ACC Tournament Projections 4.0

[Marsh01]

No ACC games tonight so I figured I would update it today.

Again Louisville in the standings but not seeded.

Looking at the standings Syracuse is probably going to be looking at a seed between 6-8. I would say its safe to assume we will be in the 7-8 slot. Clemson plays BC twice plus we lose the tie breaker to them so I can't see catching them.


Standings:

1. Miami (FL) 10-3
2. North Carolina 10-3
3. Virginia 10-4
Louisville 9-4
4. Duke 9-4
5. Notre Dame 9-4________Buy into the Quarterfinals
6. Clemson 9-5
7. Syracuse 8-6
8. Pittsburgh 7-6
9. Florida State 6-8
10. Virginia Tech 5-8______Buy into the Second Round
11. Georgia Tech 4-9
12. NC State 3-10
13. Wake Forest 1-13
14. Boston College 0-13


All games are on ESPN, ESPN2 or the ACC Network

First Round Tuesday March 8th

Game 1 - #12 seed NC State vs. #13 seed Wake Forest @ 1:00
Game 2 - #11 seed Georgia Tech vs. #14 seed Boston College @ 3:30

Second Round Wednesday March 9th

Game 3 - #8 seed Pittsburgh vs. #9 seed Florida State @ Noon
Game 4 - #5 seed Notre Dame vs. Game 1 winner @ 2:30
Game 5 - #7 seed Syracuse vs. #10 seed Virginia Tech @ 7:00
Game 6- #6 seed Clemson vs. Game 2 winner @ 9:30

Quarterfinals Thursday March 10th

Game 7 - #1 seed Miami (FL) vs. Game 3 winner @ Noon
Game 8 - #4 seed Duke vs. Game 4 winner @ 2:30
Game 9 - #2 seed North Carolina vs. Game 5 winner @ 7:00
Game 10 - #3 seed Virginia vs. Game 6 winner @ 9:30

Semifinals Friday March 11th

Game 11 - Game 7 winner vs. Game 8 winner @ 7:00
Game 12 - Game 9 winner vs. Game 10 winner @ 9:30

Finals Saturday March 12th

Game 13 - Game 11 winner vs. Game 12 winner @ 9:00


ACC Games through next Friday

Saturday February 20th

Duke @ Louisville
Miami (FL) @ North Carolina
Pittsburgh @ Syracuse
Clemson @ Wake Forest
Florida State @ Virginia Tech
Notre Dame @ Georgia Tech

Sunday February 21st

Boston College @ Wake Forest

Monday February 22nd

Virginia @ Miami (FL)

Tuesday February 23rd

Clemson @ Georgia Tech
Virginia Tech @ Boston College

Wednesday February 24th

Louisville @ Pittsburgh
North Carolina @ NC State
Notre Dame @ Wake Forest

Thursday February 25th

Florida State @ Duke


No games on Friday February 26th

 

[adk(roc)CUSE]

BC hung with Clemson last night. I could see them losing to either Tech (who beat FSU on the road) or Wake (if they make FTs). With that said you're probably right about the 6-8 range. I had visions of us sneaking into the double by prior to last night's Loss coupled with the Dook win.

At least with seed 6-8 work won't conflict with me watching.

Go Orange

 

[gbo]

BC hung with Clemson last night. I could see them losing to either Tech (who beat FSU on the road) or Wake (if they make FTs). With that said you're probably right about the 6-8 range. I had visions of us sneaking into the double by prior to last night's Loss coupled with the Dook win.

At least with seed 6-8 work won't conflict with me watching.

Go Orange

We don't play Wake again this year. However we do finish with road games at State, Tech, and BC, with a home game against UVA before the BC finale. Definitely not a guarantee in the bunch, especially after we trailed at the half against BC.

