APR - One More Time

[HoustonCuse]

Ok, right now, we only know 2 scores for sure. The most recent score out there is the 2009-2010 score (scores come out the May following the end of the school year; so in May 2011, the scores for the season ending 2010 came out. This may, we'll get last year's score. Etc). Prior to the last 2 years, the NCAA just has the rolling4 year average; I think we'll be able to back into some of the single season scores that way, but probably not exactly...

Thanks much for this. If Dion and Fab are our only APR hits this year, do you know what the score would be?

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Just a question, does anyone know how online or independent course work fits into this?

 

[Knicks411]

Thanks much for this. If Dion and Fab are our only APR hits this year, do you know what the score would be?

Ok, well it's a point for being enrolled and a point for good standing, I believe. I think we have 12 kids on scholarship this year? You get 2 points per semester, one for being enrolled and the other for being in good standing.

So let's say 10 of the kids were 4-4. It's entirely possible Fab is 1-4 (not in good standing for second semester, and won't be retained). Dion would be 3-4 (in good standing for second semester, but not retained). That would put us at 44/48, which is a score of 920, which means we should be fine.

Full disclosure: I am not entirely sure I did everything the correct way here, and I don't know how Mookie fits into the equation.

 

[HoustonCuse]

Ok, well it's a point for being enrolled and a point for good standing, I believe. I think we have 12 kids on scholarship this year? You get 2 points per semester, one for being enrolled and the other for being in good standing.

So let's say 10 of the kids were 4-4. It's entirely possible Fab is 1-4 (not in good standing for second semester, and won't be retained). Dion would be 3-4 (in good standing for second semester, but not retained). That would put us at 44/48, which is a score of 920, which means we should be fine.

Full disclosure: I am not entirely sure I did everything the correct way here, and I don't know how Mookie fits into the equation.

If Dion doesn't complete the semester we are at 43/48 though correct? 896. Also wouldn't Fab be 2-4?

 

[Garbs]

It seems like all top 25 programs must have this problem of players leaving early for the NBA. UK's entire team leaves every year. How do all these schools avoid APR penalties? What are we doing differently that needs to change? What the NCAA wants is for schools to not recruit these type of kids.

it is probably easier to stay in good standing and on pace to graduate for one year than it is for guys like Fab or Dion in their second year, which I imagine is what helps UK, they are gone before they take any real classes

 

[Knicks411]

If Dion doesn't complete the semester we are at 43/48 though correct? 896. Also wouldn't Fab be 2-4?

Yeah I think I was double counting on Fab. (Hate when work gets in the way of posting).

On Dion, see, I am not totally sure how it works. I was thinking Dion gets credit because he was in good standing as of the second semester (IE, he was eligible to play for the second semester). But you are right, it probably means you need to be in good standing at the end of the semester.

But I think in the end, I made a mistake one way on Dion, and the other way on Fab, and it should balance out? They each would theoretically be 2-4, meaning we're back to 44/48. (Can someone confirm we have 12 kids on scholarship; I believe Reese got one, right?)

I'm also not sure how Mookie fits into this.

 

[caw]

Ok, well it's a point for being enrolled and a point for good standing, I believe. I think we have 12 kids on scholarship this year? You get 2 points per semester, one for being enrolled and the other for being in good standing.

So let's say 10 of the kids were 4-4. It's entirely possible Fab is 1-4 (not in good standing for second semester, and won't be retained). Dion would be 3-4 (in good standing for second semester, but not retained). That would put us at 44/48, which is a score of 920, which means we should be fine.

Full disclosure: I am not entirely sure I did everything the correct way here, and I don't know how Mookie fits into the equation.

Just FYI, I believe if Dion is in good standing but leaves to play professionally that point can be just voided, meaning he would be a 3/3 not a 3/4. If he leaves not in good standing I believe he would be a 2/4.

 

[Knicks411]

I was trying to back into the 2009 score. We'll assume we lost 2 points each from Jonny, Eric, and Paul. If they had 12 players on scholarship, and lost those 6 points, they'd be at 42/48, which is 875 and not the 865 they ended up with. Does anyone know the scholarship situation for last year?

Guys I know for sure:
Rick, Dion, CJ, Scoop, BMK, Triche, Mookie, Kris, Dash, Southerland, Melo. That's 11, I'm terrible at knowing if we gave any of the walkons schollies.

