Bowl game what ifs | Syracusefan.com

Bowl game what ifs

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upperdeck

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we have to win one.. lets win 2 just for fun.. so finish at 5-3 with wins over pitt/bc

that leaves FSU in BCS.
Clemson finishes out at 11-1 and gets a bcs as well

BC finishes 4-4 beats NCSt- Maryland
Wake best us 3-5
Mary best is 3-5
ncst cant catch us no matter what

GT loses to clemson so 5-3
Duke beats miami and wins out 6-2
VT wins out 6-2
Miami finishes 5-3
UNC -pitt is huge.
Pitt then finishes 3-5.

We win out
some big games that help us..

NC state beats BC..
UNC loses to pitt and duke
Pitt loses to us and miami.

we could finish above half the teams that can get to 6 wins in the ACC.

its even possible that Miami falls to 3-5 in league and we can pass them as well.
 
Do the bowl games care about league standings?

Or just overall record?
 
I think bowls have to select teams within 1 game of the best available team.

so if we finish 5-3 in league play we would have to be chosen for a bowl before any 3-5 teams went bowling
 
Chris02M said:
I think bowls have to select teams within 1 game of the best available team.

so if we finish 5-3 in league play we would have to be chosen for a bowl before any 3-5 teams went bowling
Expand...

This is correct. The ACC has a 'one win rule' that works as follows:

ONE-WIN RULE
Each of the current ACC Bowl Partners have a provision in their contract that describes how this selection pool is composed by the available team with the best conference record or a team within one conference win of the best available team.

This rule is not liked by some of the bowls and the Gator referenced it as one of the reasons they moved away from the ACC...
 
sutomcat said:
This is correct. The ACC has a 'one win rule' that works as follows:

ONE-WIN RULE
Each of the current ACC Bowl Partners have a provision in their contract that describes how this selection pool is composed by the available team with the best conference record or a team within one conference win of the best available team.

This rule is not liked by some of the bowls and the Gator referenced it as one of the reasons they moved away from the ACC...
Expand...
the Gator Bowl. And Virginia Tech. Would love to see that bowl go bust.
 
and we will be back in the mix for the gator bowl when the new bowls take effect in 2014
 
sutomcat said:
This is correct. The ACC has a 'one win rule' that works as follows:

ONE-WIN RULE
Each of the current ACC Bowl Partners have a provision in their contract that describes how this selection pool is composed by the available team with the best conference record or a team within one conference win of the best available team.

This rule is not liked by some of the bowls and the Gator referenced it as one of the reasons they moved away from the ACC...
Expand...

I believe it was instituted after BC's first season in the ACC (2005) when they finished 8-3, 5-3 and tumbled all the way down the Blue Turf Bowl.
 
Chip said:
My biggest takeaway from that scenario is that FSU would be playing Duke in the ACC Championship game.

Just like the founding fathers drew it up.
Expand...
Although It might be enjoyable rooting for the David/Goliath matchup - a Duke/FSU championship game would be absolute catnip for the national media - and all of the college football world - in a bad way. Guys like Finebaum would be in heaven. Mocking the half filled stadium and the "pathetic ACC".
 
CuseCactus said:
Although It might be enjoyable rooting for the David/Goliath matchup - a Duke/FSU championship game would be absolute catnip for the national media - and all of the college football world - in a bad way. Guys like Finebaum would be in heaven. Mocking the half filled stadium and the "pathetic ACC".
Expand...

I think a good # of FSU fans who aren't within a reasonable drive of Charlotte, would skip the game, save their money for the trip to Pasadena.

That might happen regardless of overmatched opponent, but I can certainly see it for a game against Duke.

Best scenario for ACC is that Duke loses to either Miami or suddenly resurgent UNC, and then VT, just 3 hours away, fills up Charlotte as the underdog.
 
Chip said:
I think a good # of FSU fans who aren't within a reasonable drive of Charlotte, would skip the game, save their money for the trip to Pasadena.

