Before posting expansion scenarios, please review...FYI

[ORRange]

Doctor @ Alsacs - while I can understand your positions, you guys are just preaching 1 side of the story as gospel. What your not taking into consideration is a couple of things which still need to play out.

1. Swofford & ESPN - they were blindsided so a new reality will sit in where market access becomes more important than team performance - we need to wait for their response
2. NC schools are all governed by BOT - no school goes anywhere unless the BOT decides
3. UVA & VT may be joined at the hip like Okla & Okie st - easier to pick off Marland, Rutgers, Missou, Colorado, Utah - no state government issues

So finally ImperialOramge makes the better argument - B12 offers no advantage and really is the most unstable. The only way the Pac12 can expand is east - B12 territory - they need to poach 4 schools (maybe just 3 with BYU). If the B10 expands I believe Kansas is the most attractive school right now. Finally the SEC is the only wild card here - if the B12 becomes unstable, then it's easy pickings and the B12 implodes.

My view - Pac12 makes the next move by taking 2 from B12.

A better discussion would be an analysis of who would be the PAC12 best candidates to form a "eastern division" to reduce travel costs for those universities further south & east. But I also think B10 swoops in and takes Kansas & one other (to me UConn makes a lot of sense for B1G to lock up the Boston-NYC corridor along with Kansas out West).

It would seem to me that the SEC is a great option to expand with Texas and Okla. Please explain to me what is that stumbling block. If the SEC took those two schools it would keep FSU/Clemson in the ACC and save the day. The ACC would only have to worry about the 2 schools being plucked by B10. Thanks in advance.

 

[chakka3421]

Doctorbombay - ha ha - don't waste your time on a WVA board. My view has changed in that it's really a battle between 2 networks - ESPN & FOX. It's really ESPN's move right now, not SEC or B12.

My view of importance:

1. If a 16 team conference is the end game, the PAC12 must expand an do so next to catch up with the B1G & SEC - so where does it go to get it's next 4 teams?
2. Does ESPN want to give up all rights to the NE corridor and "allow" the B1G - and more importantly FOX, to move further into its Virginia & North Carolina where it has a virtual lock on the market right now?

If I were ESPN - I would want to "lock out" FOX out of the most important and fastest growing markets in the nation - the Southeast. To me this make the ACC really important. Keeping FOX at bay. If they only get Rutgers & Marland, no real harm done. If they allow FOX to make further inroads into the south - to me that would be the dumbest move ESPN could ever make as a sports network.

So this is why I am saying that we need to just wait and see. By the way, doesn't FOX have the media rights to broadcast B12 games? If so, doesn't the potential future outcomes in conference realignment get more interesting than just 1 outcome?

 

[ImperialOrange]

Again, the bevo doesnt make more money than the acc.

The next moves:

Lville to the acc. Strengthens the league and takes a move off the table for the bevo.

OU and Okie St to the pac.

Texas to the B1G.

Notre Dame fully in the ACC.

Down goes Frazier!

 

[DoctorBombay]

Doctorbombay - ha ha - don't waste your time on a WVA board. My view has changed in that it's really a battle between 2 networks - ESPN & FOX. It's really ESPN's move right now, not SEC or B12.

My view of importance:

1. If a 16 team conference is the end game, the PAC12 must expand an do so next to catch up with the B1G & SEC - so where does it go to get it's next 4 teams?
2. Does ESPN want to give up all rights to the NE corridor and "allow" the B1G - and more importantly FOX, to move further into its Virginia & North Carolina where it has a virtual lock on the market right now?

If I were ESPN - I would want to "lock out" FOX out of the most important and fastest growing markets in the nation - the Southeast. To me this make the ACC really important. Keeping FOX at bay. If they only get Rutgers & Marland, no real harm done. If they allow FOX to make further inroads into the south - to me that would be the dumbest move ESPN could ever make as a sports network.

So this is why I am saying that we need to just wait and see. By the way, doesn't FOX have the media rights to broadcast B12 games? If so, doesn't the potential future outcomes in conference realignment get more interesting than just 1 outcome?

Oh, most definitely I stopped going to that board. But the scenarios some of the saner posters were describing, seem to be shaping up as predicted.
Interesting take on Fox vs ESPN, but the still unknown factor is whether the ACC teams will hold their fire, or take the first offer that comes along, ie; MD.
Theres no guarantee that ESPN can wait much longer...any SEC offer to an ACC member will likely be accepted.
ESPN has to fork over more money...substantially more money, to keep them all in line.
Otherwise, Murdoch is the kinda ruthless SOB who'll force their hand regardless.

