIAMI. This would give the BIG a presence throughout the east coast with NYC/NJ, DC, ATL, and MIAMI

Georgia Tech: Not Flagship, are AAU, #44 USN&WR, 55-62 ARWU. Average SAT is 1465. One of my daughter's good friend is a graduating Senior this year with a top 1% rank in an elite public school (in Texas) and a 1570 SAT, he got wait listed at GT and was accepted at Cornell and Duke. Their numbers are, if anything, misleadingly poor. They'd be very similar Academically to the very best of the B1G.

They're actually pretty similar to Cal Academically in that the B1G leadership would look for excuses to invite them rather than looking for excuses to NOT invite them like they do with most schools. Is that enough for GT? They're not a Flagship like Cal, and they're athletically and fan-enthusiasm level on a similar level to Cal (ie, not very much of any of that stuff). I'd say that Cal is a stretch but a possible invite if they go past 20, and GT is in a similar spot to Cal but definitely a lower-priority target. GT probably needs a 24-28 team B1G to get serious consideration.

GT is outside the top 7 P2 targets in the ACC, though whether they're #8 or #11, I couldn't say.

 

[Bryanw1995]

WSU will likely go to the MWC with Oregon St and possibly Utah if the PAC gets absorbed by the BIG and B12/SEC

Utah wouldn't like it much but they'd choose the big 12 over the MWC. A lot has been made about their alleged antipathy to the big 12, but I think that it's more about enthusiasm for the B1G b/c they feel like they have a real shot to get in. They might be right, they might not, though I'd definitely rank 4 current Pac schools and 7 current ACC schools higher than Utah if I were making up a list for the B1G today.

 

[Bryanw1995]

Nebraska was AAU at the time the invite was extended. As others have pointed out, they were voted out as the AAU changed its research funding metrics by devaluing agricultural research. There have been some rumors that UNL was pushing for the medical school to be placed under the UNL umbrella to regain its AAU status (I believe it is similar to Upstate, which is a SUNY school of its own and not part of another SUNY school), but I do not think that plan is moving forward.

From a football power standpoint, I agree that it did not work out, but I recall Husker fans thought UNL was going to come into the B1G and dominate. They did make it to one BTCG (back in the Leaders/Legends days) where Wisconsin destroyed them. From a cultural standpoint, I think they fit in to the B1G well. Well, at least the culture before the conference added Rutgers, Maryland, USC, and UCLA (and Penn State).



Rumor was that UT and OU talked to the B1G about an invite. The B1G indicated it would take UT, but not OU and, as a result, OUT reached out to the SEC. If true (and I understand it is a big "if"), it shows the limits of an exception the conference would make to get into Texas.

I've heard that same rumor, but never heard any confirmation from my OU, UT, or B1G sources. I think that it's speculation because OU always preferred the SEC and never reached out to the B1G. It probably would have been a coin toss whether OU gets an invite if it came up for a vote. They knew they'd make a lot more money in either of the P2, and they also knew that they'd have a better shot at National Titles in the SEC.

 

[shantydaze]

They have 1 long time G5 - Houston. Cincinnati, West Virginia, and UCF were in the Big East (along with Syracuse). TCU dominated the Mountain West and Utah prior to joining the Big 12. BYU was independent. . . .

The AAC is no longer a P5 conference, so just because it was at one time with different membership does not mean Cincy or UCF can be considered P5 equivalents (prior to joining the XII).

 

[Bryanw1995]

The Oklahoma thing is why I don’t think FSU gets an invite.

Giving Baylor’s med funding I wonder if they would qualify for AAU.

FSU is a LOT better Academically than OU, and their President is a Harvard guy. FSU also is in a whole lot more desirable location than OU. However, FSU can't bring UT with them. Would it be enough to thwart the SEC and get a foothold in Florida? I lean towards yes but I'm uncertain.

FSU is a lot like A&M but without the AAU. We even have the same average SAT and very similar Academic rankings. I'm very confident that the B1G would want A&M (though we would never leave the SEC so the point is moot), so I think that it would come down to just how important "AAU" standing is.

If there was confirmation that OU was actually turned down by the B1G then I might feel differently about FSU's chances, but in the absence of such we're left guessing.

 

[Bryanw1995]

I am not convinced all the speculation about FSU getting a B1G invite wasn't started by the FSU and run with by the media. Based on previous rumors, the ACC candidates for B1G membership has always been UNC and UVA, with GT being discussed more recently.



Clemson, yes, but maybe for FSU. Keep in mind that FSU turned down the SEC to join the ACC. One of the reasons (supposedly) for its choice to join the ACC was because FSU though it would raise its academic profile as the ACC is the better league academically. The money between the B1G and the SEC is close enough that FSU would be able to choose between academics or geography. While I believe geography will be the choice, I do not believe it is certain.

Bobby Bowden stated flatly in 2015 on Finebaum that they joined the ACC because it offered an easier path to the National Title. If they were in LA and it was going to be 2500 miles to any school from either Conference then I think they'd still lean 95% to the SEC b/c they care more about winning than anything else (even Academics). With them smack dab in the middle of SEC country, it's more like 99.999% unless the SEC passes for some reason.

 

[Bryanw1995]

How many big name defections can a P5 conference back fill with G5 schools before it becomes a G5 conference itself?

The only reason the XII has more stability than the ACC is that there are no more teams in the conference that the B1G or SEC would want to poach.