That might happen regardless of overmatched opponent, but I can certainly see it for a game against Duke.

Best scenario for ACC is that Duke loses to either Miami or suddenly resurgent UNC, and then VT, just 3 hours away, fills up Charlotte as the underdog.
Expand...
I agree. Although I wouldn't watch VT v FSU. Just don't like either program at all. A lot of others would - and the stadium would be full.
 
how many of these championship games get good crowds if the few teams that travel are not in them?
 
Never done this bowl guessing before so, no laughing. (Remember, I take pictures at the tailgate!)

10 ACC teams bowl eligible.

FSU (8-0) to BCS NC Game
  1. Jan. 3 Orange (Miami) (ACC No. 1) Va Tech (6-2 beat Miami and GT)
  2. Dec. 31 Chick-fil-A (Atlanta) (ACC No. 2) Miami (6-2 beat GT lost to Va Tech)
  3. Dec. 28 Russell Athletic (Orlando) (ACC No. 3) Ga Tech (6-2 lost to Miami and Va Tech)
  4. Dec. 31 Sun (El Paso): (ACC No. 4) Clemson (6-2 I have them losing to GT)
  5. Dec. 28 Belk (Charlotte): (ACC No. 5) North Carolina
  6. Dec. 30 Music City (Nashville): (ACC No. 6) Syracuse
  7. Dec. 31 Independence (Shreveport): (ACC No. 7) Duke
  8. Dec. 27 Military bowls (Annapolis): (ACC No. 8) BC
In this scenario NC State might lose out.

Coastal
  1. FSU 9-0 (7-0) wins out: SU (Idaho and Florida) and finishes 12-0 (8-0)
  2. Clemson 8-1 (6-1) loses to GT (and So Car) and finishes (9-3 (6-2)
  3. Syracuse 5-4 (3-2) loses to FSU, beats Pitt and BC finishes 7-5 (5-3)
  4. Boston College 5-4 (2-3) loses to NC State, and SU beats Maryland finishes 6-6 (3-5)
  5. NC State 3-6 (0-6) beats BC and Maryland and finishes 6-6 (2-6)
  6. Wake Forest 4-6 (2-5) loses out: Duke (Vandy) finishes 4-8 (2-6)
  7. Maryland 5-4 (1-4) loses out: Va Tech, BC, NC State finishes (5-7 (1-7) Bye Raaaaaannnnnnndeeeee
Atlantic
  1. Miami 7-2 (3-2) wins out: Duke, UVA, Pitt finishes 10-2 (6-2)
  2. GT 6-3 (5-2) wins out: Clemson, (Alabama A&M, Georgia) and finishes 9-3 (6-2)
  3. Va Tech 7-3 (4-2) wins out: Maryland, UVA finishes 9-3 (6-2)
  4. North Carolina 4-5 (3-3) wins out: Pitt, Duke (Old Dominion) finishes 7-5 (5-3)
  5. Duke 7-2 (3-2) loses to Miami and UNC and beats Wake finishes 8-4 (4-4)
  6. Pitt 5-4 (2-3) loses out: UNC, SU, Miami finishes (5-7 (2-6)
  7. Virginia 2-8 (0-6) loses out: Miami, Va Tech finishes 2-10 (0-8)
 
Last edited:
Crusty said:
Never done this bowl guessing before so, no laughing. (Remember, I take pictures at the tailgate!)

10 ACC teams bowl eligible.

FSU to BCS NC Game
  1. Jan. 3 Orange (Miami) (ACC No. 1) Miami
  2. Dec. 31 Chick-fil-A (Atlanta) (ACC No. 2) Ga Tech
  3. Dec. 28 Russell Athletic (Orlando) (ACC No. 3) Clemson
  4. Dec. 31 Sun (El Paso): (ACC No. 4) Va Tech
  5. Dec. 28 Belk (Charlotte): (ACC No. 5) North Carolina
  6. Dec. 30 Music City (Nashville): (ACC No. 6) Syracuse
  7. Dec. 31 Independence (Shreveport): (ACC No. 7) Duke
  8. Dec. 27 Military bowls (Annapolis): (ACC No. 8) BC
In this scenario NC State might lose out.

