ACC, PAC-12, and BIG alliance / conference realignment

[kcsu]

Based on your hypothetical, the ACC would be a G5 level conference unless there is a perennial NC contender. No, VATech, UNC and others do not count as none has done so in recent memory. Even FSU and UM can be discounted somewhat, right now. Thus, the "New" ACC is likely to fall under the same deal as the G5.

Obviously, new teams may obtain the perennial powerhouse (hopefully SU) status before the defections, but that remains to be seen. Prudent planning would not bet on hope.

So based on your argument the ACC is currently a G5 level conference. Last year only Clemson would count as being championship capable. Nobody knows how college football is going to play out 5 years or more from now. I believe that this settlement while not great does provide stability. If I'm the ACC I would take this period of time to plan on the eventual and look at which teams to add from either lower conferences or more likely the Big 12. My two cents is that the ACC will remain the third conference when the dust settles.

 

[0.2 YNdeeR]

Thanks for failing to explain how this benefits SU and what FSU and Clemson are offering in exchange for this favorable revised agreement.

You are correct, I will be disappointed if SU votes for this settlement. Unless SU has a side agreement to protect SU, which would involve tortious interference, then this deal is against SU's interests.

Because the ACC has disdained football, the GOR my not be extended (assuming no defections), we will not know, though you present as if you have inside information.

Yor third paragraph makes no sense. If FSU or Clemson failed to garner a full share, a move was not cost effective, better to wait out the ACC agreement and them join with no losses. (Hint: The numbers were worked out in this an other threads). Further, ESPN controls FSU media rights, why would ESPN let FSU go to Fox without getting something in return?

FSU fans can think what they want, but you should remember that FSU is running in the red, couldn't pay the $100MM offer to leave (suggesting FSU would pay out of its new revenue over ten years), still cannot raise sufficient funds for its stadium, etc. Please explain where the FSU money is coming from, FSU does not have it.

Again, SU should not cut of its nose to spite its face.

It seems weird that the settlement is happening barely 5 weeks after the league and ESPN "renewed their commitment" to continue the arrangement (until the 2035-36 season). However, it is possible that legacy ACC members were afraid the league would fold without some compromise. There had to be an existential reason for them to agree to lower FSU's/CU's GOR buyout and plus up their shares. ESPN doesn't care about revenue distribution (it's a conference issue), but it certainly wouldn't sanction any contract change with the league that would permit FSU (or Clemson) to walk. ESPN paid (with the exception of regional games sold to CW) for the GOR of all ACC schools for the duration of the deal.

Edit: This article gives some reasons why legacy "smaller viewership" schools would cave, although it still seems like they are getting played.

 

[AcAndAc]

Why? The new agreement allows FSU to leave early. If the agreement is not signed, FSU must stay until 2036. The deal benefits SU and others through 2036.

Again, what are FSU and Clemson giving up in consideration for this favorable agreement?

Dropping their lawsuits is #1. Agreeing to delay leaving until after 2030 is #2.

The Grant of Rights is solid...as solid as the court that is entertaining it. Hometown Tallahassee judge can do hometown things...

 

[HtownOrange]

So based on your argument the ACC is currently a G5 level conference. Last year only Clemson would count as being championship capable. Nobody knows how college football is going to play out 5 years or more from now. I believe that this settlement while not great does provide stability. If I'm the ACC I would take this period of time to plan on the eventual and look at which teams to add from either lower conferences or more likely the Big 12. My two cents is that the ACC will remain the third conference when the dust settles.

Clemson has been a perennial contender for the past decade, give or take, they won it all. No, I would not agree that the ACC has been a G5 level conference the past decade. FSU had a great 2023 and a very poor 2024, 2021 and 2022 were also disappointing. However, over the past 40 years, you generally could not count out FSU. Miami may be back, but they need to string a few seasons in contention.

IF this agreement provides stability why does the current agreement not provide stability? Both FSU and Clemson are on the hook through 2036, much longer than 2030. What are FSU and Clemson giving up in consideration for this agreement?

 

[Hoo's That]

The funny thing is UNC and particularly UVA are average football TV draws.

Seriously, calling us an average TV draw is a compliment.

 

[HtownOrange]

Dropping their lawsuits is #1. Agreeing to delay leaving until after 2030 is #2.

The Grant of Rights is solid...as solid as the court that is entertaining it. Hometown Tallahassee judge can do hometown things...

The lawsuits are far less expensive that paying extra to each. Besides, they must also carry their own costs, at worst it is a wash and not really consideration. Under the present agreement, neither can leave unt8il 2036, cutting that short benefits FSU and Clemson, not the ACC; therefore, there is no consideration.

