ACC, PAC-12, and BIG alliance / conference realignment | Page 89 | Syracusefan.com

ACC, PAC-12, and BIG alliance / conference realignment

I know this is all hindsight now, but this ACC deal has to be top 5 worst deals to ever be signed in human history right?

1. Indians that sold manhattan to the white man
2. ACC Media Rights deal
3. Guy that left the beatles?
3. That cofounder of Apple that sold out early for like $500
4. Facebook founder pushed out in Social Network
Look at today's media landscape. The Pac can't even get ESPN to offer up more than $200m these days. What kind of deal would the ACC get if you went on the open market right now?

On a related note, I read today that there's trouble with the B1G media rights deal, which was allegedly agreed to 9 months ago but has not actually been finalized. I think that every conference would get a worse deal today if we all renegotiated, including the ACC.
 
Nebraska’s rank when they accepted the B1G invite was around 100. Plus, the diagram leaves out all of the B1G variables except the internet-three. Anyone who thinks the B1G isn’t more strategic than the three variables is mistaken.
Really? Let's look at every school they've added in the past 30 years:

PSU: Flagship. AAU. Only #77 in USN&WR, but B1G admins look more closely at ARWU. #40-54 in that category
Nebraska: Flagship. AAU (since kicked out thanks to MIchigan and Wisconsin voting to remove them in a tight vote). 151 in USN&WR, but 63-85 in ARWU, the same as Iowa. Barely made Academic cut.
Rutgers: Flaship. AAU. 55 usn&wr, 40-54 ARWU.
Maryland: Flagship. AAU. 55 USN&WR, 28 ARWU.
USC: Private so they can't be a flagship. #25 USN&WR, #31 ARWU. One of the top non-Ivy Private schools in the World
UCLA: co-Flagship. 20 usn&wr. 11 ARWU (and #13 in the World). 11 basketball championships most all time.

Everyone was a Flagship or co-Flagship except Private USC. Everyone was AAU. All but Nebraska truly Academically Elite, and Nebraska brought plenty of other good, desirable things like a huge Brand with top 10 attendance and 3 recent National Titles (all within 16 years of joining the B1G).

Anyone the B1G is looking at today had better be a Flagship, ND, or at least a co-Flagship like UCLA or MIchigan St. They'd better be AAU, or at least academically Elite. Preferably both, but there can be certain exceptions: again looking at ND, they're #18 in USN&WR and a strong Tier 2 school just below the Ivies, Caltech, MIT and Duke, avg SAT is 1475. I haven't gotten confirmation of this, but many of us have openly speculated that the B1G wouldn't consider even mighty OU due to their perceived Academic inferiority. I don't know if that's true or not, but Nebraska is clearly superior to OU Academically, and their Football Brand was at least as good in2010 as OU's is today.

Let's look at a few current ACC schools from the Secret 7 based upon this historical B1G criteria.

UNC: Flagship. AAU. 29 USN&WR, 20 ARWU. Brings a new State. Top 5 basketball Brand. A rich man's Maryland, they're, ahem, a slam dunk.
FSU: co-Flagship in big state. Not AAU. 55 USN&WR, 63-85 ARWU. Used to be good at football.
Clemson: co-Flagship. Not AAU. 77 USN&WR. 147-157 ARWU. Big brand is similar to Nebraska's from 2010.
Miami: Private with great history of Success, much like USC's. Not AAU. 55 USN&WR, 63-85 ARWU. Done squat in 20 years, however, no Conference titles and only 1 division title since joining the ACC.
UVA: Flagship. AAU. #25 USN&WR, 63-85 ARWU. Solid in basketball, won title a few years ago, not so much in football.

UNC passes the smell test for the B1G, they're a far better version of Maryland. UVA passes the smell test, too, they're very similar to Maryland. The rest? 11 football Titles and a Dream. 1, or all, of those other 3 could get a B1G invite, and neither would surprise me in the slightest. None of the 3 look better on paper today than Nebraska did in 2010, Nebraska was an AAU Flagship with 3 titles in the past 16 years, that's as many as Clemson, Miami and FSU all have combined, in the past 16 years, and 1 more AAU than they all 3 have combined, too.
 
big 12 being better positioned is debatable
The big 12 didn't just have 7 members form a secret cabal with an intent to leave the Conference. I think I'd rather be in their shoes than the ACC's right now.
 