The 10 who stayed didn't have any issues. Dash transferred, but I am not sure if we can petition for the points back. He transferred after the season ended, so I am also not sure how that works. Even if we lose 2 points for him, we're sitting at 955 for last year. He was in good standing when he left, as far as we know, so maybe we lose one point? 43/44 is 978, which means we'd need 877 from this year to be eligible in 2014 and the same score from 2008 to be eligible next year. Also, the score would go up if we had someone else on scholarship.

Just FYI, I believe if Dion is in good standing but leaves to play professionally that point can be just voided, meaning he would be a 3/3 not a 3/4. If he leaves not in good standing I believe he would be a 2/4.

Thanks, I knew there was something about the denominator going down, couldn't remember the details. Perhaps this would be the same situation for Riley and this transfer? Unfortunately, based on what I read here, Dion won't be leaving in good academic standing...

 

[HoustonCuse]

Just FYI, I believe if Dion is in good standing but leaves to play professionally that point can be just voided, meaning he would be a 3/3 not a 3/4. If he leaves not in good standing I believe he would be a 2/4.

That point can't be voided. That was the thing JB said was "nuts". You can appeal to get rid of transfers but not the situation where you leave in bad standing (not finishing out the semester).

 

[Knicks411]

That point can't be voided. That was the thing JB said was "nuts". You can appeal to get rid of transfers but not the situation where you leave in bad standing (not finishing out the semester).

Yeah but i think Caw is saying if he did leave early, but in good academic standing, you could petition.

 

[dinno28]

JB needs to give any unused scholarships to the better student athlete walk ons

 

[HoustonCuse]

Funny: getting Noel could be a program killer... (depending of course on how he leaves at the end of next year).

 

[caw]

Yeah but i think Caw is saying if he did leave early, but in good academic standing, you could petition.

That's what I meant.

 

[HoustonCuse]

That's what I meant.

Got it. I'm just assuming it won't be the case because the 'good standing' call is made at the end of the semester not the day the kid leaves.

 

[Knicks411]

Something else I was just thinking about, we lost some scholarships because of the Jonny, Eric, and Paul leaving that one year. That could continue to hurt us for no other reason than the fewer guys you have on scholarship, the larger the impact of one guy leaving.

Like, say you have 12 on scholarship, and you have one guy drop 2 points for you. That's 46/48=958. But say you have 13 on schollie; that's 50/52=962. If you had 14, it's 54/56=964. Granted, it's not a big deal (like a point or two to your 4 year score), but every little point could count, and we were at 928 this year, 2 points from the magic number.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Granted, it's not a big deal (like a point or two to your 4 year score), but every little point could count, and we were at 928 this year, 2 points from the magic number.

On that note, with the way this is calculated, I'm really curious as to what makes 930 the magic number.

 

[bnoro]

Something else I was just thinking about, we lost some scholarships because of the Jonny, Eric, and Paul leaving that one year. That could continue to hurt us for no other reason than the fewer guys you have on scholarship, the larger the impact of one guy leaving.

Like, say you have 12 on scholarship, and you have one guy drop 2 points for you. That's 46/48=958. But say you have 13 on schollie; that's 50/52=962. If you had 14, it's 54/56=964. Granted, it's not a big deal (like a point or two to your 4 year score), but every little point could count, and we were at 928 this year, 2 points from the magic number.

Can't have more than 13 on scholarship.

 

[caw]

Thanks, I knew there was something about the denominator going down, couldn't remember the details. Perhaps this would be the same situation for Riley and this transfer? Unfortunately, based on what I read here, Dion won't be leaving in good academic standing...

Transfers can have the point gained back, I believe, if in good standing. I believe the GPA has to be a 2.6 or so (I'm going off the top of my head, so it would probably be better to look it up).

I might have the two confused and it's professional means add the point and transfer means drop the denominator. It can make a big difference.

 

[TexanMark]

It seems like all top 25 programs must have this problem of players leaving early for the NBA. UK's entire team leaves every year. How do all these schools avoid APR penalties? What are we doing differently that needs to change? What the NCAA wants is for schools to not recruit these type of kids.

But UK has an entire institution created to coddle and ensure the players are qualified.

 

[sabach]

Can't have more than 13 on scholarship.

After we beat G-Town, their moronic fans talked about how many players we had on our bench at the dome. The consenus of the Hoya fans was that the only reason we had so many players on our team was so that we could get around the APR because the "smart bench riders" would bring the APR average up. The only problem is that the APR only applies to scholarship players. Good argument Hoyas.

 

[Knicks411]

Can't have more than 13 on scholarship.

