Bills 2024 Thread - Misery loves company | Page 11 | Syracusefan.com

Bills 2024 Thread - Misery loves company

The question is how big a talent gap there is between Odunze and Mitchell who you could probably get at 28.
I wouldn't say probably. His range seems to open up about 10 picks before that. Especially if Thomas is gone by 13 or 14. He's likely next up after that. I dislike Worthy who is the most likely available and is an awful fit with our current WRs.
 
I think Rome could be a target now especially if he slips outside of the top 10

Thomas Jr would've been great as a boundary WR with Diggs still on the roster, but the trade makes the need for immediate WR help more necessary so I won't be shocked if Beane goes after either Nabers or Rome
 
Looks like 28, 60 and 2025 2nd is about right on the spot to move up to #9 according to the old Johnson trade chart. Can't determine if I'd want to use that many resources for Odunze but definitely don't hate the idea outright.
Playing with the chart:
  • To move into top 15 (ensure Thomas, maybe one of the top three if someone drops) will cost at least 1st and 2nd, maybe more. With no 3rd round pick, the 2nd should be the one for next year that we just got.
  • Cost isn't much different to get from 28th to 20th (ensure Mitchell, maybe Thomas if he drops). Again, not having a 3rd round pick hurts, either to deal or use to fill the gap if the #2 is dealt.
  • To move up a couple spots (ensure Mitchell) would cost at least a 4th and maybe one more low pick, which we have to spare. This seems doable to ward off KC who might try to jump up for a WR.
  • Or they could reach from the next tier of WRs (McKonkey/Coleman/Legette/Worthy) or take BPA at 28 and try to move up for one of the in Round 2 where they could reasonably get from pick 60 to 50.
 
Last edited:
Texans playing with fire with this Diggs renegotiation. Gave him a little raise and makes him a FA after the year. You'd think he'd be on best behavior and they would at least get a comp pick if he leaves but they better be ready for meltdown mode if he really has lost a step and takes a back seat to Collins and/or Tank Dell.
 
Texans playing with fire with this Diggs renegotiation. Gave him a little raise and makes him a FA after the year. You'd think he'd be on best behavior and they would at least get a comp pick if he leaves but they better be ready for meltdown mode if he really has lost a step and takes a back seat to Collins and/or Tank Dell.

Yeah it could blow up in their face for sure. On the flip side, I'm guessing they never had any intention of keeping him beyond next season and they are hoping that they get an extra motivated contract year Diggs for one year.
 
Yeah it could blow up in their face for sure. On the flip side, I'm guessing they never had any intention of keeping him beyond next season and they are hoping that they get an extra motivated contract year Diggs for one year.
Yeah I was thinking 2 years max.

Now that I think about it, a comp pick is probably unlikely as well. They are going to be in all-in mode the next 2 off-seasons due to Stroud's rookie deal so more likely they won't qualify for a comp pick because they'll be trying to load up.
 
Yeah it could blow up in their face for sure. On the flip side, I'm guessing they never had any intention of keeping him beyond next season and they are hoping that they get an extra motivated contract year Diggs for one year.

Agreed, I think they had zero interest in him beyond this year. I actually think voiding the last three years made a ton of sense, gives Diggs more $$ and forces him to be on his best behavior if he wants any sort of major contract next season. It could still blow up on them easily but they've done pretty much everything they can to make it work.
 
Looks like 28, 60 and 2025 2nd is about right on the spot to move up to #9 according to the old Johnson trade chart. Can't determine if I'd want to use that many resources for Odunze but definitely don't hate the idea outright.
draft with the picks . Don’t trade them for 1 pick. Wide receiver is an overrated position. While not as fungible as RB, they aren’t as important as most believe. The QB makes the receiver more often than the receiver makes the QB. Bills have too many needs to take 3 picks and turn them into 1.

I also doubt Odunze is around at 9.
 
Last edited:
draft with the picks . Don’t trade them for 1 pick. Wide receiver is an overrated position. While not as fungible as RB, they aren’t as important as most believe. The QB makes the receiver more often than the receiver makes the QB. Bills have too many needs to take 3 picks and turn them into 1.

I also doubt Odunze is around at 9.
Don't agree whatsoever on pass catcher positional value. It's either 2 or 3 nowadays depending on your thoughts on edge rusher. Their needs aren't all that big. Need a dynamic, bigger body WR, a starting caliber safety and DL depth. They have 10 picks and have some cap space post 6/1. Not saying I'd be happy or its my preference to end up with 1 selection in the 1st 3 rounds by any means but if it's because those turned into Odunze/Nabers and Rasul then so be it.
 
