Are the first four games in any way predictive of the rest of the year?

[A Clockwork Orange]

I would say not really. This team isn't fully formed, and a lot of that comes down to the QB and WR level. I think there are two things we know for certain, and a lot of uncertainties everywhere else. Here are the two certainties:

1. Sean Tucker is really good. So much so that he is showing up on some Heisman lists (premature I believe, but a testament to his amazing first four weeks).
2. The defense is good, but I hesitate to call them "great" yet. They have kept us in every game, and have made big plays when they needed to.

I opened up ESPN today to see if any of our guys were on the national stats lists, and found this jump right out at me:

We have Sean leading the nation in rushing, and Marlowe Wax and Cody Roscoe leading, and third in sacks nationally. Whoa. I don't think anyone would have seen our guys in that company after the first third of the season.

Other than the two things listed above I think we still have a lot of uncertainties that have yet to be fully figured out yet. Here's a list:

1. Are we a good team, or are we playing pretty weak teams? I think it's a combo of both.
   1. Rutgers surprised in a loss yesterday in keeping it close with Michigan the whole way at the Big House, and having a chance to tie it in the final minutes. I think they are better than I thought, but not anywhere near a top 25 team.
   2. Ohio seems to have taken a major step back this year. They are 0-4 and were thumped 35-6 to Northwestern yesterday. They also lost to Duquesne and were boat raced by a solid Louisiana team.
   3. Albany is Albany. An FCS team that was physically overmatched.
   4. Liberty. I don't think the Flames are as strong as they were last year. Willis is the real deal but the defense and offense have not shown much this year in their four games. It's a good win for sure but I'm not sure they are anywhere near the Top-25 this year.
2. Our OL has taken a step forward, but how much? Moving Servais to Center is interesting, and he had a shaky first game. More time there will help him solve those issues. He's a super senior so I think he'll do well there the rest of the season. They certainly have done a good job opening holes for Tucker, and the pass-pro is better this year, if not as improved as the run-blocking. Honestly? The guys are getting older and Steve Schmidt is a phenomenal OL coach. Anywhere he has coached his teams have come close to leading the country in rushing. He knows what he's doing. I hope we can hold onto him. To me, the OL is still an incomplete grade. We are now coming into the conference season. These teams know our offense better and will put significant pressure on the run game from here on out. The OL is going to be severely tested.
3. This brings me to my next undecided section. QB's and WR's. It's obvious Babers is playing this season much the way Coach P. wisely played the '01 season. In that season we had a stud defensive player and we leaned on him all year. We had a competent offense that did enough to get us wins. This year we have a stud RB, and a solid defense that will make it difficult for teams to score. With ALL of that said - the QB and WR part of the offense has been a C to D for me this year. Taj is pretty good but has no one to compliment him STILL, and two QB's who have major deficiencies in their game. Shrader's arm is noodle-like thus far and Tommy has always been prone to the mental yips, even dating back to his senior year in high school. He's a stud in practice settings but has some issues to overcome when playing high-level football. He seems like he's playing better this year, so I was surprised that Shrader took the whole game against Liberty. His passing was...not good. He missed receivers downfield by a LOT and seems more content to look downfield and then scramble for yards. Conference teams will spot that and adjust. If we don't get a passing game fast, this team's ceiling will be lower than it should be given the defense, OL, and running back we have.

To me, the rest of the season hinges on SU being able to make teams pay for stacking the box. The problem here is typically when teams stack the box they play aggressively one-on-one on the outside. Physical CB's like Clemson has will absolutely abuse our WR's. When there are eight in the box, SU is going to have to throw to loosen teams up. 6-15 for 77 yards ain't gonna cut it against most of the rest of our schedule.