The idea of Oregon (U.S. News ranking 105) stepping over many, many more academically qualified schools kind of destroys the academic reputation angle. I agree, many B1G grads I know/have known are proud of the general academic reputation, but accepting UNL and now pursing Oregon seems to lessen the impact academic reputation plays in B1G decisions.

SU is non-AAU and was on the B1G target list and ahead of Rutgers. Clearly ND would be an exception to the AAU.
Oregon is a cut below Nebraska and Iowa at the bottom of the B1G in ARWU, though significantly ahead of Nebraska in USN&WR. We could call that a draw. They're a Flagship AAU school, both of which are starting to get in very short supply, and their Athletic Brand is very strong. I wouldn't call them a "shoe-in" (sorry I had to), but they won't get blocked for Academic reasons. Oregon also has Geography on their side, they're a new market and they're a perfect companion for Top Tier Target Washington.

As for the "many, many more Academically qualified schools", how many of them are AAU Flagships or co-Flagships? Cal? They don't bring the cheddar, everyone knows that UCLA is the Athletic Flagship in that State. UNC and Washington are both top tier, they're getting invites, while UVA is very similar to Maryland and probably gets an invite. Are there any others in the Pac/Big 12/ACC that are Flagship AAU and also clearly superior Academically to Oregon? Utah is the only 1 I can think of, but they're a Flagship in name only, they're 2nd fiddle in their own (small) state to BYU.

Think of Academics as a disqualifying factor rather than THE REASON the B1G wants to send you that golden ticket. If you're not a Flagship AAU, if you don't have a very strong Athletic Brand that will bring ~ $70m a year worth of value to a Conference, then you could be Harvard or Yale Academically and you're not getting an invite. Interestingly enough, Stanford is the ideal test case for this standard. Top half Ivy Academically, all-time dominant in Olympic Sports and the Sears trophy rankings, but their Brand is probably half the average of the new B1G contract. Will tOSU eat a couple million a year for the distinction of associating with Stanford, or would they rather associate with a Flagship AAU state school like Oregon that doesn't cost them any money and might even make them a little bit?
 
It's understandable to be angry at FSU, but they're getting an invite from both the SEC and B1G the minute they're available. They're one of the very few schools that both Conferences desire.

Your other posts make the case as to why the B16 will NOT invite FSU. You are contradicting yourself.

I don’t doubt ESPN would be for FSU to the SEC. But if you are the SEC why agree? Florida doesn’t want them. The schools that recruit Florida don’t want them. For non FB sports and your fans it is a PIA to get to.

Compared to the reset of the SEC they are nouveau riche. The SEC already has a ton of FB brands. FSU attendance stunk after Jimbo left. Jimbo left because the AD is misrun and they are behind in facilities. Oh and Miami is a better choice too.

They are in no way a (free) shoe in for an SEC invite.
 
So I haven't been paying full attention, but David Hale's twitter series made it all clear for me. It's probably been said in one of the convos here but I missed it. I have wondered, and asked here, why it matters that a school gets $40M in conference revenue vs., say $60M. What the hell is a school going to do with that extra $20M? How much extraneous crap can you build to entice 18-year-old football youths? The facilities arms race has been a smarmy work-around to not being able to pay players directly. But there has to be a limiting effect, right? At some point the expenditures have to invite laughter and scrutiny. What can't you do with $40M, such that you NEED, OHMYGOD I NEED IT, $60M?

Hale's comments laid it out: the conferences and schools are (1) already defying the rules and using school money to fuel NIL, but more importantly, in fact game-over-ly, they are all preparing for a Supreme Court ruling that schools can pay athletes directly. At which point the boosters and NIL become chump change, and the networks determine which schools will succeed and which won't.

The sport is dead unless a comprehensive league is formed. Network money ruined it as it existed, even with the back-channel cheating of old. And a league? Meh. How is a formalized league going to handle NIL on the side?
You present reasonable questions.

Though you can never completely eradicate corruption, good
leadership keeps it under control. Presently, the NCAA has a puppy in control, he does exactly what the universities in power want him to do. He has no back bone of his own.