Coastal
  1. FSU 9-0 (7-0) wins out: SU (Idaho and Florida) and finishes 12-0 (8-0)
  2. Clemson 8-1 (6-1) loses to GT (and So Car) and finishes (9-3 (6-2)
  3. Syracuse 5-4 (3-2) loses to FSU, beats Pitt and BC finishes 7-5 (5-3)
  4. Boston College 5-4 (2-3) loses to NC State, and SU beats Maryland finishes 6-6 (3-5)
  5. NC State 3-6 (0-6) beats BC and Maryland and finishes 6-6 (2-6)
  6. Wake Forest 4-6 (2-5) loses out: Duke (Vandy) finishes 4-8 (2-6)
  7. Maryland 5-4 (1-4) loses out: Va Tech, BC, NC State finishes (5-7 (1-7) Bye Raaaaaannnnnnndeeeee
Atlantic
  1. Miami 7-2 (3-2) wins out: Duke, UVA, Pitt finishes 10-2 6-2)
  2. GT 6-3 (5-2) wins out: Clemson, (Alabama A&M, Georgia) and finishes 9-3 (6-2)
  3. Va Tech 7-3 (4-2) wins out: Maryland, UVA finishes 9-3 (5-3)
  4. North Carolina 4-5 (3-3) wins out: Pitt, Duke (Old Dominion) finishes 7-5 (5-3)
  5. Duke 7-2 (3-2) loses to Miami and UNC and beats Wake finishes 8-4 (4-4)
  6. Pitt 5-4 (2-3) loses out: UNC, SU, Miami finishes (5-7 (2-6)
  7. Virginia 2-8 (0-6) loses out: Miami, Va Tech finishes 2-10 (0-8)
Expand...

If VT wins out, they'll be 6-2 in the league. Not sure how the 3 team tiebreaker works (if GT were to beat Clemson), but I'd imagine since VT beat both GT and Miami, they'd be the team in the ACC Championship game.

Can't imagine Miami getting that 2nd BCS berth for the ACC if they don't win their half of the division.

I can see Clemson getting it if they don't win their half. Provided they are only a 1 loss team. Their offense and their traveling fanbase are a better sell.

Which is why I hope they beat GT and South Carolina. Would be good for everyone if the ACC gets 2 BCS bids.
 
Crusty said:
Never done this bowl guessing before so, no laughing. (Remember, I take pictures at the tailgate!)

10 ACC teams bowl eligible.

FSU (8-0) to BCS NC Game
  1. Jan. 3 Orange (Miami) (ACC No. 1) Va Tech (6-2 beat Miami and GT)
  2. Dec. 31 Chick-fil-A (Atlanta) (ACC No. 2) Miami (6-2 beat GT lost to Va Tech)
  3. Dec. 28 Russell Athletic (Orlando) (ACC No. 3) Ga Tech (6-2 lost to Miami and Va Tech)
  4. Dec. 31 Sun (El Paso): (ACC No. 4) Clemson (6-2 I have them losing to GT)
  5. Dec. 28 Belk (Charlotte): (ACC No. 5) North Carolina
  6. Dec. 30 Music City (Nashville): (ACC No. 6) Syracuse
  7. Dec. 31 Independence (Shreveport): (ACC No. 7) Duke
  8. Dec. 27 Military bowls (Annapolis): (ACC No. 8) BC
In this scenario NC State might lose out.