The good news is that the rest of the league seems vulnerable. I watched a lot of ACC football yesterday and Friday and honestly the only team I'm seriously impressed with right now is Wake Forest. They look like the potential best team in the league. No one else has stood out. I think Clemson is going to do well, but their offense is a mess right now. So here's my shot at a prediction for the rest of the year:

• @ FSU: I have a bad feeling about this game. The homer in me says we win, but I think it will be closer than it has a right to be given the Seminoles issues. SU: 27 FSU: 21.
• vs. Wake Forest: I think we lose this one. Their offense is good, their defense is good. That's good enough for the ACC this year. Wake: 30 SU: 17.
• vs. Clemson: This will be an interesting game. It's going to be low-scoring, but I think Clemson has a good chance to just completely shut our offense down if we can't figure out the QB and WR riddle that has plagued us for three years now. Clemson: 17 SU: 7.
• @ VPI: Tech isn't great, but playing at Lane is always difficult. Especially if this is a night game. I'm giving the Jokies the edge, but I think this will be an interesting game to follow as these teams find out more about who they are in the next few weeks. VPI: 27 SU: 23.
• vs. BC: The Beagles beat Mizzou yesterday. They are undefeated. For some reason, I think SU pulls this one out. SU: 34 BC: 24.
• @ L'Ville: I think the defense will keep this somewhat close but Louisville will close the door in the 4th. 'Ville: 26 SU: 17.
• @NC State: NC State beat Clemson last night, but neither team was incredibly impressive. I think SU shocks the world and somehow pulls this one out: SU: 20 NC State: 16
• vs. Pitt: Pitt is not looking good thus far, but always seems to pull a rabbit out of its hat against us. I don't think that happens this year. The defense rattles Pickett and SU wins a game that is more of a blowout than the final score indicates. SU: 31 Pitt: 21

I think the formula is there. Defense and running. This team will not score as much as in the past but won't allow as much either. It all comes down to a threat through the air. This schedule is not daunting but SU isn't really daunting thus far either. I envision a 4-4 record the rest of the way for a 7-5 total record.

Granted, the above game predictions are complete crapshoots and halfway through I realized it was a futile effort to continue, but I am a sucker for futile efforts so I pressed on. I honestly think SU is good enough to play with every team on its remaining schedule but potentially bad enough to lose every game on its remaining schedule too. 4-4 seems about right, but who the hell those four wins and four losses are is completely arbitrary and random at this point.

 

[Walshjfii]

Great writeup, I think we can flip Clemson though. Hopefully they dont have there Offense figured out by then. With how things look today it seem like whatever team makes a simple mistake could be the team that gets the L. Tucker can create mistake.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

I don't trust the OL with pass blocking and don't think that can be totally fixed this year. But the snaps and penalties can and should be fixed. That will go a long way.

We need to take a deep shot each Q to Alford and hope to hit on one. That will keep a D honest. We need to get Taj quick passes and let him do his slippery thing. Would like to see more WR screens to our fast guys as well. We can stretch the D horizontally to keep them honest vs the run.

I like the use of RBs on dump offs. But we need to use Tucker a little less. We can't give him 30+ touches a game. Have faith in the other guys to be productive.

 

[A Clockwork Orange]

I don't trust the OL with pass blocking and don't think that can be totally fixed this year. But the snaps and penalties can and should be fixed. That will go a long way.

We need to take a deep shot each Q to Alford and hope to hit on one. That will keep a D honest. We need to get Taj quick passes and let him do his slippery thing. Would like to see more WR screens to our fast guys as well. We can stretch the D horizontally to keep them honest vs the run.

I like the use of RBs on dump offs. But we need to use Tucker a little less. We can't give him 30+ touches a game. Have faith in the other guys to be productive.

Agreed, they haven't shown enough in pass-pro, but to be fair the team hasn't passed much. They need to get rid of the stupid penalties. That's something I think they can fix. I think the snaps will be corrected within the next few weeks. In my experience, a lot of that comes down to repetition. The more reps, the better he'll be.

 

[A Clockwork Orange]

Great writeup, I think we can flip Clemson though. Hopefully they dont have there Offense figured out by then. With how things look today it seem like whatever team makes a simple mistake could be the team that gets the L. Tucker can create mistake.

That's my thought on Clemson as well. If we can catch them with their offense still being the slog that it is, we may pull it out. Their defense is elite though, and we will need more from our QBs and WRs to give us a chance.

 

[gbo]

That's my thought on Clemson as well. If we can catch them with their offense still being the slog that it is, we may pull it out. Their defense is elite though, and we will need more from our QBs and WRs to give us a chance.