I see several avenues to follow, there are probably more.

1) Continue the march. Allow the same old same old to continue. This is self destructive and not good for anyone. Few are exercising self restraint or discipline.
2) Clean up the NCAA. This is difficult as certain groups have too much influence, that is how the NCAA became so weak.
3) Form a new oversight organization. This more difficult as schools have to leave the NCAA to do so and the present powers will not voluntarily do so.
4) Let the federal government step in. This is the worst idea as the courts are not designed to manage organizations, the lgislature is as biased as the fan base, and the executive is guaranteed perturb at least half the country. Plus, this is likely the most expensive route as an onerous oversized organization with many useless drones will run the show. It may work for a time but is destined to make us long for the present NCAA as the better option.

Number 2 is the right way to go. Self control, which is seriously lacking in the P5 and in the networks is pitiful.

While I an generally a free market person, I recognize that oligopolies need to exercise more self restraint than most organizations. Follow the model of all pro sports which share equally in the main revenue source, broadcast rights. Even the losers get paid to keep enough balance for fan interest. The individual teams can make more money based on performance and fan loyalties.

At this time, too many individuals think they can squeeze every fan into a few select teams but fail to realize most fans only care about their team or teams. Otherwise, any competitive game will suffice. It’s like grabbing a handful of sand, if you hold loosely you can hold more sand. However, the tighter your grip on the sand, the less sand you can hold.
 
Your other posts make the case as to why the B16 will NOT invite FSU. You are contradicting yourself.

I don’t doubt ESPN would be for FSU to the SEC. But if you are the SEC why agree? Florida doesn’t want them. The schools that recruit Florida don’t want them. For non FB sports and your fans it is a PIA to get to.

Compared to the reset of the SEC they are nouveau riche. The SEC already has a ton of FB brands. FSU attendance stunk after Jimbo left. Jimbo left because the AD is misrun and they are behind in facilities. Oh and Miami is a better choice too.

They are in no way a (free) shoe in for an SEC invite.
FSU and Clemson certainly wouldn't hurt the SEC, money wise. Also, this would insure SEC dominance in the region; and, destroy the ACC, the only real competition in the South. No brainer.
 
FSU and Clemson certainly wouldn't hurt the SEC, money wise. Also, this would insure SEC dominance in the region; and, destroy the ACC, the only real competition in the South. No brainer.
Clemson wasn’t a threat until recently. Neither school will be able to keep up making half as much money. Long term neither are a big threat. SEC can dominate without them.
 
You present reasonable questions.

Though you can never completely eradicate corruption, good
leadership keeps it under control. Presently, the NCAA has a puppy in control, he does exactly what the universities in power want him to do. He has no back bone of his own.

I see several avenues to follow, there are probably more.

1) Continue the march. Allow the same old same old to continue. This is self destructive and not good for anyone. Few are exercising self restraint or discipline.
2) Clean up the NCAA. This is difficult as certain groups have too much influence, that is how the NCAA became so weak.
3) Form a new oversight organization. This more difficult as schools have to leave the NCAA to do so and the present powers will not voluntarily do so.
4) Let the federal government step in. This is the worst idea as the courts are not designed to manage organizations, the lgislature is as biased as the fan base, and the executive is guaranteed perturb at least half the country. Plus, this is likely the most expensive route as an onerous oversized organization with many useless drones will run the show. It may work for a time but is destined to make us long for the present NCAA as the better option.

Number 2 is the right way to go. Self control, which is seriously lacking in the P5 and in the networks is pitiful.

While I an generally a free market person, I recognize that oligopolies need to exercise more self restraint than most organizations. Follow the model of all pro sports which share equally in the main revenue source, broadcast rights. Even the losers get paid to keep enough balance for fan interest. The individual teams can make more money based on performance and fan loyalties.

At this time, too many individuals think they can squeeze every fan into a few select teams but fail to realize most fans only care about their team or teams. Otherwise, any competitive game will suffice. It’s like grabbing a handful of sand, if you hold loosely you can hold more sand. However, the tighter your grip on the sand, the less sand you can hold.
Well said Grasshopper.
 