Coastal
  1. FSU 9-0 (7-0) wins out: SU (Idaho and Florida) and finishes 12-0 (8-0)
  2. Clemson 8-1 (6-1) loses to GT (and So Car) and finishes (9-3 (6-2)
  3. Syracuse 5-4 (3-2) loses to FSU, beats Pitt and BC finishes 7-5 (5-3)
  4. Boston College 5-4 (2-3) loses to NC State, and SU beats Maryland finishes 6-6 (3-5)
  5. NC State 3-6 (0-6) beats BC and Maryland and finishes 6-6 (2-6)
  6. Wake Forest 4-6 (2-5) loses out: Duke (Vandy) finishes 4-8 (2-6)
  7. Maryland 5-4 (1-4) loses out: Va Tech, BC, NC State finishes (5-7 (1-7) Bye Raaaaaannnnnnndeeeee
Atlantic
  1. Miami 7-2 (3-2) wins out: Duke, UVA, Pitt finishes 10-2 (6-2)
  2. GT 6-3 (5-2) wins out: Clemson, (Alabama A&M, Georgia) and finishes 9-3 (6-2)
  3. Va Tech 7-3 (4-2) wins out: Maryland, UVA finishes 9-3 (6-2)
  4. North Carolina 4-5 (3-3) wins out: Pitt, Duke (Old Dominion) finishes 7-5 (5-3)
  5. Duke 7-2 (3-2) loses to Miami and UNC and beats Wake finishes 8-4 (4-4)
  6. Pitt 5-4 (2-3) loses out: UNC, SU, Miami finishes (5-7 (2-6)
  7. Virginia 2-8 (0-6) loses out: Miami, Va Tech finishes 2-10 (0-8)
Expand...

Crusty -- I'll have some of what you are smoking. Just my best guess, as well, of course, so who knows who is right.

Clemson has dominated every game other than FSU, which for my money is the best team in the NCAA this year. They'll beat both Ga. Tech, the 1 trick pony, and South Carolina, which is a good but not great team-- losses at Tennessee? and Georgia but more important, lucky to beat UCF and Kentucky.

BC won't lose to NC State. NC State is the worst among the also rans Wake, Maryland, UNC, Pitt. Maryland will beat NC State as well.

Ga. Tech won't beat Clemson as above and won't beat Georgia. Ga. Tech is just too 1 dimensional to beat a team with a reasonable gameplan (not SU's 3-4) and athletes, even banged up ones.

UNC has beaten bad teams lately other than BC at home. They aren't surging. They are beating UVA and NC State, the bottom feeders.

With those changes, I think the finish out in the following records and order:
FSU 12-0 National Championship game
Clemson 10-1 BCS or Orange
Miami 10-2
Duke 9-3
Va Tech 9-3
Ga Tech 7-5
SU 7-5
BC 7-5
Pitt 6-6
MD 6-6
UNC 5-7
Wake 4-8
NC State 4-8 (I think they beat ECU, but not a sure thing just slight edge)
UVA 2-10

That yields:
  1. Jan. 3 Orange (Miami) (ACC No. 1) Clemson
  2. Dec. 31 Chick-fil-A (Atlanta) (ACC No. 2) Miami
  3. Dec. 28 Russell Athletic (Orlando) (ACC No. 3) Va Tech
  4. Dec. 31 Sun (El Paso): (ACC No. 4) Duke
  5. Dec. 28 Belk (Charlotte): (ACC No. 5) Ga. Tech
  6. Dec. 30 Music City (Nashville): (ACC No. 6) Syracuse
  7. Dec. 31 Independence (Shreveport): (ACC No. 7) BC
  8. Dec. 27 Military bowls (Annapolis): (ACC No. 8) Maryland
Pitt goes to the bullspit bowl in San Francisco to fill an empty spot.

We'll see how it all turns out. Predicting is fun stuff.
 
