ACC Tournament Projections 3.0

[Marsh01]

Tournament seedings as of today:

Again I have kept Louisville in the standings but I will not seed them. The seedings are based on Louisville not being in the equation.


Standings:

1. North Carolina 9-2
2. Virginia 9-3
3. Miami (FL) 8-3
Louisville 8-3
4. Notre Dame 8-4
5. Duke 7-4________Buy into the Quarterfinals
6. Syracuse 7-5
7. Clemson 7-5
8. Pittsburgh 6-5
9. Florida State 6-6
10. Virginia Tech 5-7______Buy into the Second Round
11. Georgia Tech 3-8
12. NC State 2-9
13. Wake Forest 1-11
14. Boston College 0-11


All games are on ESPN, ESPN2 or the ACC Network

First Round Tuesday March 8th

Game 1 - #12 seed NC State vs. #13 seed Wake Forest @ 1:00
Game 2 - #11 seed Georgia Tech vs. #14 seed Boston College @ 3:30

Second Round Wednesday March 9th

Game 3 - #8 seed Pittsburgh vs. #9 seed Florida State @ Noon
Game 4 - #5 seed Duke vs. Game 1 winner @ 2:30
Game 5 - #7 seed Clemson vs. #10 seed Virginia Tech @ 7:00
Game 6- #6 seed Syracuse vs. Game 2 winner @ 9:30

Quarterfinals Thursday March 10th

Game 7 - #1 seed North Carolina vs. Game 3 winner @ Noon
Game 8 - #4 seed Notre Dame vs. Game 4 winner @ 2:30
Game 9 - #2 seed Virginia vs. Game 5 winner @ 7:00
Game 10 - #3 seed Miami (FL) vs. Game 6 winner @ 9:30

Semifinals Friday March 11th

Game 11 - Game 7 winner vs. Game 8 winner @ 7:00
Game 12 - Game 9 winner vs. Game 10 winner @ 9:30

Finals Saturday March 12th

Game 13 - Game 11 winner vs. Game 12 winner @ 9:00


ACC Games through next Friday

Saturday February 13th

Wake Forest @ NC State
Georgia Tech @ Clemson
Louisville @ Notre Dame
Virginia @ Duke

Sunday February 14th

Syracuse @ Boston College
Pittsburgh @ North Carolina
Miami (FL) @ Florida State

Monday February 15th

NC State @ Virginia

Tuesday February 16th

Wake Forest @ Pittsburgh

Wednesday February 17th

Syracuse @ Louisville
Boston College @ Clemson
Virginia Tech @ Miami (FL)
Duke @ North Carolina
Georgia Tech @ Florida State

No games on Thursday February 18th or Friday February 19th

 

[TexanMark]

Good thing the ACC could dust off the Syracuse Plan (with Louisville). :bang: ACC has left money on the table for the next 6 years.

BTW, wouldn't Clemson technically have the tiebreaker over Cuse right now?

 

[Marsh01]

Good thing the ACC could dust off the Syracuse Plan (with Louisville). :bang: ACC has left money on the table for the next 6 years.

BTW, wouldn't Clemson technically have the tiebreaker over Cuse right now?

I thought so as well but they are listed ahead of them in every standings I look at.

 

[Cuse_1999]

Clemson would absolutely have the tiebreaker over us right now since we are the only 2 teams at 7-5 and they beat us head to head. The standings on websites don't factor in all the tiebreakers until the end of the season. Right now my guess is we are listed ahead because our overall winning percentage is better than theirs

 

[upperdeck]

what UL does down the stretch will make a big difference.. They could have really hurt Duke with a sweep, and the same with beating us if they do. splitting with duke will help as will beating Pitt or Miami and ND all teams we want to see lose

if UL beats ND I dont see them sweeping the road trip so they have 6 losses , hopefully Duke loses 2 of the next 3, who knows with clemson, schedule is pretty easy but they are trending down,

We need to finish off the home schedule and beat BC and then win one on the road and see where sit.

 

[adk(roc)CUSE]

By Monday we could be sitting at least tied for the 4 spot (Viginia over Duke, Ville over ND). Amazing. I am beginning to love this season considering the adversity we have overcome to get where we are.

 

[Alsacs]

I said last week we were in contention for the 4 seed. We need UL to beat ND and SU to take care of business.

12-6 is going to get the 4 seed. If we go 4-1 we would likely have a good shot at the 4 seed.

 

[Knicks411]

I said last week we were in contention for the 4 seed. We need UL to beat ND and SU to take care of business.

12-6 is going to get the 4 seed. If we go 4-1 we would likely have a good shot at the 4 seed.

