Bills 2024 Thread - Misery loves company

[syrBossHogg]

Very nice. My only change would be in #2 and switch out Legette for Mitchell.

I actually think I prefer Legette rather than AD

 

[Toga]

I actually think I prefer Legette rather than AD

I wrote that wrong. I prefer Legette over Mitchell.

 

[chugg21]

I don't like trading out of the first round, because you give up that 5th year option. I think you should only be trading that first round pick for either a higher first round pick or a player.

The 5th year option only really brings surplus value at QB and that's only if they are excellent. It can be just as hurtful as beneficial at other positions on guys that are mid-level starters. You're forced to make the decision before year 4 and they can either blow up or crap out that year and then you're on the hook. Majority of players will be looking for an extension before it kicks in anyway like Jefferson and Aiyuk are currently so it doesn't really do much to help anything besides keep that initial year of the extension down a bit.

 

[chugg21]

I don't really see the Aiyuk thing as a realistic option. I keep going back and forth on how I feel about the massive trade ups for the big 3 WRs. It's tempting as hell as we probably don't have any other positions we're really trying to get an immediate starter at and those three, particularly MHJ and Nabers, feel like they're as close to can't miss prospects as it generally gets. I generally hate the idea of trading up, especially trading up to target one of the few positions that has great depth in the draft, but those guys all look very special.

Where I've landed on the WRs (prospects are in order within the tiers, though I'm ignoring their fit with the Bills). I'll bold the ones that I feel like make sense in terms of what Beane usually looks for and our hole at X WR:

Tier 1: Early 1st rounders

• MHJ
• Nabers
• Odunze

Tier 2: Other 1st rounders

• Brian Thomas Jr.

Tier 3: Little Iffy at #28 but I'd be okay with it/would like it if we trade down and get them

• Keon Coleman
• Troy Franklin
• Jacob Cowing (probably a Day 3 pick in reality and slot exclusive so probably not a good fit for us, but I love his film)
• Ladd McConkey
• Javon Baker (can almost certainly be had at 60 but he's an early 2nd grade for me)
• Ricky Pearsall

Tier 4: Targets if they fall to #60

• Ja'Lynn Polk
• Adonai Mitchell
• Brendan Rice
• Roman Wilson (similar to Cowing, probably slot exclusive so not a good fit, but he has all the intangibles we generally like)
• Jermaine Burton (personality red flags, might be off our board)

Tier 5: If we get a 3rd round pick

• Malachi Corley (probably slot exclusive so not a good fit)
• Xavier Legette

Tier 6: Round 4 targets

• Xavier Worthy (obviously won't actually fall this far and that's fine with me)
• Isaiah Williams (probably slot exclusive)

Tier 7: Later on Day 3

• Anthony Gould
• Tez Walker
• Jalen McMillan

Those are all of the guys I watched All-22 film on. There's a few that I didn't get around to that seem like interesting prospects, though mostly slot guys: Tahj Washington, Malik Washington, etc.

I'm at the same point with the trade up. Only thing that really makes me consider it is just the hope that Minnesota is terrible with a rookie QB and that we could end up with like pick 38 and 60 next year without our 1st which is fine and not much different then what we've been dealing with of late.

Aiyuk deal is only feasible due to not having the 1st rd pick salary going on the cap and then the $10m Tre money coming due on 6/1. He's on a 1 year $14m deal on the option so would have to cut that down a bit in year 1 of a new deal. I don't like it but it's one of the dumb things people on Twitter talk about constantly. More so with Higgins but I have 0.0 interest in a deal/extension with him and doesn't seem like he's going anywhere anyway unless they draft Thomas and then sell him off to the highest bidder at that point.

 

[MSOrange]

NFL Draft 2024: Top prospect spends one of his four 30-visits with Buffalo Bills

Cooper DeJean is considered one of the draft's top defensive backs.

www.syracuse.com

 

[shandeezy7]

The 5th year option only really brings surplus value at QB and that's only if they are excellent. It can be just as hurtful as beneficial at other positions on guys that are mid-level starters. You're forced to make the decision before year 4 and they can either blow up or crap out that year and then you're on the hook. Majority of players will be looking for an extension before it kicks in anyway like Jefferson and Aiyuk are currently so it doesn't really do much to help anything besides keep that initial year of the extension down a bit.

Yeah, I'd still rather have the option than not, but it's definitely not as valuable as it used to be, especially with how early it has to be exercised. I still don't love the idea of trading out of the first round, regardless, unless you're trading for a player or you're trading a future first to move up.

 

[chugg21]

Yeah, I'd still rather have the option than not, but it's definitely not as valuable as it used to be, especially with how early it has to be exercised. I still don't love the idea of trading out of the first round, regardless, unless you're trading for a player or you're trading a future first to move up.

I like it this year because if Thomas and Mitchell are both gone before 28, there isn't really a WR that is both a fit and a value at the end of rd 1. Either have to reach or go in a different direction and be ready to move up from 60.

 

[BlazeOrange]

So which team's scout is throwing shade at Mitchell? Could it be us? A plot to get Thomas to drop would make more sense.

 

[chugg21]

+/- on Thomas moved from 19.5 to 21.5 overnight. Looking more and more like we may just need to make a small jump to grab him.

 

[NineOneSeven]

I’m officially all in on moving up.

 

[IthacaBarrel]

whatever they do the Bills will get "their" guy!!!

 

[BlazeOrange]

I’m officially all in on moving up.

I'd go high teens (ahead of Pittsburgh) for Thomas and low 20s for Mitchell.

If they can't work a deal, it gets difficult. Don't want the little 4.2 guy and the rest are reaches. Carolina & Washington both hsve 2 picks early in 2nd - trade our late round 1 and round 2 for those?

 

[Melancer46]

Sounds like Thomas could end up tumbling a bit due to medicals like DK did a few years back. Or it’s just smoke. Who knows?!

 

[Toga]

Bears are apparently open for business at #9.

 

[chugg21]

Sounds like Thomas could end up tumbling a bit due to medicals like DK did a few years back. Or it’s just smoke. Who knows?!

That's what I'm seeing a lot of places as well. That Thomas has shoulder issues that were flagged with the left likely needing surgery after the 2024 season. I'm fine with that.

 

[NineOneSeven]

I’m glad some of this top talent is going to the NFC

 

[Melancer46]

So bummed Maye went to the Patriots. If god forbid they can put some talent around him, they're going to be right back in the thick of things again.

Board is falling remarkably for Buffalo right now though. Barring Thomas falling all the way to 28, I would probably take defense there.

 

[STEVEHOLT]

Trade up a few and nab Thomas !! Chiefs gonna jump ahead of us

 

[NineOneSeven]

Jags have a bunch of talent

 

[shandeezy7]

Jags have a bunch of talent

Are you counting Gabe as part of that "talent?"

But yes, despite Gabe's shortcomings, T Law seems to have a lot of options at his disposal.

 

[NineOneSeven]

Well then

 

[klemmer56]

The chiefs...really.

 

[Melancer46]

Was hoping for a DB or trade down at this point and KC takes a player I dislike anyways. This is great.

 

[JeremyCuse]

Love the trade back but really wish it wasn't to the fn Chiefs.

 

[NineOneSeven]

Love the trade back but really wish it wasn't to the fn Chiefs.

Any doubt he has a huge game against us this year?