While you are correct that the Tallahassee judge can pull some strings, they have not weighed in on any material matters nor can they force the higher courts and the federal courts to rule for FSU. The matter is not a state matter.

 

[AcAndAc]

The lawsuits are far less expensive that paying extra to each. Besides, they must also carry their own costs, at worst it is a wash and not really consideration. Under the present agreement, neither can leave unt8il 2036, cutting that short benefits FSU and Clemson, not the ACC; therefore, there is no consideration.

While you are correct that the Tallahassee judge can pull some strings, they have not weighed in on any material matters nor can they force the higher courts and the federal courts to rule for FSU. The matter is not a state matter.

Throwing a lot of legal terms around recklessly.

#1... why would federal courts be involved? These are state court actions. The Tallahassee based Supreme Court is a risk for the ACC.
#2... getting the lawsuits dismissed would be legal consideration alone.

Please, stay in your non-legal lane.

 

[Toga]

Can I get a yes or no to one question?
Does what we understand from the proposed settlement impact the GOR dollar impact on a school which leaves?

 

[hoopsupstate]

Another factor to keep in mind is who says the current Big Four model will even exist in ten years. Maybe everyone goes the NFL model with regional divisions and winners go to the playoffs. It’s certainly been discussed along with revenue sharing. Some In the SEC and Big 10 might get sick and tired of beating each other up and not getting into the playoffs. Ask Alabama, MSU and South Carolina how they liked the expanded SEC this year. Keep adding teams to your conference and more of your members are going to have average records. This settlement is just biding time until the next domino falls.

 

[oldpinepoint]

There is zero stability with this settlement. I would expect the announcement that they are leaving to occur by 2027 or 2028. So basically 2 maybe 3 years of stability?

 

[AcAndAc]

Can I get a yes or no to one question?
Does what we understand from the proposed settlement impact the GOR dollar impact on a school which leaves?

From what we understand... the cost for FSU to leave drops substantially... $200M through 2029-2030, less than $100M thereafter. Total exit fee... includes owed to ACC and ability to take media with them.

 

[Toga]

From what we understand... the cost for FSU to leave drops substantially... $200M through 2029-2030, less than $100M thereafter. Total exit fee... includes owed to ACC and ability to take media with them.

Ok. Does ESPN need to agree in order for that to occur?

 

[oldpinepoint]

Ok. Does ESPN need to agree in order for that to occur?

I’m pretty sure they would. ESPN is a party to the GOR, so changing the buyout would alter the tv rights deal. I tend to agree that the ESPN article is incomplete

 

[Scooch]

Is it reasonable to think that the league office brokered this settlement without conducting a straw poll of membership beforehand to determine its likelihood to be ratified?

Is a vote to accept it a simple majority, or a higher threshold?

I can see 10 yes votes from members who believe they have clear paths to the B1G or SEC.

HtownOrange Care to answer this?

 

[Scooch]

HtownOrange Care to answer this?

I think I already have my answer. Apparently the ACC BOD has voted to approve the settlement.

After 2030 the exit fee drops to $75 million and exiting schools retain their media rights.

So as I first said yesterday, I'd expect at least a half dozen ACC schools to depart starting in 2030-ish.

 

[WoadBlue]

So based on your argument the ACC is currently a G5 level conference. Last year only Clemson would count as being championship capable. Nobody knows how college football is going to play out 5 years or more from now. I believe that this settlement while not great does provide stability. If I'm the ACC I would take this period of time to plan on the eventual and look at which teams to add from either lower conferences or more likely the Big 12. My two cents is that the ACC will remain the third conference when the dust settles.

That is my hope, and I know it can be done. I do not believe it can be done unless the ACC cuts its dead weight and adds schools that fit with what made the BT and SEC so obviously overflowing with CFB fans: state schools of some size, flagships and Land Grants that are certain to carry statewide support.

Location, location, location for CFB fandom and the production of top recruits are required amongst new members. Schools having CFB obsessed boosters with some knee is also important. There is not any perfect school the ACC can add, but the UofA, AZ ST, Utah, Colorado, Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, Houston, CIncy, and WVU all would be better for the ACC than BC and Wake. I'd even take Tulane over either Wake of BC.

 

[WoadBlue]

I think I already have my answer. Apparently the ACC BOD has voted to approve the settlement.

After 2030 the exit fee drops to $75 million and exiting schools retain their media rights.

So as I first said yesterday, I'd expect at least a half dozen ACC schools to depart starting in 2030-ish.