Don't agree whatsoever on pass catcher positional value. It's either 2 or 3 nowadays depending on your thoughts on edge rusher. Their needs aren't all that big. Need a dynamic, bigger body WR, a starting caliber safety and DL depth. They have 10 picks and have some cap space post 6/1. Not saying I'd be happy or its my preference to end up with 1 selection in the 1st 3 rounds by any means but if it's because those turned into Odunze/Nabers and Rasul then so be it.
Yeah all you need to do is follow the $ to see what positions groups are valued. Now does a pat mahomes/ Andy Reid offense need a true #1 probably not but at times they certainly looked like they did last year. I don’t see Beane getting crazy and trying to move up to top 10 but I’m sure they will move and shake to a certain extent
 
Yeah all you need to do is follow the $ to see what positions groups are valued. Now does a pat mahomes/ Andy Reid offense need a true #1 probably not but at times they certainly looked like they did last year. I don’t see Beane getting crazy and trying to move up to top 10 but I’m sure they will move and shake to a certain extent
I was prepared for the KC example to be thrown back at me as why you don't need one except they do have an elite #1 pass catcher. Just happens he plays TE is the best of the last decade. When they need a play to be made, that's who he goes to and its been unstoppable for years. I'd guess this year was the last in which he's going to be at that level and he wasn't all that good most of the season and why they struggled but then he cranked it up in the post-season and now they have 3 rings.

I'm fairly confident Kincaid/Shakir can fulfill the 2nd and 3rd pass catcher roles in combination pretty successfully. We saw it the 2nd half of the year when the team went on a heater. Have Cook and Samuel as high end 4th and 5th options out of the backfield and gadget type plays. Just really need the one guy that JA can go to on slants and back shoulder fades on 3rd and 7 and make the plays that extend drives and win games.

I'm not opposed to taking a shot at Michael Thomas or OBJ on a 1 year incentive laden deal and combining that with someone at 28 or 60. Thomas may be completely washed up but OBJ still showed some explosiveness last year though he probably isn't the kind of guy we're looking for from a physical standpoint. Wish the Aiyuk situation would blow up in SF and could get him with 60 + one of the 4ths and basically hand him an extension at the Diggs cap hit going forward but that's a pipe dream in all aspects.
 
I was prepared for the KC example to be thrown back at me as why you don't need one except they do have an elite #1 pass catcher. Just happens he plays TE is the best of the last decade. When they need a play to be made, that's who he goes to and its been unstoppable for years. I'd guess this year was the last in which he's going to be at that level and he wasn't all that good most of the season and why they struggled but then he cranked it up in the post-season and now they have 3 rings.

I'm fairly confident Kincaid/Shakir can fulfill the 2nd and 3rd pass catcher roles in combination pretty successfully. We saw it the 2nd half of the year when the team went on a heater. Have Cook and Samuel as high end 4th and 5th options out of the backfield and gadget type plays. Just really need the one guy that JA can go to on slants and back shoulder fades on 3rd and 7 and make the plays that extend drives and win games.

I'm not opposed to taking a shot at Michael Thomas or OBJ on a 1 year incentive laden deal and combining that with someone at 28 or 60. Thomas may be completely washed up but OBJ still showed some explosiveness last year though he probably isn't the kind of guy we're looking for from a physical standpoint. Wish the Aiyuk situation would blow up in SF and could get him with 60 + one of the 4ths and basically hand him an extension at the Diggs cap hit going forward but that's a pipe dream in all aspects.
following your logic (which is sound) , by receiver standards Kelce had a good but not great year . About 1000 yards and 5 TD. In modern day NFL that’s not elite. Draft best availables and then flip em for a positional need if it comes to it
 
following your logic (which is sound) , by receiver standards Kelce had a good but not great year . About 1000 yards and 5 TD. In modern day NFL that’s not elite. Draft best availables and then flip em for a positional need if it comes to it
He had a down year as acknowledged then averaged 8/90/.75 per game through the playoffs which is back to elite level. If we can find someone that gets us remotely near those numbers on a year long basis I'd gladly give up 28, 60 and that 2025 vikes pick. Hell I'd give up our 1st which may only be 10 picks earlier if we got a dude doing that in year 1.
 
I was prepared for the KC example to be thrown back at me as why you don't need one except they do have an elite #1 pass catcher. Just happens he plays TE is the best of the last decade. When they need a play to be made, that's who he goes to and its been unstoppable for years. I'd guess this year was the last in which he's going to be at that level and he wasn't all that good most of the season and why they struggled but then he cranked it up in the post-season and now they have 3 rings.