 

[rrlbees]

Do you think I like saying stuff that hurts SU, my goodness I am one of the few who sees the writing on the wall. I am analyzing the situation in a non-SU bias manner and won't spew positive stuff that isn't true. How is what I said wrong? You make a statement the Big XII is more vulnerable when in fact they aren't. The Big XII is TEXAS, and until Texas doesn't want to be king anymore that conference will survive. There is no Texas in the ACC, Florida State is a national brand in football and North Carolina is a king in basketball, but football is driving the bus. If the Pac-12 expands it will when Texas/ESPN decide the LHN network can't work and they have 19 years left on the contract. All you said to counter my points let's what and see and I don't want to hear it, well guess what unless Dr. Gross sells the B1G on us adding more money to the conference portfolio or Texas decides to head west for some unforeseen circumstance the ACC will decay more and become the Big East 2.0

Your posts provide your opinion just like the others. You look at it from a worst case scenario while others look at best case or middle ground. Looking ar worst case doesn't mean taking off rose colored glasses.

Sent from my DROIDX using Tapatalk 2

 

[SmilinBob]

One of my biggest hoops fears is that the Big 10 signs up a long deal with MSG because the NC boys were too stubborn to seize their chance.

 

[TexanMark]

Yikes, Mark. 18 pages! Got a brief synopsis? Thx.

I can't my head spontaneously combusted by page 12...not sure what to make of it.

All I know is this: I think the ACC schools are going through a crisis right now. Deep down I don't think schools like UVA and UNC would join Team Delany and align their schools more north than they are. Delany reminds me of a megalomaniac. But I think there is a decent chance the Big 10 could pick off 1 or 2 ACC schools. We'll see. If the ACC wants to save the conference any of these things would help: Notre Dame all in, ESPN adjusts the contract, or ACC schools sign a GOR. I'm not a lawyer but a GOR appears stronger than just a flat/escalating fee the ACC has.

Bottomline: we'll still be in a much better place than stuck in CUSA after this all rolls out.

 

[cusetown1]

Your posts provide your opinion just like the others. You look at it from a worst case scenario while others look at best case or middle ground. Looking ar worst case doesn't mean taking off rose colored glasses.

Sent from my DROIDX using Tapatalk 2

You have been on fire lately. Good work.

 

[chakka3421]

Let's also not entirely discount basketball. Here is why (my opinion only). We have to all agree that the SEC is only about football - except Kentucky which is their only national brand. The best basketball players wil not want to go SEC - no matter how much money you upgrade basketball the money is going to pay football coaches and facilities. If the ACC fails like the big east is about to do so, the default basketball conference becomes - you guessed it - the B10. From a basketball perspective, I cannot see ESPN willing to let it all go and the entire NE for just for a super strong SEC football conference.

However, even though FOX has inroads into the B12, ESPN could somewhat force Texas into the SEC by closing down the LHN - remember, so goes Texas, so goes the B12. The absolute strongest play is Texas & Oklahoma to the SEC because what piece is now in play - the SEC network. Texas renews its relationship with aTm and Oklahoma is still its biggest rivalry.

So we end up with 4 super conferences - the West coast conference, the Northern conference, the Southern conference and the East coast conference. Strong regional branding that makes sense.

I think the next domino is Texas & Oklahoma - either SEC or PAC12. I don't think the ACC should do anything more than add Lville right now until this plays out.

EDIT - however it also depends upon ESPN strengthening the ACC money payout/GOR in the immediate future to keep the Eastern seaboard in a lock down.

 

[MaxwellCuse]

IF 16-team "superconferences" are coming,

And IF the PAC is to be one of the 4 survivors,

Teams 13 -- 16 in the expanded PAC will NOT include Boise State, BYU, Nevada-Reno, UNLV, Houston, SMU, Louisville or Cincinatti,

Nor will they include Iowa State, Kansas State, Baylor, TCU or WVU.

 

[ORRange]

Let's also not entirely discount basketball. Here is why (my opinion only). We have to all agree that the SEC is only about football - except Kentucky which is their only national brand. The best basketball players wil not want to go SEC - no matter how much money you upgrade basketball the money is going to pay football coaches and facilities. If the ACC fails like the big east is about to do so, the default basketball conference becomes - you guessed it - the B10. From a basketball perspective, I cannot see ESPN willing to let it all go and the entire NE for just for a super strong SEC football conference.

However, even though FOX has inroads into the B12, ESPN could somewhat force Texas into the SEC by closing down the LHN - remember, so goes Texas, so goes the B12. The absolute strongest play is Texas & Oklahoma to the SEC because what piece is now in play - the SEC network. Texas renews its relationship with aTm and Oklahoma is still its biggest rivalry.

So we end up with 4 super conferences - the West coast conference, the Northern conference, the Southern conference and the East coast conference. Strong regional branding that makes sense.