It appears that our two best defensive players are done for the year plus we've shown nothing in regard to scoring more than 2 touchdowns. I'd flip your score prediction.

 

[upperdeck]

Saw a stat in one of the late games about those deep throws and how you need to hit them 30% or more. Our guys running wide open need to be hit at a higher rate.. At the worst you need to make it a catchable ball.

ODU played Liberty and Wake to basically the same game and had UB to go into OT but missed an XP.

Liberty has athletes , Wake has that scheme that messes with peoples heads.

 

[orangenauburn]

Saw a stat in one of the late games about those deep throws and how you need to hit them 30% or more. Our guys running wide open need to be hit at a higher rate.. At the worst you need to make it a catchable ball.

ODU played Liberty and Wake to basically the same game and had UB to go into OT but missed an XP.

Liberty has athletes , Wake has that scheme that messes with peoples heads.

Tennessee v Florida

Had Tennessee hit just one of the six they threw at Pitt in 1st quarter, they'd have put the pressure on Pitt and probably won that game

Edit. Tennessee was 0/13 before Hendon Hooker hit one last night. 7% clip and yes the announcer pointed out 30% is the bottom line number on those shots

 

[CuseCactus]

Great post Clockwork. Thanks.

 

[orangecuse]

I think being 3-1 has played out as many had seen it based upon the weak first four games. Some wishful thinkers pegged us probably being 4-0.

Ohio U and Albany are simply very bad win-less football teams. We got beat by a seemingly better than anticipated Rutgers team and escaped with a W Friday night against an apparent overall average team with a very dynamic QB. I say average as their wins have also come against quite inferior competition in Campbell, Troy & Old Dominion. Even if Liberty end's up with a winning/good record at season's end, they have what appears to be a pretty favorable remaining schedule.

Based on same, I think the first four games has pretty much followed suit. So, IMO, I don't think it's necessarily indicative of how the rest of the year plays out. IMO, at least in this moment, it would not surprise me in the least if we still struggle to get to 4-5 wins this season. I think this weekend's game against FSU (albeit win-less themselves) will go a long way in determining how the remaining of the season will play out.

 

[hoopsupstate]

I think we need to start giving the offensive line some credit. Tucker isn’t leading the country in rushing if his line isn’t doing something right.

 

[orangecuse]

I think we need to start giving the offensive line some credit. Tucker isn’t leading the country in rushing if his line isn’t doing something right.

Ohio U and Albany are horrible teams, so it's difficult to gauge. Tucker had 54 yards on 13 carries (including one run for 24 yards) against Rutgers. How good is Liberty's D? Well, based upon their other opponents (weak sauce) to date, it's again difficult at this time to measure just how solid this O line actually is.

A lot will be said in the coming weeks ahead.

 

[SWC75]

I would say not really. This team isn't fully formed, and a lot of that comes down to the QB and WR level. I think there are two things we know for certain, and a lot of uncertainties everywhere else. Here are the two certainties:

1. Sean Tucker is really good. So much so that he is showing up on some Heisman lists (premature I believe, but a testament to his amazing first four weeks).
2. The defense is good, but I hesitate to call them "great" yet. They have kept us in every game, and have made big plays when they needed to.

I opened up ESPN today to see if any of our guys were on the national stats lists, and found this jump right out at me:

View attachment 206940

We have Sean leading the nation in rushing, and Marlowe Wax and Cody Roscoe leading, and third in sacks nationally. Whoa. I don't think anyone would have seen our guys in that company after the first third of the season.

