I adding the remaining schedule, comments and projections for each contender. There are lots of things that could happen but if expected results occur, and Syracuse can find a way to get to 5 wins, I like their chances to go bowling.
Duke 3-5
VT, UNC, at Pitt, at Miami
G Tech was their best chance to get a fourth win. I think they will probably win one of these but their defense is so awful, I don't see a 5th win
Projection: Out
Northwestern 4-4
Wisconsin, at Purdue, at Minnesota, Illinois
I see them beating Illinois at home and losing the rest of the games. SU fans should root from them to beat Purdue so they get to 6 wins. That one should be very close.
Projection: In (5 wins projected)
Vandy 4-4
at Auburn, at Missouri, Ole Miss, Tennessee
Don't see them beating Auburn on the Plains or Tennessee, but they could win at Missouri or against Ole Miss at home. Would guess they will be narrow underdogs for both games. My guess is that they split with them but they easily could lose both.
Projection: In (5 wins projected)
Army 5-3
Air Force, ND (San Antonio), Morgan State, Navy
They will surely beat Morgan State to get to 6 wins but already have a win against Lafayette, so I think they need to beat someone else to get out of the 5 win pool. Air Force appears the most likely 6th win. I think they will do it to get to 6 wins.
Projection: Out
Air Force 5-3
at Army, Colorado St, at San Jose St, Boise State
I think Army beats them. The other games could all be pretty close. My guess is they get a win against Colorado St or St Jose St to get to 6 wins.
Projection: Out
GaTech 5-3
at UNC, at VT, Virginia, at Georgia
I think they beat Virginia at home to get to 6 wins.
Projection: Out
North Texas 4-4
Louisiana Tech, at Western Kentucky, Southern Miss, at UTEP
I think their only win left is against lowly UTEP on the road.
Projection: In (5 wins projected)
UCF 4-4
Tulane, Cincinnati, Tulsa, at USF
Tulane should be a win. I think they beat Cincy in a close game as well to get to 6 wins.
Projection: Out
Stanford 5-3
Oregon State, at Oregon, at California, Rice
OSU and Rice = two sure wins = no problem here.
Projection: Out
Illinois 2-6
Michigan State, at Wisconsin, Iowa, at Northwestern
They might beat Iowa. Don't see any other wins here. And they need 3.
Projection: Out
Navy 5-2
Notre Dame (Jacksonville), Tulsa, at East Carolina, at SMU, Army
No guaranteed wins, lots of close games though. They should be able to get at least one win, probably 2.
Projection: Out
Boston Coll. 4-4
Louisville, at FSU, UConn, at Wake Forest
Two more losses, then two close games. I think they beat UConn, who appears to have given up, and then win at Wake to end the season. That BC-Wake game might have huge bowl implications for Syracuse.
Projection: Out (6 wins)
Indiana 4-4
at Rutgers, Penn State, at Michigan, Purdue
W, L, L, W. That gives them 6 wins.
Projection: Out
Utah St. 3-5
at Wyoming, New Mexico, at Nevada, at BYU
I have no feel for these MWC games. Utah St is 3-5 (1-4)
Wyoming is 6-2 (4-0), New Mexico is 5-3 (3-1), Nevada is probably their best chance for a win at 3-5 (1-3), and BYU is 4-4 against a tough schedule.
I think they only win at Nevada.
Projection: Out
Missouri 2-6
at South Carolina, Vanderbilt, at Tennessee, Arkansas
I see them losing at South Carolina, beating Vandy at home, losing at Tennessee and beating Arkansas at home. Three really close games where they get 2 wins.
Projection: In (5 wins projected)
Mich St 2-6
at Illinois, Rutgers, Ohio State, at Penn State
Let's assume they win the first two and lose the third. They have to beat Penn State to get to 5 wins. On the road. It could happen...this will be another big game to follow on 11/26. I say they lose.
Projection: Out
Maryland 5-3
at Michigan, Ohio State, at Nebraska, Rutgers
3 punches in the nose and then some ice cream to sooth the pain.
Projection: Out (6 wins)
Notre Dame 3-5
Navy (Jacksonville), Army (San Antonio), Virginia Tech, at USC
Some tough games to call there. They could easily go 7-5 but even 3-9 is possible too. I see them beating Navy and USC to get to 5 wins but announcing they will not play in a bowl game. Heck, they might do this even if they get to 6 wins.
Projection: Out (5 wins but too proud to play on)
Virginia 2-6
at Wake Forest, Miami, at Georgia Tech, at Virginia Tech
They have lost 3 in a row. Might beat Wake and G Tech to get to 4. Can't see them winning 3 of 4 though.
Projection: Out
Rice 1-7
Florida Atlantic, at Charlotte, UTEP, at Stanford
Well, they aren't beating Stanford and that is enough to eliminate them.
Projection: Out
UTEP 2-6
Houston Baptist, at Florida Atlantic, at Rice, North Texas. Another awful CUSA team but the first three teams are awful too, maybe even worse than UTEP. I already projected North Texas to beat them and will hold to that. But I also see Rice beating them.
Projection: Out (4 wins)
5 Win Club
1. Northwestern
2.Vanderbilt
3. North Texas
4. Missouri
5. Syracuse*
*=(if they can get to 5 wins)
