Bowl Math

[sutomcat]

I don't think missou get to 5 but bc will get 5. Them beating state sucked. 3 teams got in last year at 5... I wonder what it's looking like this year how many spots.

College football news projects 4 APR 5 win spots.
College Football Playoff & Bowl Projections After Week 9. Get Ready For APR
SB Nation says 1.
The college football stuff to know after Week 9

Most don't draw a distinction. Also, I could swear I saw or heard sometime last week that Jerry Palm was projecting 7 5 win schools would be required to play in bowls because of the lack of available schools with 6 or more wins. But I can't find a link...

 

[IHeartSUFball]

That would be great but really need northwestern get to 6 and duke not to get to 5. Those are two need happen now that bc prob will have 5.

College football news projects 4 APR 5 win spots.
College Football Playoff & Bowl Projections After Week 9. Get Ready For APR
SB Nation says 1.
The college football stuff to know after Week 9

Most don't draw a distinction. Also, I could swear I saw or heard sometime last week that Jerry Palm was projecting 7 5 win schools would be required to play in bowls because of the lack of available schools with 6 or more wins. But I can't find a link...

wo

 

[Finwad32]

How is that remotely comparable? 5 wins means you LOST MORE GAMES THAN YOU WON.

It's a joke. 5-7 teams should NEVER get to go to a bowl.

I agree that 5 win teams should not be offered bowl slots.

But, that is the way it is. There's enough bowls where slots have to be filled by 5-win teams. I would never expect Syracuse to turn down a bowl invite at 5 wins.

A team as young as Syracuse will get a world of positives from a bowl opportunity. Wether they have 6 wins or not is really a moot point if they're invited. It's not Syracuse's problem, it's NCAA Football's problem.

As long as someone can make money off them, bowls are not going to decrease. They may continue to increase.

 

[upperdeck]

bowl games stopped being about rewards for great seasons about 20 bowl games ago. teams get into an win NCAA being under .500 ,, HS teams win sectionals under .500 why do we care who gets into a bowl game and what record they have?

its not like every team plays the same schedule. by this logic we should play the season then decide who did well then make up a level of bowls that matches. and as the games showed last year some 5 win teams are better than some 7-8-9 win teams.

 

[MSOrange]

I adding the remaining schedule, comments and projections for each contender. There are lots of things that could happen but if expected results occur, and Syracuse can find a way to get to 5 wins, I like their chances to go bowling.

Duke 3-5
VT, UNC, at Pitt, at Miami
G Tech was their best chance to get a fourth win. I think they will probably win one of these but their defense is so awful, I don't see a 5th win
Projection: Out

Northwestern 4-4
Wisconsin, at Purdue, at Minnesota, Illinois
I see them beating Illinois at home and losing the rest of the games. SU fans should root from them to beat Purdue so they get to 6 wins. That one should be very close.
Projection: In (5 wins projected)

Vandy 4-4
at Auburn, at Missouri, Ole Miss, Tennessee
Don't see them beating Auburn on the Plains or Tennessee, but they could win at Missouri or against Ole Miss at home. Would guess they will be narrow underdogs for both games. My guess is that they split with them but they easily could lose both.
Projection: In (5 wins projected)

Army 5-3
Air Force, ND (San Antonio), Morgan State, Navy
They will surely beat Morgan State to get to 6 wins but already have a win against Lafayette, so I think they need to beat someone else to get out of the 5 win pool. Air Force appears the most likely 6th win. I think they will do it to get to 6 wins.
Projection: Out

Air Force 5-3
at Army, Colorado St, at San Jose St, Boise State
I think Army beats them. The other games could all be pretty close. My guess is they get a win against Colorado St or St Jose St to get to 6 wins.
Projection: Out

GaTech 5-3
at UNC, at VT, Virginia, at Georgia
I think they beat Virginia at home to get to 6 wins.
Projection: Out

North Texas 4-4
Louisiana Tech, at Western Kentucky, Southern Miss, at UTEP
I think their only win left is against lowly UTEP on the road.
Projection: In (5 wins projected)

UCF 4-4
Tulane, Cincinnati, Tulsa, at USF
Tulane should be a win. I think they beat Cincy in a close game as well to get to 6 wins.
Projection: Out

Stanford 5-3
Oregon State, at Oregon, at California, Rice
OSU and Rice = two sure wins = no problem here.
Projection: Out

Illinois 2-6
Michigan State, at Wisconsin, Iowa, at Northwestern
They might beat Iowa. Don't see any other wins here. And they need 3.
Projection: Out

Navy 5-2
Notre Dame (Jacksonville), Tulsa, at East Carolina, at SMU, Army
No guaranteed wins, lots of close games though. They should be able to get at least one win, probably 2.
Projection: Out

Boston Coll. 4-4
Louisville, at FSU, UConn, at Wake Forest
Two more losses, then two close games. I think they beat UConn, who appears to have given up, and then win at Wake to end the season. That BC-Wake game might have huge bowl implications for Syracuse.
Projection: Out (6 wins)

Indiana 4-4
at Rutgers, Penn State, at Michigan, Purdue
W, L, L, W. That gives them 6 wins.
Projection: Out

Utah St. 3-5
at Wyoming, New Mexico, at Nevada, at BYU
I have no feel for these MWC games. Utah St is 3-5 (1-4)
Wyoming is 6-2 (4-0), New Mexico is 5-3 (3-1), Nevada is probably their best chance for a win at 3-5 (1-3), and BYU is 4-4 against a tough schedule.
I think they only win at Nevada.
Projection: Out