That will depend on what the future looks like for the ACC.

 

[Scooch]

That will depend on what the future looks like for the ACC.

Is there any future where the ACC generates nearly as much revenue for its members as the B1G? If not, I'd expect UNC, UVA and Duke to be as good as gone to the B1G withing the next 5-7 years.

 

[WoadBlue]

Another factor to keep in mind is who says the current Big Four model will even exist in ten years. Maybe everyone goes the NFL model with regional divisions and winners go to the playoffs. It’s certainly been discussed along with revenue sharing. Some In the SEC and Big 10 might get sick and tired of beating each other up and not getting into the playoffs. Ask Alabama, MSU and South Carolina how they liked the expanded SEC this year. Keep adding teams to your conference and more of your members are going to have average records. This settlement is just biding time until the next domino falls.

Likewise, who says that the Mars CFB association won't come in and save Earth CFB.

Neither the BT nor the SEC will ever give up being what they are. Never.

 

[oldpinepoint]

I think I already have my answer. Apparently the ACC BOD has voted to approve the settlement.

After 2030 the exit fee drops to $75 million and exiting schools retain their media rights.

So as I first said yesterday, I'd expect at least a half dozen ACC schools to depart starting in 2030-ish.

I think sooner, we will know in a few years. Will announce they are leaving in 2030.

 

[WoadBlue]

Is there any future where the ACC generates nearly as much revenue for its members as the B1G? If not, I'd expect UNC, UVA and Duke to be as good as gone to the B1G withing the next 5-7 years.

It can get a lot closer, buy only with league members that are dead wight culled and then wise replacements and a strict oversight of all OOC schedules. For example, nobody plays any 1AA schools. And everybody is stringy encouraged to take SEC and BT series even if that means giving up a true Home game for a neutral site. For example, if PSU wants to play Syracuse but wants the Case Home game to be at Giants stadium, I say take that deal. The TV numbers will be very high. ESPN does not care if a Cuse Home game is played in Syracuse or Giants Stadium or Yankee Stadium if the numbers are high. And all networks pay flor those TV viewers, not for Ws, even OOC Ws, and not for playing in certain on campus stadiums.

Likewise, UNC must stop playing the likes of Charlotte and even App St and ECU, even if that means playing UGA in Athens and then in Charlotte, playing Tennessee in Knoxville and then in Charlotte.

Bobby Bowden built FSU by playing Name Brands 2 at their home end and 1 in Tallahassee, by playing them at their place and then at a neutral site in FL. ESPN would demand the latter to keep al possible games on ESPN.

 

[Scooch]

I think sooner, we will know in a few years. Will announce they are leaving in 2030.

Yeah, the timing will be impacted by the B1G rights renewal negotiations. If they want to have additional members announcing their intentions before the start of talks then that'll accelerate things.

 

[oldpinepoint]

Yeah, the timing will be impacted by the B1G rights renewal negotiations. If they want to have additional members announcing their intentions before the start of talks then that'll accelerate things.

Excellent point

 

[Scooch]

It can get a lot closer, buy only with league members that are dead wight culled and then wise replacements and a strict oversight of all OOC schedules. For example, nobody plays any 1AA schools. And everybody is stringy encouraged to take SEC and BT series even if that means giving up a true Home game for a neutral site. For example, if PSU wants to play Syracuse but wants the Case Home game to be at Giants stadium, I say take that deal. The TV numbers will be very high. ESPN does not care if a Cuse Home game is played in Syracuse or Giants Stadium or Yankee Stadium if the numbers are high. And all networks pay flor those TV viewers, not for Ws, even OOC Ws, and not for playing in certain on campus stadiums.

Likewise, UNC must stop playing the likes of Charlotte and even App St and ECU, even if that means playing UGA in Athens and then in Charlotte, playing Tennessee in Knoxville and then in Charlotte.

Bobby Bowden built FSU by playing Name Brands 2 at their home end and 1 in Tallahassee, by playing them at their place and then at a neutral site in FL. ESPN would demand the latter to keep al possible games on ESPN.

Yeahhh, I don't think any of this really matters. The B1G's going to get a large increase in media rights payments when they renegotiate their deals in a few years. The delta between the B1G and the top of the ACC is going to enormous. A couple better football games ain't gonna bridge that to any meaningful degree.

 

[Toga]

I think I already have my answer. Apparently the ACC BOD has voted to approve the settlement.

After 2030 the exit fee drops to $75 million and exiting schools retain their media rights.

So as I first said yesterday, I'd expect at least a half dozen ACC schools to depart starting in 2030-ish.

Well that's it ladies and germs.