Other than the two things listed above I think we still have a lot of uncertainties that have yet to be fully figured out yet. Here's a list:

1. Are we a good team, or are we playing pretty weak teams? I think it's a combo of both.
   1. Rutgers surprised in a loss yesterday in keeping it close with Michigan the whole way at the Big House, and having a chance to tie it in the final minutes. I think they are better than I thought, but not anywhere near a top 25 team.
   2. Ohio seems to have taken a major step back this year. They are 0-4 and were thumped 35-6 to Northwestern yesterday. They also lost to Duquesne and were boat raced by a solid Louisiana team.
   3. Albany is Albany. An FCS team that was physically overmatched.
   4. Liberty. I don't think the Flames are as strong as they were last year. Willis is the real deal but the defense and offense have not shown much this year in their four games. It's a good win for sure but I'm not sure they are anywhere near the Top-25 this year.
2. Our OL has taken a step forward, but how much? Moving Servais to Center is interesting, and he had a shaky first game. More time there will help him solve those issues. He's a super senior so I think he'll do well there the rest of the season. They certainly have done a good job opening holes for Tucker, and the pass-pro is better this year, if not as improved as the run-blocking. Honestly? The guys are getting older and Steve Schmidt is a phenomenal OL coach. Anywhere he has coached his teams have come close to leading the country in rushing. He knows what he's doing. I hope we can hold onto him. To me, the OL is still an incomplete grade. We are now coming into the conference season. These teams know our offense better and will put significant pressure on the run game from here on out. The OL is going to be severely tested.
3. This brings me to my next undecided section. QB's and WR's. It's obvious Babers is playing this season much the way Coach P. wisely played the '01 season. In that season we had a stud defensive player and we leaned on him all year. We had a competent offense that did enough to get us wins. This year we have a stud RB, and a solid defense that will make it difficult for teams to score. With ALL of that said - the QB and WR part of the offense has been a C to D for me this year. Taj is pretty good but has no one to compliment him STILL, and two QB's who have major deficiencies in their game. Shrader's arm is noodle-like thus far and Tommy has always been prone to the mental yips, even dating back to his senior year in high school. He's a stud in practice settings but has some issues to overcome when playing high-level football. He seems like he's playing better this year, so I was surprised that Shrader took the whole game against Liberty. His passing was...not good. He missed receivers downfield by a LOT and seems more content to look downfield and then scramble for yards. Conference teams will spot that and adjust. If we don't get a passing game fast, this team's ceiling will be lower than it should be given the defense, OL, and running back we have.

To me, the rest of the season hinges on SU being able to make teams pay for stacking the box. The problem here is typically when teams stack the box they play aggressively one-on-one on the outside. Physical CB's like Clemson has will absolutely abuse our WR's. When there are eight in the box, SU is going to have to throw to loosen teams up. 6-15 for 77 yards ain't gonna cut it against most of the rest of our schedule.

The good news is that the rest of the league seems vulnerable. I watched a lot of ACC football yesterday and Friday and honestly the only team I'm seriously impressed with right now is Wake Forest. They look like the potential best team in the league. No one else has stood out. I think Clemson is going to do well, but their offense is a mess right now. So here's my shot at a prediction for the rest of the year:

• @ FSU: I have a bad feeling about this game. The homer in me says we win, but I think it will be closer than it has a right to be given the Seminoles issues. SU: 27 FSU: 21.
• vs. Wake Forest: I think we lose this one. Their offense is good, their defense is good. That's good enough for the ACC this year. Wake: 30 SU: 17.
• vs. Clemson: This will be an interesting game. It's going to be low-scoring, but I think Clemson has a good chance to just completely shut our offense down if we can't figure out the QB and WR riddle that has plagued us for three years now. Clemson: 17 SU: 7.
• @ VPI: Tech isn't great, but playing at Lane is always difficult. Especially if this is a night game. I'm giving the Jokies the edge, but I think this will be an interesting game to follow as these teams find out more about who they are in the next few weeks. VPI: 27 SU: 23.
• vs. BC: The Beagles beat Mizzou yesterday. They are undefeated. For some reason, I think SU pulls this one out. SU: 34 BC: 24.
• @ L'Ville: I think the defense will keep this somewhat close but Louisville will close the door in the 4th. 'Ville: 26 SU: 17.
• @NC State: NC State beat Clemson last night, but neither team was incredibly impressive. I think SU shocks the world and somehow pulls this one out: SU: 20 NC State: 16
• vs. Pitt: Pitt is not looking good thus far, but always seems to pull a rabbit out of its hat against us. I don't think that happens this year. The defense rattles Pickett and SU wins a game that is more of a blowout than the final score indicates. SU: 31 Pitt: 21

I think the formula is there. Defense and running. This team will not score as much as in the past but won't allow as much either. It all comes down to a threat through the air. This schedule is not daunting but SU isn't really daunting thus far either. I envision a 4-4 record the rest of the way for a 7-5 total record.