I think the next domino is Texas & Oklahoma - either SEC or PAC12. I don't think the ACC should do anything more than add Lville right now until this plays out.

EDIT - however it also depends upon ESPN strengthening the ACC money payout/GOR in the immediate future to keep the Eastern seaboard in a lock down.

Thanks again for responding sort of. lol. Must be on your ignore button.

 

[chakka3421]

OOrange - how about if I give you a Like! I must have missed you post - will go back through this thread. My internet is really slow on this forum for some reason.

 

[baggerbob]

Texas, Oklahoma, Notre Dame have to make a collective move together, they all have a dislike for the Big 1o, and the SEC. It was those 2 conferences that caused the problem in the Big 12. My out of the box 28 teams would have been the best idea to box in the other 3 conferences, but the present people involved don't think that big. The way to hurt all 3 of the conferences is to add Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Notre Dame, change the money-losing LHN to an ACC network . You need Texas, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Florida St, Miami, Clemson in the same conference for football, as good or better then the SEC.

 

[chakka3421]

It would seem to me that the SEC is a great option to expand with Texas and Okla. Please explain to me what is that stumbling block. If the SEC took those two schools it would keep FSU/Clemson in the ACC and save the day. The ACC would only have to worry about the 2 schools being plucked by B10. Thanks in advance.

Looks like we came up with the same outcome independently but credit goes to you for stating this potential outcome first. I still think B10 adds Kansas & UConn in the end.

 

[Alsacs]

Your posts provide your opinion just like the others. You look at it from a worst case scenario while others look at best case or middle ground. Looking ar worst case doesn't mean taking off rose colored glasses.

Sent from my DROIDX using Tapatalk 2

Your correct I don't deny my posts aren't opinion, but I am stating my opinion based on the facts and not attempting to say things that are just wrong like the Big XII is more vulnerable than the ACC. I want SU to be okay, and believe in the end we will be somewhere better than we have since 2003, but we have to wait for ESPN to make its next move with the ACC.

 

[TexanMark]

Ok let's say the ACC stays together and we go to the 16/17 Frankenstein

If we did this I have no doubt we add Georgetown for for all sports but FB an go Full Frankenstein 16/18.

It could be back to the future for conference divisions:

With crossovers I think all the rivalries that mean anything is covered.

ACC Division
Florida State
Clemson
Georgia Tech
Virginia
North Carolina
NC State
Duke
Wake Forest

Big East Division
Miami
Virginia Tech
Pitt
Louisville
Syracuse
Boston College
UConn
Cincy

h/t Ragu

 

[Alsacs]

Ok let's say the ACC stays together and we go to the 16/17 Frankenstein

If we did this I have no doubt we add Georgetown for for all sports but FB an go Full Frankenstein 16/18.

It could be back to the future for conference divisions:

With crossovers I think all the rivalries that mean anything is covered.

ACC Division
Florida State
Clemson
Georgia Tech
Virginia
North Carolina
NC State
Duke
Wake Forest

Big East Division
Miami
Virginia Tech
Pitt
Louisville
Syracuse
Boston College
UConn
Cincy

h/t Ragu

This is probably right and Va. Tech will go nuts, and hopefully they realize it gives them a better chance to win than trying to bolt to the SEC.

 

[chakka3421]

Alsacs - I just gave you a like if that means anything to you. I agree with you on 1 thing - its ESPNs move next. They could force the issue for Texas, they could drop the ball on the ACC.

Here is my issue - I cannot see ESPN wanting to weaken one conference it owns just to strengthen another. Raiding an ACC team to go to the SEC makes absolutely no sense to me - they own both. Why not strengthen both? Do you see what I'm saying? ESPN needs both to be strong conferences for content purposes.

See the universe was just was changed by FOX. That's why I think ESPN makes the case for the SEC to add Texas & Oklahoma. ESPN would then have the strongest football conference and the strongest basketball conference, And FOX is left with a boring conference for both.

Then a 4 team playoff makes more sense for better viewership across the nation - the best team from 4 different parts of the country. The first playoff is conference championships,from each region - 8 teams by default. The next is 2 bowl semi final games. Finally the NC game - now college football becomes far more interesting. You could tell Congress we have a fair system of an 8 team playoff by default and not really mess with the new playoff system.

The current 10 team B12 system doesn't fit into the new reality in my view.

 

[Alsacs]

Alsacs - I just gave you a like if that means anything to you. I agree with you on 1 thing - its ESPNs move next. They could force the issue for Texas, they could drop the ball on the ACC.

Here is my issue - I cannot see ESPN wanting to weaken one conference it owns just to strengthen another. Raiding an ACC team to go to the SEC makes absolutely no sense to me - they own both. Why not strengthen both? Do you see what I'm saying? ESPN needs both to be strong conferences for content purposes.