 

[Nicknack]

As a 'Cuse fan, I certainly want us to win every game, BUT... it might help us more to only have one bye than getting a double. That way, we should be able to pick up at least one win in the ACC tourney against a team like Vtech or the like. This could be big come NCAA tourney selection. No cupcakes for those teams with double byes. Just look at UNC who would play us as their first game.

 

[OrangeTown]

As a 'Cuse fan, I certainly want us to win every game, BUT... it might help us more to only have one bye than getting a double. That way, we should be able to pick up at least one win in the ACC tourney against a team like Vtech or the like. This could be big come NCAA tourney selection. No cupcakes for those teams with double byes. Just look at UNC who would play us as their first game.

I have to think we'd need 10 wins to get a double bye, which. in turn, would probably have us comfortably off the bubble come selection time. Then the rest would be a moot point.

 

[cliftonparksufan]

I have to think we'd need 10 wins to get a double bye, which. in turn, would probably have us comfortably off the bubble come selection time. Then the rest would be a moot point.

Saturday's game is kinda, sorta important. I'd hate to go into that last week needing some wins.

 

[OrangeTown]

Saturday's game is kinda, sorta important. I'd hate to go into that last week needing some wins.

Oh, absolutely. My point was that we win now to not need a "cupcake" win in the ACC tournament. I'd prefer a double bye.

 

[TDTOrange]

I have to think we'd need 10 wins to get a double bye, which. in turn, would probably have us comfortably off the bubble come selection time. Then the rest would be a moot point.

Sorry, don't want to jump down your throat here, but there's no chance 10 wins will be enough to get a top 4 seed. Maybe 11 will do it, but will probably need to win out to get there. ND, Clemson and Duke have quite a few projected W's on their upcoming schedules. I'm just hoping to win enough to get away from Va Tech. I can picture that being the tough opening game in the tournament that Buzz finds a way to pull out against us and makes us sweat out the wait til Selection Sunday.

 

[Eric15]

I can't decide if I prefer playing in the afternoon or evening. The evening is more convenient in terms of not missing work, but there's just something extraordinary pleasurable about being in a bar or arena on a March afternoon watching college basketball. Life just feels good.

 

[KaiserUEO]

great, so we could be off the 8-9 game and into the 7 slot...and still get unc.

I want no part of the tar heels.

 

[OrangeTown]

Sorry, don't want to jump down your throat here, but there's no chance 10 wins will be enough to get a top 4 seed. Maybe 11 will do it, but will probably need to win out to get there. ND, Clemson and Duke have quite a few projected W's on their upcoming schedules. I'm just hoping to win enough to get away from Va Tech. I can picture that being the tough opening game in the tournament that Buzz finds a way to pull out against us and makes us sweat out the wait til Selection Sunday.

No need to apologize - I could have worded my post more clearly. My point wasn't to relate how many wins we have to what seed we will get.

My original point was that if we get 10 ACC wins, we're most likely in the NCAA Tournament. The "double bye" talk was secondary. I guess I should have said "at least 10 wins".

 

[SUFan44]

great, so we could be off the 8-9 game and into the 7 slot...and still get unc.

I want no part of the tar heels.

Would rather be 8-9 in this scenario and face Miami in 2nd game. Should have beaten them the first time.

 

[73CAV]

We don't play Wake again this year. However we do finish with road games at State, Tech, and BC, with a home game against UVA before the BC finale. Definitely not a guarantee in the bunch, especially after we trailed at the half against BC.

Uh, I think you meant Pitt at home and not UVa. Syracuse and Virginia only play once this year during the regular season.

 

[cliftonparksufan]

Uh, I think you meant Pitt at home and not UVa. Syracuse and Virginia only play once this year during the regular season.

If you look at his avatar he is a Clemson fan. I didn't understand what he was saying either until I saw that. He is talking about who Clemson is playing.

 

[dollarbill44]

I see that we are only 2 slots down from the "Buy into the Quarterfinals". Maybe we should just start a fund-raiser and increase our bid amount?