Granted, the above game predictions are complete crapshoots and halfway through I realized it was a futile effort to continue, but I am a sucker for futile efforts so I pressed on. I honestly think SU is good enough to play with every team on its remaining schedule but potentially bad enough to lose every game on its remaining schedule too. 4-4 seems about right, but who the hell those four wins and four losses are is completely arbitrary and random at this point.

I see no weak spots on that schedule for a team coming off a 1-10 season. The league may be mediocrity but mediocrity is still a goal here.

We aren't going to do it with ground-and-pound. We need a balanced offense. Whether it's from sudden improvement by GS or going back to Tommy, we need a passing game the other team has to worry about. What we saw Friday night was a victory due to fantastic defensive play but it wasn't a formula for victory.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

I think being 3-1 has played out as many had seen it based upon the weak first four games. Some wishful thinkers pegged us probably being 4-0.

Ohio U and Albany are simply very bad win-less football teams. We got beat by a seemingly better than anticipated Rutgers team and escaped with a W Friday night against an apparent overall average team with a very dynamic QB. I say average as their wins have also come against quite inferior competition in Campbell, Troy & Old Dominion. Even if Liberty end's up with a winning/good record at season's end, they have what appears to be a pretty favorable remaining schedule.

Based on same, I think the first four games has pretty much followed suit. So, IMO, I don't think it's necessarily indicative of how the rest of the year plays out. IMO, at least in this moment, it would not surprise me in the least if we still struggle to get to 4-5 wins this season. I think this weekend's game against FSU (albeit win-less themselves) will go a long way in determining how the remaining of the season will play out.

Don't be fooled, Rutgers sucks.

 

[A Clockwork Orange]

I think we need to start giving the offensive line some credit. Tucker isn’t leading the country in rushing if his line isn’t doing something right.

Agreed. I think they're probably the third-best unit on the team currently behind RBs and LBs. I think the grade on them is incomplete. Davis played a really solid game against Liberty, and Bergeron is really becoming the anchor of the line.

My concern is when you have five or six or seven blocking against eight for the rest of the season how that will stress them. That's why it's imperative we get any type of passing game from the QBs and WRs. My rankings for units on the team looks like this:

1. RBs
2. LBs
3. OL
4. Secondary
5. DL (really a 4B).
6. WRs
7. QBs

 

[A Clockwork Orange]

I see no weak spots on that schedule for a team coming off a 1-10 season. The league may be mediocrity but mediocrity is still a goal here.

We aren't going to do it with ground-and-pound. We need a balanced offense. Whether it's from sudden improvement by GS or going back to Tommy, we need a passing game the other team has to worry about. What we saw Friday night was a victory due to fantastic defensive play but it wasn't a formula for victory.

Absolutely. I think the rest of the season really rests on the progress of the QBs and WRs. I'm not bullish on that progress, as SU has wallowed in that department for the last three years.

 

[GoSU96]

Indicative, not predictive

If they end the year 10th in defense and in the 60s on offense they should have more than six wins

 

[upperdeck]

I think being 3-1 has played out as many had seen it based upon the weak first four games. Some wishful thinkers pegged us probably being 4-0.

Ohio U and Albany are simply very bad win-less football teams. We got beat by a seemingly better than anticipated Rutgers team and escaped with a W Friday night against an apparent overall average team with a very dynamic QB. I say average as their wins have also come against quite inferior competition in Campbell, Troy & Old Dominion. Even if Liberty end's up with a winning/good record at season's end, they have what appears to be a pretty favorable remaining schedule.

Based on same, I think the first four games has pretty much followed suit. So, IMO, I don't think it's necessarily indicative of how the rest of the year plays out. IMO, at least in this moment, it would not surprise me in the least if we still struggle to get to 4-5 wins this season. I think this weekend's game against FSU (albeit win-less themselves) will go a long way in determining how the remaining of the season will play out.

