Ok, right now, we only know 2 scores for sure. The most recent score out there is the 2009-2010 score (scores come out the May following the end of the school year; so in May 2011, the scores for the season ending 2010 came out. This may, we'll get last year's score. Etc). Prior to the last 2 years, the NCAA just has the rolling4 year average; I think we'll be able to back into some of the single season scores that way, but probably not exactly.
I misspoke before; we aren't necessarily fine for next year, but what I meant to say was that any defections this year will not hurt usn ext year, because the score won't be out until after the tournament next year. You need a 4 year score of 930 to be eligible. (We wouldn't have been eligible this year, if that were the standard).
The two scores we know, like i said, are 2009 and 2010. 2009 was awful, 865. 2010 was perfect, 1000. Ottomets and I discussed this in a thread a few weeks back, the score for last year should be pretty close to 1,000. Riley transferred, but you are able to apply for a waiver in that case, and I believe Dash was known to be a pretty solid student. (And he was eligible for EMU this year, so there shouldn't be an issue there).
So for the 2013 tournament, the 4 year run goes from 2008-2011. The 2011 score we don't know yet, but we can speculate that it is close to 1000. A 4 year average of 930 equates to 3,720 points over the 4 year period. We know for sure we got 1,865 points between 2009 and 2010. Meaning we'd need 1,855 points from 2008 and 2011 to be safe. Did anyone leave school after the 2008 season? Donte went pro, I don't know about his standing. Other than him, I believe we were fine? (Josh Wright, did he leave that year?) Anyway, our 4 year point total was 3712, subtracting out the 2 years we know about leaves 1,847 points for the 2007 and 2008 seasons. In the worst case scenario, for our purposes, we scored 1000 points in 2007 and 847 in 2008. If that were the case, we would be screwed. It would mean that no matter what, even with a 1,000 score for last year, we'd be at 3.712 points, meaning we'd be short.
However, I don't think that is the most likely distribution of points. Averaging the 1,847 over the 2 years gives us 923.5 per year. If that were the case, we'd only need a 931.5 for last year to be fine, a hurdle we should easily clear. Getting back to the 2008 score; I don't think it is very good. Our 4 year average went from a 955 to a 932 the first year the 2008 score was involved, meaning that the 2008 score was 92 points lower than the corresponding year that fell off the 4 year period. So the absolute best it could was 908 (assuming the year replacing it was 1,000). Let's say it was 875, which is still a pretty bad score. If it was 875, we'd need a 980 from last year to get to the 930 average. All that being said, the school seems to think we are ok for 2013, which works for me because they know their 2008 score and probably know the 2011 score as well.
Which brings us to 2014. We still have that 865 score in there, and we'll have the bad score this year. The school can't know if we're fine for 2014, because the year isn't over yet. The math is basically the same here as what I outlined, we're jsut throwing out the 2008 score and replacing it with the 2012 score. We still would need 1,855 points between 2011 and 2012, to add to the 1,865 we picked up in 2009 and 2010. We are assuming the 2011 score is close to 1,000; if that is the case we'd need an 855 from this year to be safe. So every point less 1,000 we get for last year is every point over 855 we need to get this year. Considering we got an 865 from 2009, a score in that range could definitely be in play for this year, meaning last year better have been close to 1,000.