See the universe was just was changed by FOX. That's why I think ESPN makes the case for the SEC to add Texas & Oklahoma. ESPN would then have the strongest football conference and the strongest basketball conference, And FOX is left with a boring conference for both.

Then a 4 team playoff makes more sense for better viewership across the nation - the best team from 4 different parts of the country. The first playoff is conference championships,from each region - 8 teams by default. The next is 2 bowl semi final games. Finally the NC game - now college football becomes far more interesting. You could tell Congress we have a fair system of an 8 team playoff by default and not really mess with the current system.

The current 10 team B12 system doesn't fit into the new reality in my view.

My posts are like this clip. I like everybody, but just state where I see the business going.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

Ok let's say the ACC stays together and we go to the 16/17 Frankenstein

If we did this I have no doubt we add Georgetown for for all sports but FB an go Full Frankenstein 16/18.

It could be back to the future for conference divisions:

With crossovers I think all the rivalries that mean anything is covered.

ACC Division
Florida State
Clemson
Georgia Tech
Virginia
North Carolina
NC State
Duke
Wake Forest

Big East Division
Miami
Virginia Tech
Pitt
Louisville
Syracuse
Boston College
UConn
Cincy

h/t Ragu

If the ACC only plays an 8 game conference schedule, and if everyone has a "permanent" cross divisional rival (FSU - Miami, UVa - Va Tech, etc...), we would be locked into the same 8 games for all of eternity.

If our assigned rival was Wake, would SU fans be happy never playing FSU, Clemson, or Ga Tech?

 

[N.Y. Orangeman]

Your correct I don't deny my posts aren't opinion, but I am stating my opinion based on the facts and not attempting to say things that are just wrong like the Big XII is more vulnerable than the ACC. I want SU to be okay, and believe in the end we will be somewhere better than we have since 2003, but we have to wait for ESPN to make its next move with the ACC.

The problem is you aren't getting key facts right (e.g., contract figures and components). I like your posts, but Bees is right on this one.

 

[Alsacs]

The problem is you aren't getting key facts right (e.g., contract figures and components). I like your posts, but Bees is right on this one.

What key facts? The ACC is getting less money than the Big XII while its contract is backloaded all contracts are backloaded and the Big XII's as well is. Also, the Big XII has a GOR and the ACC doesn't. Texas controls the Big XII until they want to leave that conference will remain relevant UNLESS Oklahoma, Okie State, KU, K-State went West and then Texas would probably go Independent or look at the B1G or ACC. I am not getting key facts wrong on this the OP is correct. The ACC is paying the 5th most money of the Big 5 conferences. Now ESPN could fix that, but they haven't yet and that is why the ACC is the easiest conference to pick off.

 

[N.Y. Orangeman]

What key facts? The ACC is getting less money than the Big XII while its contract is backloaded all contracts are backloaded and the Big XII's as well is. Also, the Big XII has a GOR and the ACC doesn't. Texas controls the Big XII until they want to leave that conference will remain relevant UNLESS Oklahoma, Okie State, KU, K-State went West and then Texas would probably go Independent or look at the B1G or ACC. I am not getting key facts wrong on this the OP is correct. The ACC is paying the 5th most money of the Big 5 conferences. Now ESPN could fix that, but they haven't yet and that is why the ACC is the easiest conference to pick off.

Again, you aren't comparing apples to apples. We kept more media and sponsorship rights than the Big 12 and we are actually getting closer to $24-25m if you compare them apples to apples on the deals

http://www.syracuse.com/axeman/index.ssf/2012/05/post_97.html

 

[Shenexon]

I've been intrigued by the posts that suggest the size of conferences may not stop at 16 or that perhaps mergers of sorts might occur. If the idea is just to get a group of schools together that can lay claim to larger and larger numbers of tv sets, then why limit the considerations just to the addition of a school or two? Why not discuss having the ACC and PAC-12 create a larger conference with eastern and western divisions? The PAC 12 wouldn't need to add more schools and the ACC could stay with their current configuration except with the full inclusion of Notre Dame. If we're moving toward mega-conferences, why crowd all of the member schools together?

 

[TexanMark]

If the ACC only plays an 8 game conference schedule, and if everyone has a "permanent" cross divisional rival (FSU - Miami, UVa - Va Tech, etc...), we would be locked into the same 8 games for all of eternity.

If our assigned rival was Wake, would SU fans be happy never playing FSU, Clemson, or Ga Tech?

Good point but it was more illustrative of how we came back to the future...obviously we'd have to go to rotating pods of 4. Basketball is more problematic at 16/18. A 20 game season? 17 + 3 h/h's?