FSU and Clemson certainly wouldn't hurt the SEC, money wise. Also, this would insure SEC dominance in the region; and, destroy the ACC, the only real competition in the South. No brainer.
Yes. The SEC will add as many teams as they have to in order to keep the B1G out of their recruiting grounds.
 
You can't have a division that big and play the entire conference enough that the networks would be happy. The appeal of a national conference is having an increase in intersectional games. If we are playing 7 games in division, that leaves 2 games to play the other 16 teams in conference. So we would be playing teams once every 8 years and once every 16 years in the Dome.

On top of that Louisville and Cincy aren't really Eastern, and UCF we have no history with. Don't see the appeal as an SU fan.

If the ACC blows up in the near term, the Big 12 is the only option and the Big 12 will have plenty of schools from the ACC asking for a spot. (I would bet Louisville and maybe some other schools have put out feelers.) Syracuse is not getting an invite from the SEC or Big 10, so the choices would be an AAC like conference or Big East and indy football. Neither is a good option.
 
If the ACC blows up in the near term, the Big 12 is the only option and the Big 12 will have plenty of schools from the ACC asking for a spot. (I would bet Louisville and maybe some other schools have put out feelers.) Syracuse is not getting an invite from the SEC or Big 10, so the choices would be an AAC like conference or Big East and indy football. Neither is a good option.
We might end up in the B12 but the division won’t be more than 4-5 teams
 
Your other posts make the case as to why the B16 will NOT invite FSU. You are contradicting yourself.

I don’t doubt ESPN would be for FSU to the SEC. But if you are the SEC why agree? Florida doesn’t want them. The schools that recruit Florida don’t want them. For non FB sports and your fans it is a PIA to get to.

Compared to the reset of the SEC they are nouveau riche. The SEC already has a ton of FB brands. FSU attendance stunk after Jimbo left. Jimbo left because the AD is misrun and they are behind in facilities. Oh and Miami is a better choice too.

They are in no way a (free) shoe in for an SEC invite.
Yeah, I contradict myself a lot, or at least I can have 2 contradictory opinions at the same time.

FSU is a conundrum, all speculation about them going to the B1G requires them to change their previous criteria for accepting new schools, and it requires the SEC to decide that we don't want them. I think it's reasonable to assume that the B1G will be willing to expand their criteria for the right schools, but it's far from certain. I don't think that they even know right now, they're turning over half their Presidents and their Commissioner over a 3 year period, in addition to integrating USCLA.

Anyway, it's a moot point. FSU and Clemson are certain to join the SEC the minute they're able, barring some sort of seismic shift in the CFB landscape. You can make a case for either of the P2 for several other ACC schools, and that's where the really interesting discussions lie.
 
Clemson wasn’t a threat until recently. Neither school will be able to keep up making half as much money. Long term neither are a big threat. SEC can dominate without them.
Clemson is the Nebraska of the East Coast. They won a title in '81, maintained huge fan support despite an up and down 30 years, then they took off on an historic 10 year run recently. Their fan support is FAR higher than any other non-p5 school. They make FSU look like a very little brother when it comes to fan support in fact.

Can we dominate without either FSU or Clemson? Yes, we have won 13 of the last 17 National Titles without them. Will we push them to join? No. Will we accept them if they request an invite? Yes.
 
We might end up in the B12 but the division won’t be more than 4-5 teams
I actually think that the ACC loses a few teams (2? 6? who knows?), then the rest merge with the big 12. It will be billed as all the big 12 schools joining the ACC, however, so that the combined entity can use and expand the ACCN. That's an extra, what, $5-10m per team? ESPN wins b/c they delay the inevitable decline and demise of their cable $$. The ACC schools win b/c they achieve added stability by ensuring their place in the top tier pecking order. The big 12 wins b/c they really absorb the ACC instead of vice versa, and both Conferences now get Yormark Time.

The biggest complication in this scenario is the Pac. What happens there? If they hold together until 2030 or so then a big 12/ACC merger is on. If the Pac splits and 4-6 of them join the big 12, it's possible that the combined new big 18 decides to hold off on integrating another 8-10 ACC schools.
 