Instead of projecting records to bowls, I'm going to rank the teams primarily based on assumed desirability to the bowls. This shows where teams with the same or a slightly lesser record may jump other teams for a more prestigious bowl due to location, reputation, travelling fanbase, etc.:

1. FSU
2. Clemson
3. VA Tech
4. Miami
5. UNC
6. Ga Tech
7. NC State
8. SU
9. Duke
10. Pitt
11. Maryland
12. BC
13. Wake - probably wont' qualify
14. UVa - already eliminated

Nos. 8 through 12 are pretty interchangable and some of them probably won't get the 6 wins. Also, if the conference has any say, Maryland will get the least desirable bowl...unless putting them in a higher paying bowl would assist in their exit fee negotiations. Otherwise, they'll be guided (to the extent possible) to the furthest possible destination with the lowest prize (too bad the blue turf isn't available anymore).
 
Chip said:
If VT wins out, they'll be 6-2 in the league. Not sure how the 3 team tiebreaker works (if GT were to beat Clemson), but I'd imagine since VT beat both GT and Miami, they'd be the team in the ACC Championship game.

Can't imagine Miami getting that 2nd BCS berth for the ACC if they don't win their half of the division.

I can see Clemson getting it if they don't win their half. Provided they are only a 1 loss team. Their offense and their traveling fanbase are a better sell.

Which is why I hope they beat GT and South Carolina. Would be good for everyone if the ACC gets 2 BCS bids.
Expand...

Thanks, I edited it. I have Clemson losing because they always seem to lose a game they shouldn't and this could be the one.
dinosaurbbq said:
Crusty -- I'll have some of what you are smoking. Just my best guess, as well, of course, so who knows who is right.

Clemson has dominated every game other than FSU, which for my money is the best team in the NCAA this year. They'll beat both Ga. Tech, the 1 trick pony, and South Carolina, which is a good but not great team-- losses at Tennessee? and Georgia but more important, lucky to beat UCF and Kentucky.

BC won't lose to NC State. NC State is the worst among the also rans Wake, Maryland, UNC, Pitt. Maryland will beat NC State as well.

Ga. Tech won't beat Clemson as above and won't beat Georgia. Ga. Tech is just too 1 dimensional to beat a team with a reasonable gameplan (not SU's 3-4) and athletes, even banged up ones.

UNC has beaten bad teams lately other than BC at home. They aren't surging. They are beating UVA and NC State, the bottom feeders.

With those changes, I think the finish out in the following records and order:
FSU 12-0 National Championship game
Clemson 10-1 BCS or Orange
Miami 10-2
Duke 9-3
Va Tech 9-3
Ga Tech 7-5
SU 7-5
BC 7-5
Pitt 6-6
MD 6-6
UNC 5-7
Wake 4-8
NC State 4-8 (I think they beat ECU, but not a sure thing just slight edge)
UVA 2-10

That yields:
  1. Jan. 3 Orange (Miami) (ACC No. 1) Clemson
  2. Dec. 31 Chick-fil-A (Atlanta) (ACC No. 2) Miami
  3. Dec. 28 Russell Athletic (Orlando) (ACC No. 3) Va Tech
  4. Dec. 31 Sun (El Paso): (ACC No. 4) Duke
  5. Dec. 28 Belk (Charlotte): (ACC No. 5) Ga. Tech
  6. Dec. 30 Music City (Nashville): (ACC No. 6) Syracuse
  7. Dec. 31 Independence (Shreveport): (ACC No. 7) BC
  8. Dec. 27 Military bowls (Annapolis): (ACC No. 8) Maryland
Pitt goes to the bullspit bowl in San Francisco to fill an empty spot.

We'll see how it all turns out. Predicting is fun stuff.
Expand...

Funny how we both get us in the Music City Bowl, so we got that going for us, which is nice.

I agree that FSU is the best team in the NCAA this year and I think they will beat Alabama. However, Clemson's defense, while good, ranks behind GT in both overall and conference play. The key to beating Clemson could be a good D and an offense that shortens the game. If Clemson gets behind watch out for this one. If I am wrong, I'll be very wrong and Clemson will blow them out.