At first I would have said it's crazy we could finish top 4, but I kinda forgot about the Louisville thing. That's crazy that we're in contention for that after 0-4. I'm going to say UNC and Virginia are going to finish in the top 2 spots, in some order. So I figure we've got Miami, Notre Dame, Duke, us, and I'll say Clemson and Pitt fighting out for 2 spots in the top 4. Though to be honest, I really think Pitt and Clemson are on the outside looking in.

Miami has: @FSU, Va Tech, @UNC, Virginia, Louisville, @ ND, @ Va Tech.
ND has: Louisville, @ Ga Tech, @ Wake, @ FSU, Miami, NC State.
Duke: Virginia, @ Louisville, @ UNC, FSU, @ Pitt, Wake, UNC
us: @BC, @Lville, Pitt, NC State, @UNC, @FSU.

Miami is 8-3 and they beat us, so maybe we shouldn't bother with them. But we're a full game behind ND and a half game behind Duke and we beat both of them. The only problem here is the ND schedule is pretty manageable;; they're probably going to be favored in every game but one? Louisville basically needs to beat them this weekend. The Duke schedule is really though.

I agree if we got to 12-6 (5-1, not 4-1) we'd have a pretty good shot at getting to #4 on a tiebreaker over ND and/or Duke. But that means we need to take care of business plus win @FSU and one of UNC/Lville. Probably our best case reasonable outcome is getting to 5 and then probably getting ND in the second round?

 

[Alsacs]

At first I would have said it's crazy we could finish top 4, but I kinda forgot about the Louisville thing. That's crazy that we're in contention for that after 0-4. I'm going to say UNC and Virginia are going to finish in the top 2 spots, in some order. So I figure we've got Miami, Notre Dame, Duke, us, and I'll say Clemson and Pitt fighting out for 2 spots in the top 4. Though to be honest, I really think Pitt and Clemson are on the outside looking in.

Miami has: @FSU, Va Tech, @UNC, Virginia, Louisville, @ ND, @ Va Tech.
ND has: Louisville, @ Ga Tech, @ Wake, @ FSU, Miami, NC State.
Duke: Virginia, @ Louisville, @ UNC, FSU, @ Pitt, Wake, UNC
us: @BC, @Lville, Pitt, NC State, @UNC, @FSU.

Miami is 8-3 and they beat us, so maybe we shouldn't bother with them. But we're a full game behind ND and a half game behind Duke and we beat both of them. The only problem here is the ND schedule is pretty manageable;; they're probably going to be favored in every game but one? Louisville basically needs to beat them this weekend. The Duke schedule is really though.

I agree if we got to 12-6 (5-1, not 4-1) we'd have a pretty good shot at getting to #4 on a tiebreaker over ND and/or Duke. But that means we need to take care of business plus win @FSU and one of UNC/Lville. Probably our best case reasonable outcome is getting to 5 and then probably getting ND in the second round?

I thought Miami was a lock but they could easily lose 4 games in their last 7 @FSU/@UNC/@ND/UVA and even UL and @VPI. I mean Miami could finish 9-9 to 13-5 I have no clue.
Duke has 2-3 losses left as well. UNC's size will be awful tough for them if they don't get Jefferson back.

ND was the team I thought we would have to jump and UL/@GT/@FSU/Miami are hard games for them.

SU would need to go 5-1 which won't be easy IMO as we still have a smaller margin for error. @UL/Pitt will tell us all we need to know next week. A split would be good but a sweep either way are in play.

 

[Knicks411]

I thought Miami was a lock but they could easily lose 4 games in their last 7 @FSU/@UNC/@ND/UVA and even UL and @VPI. I mean Miami could finish 9-9 to 13-5 I have no clue.
Duke has 2-3 losses left as well. UNC's size will be awful tough for them if they don't get Jefferson back.

ND was the team I thought we would have to jump and UL/@GT/@FSU/Miami are hard games for them.

SU would need to go 5-1 which won't be easy IMO as we still have a smaller margin for error. @UL/Pitt will tell us all we need to know next week. A split would be good but a sweep either way are in play.

I think for us, Miami will be tough to jump due to the tiebreaker. We're 1.5 behind them, plus the tiebreaker. So you're right, they probably are a lock.
5-1 I love our chances; ND would need to finish 5-1 and Duke would need to go 6-1, due to our head to head wins over them.

But if we "only" finish 4-2, that puts us at 11-7, and ND would need to finish 4-2 to guarantee staying ahead of us. They have games they can lose, but I'd bet on 4-2 out of them. If they drop the home game to Louisville, that at least changes things a little.

Moving from ACC to the NCAA; I feel like we have a decent chance of getting seeded into Brooklyn.

 

[Alsacs]

I think for us, Miami will be tough to jump due to the tiebreaker. We're 1.5 behind them, plus the tiebreaker. So you're right, they probably are a lock.
5-1 I love our chances; ND would need to finish 5-1 and Duke would need to go 6-1, due to our head to head wins over them.

