Big questions and player evals for 20/21 | Syracusefan.com

Big questions and player evals for 20/21

billsin01

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Fair warning -- this will be a long one. If you want the short version -- thank God basketball is back and please, God, let us have a regular season and tournament. I'm begging.

With that said, figured I'd tackle some overarching questions and then hit individual player evals for those likely to either be in the rotation or on the periphery (Woody and JBA aren't included since they're guys I think we have a much better chance of seeing down the road).

Questions:

Who will be in the rotation and how many guys will play?

Not sure this question will be as relevant as many think -- we already know JB prefers to know his 7.5-8 players and we already know the bulk of that group: Griffin/Guerrier/Dolezaj at F; mostly Bourama at C; Kadar/JGIII/Buddy at guard. I also don't really know that the issue is how many other guys play since A) transfers happen a ton regardless; B) Whoever else plays, won't play a ton
and C) these guys aren't playing 82, 48-minute games with another 20-ish potentially in the playoffs. TV timeouts every 4 mins, 20-ish games (this season at least) and a 4-month schedule (again, this season) really make the issue any starter(s) forced to play 38-40 mins/game. I agree, that's less than ideal. But I don't think we see that.

So who fills out the last 1/2 spot -- my guess is Edwards. If it expands beyond that (either due to JB's decisions or injuries), I remain convinced that Braswell is an intriguing player. But ultimately we not only know who the 7 are that will get most of the minutes, I'm not really sure how much debate there should be about it.

Who creates offense?
Another way to phrase this is how the hell do you replace Elijah Hughes? This to me is the much bigger question. Alan Griffin is the most likely answer and Kadary certainly has people dreaming big dreams. Hopefully it's both. The one guy to watch here too, IMO, is Girard. Not sure he's ever going to blow by anyone or finish at the rim, but he's going to have the ball a ton and he will have the green light from anywhere. Kid is not afraid to take a big shot. I also think he can get more creative inside the 3-point line, if not necessarily at the rim. Is that a good thing for us? Time will tell, but my hope is generally our offense is a bit more balanced and we find someone to create at the end of the shot clock. If I have general concerns about the team, this is it.

Will we be better defensively?
This is a big key too -- it felt like we were brutal last year but we were roughly middle of the pack (174th in pts allowed). But with Buddy and Joe returning up top and a similar makeup of guys on the back line, will we be any better (since we likely won't be quite as good offensively)? My feeling is this: If Buddy and Joe can go from bad to somewhere in the neighborhood of OK, Griffin can bring a bit more than Hughes (who I thought was wildly inconsistent defensively) and we get the active, tenacious Bourama from the last seven games of last season, that should all help. Also, I think this group could be sneaky good at rebounding the ball, which should help.

How much better can we be if we see incremental improvement from many players?
This seems like a key question b/c it's hard to imagine a huge leap from a lot of these guys. Marek, Bourama, Joe, Buddy -- we've seen them all and while there is upside it's hard to imagine a lottery-level jump from any of these guys. Q has the potential but off-season surgery and what his general health is remains a bit of a question. Bras might be a guy who could make a leap but will he get an opportunity? Giffin and Kadary seem like possibilities but it's tough to project that. Edwards and JBA or maybe Anselem ... maybe but doubtful this season. So how good can this team be if the improvements are more incremental? I don't know the answer here but I'm more bullish than some -- If we're a bit better defensively, hold our own on the glass and see improvements offensively from the guys that return (along with some good contributions from Kadary/Griffin) I could see this team slotting into the tourney as a 7/8 seed (in other words, far less bubble talk). If Kadary of Griffin are special, that would be pretty interesting.

So, on to the players:

Buddy Boeheim
What we know:
He's the son of JB, which will always create strife on the board. That we know. But the reality is, he got so many minutes the first two seasons because he was the best option. Frank Howard was better as a senior but he flaked out. I always liked Jalen's potential but we never really saw it. Carey/Goodine/Washington struggled for the most part a year ago. Buddy meanwhile hit 37% of his threes and put up 15ppg while adding that little elbow turnaround jumper to make himself a bit more than just a standstill shooter. His passing was OK, his rebounding was terrible and his defense needs to improve.

What we don't know: Not sure there's a lot we don't know here. Buddy feels like a guy who will be about what we've seen as a player the past few years but can he make some relatively minor improvements to become a bit more efficient and dangerous offensively and something approaching solid defensively.

What we're looking for: Another rebound a game or so would be nice but not sure it makes a huge difference here. There were a lot of comparisons to Andy Rautins but I don't think we see that -- not really a knock on Buddy, per se, but Andy was a major force defensively and really creative passer. What I'd love to see is Buddy get a little better at becoming a nuisance off-ball. Constant movement, being consistently dangerous coming off screens -- those would make him much tougher to defend. On the other end, I thought he was better as sophomore (though some of that may have been a matter of teams attacking Girard as much they did Buddy). But if he can use his size and intelligence and work ethic to become an average defender, that would be a nice improvement.

