So how much do you factor in the following:
First year starter
Awful offensive line. Nobody on D-1 has been sacked more than Tommy.
No running game. This is essential to a competent passing game. You usually don't do one without the other.
Playing hurt.
You think that your top 6 or 7 QB's in the ACC with all of those same factors would complete 65% of his passes, for 1,535 yards, and have 12 TD's to 5 picks?
Dungey turned out ok right? Lets look at his first year as a starter:
He played in 8 games.
59% comp
1,298 yards passing
11 Td's 5 picks.
Tommy has played in 2 less games, and has surpassed all of those numbers.
"But that was a Scott Shaefer offense"
In Eric's second year playing in Dino's offense, just like this is Tommy's second year playing in this offense:
In 9 games he completed 59% of his passes, for 2495 yards, 14 TD 9 picks. Tommy will finish with a higher completion percentage, probably only a couple hundred yards short, throw more TD's, and probably less picks.
Keep in mind, that Eric's passing numbers were aided by a more competent running game which if you understand football, you know how important that is for the passing game.
This team is averaging 3.1 ypc, and only 119 yards per game.
Erics freshman year the team ran for 163 yards per game and a 4.4 yard average.
In Erics second year playing in Babers system, the team ran for 161 yards per game and a 4 yard average.
Fix the line in pass protection, and run blocking, and you'll see Tommy flourish. I guarantee it.