But if we "only" finish 4-2, that puts us at 11-7, and ND would need to finish 4-2 to guarantee staying ahead of us. They have games they can lose, but I'd bet on 4-2 out of them. If they drop the home game to Louisville, that at least changes things a little.

Moving from ACC to the NCAA; I feel like we have a decent chance of getting seeded into Brooklyn.

Here is the media mock selection right now. If we go to Providence or Brooklyn we would have a significant crowd presence.

Raleigh- North Carolina/Virginia
Des Moines Iowa/Iowa State
OKC- Oklahoma/Kansas
Brooklyn- Villanova/Maryland
St. Louis- Michigan State/Xavier
Providence- West Virginia/Miami
Spokane- Oregon/Texas
Denver- Dayton/Utah

Based on this mock committee.

We could easily go from 33 to the 15-25 range.

 

[Marsh01]

Right now on the Bracket Matrix we are projected as a 9 seed

 

[Eric15]

Here is the media mock selection right now. If we go to Providence or Brooklyn we would have a significant crowd presence.

Raleigh- North Carolina/Virginia
Des Moines Iowa/Iowa State
OKC- Oklahoma/Kansas
Brooklyn- Villanova/Maryland
St. Louis- Michigan State/Xavier
Providence- West Virginia/Miami
Spokane- Oregon/Texas
Denver- Dayton/Utah

Based on this mock committee.

We could easily go from 33 to the 15-25 range.

Can someone explain to me how UConn is ahead of us on this curve? I can't get my head around it.

SU: RPI 37, SOS 41, 6 Top 50 wins
UConn: RPI 46, SOS 57, 1 Top 50 win

And we beat them (which I know wouldn't factor into this ranking, but still).

 

[Knicks411]

Here is the media mock selection right now. If we go to Providence or Brooklyn we would have a significant crowd presence.

Raleigh- North Carolina/Virginia
Des Moines Iowa/Iowa State
OKC- Oklahoma/Kansas
Brooklyn- Villanova/Maryland
St. Louis- Michigan State/Xavier
Providence- West Virginia/Miami
Spokane- Oregon/Texas
Denver- Dayton/Utah

Based on this mock committee.

We could easily go from 33 to the 15-25 range.

Nova as a 1 and Maryland as a 2 or 3? That's the combo I've seen a lot of.

As a 9 seed, we'd be set right up to play nova in Brooklyn.

 

[Alsacs]

Can someone explain to me how UConn is ahead of us on this curve? I can't get my head around it.

SU: RPI 37, SOS 41, 6 Top 50 wins
UConn, RPI 46, SOS, 57, 1 Top 50 win

And we beat them (which I know wouldn't factor into this ranking, but still).

I honestly don't get it. Even before we beat FSU and they lost to Temple yesterday if I was objectively analyzing resumes I would say Syracuse has a better one than UConn. They beat them on a neutral court and UConn's best wins aren't that good they did beat Georgetown at home while we lost to them on the road but their resume is thin.

 

[Alsacs]

Nova as a 1 and Maryland as a 2 or 3? That's the combo I've seen a lot of.

As a 9 seed, we'd be set right up to play nova in Brooklyn.

I would agree we could very likely be in the 8-9 game with Nova.

Maryland doesn't have that strong a resume even though I think they are a legit NC contender. They beat Iowa at home, UConn-MSG, and @Wisconsin was their best road win.

Maryland even though they look like a 1 seed right now deserve their slotting on the 2-3 line. They could be an opponent 2md round if we worked our way up to the 7 line.

 

[Knicks411]

I would agree we could very likely be in the 8-9 game with Nova.

Maryland doesn't have that strong a resume even though I think they are a legit NC contender. They beat Iowa at home, UConn-MSG, and @Wisconsin was their best road win.

Maryland even though they look like a 1 seed right now deserve their slotting on the 2-3 line. They could be an opponent 2md round if we worked our way up to the 7 line.

We could also backslide into a 10 and be with Maryland as a 2.

My guess is barring a huge drop in performance, is that Nova and Maryland will be in Brooklyn. There really aren't a lot of other teams that make sense geographically. Nova is probably going to be a 1, and Maryland is likely going to be a 2 or a 3. As a 3, it's tough, we'd need to end up as an 11 (Lunardi has us there, but LOL) or get all the way up to a 6, which seems unlikely. The committee does try and keep teams closer to home when possible, but the further you fall down the seed line, the harder this becomes, as you need to balance the other bracket rules and the like. Using bracket matrix, here are the 7-10's right now

7
Providence
South Carolina
Florida
Indiana

8
Pitt
Colorado
Cal
Wichita State

9
UConn
VCU
FSU
Us

10
Michigan
Seton Hall
St Joes
St Mary's

Now, keep in mind, this doesn't include the results from last night; so I would think we'd probably be at the top of the 9 seed line, or at least vaulting past FSU and UConn. Providence can't be in Providence, I could see them as the 7 in Brooklyn with Maryland as a the 2, and we could be fighting to be in the 8-9 game with Pitt in Nova's pod. So, Pitt at home is probably a pretty big game.