UNC defense has played well in conference (5th behind Clemson) while Duke is 12th (behind Virginia). Tar Heels are also 5th in total offense in league play and Duke is 8th. It is a home game for UNC as well. Larry Fedora is a good coach and I liked his offenses at Southern Miss. UNC will just keep getting better and better under Fedora.

Maryland won't beat anybody except themselves. Virginia could beat them. (Can you tell I don't like MD?)

NC State has played just as well as BC in conference play and I am taking a flyer. (Can you tell I don't like BC?)

Anyway, that's all I got. Would love to make it to the Belk, Music City or Military.

Go Orange!
 
BlazeOrange said:
Instead of projecting records to bowls, I'm going to rank the teams primarily based on assumed desirability to the bowls. This shows where teams with the same or a slightly lesser record may jump other teams for a more prestigious bowl due to location, reputation, travelling fanbase, etc.:

1. FSU
2. Clemson
3. VA Tech
4. Miami
5. UNC
6. Ga Tech
7. NC State
8. SU
9. Duke
10. Pitt
11. Maryland
12. BC
13. Wake - probably wont' qualify
14. UVa - already eliminated

Nos. 8 through 12 are pretty interchangable and some of them probably won't get the 6 wins. Also, if the conference has any say, Maryland will get the least desirable bowl...unless putting them in a higher paying bowl would assist in their exit fee negotiations. Otherwise, they'll be guided (to the extent possible) to the furthest possible destination with the lowest prize (too bad the blue turf isn't available anymore).
Expand...

Interesting post.

There are certainly many on this board whose opinion I would value higher than my own on this subject but it seems to me that other than FSU, Clempson and perhaps the Hokies, I don't see anyone on this list with an impressive traveling reputation. With respect to any given bowl, the desirability would change based on the location. For example, you can believe that Belk would take all of the Carolina teams ahead of us, Pitt, BC etc.
 
Music City Bowl...our attendance was atrocious back in late Dec 99. I was embarrassed to be a Cuse fan there out numbered 50 to 1 by ignorant UK fans. I think if we go there again we might only bring 5000 fans. Better but not great. Best to go to the Military, Belk or Orlando Bowls...realistically probably only Military will be available this year with 6 or 7 wins.

Personally I'm hoping for the Sun Bowl...but would take Shreveport second. These are my personal choices for driving ability and I realize we won't ravel to either one well but the Sun Bowl doesn't care as the locals fill it. The Shreveport Bowl would be bad unless our opponent was within 6 hours and motivated to go.
 
sutomcat said:
This is correct. The ACC has a 'one win rule' that works as follows:

ONE-WIN RULE
Each of the current ACC Bowl Partners have a provision in their contract that describes how this selection pool is composed by the available team with the best conference record or a team within one conference win of the best available team.

This rule is not liked by some of the bowls and the Gator referenced it as one of the reasons they moved away from the ACC...
Expand...
With no Notre Dame exception I believe. :bat:
 
upperdeck said:
how many of these championship games get good crowds if the few teams that travel are not in them?
Expand...

Only 3 of the 5 power conferences even have a neutral site game. Pac12 plays at the top team's home field. B12 doesn't have one. So that leaves...

SEC - seems to sell out every year. It's a workable trip for just about any fanbase, and it's an annual event for that league.

B1G - I think they are only in year 3. 1st year attendance was ok, 64k. Last year was pathetic. I would guess because it was 4 loss (but 70 point scoring) Wisconsin, with Ohio State being ineligible. Ohio State probably guarantees them a sellout this year.

ACC - We know their story. I think their best crowd has been for VT vs FSU in Charlotte. If favorites win remaining games, that's going to be the matchup again.
 
my guesses:

fsu in championship
Clemson in orange bowl
Virginia tech in Atlanta
Miami fl in Orlando
Georgia tech in sun bowl
duke in music city
us in independence
Maryland in military
bc is at large team
 
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