Joe Girard
What we know:
Girard had a really, really good freshman year when you consider that he's undersized, not overwhelmingly gifted physically, played most of his basketball in Glens Falls and had to run point (which I, at least, wasn't convinced he would be able to do at this level). 12 ppg on .348/.324/.894 with a 1.75:1 assist/TO ratio isn't knock your socks off production, but it's pretty solid once you factor everything in. The biggest knock on Girard, IMO, is the consistency of his intensity. There were times he was locked in and fighting on every play and others where he was a little loose, particularly on the defensive end. My guess is this comes from putting up 50/game at Glens Falls and then waking up the next day in the ACC. Overall, though, that's a really impressive freshman season, imo.

What we don't know: What is Girard's ceiling? Never going to be a guy who is finishing regularly around the rim and if he's playing 38 mpg at the point (which we hope he won't have to), the percentages are never going to be super pretty (see: McNamara, Gerry). Also, never going to be a stud defensively. But, could he be a guy who has the green light from anywhere, pushes the tempo with his passing and becomes a bigger playmaker for others based on teams having to guard him 25-feet from the basket?

What I'd like to see: If Kadary makes this a true three-guard rotation that could mean the aggregate numbers don't take a huge jump but it could really help Girard's efficiency. I also think Girard has some potential to be a guy who can create for himself -- maybe not at the rim, but inside the 3-point line and in transition. If he becomes an improved distributor and ball-handler, and adds some creativity to his offense while increasing his 3-point shooting efficiency -- we really have something here.

Kadary Richmond
What we know:
He played against top competition and excelled at Brewster. That's a good start. Big, athletic kid who can play the point. That's also good. We are in need of kids who can create their own offense and it seems like Kadary is a good candidate to do that. JB and others have given glowing reviews. I tend to take those with a grain of salt, but would still rather hear that than nothing or negative reviews.

What we don't know: How good will he be defensively and how good is his decision-making. Two keys for freshman here to get on the floor.

What I'd like to see: Well, if Kadary is truly a stud, I'll take that above all else. But if that's not the case, his being good enough to shoulder some of the load at PG and make this a true rotation at guard would be huge. His ability to create a little bit, would be big as well.

Bourama Sidibe
What we know:
Sidibe quietly had a really good season last year. Got abused at times in the first half of the season but even so he was grabbing close to 7 boards a game in like 22 minutes while battling foul trouble. Then he exploded in the last 7 games (26.6 mpg, 9 pts/11 rpg/2.3 bpg). Doubt we see that for a full season but it's worth noting that 7 rpg (before his last 7 games) puts him in pretty rare company among SU centers (there is the top tier with RJ's senior season, etc., but not many have averaged more than 7 rpg for a full season). If he's somewhere in between early season Sidibe and late-season Sidibe that would be a big thing for this team).

What we don't know: Health is always a question here and foul trouble will hopefully be better as a senior but it's tough to say.

What I'd like to see: A healthy Sidibe is number 1, but as long as he's healthy I think it's about foul trouble. He's an active kid so if he can avoid bad fouls, he's going to give many teams fits. 8-9 ppg and 8-9 rpg in ~30 mpg is not out of the question. That would be a big boost.

Marek Dolezaj
What we know:
The kid is a player. He fights for everything and, in addition, has a pretty nice skill set for a big. His best attribute may be his passing but he turned into a decent scoring option last year, he can handle the ball a bit, hustles and scraps on defense and on the boards. Yes, he's light -- even after the weight gain -- and that can be an issue. But he's a really solid big.

What we don't know: Can Marek add a jumper? Not sure his overall upside is dramatically different than we've seen the past few years but even if he's knocking down 15-footers, that will open up passing lanes and make him tougher to defend.

What I'd like to see: That mid-range jumper combined with a little more strength would be a good combo. Generally though, feel like what we've seen is about we'll get.

Alan Griffin
What we know:
Athletic kid who can shoot and is here as at least a de facto Elijah replacement. We also know he won't replace Elijah in a like-for-like way. But he should take some of the scoring load onto his shoulders. He appears to be a decent rebounder for his size as well and another year under his belt, maybe that athleticism makes him more than just a shooter offensively.

What we don't know: What, besides shooting and general athleticism, does Griffin bring. He made his FTs last year at an 84% clip but shot just 1.3/game. So at Illinois this kid was a designated shooter. He'll almost certainly be asked to do more than that here. That can be a tricky thing, however.

What I'd like to see: Honestly, for me, if he's a really good shooter, a solid option when we're running the floor and a more consistent defender than Elijah, that would be a good addition. As amazing as Hughes was offensively (and he was truly remarkable on that end), I always thought he struggled with consistency on the defensive end. If we assume we won't really replace his offensive production (at least with Griffin alone), that improved defense would be a nice upgrade (theoretically).

Quincy Guerrier
What we know:
Super athletic kid who excels around the rim. Draws contact and finishes at a high level. That athleticism should allow him to expand his offensive game and become a better defender.

What we don't know: How much improvement can he make in a year, especially after having surgery? At some point he'll be an inside/outside threat, but will that be this year?

What I'd like to see: A healthy Guerrier who is a little better defensively would be great. If he can add a little variety to his offensive game, all the better.

Going to do these last two quickly b/c I"m losing steam:

Bras -- The road to PT is tough but I held onto my Bras stock b/c I love a kid who makes the most of his opportunities. I think he could theoretically be a really nice all-around player for us. Just hope he gets a chance to do this in orange.

Edwards/Anselem -- One of these guy's will be Sidibe's backup. The key will be can they become a better alternative to Marek at the 5 as the year goes on? My gut says no, but time will tell.
 

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