I'm fairly confident Kincaid/Shakir can fulfill the 2nd and 3rd pass catcher roles in combination pretty successfully. We saw it the 2nd half of the year when the team went on a heater. Have Cook and Samuel as high end 4th and 5th options out of the backfield and gadget type plays. Just really need the one guy that JA can go to on slants and back shoulder fades on 3rd and 7 and make the plays that extend drives and win games.

I'm not opposed to taking a shot at Michael Thomas or OBJ on a 1 year incentive laden deal and combining that with someone at 28 or 60. Thomas may be completely washed up but OBJ still showed some explosiveness last year though he probably isn't the kind of guy we're looking for from a physical standpoint. Wish the Aiyuk situation would blow up in SF and could get him with 60 + one of the 4ths and basically hand him an extension at the Diggs cap hit going forward but that's a pipe dream in all aspects.
I think Thomas would be worth a shot, he hasn’t played in 4 years really but dude has a huge chip on his shoulder and really don’t think he had any interesting in playing for the Saints since 2020. He’s the same age as Diggs, I’d sign him up for 1 year, draft a WR Zion first and go from there. Think BIlls will also draft a safety in first 2 picks
 
I think Thomas would be worth a shot, he hasn’t played in 4 years really but dude has a huge chip on his shoulder and really don’t think he had any interesting in playing for the Saints since 2020. He’s the same age as Diggs, I’d sign him up for 1 year, draft a WR Zion first and go from there. Think BIlls will also draft a safety in first 2 picks
Me too. Take the shot on a guy that was elite last time he was healthy, albeit 4 years ago. Certainly no S in rd 1 unless they want to put Dejean there which I'm good with.
 
Maybe I'm not being realistic, but I think Curtis Samuel can probably give you 80% of what Diggs did, or maybe all of what a 30+ year old Diggs would have.

They're both similar builds. Samuel has played with crap QB's.

Add to that the improvement of Kincaid, Shakir, Cook, and I don't think Hollins is a bad pickup either...

I don't think the weapons are all that bad overall. I think adding a Top 10-type WR like Nabors would put it over the top, but I wouldn't mortgage the future to do it.
 
Maybe I'm not being realistic, but I think Curtis Samuel can probably give you 80% of what Diggs did, or maybe all of what a 30+ year old Diggs would have.

They're both similar builds. Samuel has played with crap QB's.

Add to that the improvement of Kincaid, Shakir, Cook, and I don't think Hollins is a bad pickup either...

I don't think the weapons are all that bad overall. I think adding a Top 10-type WR like Nabors would put it over the top, but I wouldn't mortgage the future to do it.
I'm feeling a lesser move up to get Thomas.
 
Maybe I'm not being realistic, but I think Curtis Samuel can probably give you 80% of what Diggs did, or maybe all of what a 30+ year old Diggs would have.

They're both similar builds. Samuel has played with crap QB's.

Add to that the improvement of Kincaid, Shakir, Cook, and I don't think Hollins is a bad pickup either...

I don't think the weapons are all that bad overall. I think adding a Top 10-type WR like Nabors would put it over the top, but I wouldn't mortgage the future to do it.
Samuel was primarily a RB at Ohio St. He's not a fully skilled WR that is going to be running a lot of routes as a primary option on the outside. He's more of a thicker, better version of McKenzie that can make RB type plays in space and make people miss.
 
Just don't let someone jump us for Legette.
 
1 week to go. My hopes in order of preference:

1. Give up our 2025 2nd and one of the 4ths and move up to 17 for Brian Thomas. Best DL/S avail at 60.
2. Stand pat and end up with DeJean or Mitchell at 28 and then draft the other position at 60.
3. Trade back 5-10 spots and add a 3rd rd pick. Take BPA with top 3 picks as long as WR and S are 2 of them.
4. Give up 28, 60 and next years 1st to get Nabers.
5. Give up 28, 60 and next years 1st to get Odunze.
6. Give up 28 and a 4th for Aiyuk and give him a 4/$100m extension that bones our cap space for next year in exchange for not dealing with the 50/50 shot of a late 1st rd WR being a bum.
 