If the ACC blows up in the near term, the Big 12 is the only option and the Big 12 will have plenty of schools from the ACC asking for a spot. (I would bet Louisville and maybe some other schools have put out feelers.) Syracuse is not getting an invite from the SEC or Big 10, so the choices would be an AAC like conference or Big East and indy football. Neither is a good option.
Yormark LOVES basketball. I think he'd take Syracuse if you guys asked. And with Louisville, Pitt, WV, Cincinnati, and UConn also in the mix, it's not like you'd be out on an island.
 
Really? Let's look at every school they've added in the past 30 years:

PSU: Flagship. AAU. Only #77 in USN&WR, but B1G admins look more closely at ARWU. #40-54 in that category
Nebraska: Flagship. AAU (since kicked out thanks to MIchigan and Wisconsin voting to remove them in a tight vote). 151 in USN&WR, but 63-85 in ARWU, the same as Iowa. Barely made Academic cut.
Rutgers: Flaship. AAU. 55 usn&wr, 40-54 ARWU.
Maryland: Flagship. AAU. 55 USN&WR, 28 ARWU.
USC: Private so they can't be a flagship. #25 USN&WR, #31 ARWU. One of the top non-Ivy Private schools in the World
UCLA: co-Flagship. 20 usn&wr. 11 ARWU (and #13 in the World). 11 basketball championships most all time.

Everyone was a Flagship or co-Flagship except Private USC. Everyone was AAU. All but Nebraska truly Academically Elite, and Nebraska brought plenty of other good, desirable things like a huge Brand with top 10 attendance and 3 recent National Titles (all within 16 years of joining the B1G).

Anyone the B1G is looking at today had better be a Flagship, ND, or at least a co-Flagship like UCLA or MIchigan St. They'd better be AAU, or at least academically Elite. Preferably both, but there can be certain exceptions: again looking at ND, they're #18 in USN&WR and a strong Tier 2 school just below the Ivies, Caltech, MIT and Duke, avg SAT is 1475. I haven't gotten confirmation of this, but many of us have openly speculated that the B1G wouldn't consider even mighty OU due to their perceived Academic inferiority. I don't know if that's true or not, but Nebraska is clearly superior to OU Academically, and their Football Brand was at least as good in2010 as OU's is today.

Let's look at a few current ACC schools from the Secret 7 based upon this historical B1G criteria.

UNC: Flagship. AAU. 29 USN&WR, 20 ARWU. Brings a new State. Top 5 basketball Brand. A rich man's Maryland, they're, ahem, a slam dunk.
FSU: co-Flagship in big state. Not AAU. 55 USN&WR, 63-85 ARWU. Used to be good at football.
Clemson: co-Flagship. Not AAU. 77 USN&WR. 147-157 ARWU. Big brand is similar to Nebraska's from 2010.
Miami: Private with great history of Success, much like USC's. Not AAU. 55 USN&WR, 63-85 ARWU. Done squat in 20 years, however, no Conference titles and only 1 division title since joining the ACC.
UVA: Flagship. AAU. #25 USN&WR, 63-85 ARWU. Solid in basketball, won title a few years ago, not so much in football.

UNC passes the smell test for the B1G, they're a far better version of Maryland. UVA passes the smell test, too, they're very similar to Maryland. The rest? 11 football Titles and a Dream. 1, or all, of those other 3 could get a B1G invite, and neither would surprise me in the slightest. None of the 3 look better on paper today than Nebraska did in 2010, Nebraska was an AAU Flagship with 3 titles in the past 16 years, that's as many as Clemson, Miami and FSU all have combined, in the past 16 years, and 1 more AAU than they all 3 have combined, too.
I’m curious what the rank is for Georgia Tech? I think the BIG would be interested in the Yellow Jackets to get into ATL and GA recruiting to go along with UVA UNC and MIAMI. This would give the BIG a presence throughout the east coast with NYC/NJ, DC, ATL, and MIAMI
 
I actually think that the ACC loses a few teams (2? 6? who knows?), then the rest merge with the big 12. It will be billed as all the big 12 schools joining the ACC, however, so that the combined entity can use and expand the ACCN. That's an extra, what, $5-10m per team? ESPN wins b/c they delay the inevitable decline and demise of their cable $$. The ACC schools win b/c they achieve added stability by ensuring their place in the top tier pecking order. The big 12 wins b/c they really absorb the ACC instead of vice versa, and both Conferences now get Yormark Time.