I dont know to know how bad Ohio is other than losing to Duquesne. Do we really think they would beat NW/SU/Lous? Albany the same they lost to SU a top 5 FCS team RI who is solid if nothing else..

Much like I dont think 0-4 FSU is an awful team.

 

[upperdeck]

Absolutely. I think the rest of the season really rests on the progress of the QBs and WRs. I'm not bullish on that progress, as SU has wallowed in that department for the last three years.

AllI know so far is that in Limited reps Alford has gotten free for HR throws. Give him more shots at that. Coach also said he ran the wrong/bad route on one play.. Who knows how many of those he has had.

 

[SWC75]

I dont know to know how bad Ohio is other than losing to Duquesne. Do we really think they would beat NW/SU/Lous? Albany the same they lost to SU a top 5 FCS team RI who is solid if nothing else..

Much like I dont think 0-4 FSU is an awful team.

I know...comparative scores...transitive property...

But North Dakota State 28 Albany 6 and Syracuse 62 Albany 24 still intrigues me.

 

[HtownOrange]

It appears that our two best defensive players are done for the year plus we've shown nothing in regard to scoring more than 2 touchdowns. I'd flip your score prediction.

I was going to mention that Clemson has been beaten up by the injury bug, and bad injuries at that. I still respect the staff and ability to reload, but this may be a favorable shot to down the Tigers this fall. Tom ng is on our side, too, as the game is a few weeks out giving the staff less time to iron out wrinkles brought on by new starters.

I still wish you had beaten the wolf pack. You called, a rock fight from the kickoff.

 

[BillSU]

I would say not really. This team isn't fully formed, and a lot of that comes down to the QB and WR level. I think there are two things we know for certain, and a lot of uncertainties everywhere else. Here are the two certainties:

1. Sean Tucker is really good. So much so that he is showing up on some Heisman lists (premature I believe, but a testament to his amazing first four weeks).
2. The defense is good, but I hesitate to call them "great" yet. They have kept us in every game, and have made big plays when they needed to.

I opened up ESPN today to see if any of our guys were on the national stats lists, and found this jump right out at me:

View attachment 206940

We have Sean leading the nation in rushing, and Marlowe Wax and Cody Roscoe leading, and third in sacks nationally. Whoa. I don't think anyone would have seen our guys in that company after the first third of the season.

Other than the two things listed above I think we still have a lot of uncertainties that have yet to be fully figured out yet. Here's a list:

1. Are we a good team, or are we playing pretty weak teams? I think it's a combo of both.
   1. Rutgers surprised in a loss yesterday in keeping it close with Michigan the whole way at the Big House, and having a chance to tie it in the final minutes. I think they are better than I thought, but not anywhere near a top 25 team.
   2. Ohio seems to have taken a major step back this year. They are 0-4 and were thumped 35-6 to Northwestern yesterday. They also lost to Duquesne and were boat raced by a solid Louisiana team.
   3. Albany is Albany. An FCS team that was physically overmatched.
   4. Liberty. I don't think the Flames are as strong as they were last year. Willis is the real deal but the defense and offense have not shown much this year in their four games. It's a good win for sure but I'm not sure they are anywhere near the Top-25 this year.
2. Our OL has taken a step forward, but how much? Moving Servais to Center is interesting, and he had a shaky first game. More time there will help him solve those issues. He's a super senior so I think he'll do well there the rest of the season. They certainly have done a good job opening holes for Tucker, and the pass-pro is better this year, if not as improved as the run-blocking. Honestly? The guys are getting older and Steve Schmidt is a phenomenal OL coach. Anywhere he has coached his teams have come close to leading the country in rushing. He knows what he's doing. I hope we can hold onto him. To me, the OL is still an incomplete grade. We are now coming into the conference season. These teams know our offense better and will put significant pressure on the run game from here on out. The OL is going to be severely tested.
3. This brings me to my next undecided section. QB's and WR's. It's obvious Babers is playing this season much the way Coach P. wisely played the '01 season. In that season we had a stud defensive player and we leaned on him all year. We had a competent offense that did enough to get us wins. This year we have a stud RB, and a solid defense that will make it difficult for teams to score. With ALL of that said - the QB and WR part of the offense has been a C to D for me this year. Taj is pretty good but has no one to compliment him STILL, and two QB's who have major deficiencies in their game. Shrader's arm is noodle-like thus far and Tommy has always been prone to the mental yips, even dating back to his senior year in high school. He's a stud in practice settings but has some issues to overcome when playing high-level football. He seems like he's playing better this year, so I was surprised that Shrader took the whole game against Liberty. His passing was...not good. He missed receivers downfield by a LOT and seems more content to look downfield and then scramble for yards. Conference teams will spot that and adjust. If we don't get a passing game fast, this team's ceiling will be lower than it should be given the defense, OL, and running back we have.