Sorry, I couldn't resist.

 

[TDTOrange]

No need to apologize - I could have worded my post more clearly. My point wasn't to relate how many wins we have to what seed we will get.

My original point was that if we get 10 ACC wins, we're most likely in the NCAA Tournament. The "double bye" talk was secondary. I guess I should have said "at least 10 wins".

Gotcha. And I agree. 10 wins in the ACC and we won't have to sweat out Selection Sunday, but won't have a great NCAA seed. 9-9 we're sweating and need to do some work in D.C. to solidify the bid.

 

[KaiserUEO]

I can't decide if I prefer playing in the afternoon or evening. The evening is more convenient in terms of not missing work, but there's just something extraordinary pleasurable about being in a bar or arena on a March afternoon watching college basketball. Life just feels good.

ive gone back and forth on this 'dilemma' for years.

after decades of research, ive concluded that the best way to maximize both your enjoyment and time...is to be the varsity matchup of either session.

either one works, but you will have to adjust your mindset and 'intake'.

no matter who is playing, the noon tip always feels like the Thursday of an east coast US Open golf match.

wait, what??!! tigger is through 13 and Phil is through 9?? some schmuck finished -10?? gtown-nova is at the half?? wake is beating unc by 13??

slow down here, wait a second...im only on my 3rd beer.

and if Cuse is playing in it...once it ends its like...now what??

with a 2 (230) start, you have the afternoon, then your game...then the evening to party. always a good time.

the 7pmers are always too rushed. the afternoon crowd empties into the bars. the commuters are all over the place. people choose to work the day and now theyre running in sober, all annoyed at the crowd. then you leave a good time at the bar and cheap beers to go inside and pay 4x the amount for 1/2 the booze. likely having missed 8minutes of game time by the time you sit down.

the 9 (930) speak for themselves as youve then had a full day filled with fun, booze, hoop, anticipation and excitement...and if you are home watching...of course you want the late.

 

[Eric15]

ive gone back and forth on this 'dilemma' for years.

after decades of research, ive concluded that the best way to maximize both your enjoyment and time...is to be the varsity matchup of either session.

either one works, but you will have to adjust your mindset and 'intake'.

no matter who is playing, the noon tip always feels like the Thursday of an east coast US Open golf match.

wait, what??!! tigger is through 13 and Phil is through 9?? some schmuck finished -10?? gtown-nova is at the half?? wake is beating unc by 13??

slow down here, wait a second...im only on my 3rd beer.

and if Cuse is playing in it...once it ends its like...now what??

with a 2 (230) start, you have the afternoon, then your game...then the evening to party. always a good time.

the 7pmers are always too rushed. the afternoon crowd empties into the bars. the commuters are all over the place. people choose to work the day and now theyre running in sober, all annoyed at the crowd. then you leave a good time at the bar and cheap beers to go inside and pay 4x the amount for 1/2 the booze. likely having missed 8minutes of game time by the time you sit down.

the 9 (930) speak for themselves as youve then had a full day filled with fun, booze, hoop, anticipation and excitement...and if you are home watching...of course you want the late.

You're the man, Kaiser. You're like Aristotle crossed with Artie Lange. You coming down to DC for the ACCT?

 

[KaiserUEO]

You're the man, Kaiser. You're like Aristotle crossed with Artie Lange. You coming down to DC for the ACCT?

some year, but ill just wait for them to bring it to me.

Brooklyn in '17 & '18 will be interesting for sure...

 

[adk(roc)CUSE]

I can't decide if I prefer playing in the afternoon or evening. The evening is more convenient in terms of not missing work, but there's just something extraordinary pleasurable about being in a bar or arena on a March afternoon watching college basketball. Life just feels good.

I agree with this sentiment completely. Just happens my current work schedule makes Wed, Thurs day games tough to catch. But I've always loved the afternoon games prior. Especially when you win early and can enjoy the rest of the day. I do have fridays off. While this does nothing as far as ACC tournament day games go I'll still thankfully get my weekday afternoon March hoops.