The biggest complication in this scenario is the Pac. What happens there? If they hold together until 2030 or so then a big 12/ACC merger is on. If the Pac splits and 4-6 of them join the big 12, it's possible that the combined new big 18 decides to hold off on integrating another 8-10 ACC schools.
Going West, definitely looks like the path of least resistance, at the moment. Pac12 is giving off death rattles. If the ACC isn't poachable, then Uconn and Pac12 schools may be the way to go, for the Big12 in the immediate future.
 
I agree that the academic fit is important to their decision. But they did make the exception for Nebraska, who everyone knew was losing AAU status. In hindsight that was an awful add by the B16. Really a head scratcher. . . .

Nebraska was AAU at the time the invite was extended. As others have pointed out, they were voted out as the AAU changed its research funding metrics by devaluing agricultural research. There have been some rumors that UNL was pushing for the medical school to be placed under the UNL umbrella to regain its AAU status (I believe it is similar to Upstate, which is a SUNY school of its own and not part of another SUNY school), but I do not think that plan is moving forward.

From a football power standpoint, I agree that it did not work out, but I recall Husker fans thought UNL was going to come into the B1G and dominate. They did make it to one BTCG (back in the Leaders/Legends days) where Wisconsin destroyed them. From a cultural standpoint, I think they fit in to the B1G well. Well, at least the culture before the conference added Rutgers, Maryland, USC, and UCLA (and Penn State).

. . . Besides ND, I think they would make an exception to get into Texas and Florida.

Rumor was that UT and OU talked to the B1G about an invite. The B1G indicated it would take UT, but not OU and, as a result, OUT reached out to the SEC. If true (and I understand it is a big "if"), it shows the limits of an exception the conference would make to get into Texas.
 
Nebraska was AAU at the time the invite was extended. As others have pointed out, they were voted out as the AAU changed its research funding metrics by devaluing agricultural research. There have been some rumors that UNL was pushing for the medical school to be placed under the UNL umbrella to regain its AAU status (I believe it is similar to Upstate, which is a SUNY school of its own and not part of another SUNY school), but I do not think that plan is moving forward.

From a football power standpoint, I agree that it did not work out, but I recall Husker fans thought UNL was going to come into the B1G and dominate. They did make it to one BTCG (back in the Leaders/Legends days) where Wisconsin destroyed them. From a cultural standpoint, I think they fit in to the B1G well. Well, at least the culture before the conference added Rutgers, Maryland, USC, and UCLA (and Penn State).



Rumor was that UT and OU talked to the B1G about an invite. The B1G indicated it would take UT, but not OU and, as a result, OUT reached out to the SEC. If true (and I understand it is a big "if"), it shows the limits of an exception the conference would make to get into Texas.

The Oklahoma thing is why I don’t think FSU gets an invite.

Giving Baylor’s med funding I wonder if they would qualify for AAU.
 
FSU is a conundrum, all speculation about them going to the B1G requires them to change their previous criteria for accepting new schools . . .

I am not convinced all the speculation about FSU getting a B1G invite wasn't started by the FSU and run with by the media. Based on previous rumors, the ACC candidates for B1G membership has always been UNC and UVA, with GT being discussed more recently.

. . . Anyway, it's a moot point. FSU and Clemson are certain to join the SEC the minute they're able, barring some sort of seismic shift in the CFB landscape. , ,

Clemson, yes, but maybe for FSU. Keep in mind that FSU turned down the SEC to join the ACC. One of the reasons (supposedly) for its choice to join the ACC was because FSU though it would raise its academic profile as the ACC is the better league academically. The money between the B1G and the SEC is close enough that FSU would be able to choose between academics or geography. While I believe geography will be the choice, I do not believe it is certain.
 
The Oklahoma thing is why I don’t think FSU gets an invite.

Giving Baylor’s med funding I wonder if they would qualify for AAU.

The only reason I know this is because my niece's boyfriend was thinking about going to Baylor (which is in Houston, not Waco) for medical school and I asked my doctor (who went to Baylor Med) about it:

"In 1969, by mutual agreement, the College separated from Baylor University to become an independent institution. This encouraged broader, nonsectarian support and provided access to federal research funding. The institution's name changed to Baylor College of Medicine." Source
 

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