1 week to go. My hopes in order of preference:

1. Give up our 2025 2nd and one of the 4ths and move up to 17 for Brian Thomas. Best DL/S avail at 60.
2. Stand pat and end up with DeJean or Mitchell at 28 and then draft the other position at 60.
3. Trade back 5-10 spots and add a 3rd rd pick. Take BPA with top 3 picks as long as WR and S are 2 of them.
4. Give up 28, 60 and next years 1st to get Nabers.
5. Give up 28, 60 and next years 1st to get Odunze.
6. Give up 28 and a 4th for Aiyuk and give him a 4/$100m extension that bones our cap space for next year in exchange for not dealing with the 50/50 shot of a late 1st rd WR being a bum.
Very nice. My only change would be in #2 and switch out Legette for Mitchell.
 
1 week to go. My hopes in order of preference:

1. Give up our 2025 2nd and one of the 4ths and move up to 17 for Brian Thomas. Best DL/S avail at 60.
2. Stand pat and end up with DeJean or Mitchell at 28 and then draft the other position at 60.
3. Trade back 5-10 spots and add a 3rd rd pick. Take BPA with top 3 picks as long as WR and S are 2 of them.
4. Give up 28, 60 and next years 1st to get Nabers.
5. Give up 28, 60 and next years 1st to get Odunze.
6. Give up 28 and a 4th for Aiyuk and give him a 4/$100m extension that bones our cap space for next year in exchange for not dealing with the 50/50 shot of a late 1st rd WR being a bum.

I don't like trading out of the first round, because you give up that 5th year option. I think you should only be trading that first round pick for either a higher first round pick or a player.
 
I don't like trading out of the first round, because you give up that 5th year option. I think you should only be trading that first round pick for either a higher first round pick or a player.
Didn't know that.
 
1 week to go. My hopes in order of preference:

1. Give up our 2025 2nd and one of the 4ths and move up to 17 for Brian Thomas. Best DL/S avail at 60.
2. Stand pat and end up with DeJean or Mitchell at 28 and then draft the other position at 60.
3. Trade back 5-10 spots and add a 3rd rd pick. Take BPA with top 3 picks as long as WR and S are 2 of them.
4. Give up 28, 60 and next years 1st to get Nabers.
5. Give up 28, 60 and next years 1st to get Odunze.
6. Give up 28 and a 4th for Aiyuk and give him a 4/$100m extension that bones our cap space for next year in exchange for not dealing with the 50/50 shot of a late 1st rd WR being a bum.
I don't really see the Aiyuk thing as a realistic option. I keep going back and forth on how I feel about the massive trade ups for the big 3 WRs. It's tempting as hell as we probably don't have any other positions we're really trying to get an immediate starter at and those three, particularly MHJ and Nabers, feel like they're as close to can't miss prospects as it generally gets. I generally hate the idea of trading up, especially trading up to target one of the few positions that has great depth in the draft, but those guys all look very special.

Where I've landed on the WRs (prospects are in order within the tiers, though I'm ignoring their fit with the Bills). I'll bold the ones that I feel like make sense in terms of what Beane usually looks for and our hole at X WR:

Tier 1: Early 1st rounders
  • MHJ
  • Nabers
  • Odunze
Tier 2: Other 1st rounders
  • Brian Thomas Jr.
Tier 3: Little Iffy at #28 but I'd be okay with it/would like it if we trade down and get them
  • Keon Coleman
  • Troy Franklin
  • Jacob Cowing (probably a Day 3 pick in reality and slot exclusive so probably not a good fit for us, but I love his film)
  • Ladd McConkey
  • Javon Baker (can almost certainly be had at 60 but he's an early 2nd grade for me)
  • Ricky Pearsall
Tier 4: Targets if they fall to #60
  • Ja'Lynn Polk
  • Adonai Mitchell
  • Brendan Rice
  • Roman Wilson (similar to Cowing, probably slot exclusive so not a good fit, but he has all the intangibles we generally like)
  • Jermaine Burton (personality red flags, might be off our board)
Tier 5: If we get a 3rd round pick
  • Malachi Corley (probably slot exclusive so not a good fit)
  • Xavier Legette
Tier 6: Round 4 targets
  • Xavier Worthy (obviously won't actually fall this far and that's fine with me)
  • Isaiah Williams (probably slot exclusive)
Tier 7: Later on Day 3
  • Anthony Gould
  • Tez Walker
  • Jalen McMillan
Those are all of the guys I watched All-22 film on. There's a few that I didn't get around to that seem like interesting prospects, though mostly slot guys: Tahj Washington, Malik Washington, etc.
 

Forum statistics

Threads
170,310
Messages
4,884,073
Members
5,991
Latest member
Fowler

Online statistics

Members online
52
Guests online
927
Total visitors
979


...
Top Bottom