 

[jncuse]

As a 'Cuse fan, I certainly want us to win every game, BUT... it might help us more to only have one bye than getting a double. That way, we should be able to pick up at least one win in the ACC tourney against a team like Vtech or the like. This could be big come NCAA tourney selection. No cupcakes for those teams with double byes. Just look at UNC who would play us as their first game.

If we get a double bye we are a lock. So let's get that double bye.

The notion that a cupcake win in tourney week is "big" if we are a bubble team is illogical.

A game against BC, Wake, or NC ST in the first round of the ACC tourney does nothing for our resume.

There is not a magic win total. There is a win total in the regular season that should put us in the RPI range for closer examination of our entire body of work. That number is nine -- is it enough or not enough when the committee first meets. -- could be yes, could be no.

But early in selection week they should do an early assessment of who could be in, who could be out, who is really straddling that line. This will be done before our first game.

This is the key - If for some reason we are on the outside or right on n that line at this point, we need something of substance for us to move up or distinguish ourselves (or have someone do something bad).

• Beating Wake Forest or NC St is not something of substance that will move you up tourney week. It is not a top 50 win, not a top 100 win. Those are the metrics that are being evaluated.
• A team ahead of you, or on the same level as you, losing to a bad team is something that will move you up, even if you just went 0-1 and lost to a tourney or NIT team.
• If you lose to Wake or NC St, and are on the line, you are done

But here is the kicker -- If you were just "in" before your first game, you may not lose that spot with a loss in the first round against a decent team. But you will certainly lose that "in" spot with a loss to a bad team.

Nothing to be gained from playing a bad team in the conference tournament. It's only a risk.

 

[Alsacs]

If we beat Pitt we will be 6th or 7th
Top 3 will be UVA, UNC, Miami,
Duke/Notre Dame 4th-5th
Clemson, Syracuse, Florida State, Pitt will be 6th thru 9th in some order
Virginia Tech 10th
Georgia Tech/NC State 11th-12th
Wake Forest 13th
Boston College 14th

 

[gbo]

If you look at his avatar he is a Clemson fan. I didn't understand what he was saying either until I saw that. He is talking about who Clemson is playing.

My fault guys. Should have stated that in the message.

 

[Knicks411]

If we beat Pitt we will be 6th or 7th
Top 3 will be UVA, UNC, Miami,
Duke/Notre Dame 4th-5th
Clemson, Syracuse, Florida State, Pitt will be 6th thru 9th in some order
Virginia Tech 10th
Georgia Tech/NC State 11th-12th
Wake Forest 13th
Boston College 14th

Yeah, I think with a win over Pitt 6 or 7 is probably where we end up, the real difference there is as a 6 you'd probably get BC in round 1, and as a 7 you'd get Va tech in round 1, and then the 6 plays the 3 in round 2 and the 7 plays the 2. There's a pretty big difference between Va Tech and BC, at least based on how we've done against them this year.

The Pomeroy projections have Miami, UNC, and UVA all tying for first at 13-5, so it's kind of impossible to figure out who will finish where. (We'll have a better idea by Monday night though; Miami goes to Chapel Hill Saturday and hosts UVA Monday) There probably isn't much to pick between the teams, but my gut feeling says I'd rather play Miami than the other 2 teams.

 

[sugrad68]

We lost the Louisville game as most expected. A shame we didn't play better but we can't change anything. To be a lock for the tournament we must be: 1) 9-9 in conference and win at least one ACC tournament game, or 2) go 10-8 in conference and even if we're upset in the first ACC tournament game we should be in. Pitt obviously is a huge game because both teams are fighting to make the tournament and a win really helps either team. If SU loses that game, NC State becomes even more huge. We lose at UNC. But FSU has gone downhill so beating them at their place is not out of the picture at all.