To me, the rest of the season hinges on SU being able to make teams pay for stacking the box. The problem here is typically when teams stack the box they play aggressively one-on-one on the outside. Physical CB's like Clemson has will absolutely abuse our WR's. When there are eight in the box, SU is going to have to throw to loosen teams up. 6-15 for 77 yards ain't gonna cut it against most of the rest of our schedule.

The good news is that the rest of the league seems vulnerable. I watched a lot of ACC football yesterday and Friday and honestly the only team I'm seriously impressed with right now is Wake Forest. They look like the potential best team in the league. No one else has stood out. I think Clemson is going to do well, but their offense is a mess right now. So here's my shot at a prediction for the rest of the year:

• @ FSU: I have a bad feeling about this game. The homer in me says we win, but I think it will be closer than it has a right to be given the Seminoles issues. SU: 27 FSU: 21.
• vs. Wake Forest: I think we lose this one. Their offense is good, their defense is good. That's good enough for the ACC this year. Wake: 30 SU: 17.
• vs. Clemson: This will be an interesting game. It's going to be low-scoring, but I think Clemson has a good chance to just completely shut our offense down if we can't figure out the QB and WR riddle that has plagued us for three years now. Clemson: 17 SU: 7.
• @ VPI: Tech isn't great, but playing at Lane is always difficult. Especially if this is a night game. I'm giving the Jokies the edge, but I think this will be an interesting game to follow as these teams find out more about who they are in the next few weeks. VPI: 27 SU: 23.
• vs. BC: The Beagles beat Mizzou yesterday. They are undefeated. For some reason, I think SU pulls this one out. SU: 34 BC: 24.
• @ L'Ville: I think the defense will keep this somewhat close but Louisville will close the door in the 4th. 'Ville: 26 SU: 17.
• @NC State: NC State beat Clemson last night, but neither team was incredibly impressive. I think SU shocks the world and somehow pulls this one out: SU: 20 NC State: 16
• vs. Pitt: Pitt is not looking good thus far, but always seems to pull a rabbit out of its hat against us. I don't think that happens this year. The defense rattles Pickett and SU wins a game that is more of a blowout than the final score indicates. SU: 31 Pitt: 21

I think the formula is there. Defense and running. This team will not score as much as in the past but won't allow as much either. It all comes down to a threat through the air. This schedule is not daunting but SU isn't really daunting thus far either. I envision a 4-4 record the rest of the way for a 7-5 total record.

Granted, the above game predictions are complete crapshoots and halfway through I realized it was a futile effort to continue, but I am a sucker for futile efforts so I pressed on. I honestly think SU is good enough to play with every team on its remaining schedule but potentially bad enough to lose every game on its remaining schedule too. 4-4 seems about right, but who the hell those four wins and four losses are is completely arbitrary and random at this point.

A different take on your in depth, very well done post, Clockwork.

I used to think Fla. St was a very good program no one could beat but that was when Bowden and Jimbo Fisher were coaching them.