Ha, I was thinking NBA roster size and going with 15. Never mind.

 

[OttoMets]

...

So for the 2013 tournament, the 4 year run goes from 2008-2011. The 2011 score we don't know yet, but we can speculate that it is close to 1000. A 4 year average of 930 equates to 3,720 points over the 4 year period. We know for sure we got 1,865 points between 2009 and 2010. Meaning we'd need 1,855 points from 2008 and 2011 to be safe. Did anyone leave school after the 2008 season? Donte went pro, I don't know about his standing. Other than him, I believe we were fine? (Josh Wright, did he leave that year?) Anyway, our 4 year point total was 3712, subtracting out the 2 years we know about leaves 1,847 points for the 2007 and 2008 seasons. In the worst case scenario, for our purposes, we scored 1000 points in 2007 and 847 in 2008. If that were the case, we would be screwed. It would mean that no matter what, even with a 1,000 score for last year, we'd be at 3.712 points, meaning we'd be short.

However, I don't think that is the most likely distribution of points. Averaging the 1,847 over the 2 years gives us 923.5 per year. If that were the case, we'd only need a 931.5 for last year to be fine, a hurdle we should easily clear. Getting back to the 2008 score; I don't think it is very good. Our 4 year average went from a 955 to a 932 the first year the 2008 score was involved, meaning that the 2008 score was 92 points lower than the corresponding year that fell off the 4 year period. So the absolute best it could was 908 (assuming the year replacing it was 1,000). Let's say it was 875, which is still a pretty bad score. If it was 875, we'd need a 980 from last year to get to the 930 average. All that being said, the school seems to think we are ok for 2013, which works for me because they know their 2008 score and probably know the 2011 score as well.

Which brings us to 2014. We still have that 865 score in there, and we'll have the bad score this year. The school can't know if we're fine for 2014, because the year isn't over yet. The math is basically the same here as what I outlined, we're jsut throwing out the 2008 score and replacing it with the 2012 score. We still would need 1,855 points between 2011 and 2012, to add to the 1,865 we picked up in 2009 and 2010. We are assuming the 2011 score is close to 1,000; if that is the case we'd need an 855 from this year to be safe. So every point less 1,000 we get for last year is every point over 855 we need to get this year. Considering we got an 865 from 2009, a score in that range could definitely be in play for this year, meaning last year better have been close to 1,000.

All of this sounds right. I'll add that 2008 also includes the loss of Devin Brennan-McBride, which is a complete mystery - we don't know if he a.) completed his fall semester or b.) enrolled in another school.

As an aside, everyone who follows Syracuse basketball knows that Boeheim's word shouldn't necessarily be taken as the truth, especially if his claim is made as a defensive response to perceived criticism. What was he going to say? Our APR stinks and we're in huge trouble?

 

[OttoMets]

Thanks much for this. If Dion and Fab are our only APR hits this year, do you know what the score would be?

923. If Mookie returns next year, I think that'll be our score. If he left for good in between the semesters and doesn't transfer, it'd be 904. And if he left for good and wasn't eligible when he left, it's 885. So Mookie's an important guy right now.

 

[zeekay]

But UK has an entire institution created to coddle and ensure the players are qualified.

Agreed. Basically the APR crap will punish only those schools that actually make their athletes take classes. It will do nothing to curb recruiting of "one and dones" that NCAA wants. All of UK's 1 year players have 4.0 GPAs every single year. How is a mystery.

Regardless, this rule will benefit UK tremendously as they won't have to compete with SU/UCONN/etc. for national championship every year due to other schools getting bans here and there. Also a huge recruiting advantage when you know you will never have APR problems.

 

[OttoMets]

Ok, well it's a point for being enrolled and a point for good standing, I believe. I think we have 12 kids on scholarship this year? You get 2 points per semester, one for being enrolled and the other for being in good standing.

So let's say 10 of the kids were 4-4. It's entirely possible Fab is 1-4 (not in good standing for second semester, and won't be retained). Dion would be 3-4 (in good standing for second semester, but not retained). That would put us at 44/48, which is a score of 920, which means we should be fine.

Full disclosure: I am not entirely sure I did everything the correct way here, and I don't know how Mookie fits into the equation.

I get a slightly different number, partially because I assumed that Dion will be 0/2 in May (and that Fab is 2/4 for the year, not 3/4) and partially because I counted 13 scholarship guys.

Again, not sure how to count Mookie; I imagine we sit at 13 for the full year - even though he's not here, he's expected to be here.