That's certainly ONE reason, and it's a big one. However, the fact that they were able to secure $31.6m per year in the current choppy economic climate with a bunch of left-behinds and g5 callups speaks to the depth of the big 12. You don't have to worry that Wake Forest or Oregon St have a great year and kill the CCG ratings in the big 12, they're basically interchangeable. Their deal isn't too far behind the ACC's ($5m? $10m maybe?) right now, and there's a decent chance that they pass the ACC up by 2031.

The ACC has FSU, Clemson and UNC, but you guy also have WF and BC. Subtract those 3 from the top, don't even take out any other schools, and the new big 12 is a good distance ahead of the ACC. If you guys had grabbed UCF, Cincinnati and UH while they were available? Maybe WV, too? Things would be different. However, a lot of the ACC Presidents think like B1G and Pac Presidents, and they sometimes put such a high priority on the right Academic fits that they inadvertently hurt the Athletics part of their "Athletics Conferences".

Interestingly, and contrary to popular opinion, the big 12 and SEC also consider Academics, we're just more apt to make an exception for an elite Athletic school. Memphis was flat out told that their Academics were too poor for the big 12, and they're working diligently on that as we speak. The SEC allegedly only considers Athletics, yet 3 of our 4 adds in the past 13 years have been AAU, more than doubling our total number of AAU schools.

 

[Bryanw1995]

This thread gets more and more depressing.

Don't get down on things, you guys will land on your feet with a lot of other ACC schools regardless of whether it all goes down tomorrow, 2036, or anywhere in between.

 

[Bryanw1995]

I’m 100 percent with you on adding teams to block other conferences and to backfill in case you do have defections. They should have added UConn or RU originally. They should do that now. They should have added Cincy, UCF and/or
Houston. Now they should go for a west coast flank with Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Arizona and ASU. The ACC needs to block the Big 12.

I bet that Phillips is right now feverishly working on a full or nearly full ACC-Pac merger. His issue is the Secret 7. He knows their price (freedom) for their votes, and it's too steep. Could things change? Absolutely. Especially if it's just 2 or 4 departures instead of 7+, even more so if UW and UO get a final stiff-arm from the B1G and have to regroup with plan B. I think they'd rather join the ACC and take a bunch of 3k mile flights than join the "truck stop" big 12 (not my phrase but it is a funny one).

The best solution is to just skip the foreplay and get right to the main course. Give everybody a 1 time "join the P2" free pass. Both of the P2 go to ~ 20, and everyone left forms 1 x 28 team Conference 3. Everybody wins in that scenario. BC, WF, Oregon St all get enhanced stability and similar revenues to what they would have earned without any moves. FSU, UNC, Clemson, etc etc get the magic p2 invites then get whomped on for a decade or 2. The P2 schools get some new easy W's every season, well except for that nasty Clemson game ofc. And ESPN gets a true National Reach for the New ACC with their ACCN. It would probably be more big than ACC or Pac, and the HQ would probably be in Irving instead of NC, but does that really matter all that much if your new Conference has a whole lot of your old Conference mates in it?

 

[HouClone]

The AAC is no longer a P5 conference, so just because it was at one time with different membership does not mean Cincy or UCF can be considered P5 equivalents (prior to joining the XII).

Not every G5 team is the same as another, same with P5. Alabama, Boston College, and Colorado are all P5. P5 is the only commonality. 2 years ago the G5 Cincinnati team, that had 7 NFL draft picks, would have won the ACC. Houston and UCF have been to multiple BCS bowls.

 

[kcsu]

Nobody is going anyplace

 

[HouClone]

I’m 100 percent with you on adding teams to block other conferences and to backfill in case you do have defections. They should have added UConn or RU originally. They should do that now. They should have added Cincy, UCF and/or
Houston. Now they should go for a west coast flank with Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Arizona and ASU. The ACC needs to block the Big 12.

Big 12 is not going to invite Stanford. The Big 12's teams fill their stadiums. Stanford is not a fit.

Stanford-Arizona State October 2022. Stanford's homecoming game.

 

[elimunelson]

Nobody is going anyplace

The money is too huge for there to be any movement. ND is the only wildcard because they can do things without financial considerations as the main reason

A majority of ACC schools want it to work and flourish. Doesn’t mean they wouldn’t leave for more money but it’s irrelevant argument since Syracuse won’t be invited to BIG anyway.

Everyone loves a good story.

 

[Cuse'91]

Nobody is going anyplace

Like never, ever ever ever? I realize there's no guarantees in life, so any of us would be lucky to see 2036, but it's not that far off. Since teams usually leave one or two years before the end of the GOR, that leaves 10 years left. 10 years in relation to an educational institution, isn't exactly forever.

 

[Hoo's That]

If you don't have a tie-in with a medical school, your days of an AAU are numbered. Government research has greatly shifted the past 15 years to medical versus agricultural, etc. It is unclear how some schools get that tie-in. Nebraska couldn't claim the medical school anymore as it wasn't "on campus". But I believe Penn State's is not on campus.

Penn State's Med School is in Hershey.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

FSU is a LOT better Academically than OU, and their President is a Harvard guy. FSU also is in a whole lot more desirable location than OU. However, FSU can't bring UT with them. Would it be enough to thwart the SEC and get a foothold in Florida? I lean towards yes but I'm uncertain.

FSU is a lot like A&M but without the AAU. We even have the same average SAT and very similar Academic rankings. I'm very confident that the B1G would want A&M (though we would never leave the SEC so the point is moot), so I think that it would come down to just how important "AAU" standing is.

If there was confirmation that OU was actually turned down by the B1G then I might feel differently about FSU's chances, but in the absence of such we're left guessing.

But Miami is there too as well. They seem like a better fit for multiple reasons.