1992	ACC	Bobby Bowden	11–1	8–0
1993	ACC	Bobby Bowden	12–1	8–0
1994	ACC	Bobby Bowden	10–1–1	8–0
1995†	ACC	Bobby Bowden	10–2	7–1
1996	ACC	Bobby Bowden	11–1	8–0
1997	ACC	Bobby Bowden	11–1	8–0
1998†	ACC	Bobby Bowden	11–2	7–1
1999	ACC	Bobby Bowden	12–0	8–0
2000	ACC	Bobby Bowden	11–2	8–0
2002	ACC	Bobby Bowden	9–5	7–1
2003	ACC	Bobby Bowden	10–3	7–1
2005	ACC	Bobby Bowden	8–5	5–3
2012	ACC	Jimbo Fisher	12–2	7–1
2013	ACC	Jimbo Fisher	14–0	8–0
2014	ACC	Jimbo Fisher	13–1	8–0

Mike Norvell has two seasons in and his record is 3- 10 .231

If you look at their game against Jacksonville St. you will see that they are vulnerable to the passing game:

2ND QUARTER​
2​	11:08​	JS - Samuel Josh 2 yd rush (Karajic Alen kick), 0 plays, 79 yards, TOP: 06:49	7​	0​
2​	05:01​	FS - Corbin Jashaun 12 yd rush (Fitzgerald Ryan kick), 5 plays, 53 yards, TOP: 01:30	7​	7​
2​	00:09​	FS - Rector Wyatt 2 yd pass from Milton Mckenzie (Fitzgerald Ryan kick), 6 plays, 45 yards, TOP: 01:29	7​	14​
3RD QUARTER​
3​	04:20​	FS - Fitzgerald Ryan 53 yd field goal, 10 plays, 35 yards, TOP: 03:12	7​	17​

��

4TH QUARTER​
4​	04:45​	JS - Edwards Ahmad 23 yd pass from Cooper Zerrick (Karajic Alen kick), 11 plays, 97 yards, TOP: 05:04	14​	17​
4​	00:00​	JS - Philyaw-johnson Damond 59 yd pass from Cooper Zerrick, 0 plays, 83 yards, TOP: 01:32	20​	17​

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A balanced offense when we meet them, running opening up the passing game with Tucker is a good idea but then we have to have a passing game where Shrader is accurate and the receivers are catching the ball. Easier said than done. But I think we can do it and if we focus on nothing but winning football, get in and out with a win we will.

I think this team is on a roll and our record will be much better than the early prognosticators indicated. If we can remain healthy, execute plays offensively and play defense as we did vs Liberty we’re going to have a good year. We’ll see.

Re: recruiting Tennessee and Fla St.:
But collectively, the instability has caused the program to spiral. To see why, look at recruiting.

Because new coaches have so little time to evaluate and recruit before the December signing period, transition classes typically suffer. Another firing makes it worse. Players signed by one coach for his system might not be a match for the next coach and his system.

Eight of the 22 signees from Tennessee’s 2018 transition class (Jones to Pruitt) have transferred. That includes four of the Vols’ eight blue-chip signees.

FSU is in even worse shape. Only seven of the 21 players from Willie Taggart’s first class remain. Seven of the top nine signees have transferred.

 

[Killdozer]

Great write up. I didn't see anything about the coach which has been horrible. Especially the play calling. To me that is the Achilles heel to steady the offense. Gilbert is not good and will hopefully be gone soon.

 

[capeorange]

It appears that our two best defensive players are done for the year plus we've shown nothing in regard to scoring more than 2 touchdowns. I'd flip your score prediction.

Ouch. Hate to see players get hurt.

 

[Shenexon]

I was going to mention that Clemson has been beaten up by the injury bug, and bad injuries at that. I still respect the staff and ability to reload, but this may be a favorable shot to down the Tigers this fall. Tom ng is on our side, too, as the game is a few weeks out giving the staff less time to iron out wrinkles brought on by new starters.

I still wish you had beaten the wolf pack. You called, a rock fight from the kickoff.

One thing noticeable yesterday was the impact of the crowds in several stadiums. BC was a sellout, NC State fans made Clemson uncomfortable, with around five schools playing in front of 50,000 to 80,000 every week so far. Dome attendance hasn't been as large, but it's been loud. The dome is a big advantage. Crowd noise is a major home field advantage. Florida State is one of those places where 70,000 fans gather to cheer their team on. FSU, the team, may not be as good as they'd like, but the fans will excel and put pressure on SU to communicate. How will the team perform on the road?