 

[Alsacs]

Palm has us up to an 8 after last night and UConn down the First 4. Atleast someone gets it unlike Lunardi.

I think 4-2 we are in the 8-9 game
5-1 we are in 6-7 range.
3-3 we are on bubble.
the rest no clue.

Your breakdown tells me really are close to the 7 line. I just want to be podded in the East though.

 

[Knicks411]

Palm has us up to an 8 after last night and UConn down the First 4. Atleast someone gets it unlike Lunardi.

I think 4-2 we are in the 8-9 game
5-1 we are in 6-7 range.
3-3 we are on bubble.
the rest no clue.

Your breakdown tells me really are close to the 7 line. I just want to be podded in the East though.

I wonder if we could even get to a 5 with a 5-1 finish? I guess it depends on what we do in DC, but to get to 5-1 you're going to beat Pitt at home, plus presumably @FSU and @UNC or Duke. Even setting aside taking into consideration JB missing 9 games, you'd be talking about a resume that could have 2 neutral site victories over tournament teams (assuming UConn holds onto a spot), 3 home wins over tournament teams (assuming FSU gets in) and 3 road wins at tournament teams (again, assuming FSU. If one of the 5 is Louisville it wouldn't technically be a tournament team but they'd still count). You could be talking 8 wins over teams in the field, with 5 of them coming away from home. But we're a long way from there.

I still think a 3-3 finish puts us safely (though it might be a little tense on Selection Sunday) into the dance. That's 10-8 in the league, and we'd have to add either a win over Pitt or FSU to get to 3. So I think we'd be ok.

 

[nycfan]

We could also backslide into a 10 and be with Maryland as a 2.

Now, keep in mind, this doesn't include the results from last night; so I would think we'd probably be at the top of the 9 seed line, or at least vaulting past FSU and UConn. Providence can't be in Providence, I could see them as the 7 in Brooklyn with Maryland as a the 2, and we could be fighting to be in the 8-9 game with Pitt in Nova's pod. So, Pitt at home is probably a pretty big game.

Not only those 2, but also VCU was upset last night by a lowly 10-13 UMASS team:

9 Connecticut American 9.06
9 Virginia Commonwealth Atlantic 10 9.09
9 Florida State ACC 9.36
9 Syracuse ACC 9.37

It'll probably take a couple days for all 89 people on this matrix to update their new brackets, but I figure at worst we'll be the top consensus 9-seed. So as Palm has already, an 8-seed is not out of the question in the near team if we take care of business on Sunday.

 

[Knicks411]

For some reason I thought the VCU game was a few nights ago. So even better!

 

[SU94]

Palm has us up to an 8 after last night and UConn down the First 4. Atleast someone gets it unlike Lunardi.

I think 4-2 we are in the 8-9 game
5-1 we are in 6-7 range.
3-3 we are on bubble.
the rest no clue.

Your breakdown tells me really are close to the 7 line. I just want to be podded in the East though.

I'll say this ... we are not on the bubble if we close 3-3.

That would be 20-11 (10-8). With wins over aTm, UConn, the Bonnies, @Duke and nominal Boeheim bump (hey, they said it, but I think it'll be might small).

One bad loss (okay, it was terrible) is not going to offset a great 2-month stretch of basketball.

We might be a 9 or 10 seed, but we'd be safely in even with an opening loss in the ACC Tourney.

 

[Knicks411]

We were #33 on the mock selection list, so that's an 9 seed. Haven't seen a site yet, but I bet it's with Nova in Brooklyn.

UConn one spot ahead. Not sure that makes sense but whatever. So maybe they're in Brooklyn

 

[pearl31]

we'd be safely in at 10-8 and 90% in at 9-9 with 1 ACCT win... obviously though, want to win as many as possible and just worry about seed and not in/out

 

[jncuse]

Palm has us up to an 8 after last night and UConn down the First 4. Atleast someone gets it unlike Lunardi.

I think 4-2 we are in the 8-9 game
5-1 we are in 6-7 range.
3-3 we are on bubble.
the rest no clue.

Your breakdown tells me really are close to the 7 line. I just want to be podded in the East though.

IMO. I think you are one game too high on each.

2-4 we are on the bubble, and IMO we get in given how the bubble is shaking up.
3-3 we are a lock and somewhere around 8/9
4-2 we are a 6/7
5-1 we are a 4/5/6