Missouri 2-6
at South Carolina, Vanderbilt, at Tennessee, Arkansas
I see them losing at South Carolina, beating Vandy at home, losing at Tennessee and beating Arkansas at home. Three really close games where they get 2 wins.
Projection: In (5 wins projected)

Mich St 2-6
at Illinois, Rutgers, Ohio State, at Penn State
Let's assume they win the first two and lose the third. They have to beat Penn State to get to 5 wins. On the road. It could happen...this will be another big game to follow on 11/26. I say they lose.
Projection: Out

Maryland 5-3
at Michigan, Ohio State, at Nebraska, Rutgers
3 punches in the nose and then some ice cream to sooth the pain.
Projection: Out (6 wins)

Notre Dame 3-5
Navy (Jacksonville), Army (San Antonio), Virginia Tech, at USC
Some tough games to call there. They could easily go 7-5 but even 3-9 is possible too. I see them beating Navy and USC to get to 5 wins but announcing they will not play in a bowl game. Heck, they might do this even if they get to 6 wins.
Projection: Out (5 wins but too proud to play on)

Virginia 2-6
at Wake Forest, Miami, at Georgia Tech, at Virginia Tech
They have lost 3 in a row. Might beat Wake and G Tech to get to 4. Can't see them winning 3 of 4 though.
Projection: Out

Rice 1-7
Florida Atlantic, at Charlotte, UTEP, at Stanford
Well, they aren't beating Stanford and that is enough to eliminate them.
Projection: Out

UTEP 2-6
Houston Baptist, at Florida Atlantic, at Rice, North Texas. Another awful CUSA team but the first three teams are awful too, maybe even worse than UTEP. I already projected North Texas to beat them and will hold to that. But I also see Rice beating them.
Projection: Out (4 wins)

5 Win Club

1. Northwestern
2.Vanderbilt
3. North Texas
4. Missouri
5. Syracuse*

*=(if they can get to 5 wins)

Great breakdown! Only one I disagree with, or at least have enough knowledge to disagree with, is Northwestern. I'd be shocked if they lost to Purdue even on the road. Purdue is truly a mess - it's hard to put into words how bad they are. So I see them beating Illinois and Purdue.

Also, Michigan State lost their QB this weekend so I don't see them getting many more wins even though I think D'antonio is a really good coach.

 

[sutomcat]

Great breakdown! Only one I disagree with, or at least have enough knowledge to disagree with, is Northwestern. I'd be shocked if they lost to Purdue even on the road. Purdue is truly a mess - it's hard to put into words how bad they are. So I see them beating Illinois and Purdue.

Also, Michigan State lost their QB this weekend so I don't see them getting many more wins even though I think D'antonio is a really good coach.

Cool, makes sense to me. I am not a huge college football fan.

I follow the ACC, and a little AAC and a little of the B1G. Not much else.

At least we have the remaining schedules and some idea who to root for and against from here on out!

 

[HtownOrange]

Bowls should be pared down to 15-20. I know they make money, but it's not significant.
Additionally, non-bowl teams should get extra spring practices. This would create more parity, allow more training with the January enrolled students and allow all teams the same number of practices between the end of the regular season and the beginning of the summer training. Obviously that will never work as Alabama my lose out against a Vandy or something, but it would level he practice issue.

 

[CuseLegacy]

 

[TampaLaker]

How is that remotely comparable? 5 wins means you LOST MORE GAMES THAN YOU WON.

It's a joke. 5-7 teams should NEVER get to go to a bowl.

I agree. A better comparison would be a sub-.500 team getting an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament.

 

[JoeSU]

How is that remotely comparable? 5 wins means you LOST MORE GAMES THAN YOU WON.

It's a joke. 5-7 teams should NEVER get to go to a bowl.

So what you're saying is that the NCAA should prohibit bowls from accepting 5-7 teams?
Do you thing the NFL should do the same with Wild Card teams?

 

[Consigliere]

Thanks, Tom! Exactly what I planned on doing tonight!

 

[dollarbill44]

How is that remotely comparable? 5 wins means you LOST MORE GAMES THAN YOU WON.

It's a joke. 5-7 teams should NEVER get to go to a bowl.

It's kind of like finding a $20 bill on the sidewalk. You didn't do anything for it, but there it is. Do you walk away saying to yourself, "I'm not picking that up because I didn't do anything to deserve it" or do you pick it up and smile on fortune because you were in the right place at the right time?

 

[NineOneSeven]

It's kind of like finding a $20 bill on the sidewalk. You didn't do anything for it, but there it is. Do you walk away saying to yourself, "I'm not picking that up because I didn't do anything to deserve it" or do you pick it up and smile on fortune because you were in the right place at the right time?

So what you're saying is that the NCAA should prohibit bowls from accepting 5-7 teams?
Do you thing the NFL should do the same with Wild Card teams?

I am absolutely NOT saying that you shouldn't accept the invite. That's silly.

I simply think the fact that you can even be invited in the first place after losing more than you win, is more silly.

 

[Consigliere]

because the NCAA insists on maintaining the illusion that these are "student athletes" rather than money making vehicles. If a team has a bowl game to prepare for, then allowing practice makes sense. The optics, from the NCAA's perspective, don't look good if they allow all teams to have "bowl practices" regardless of whether or not they play in a bowl.

I think the calendar has a lot to do with it as well. Extra practices that conflict with finals would be a tough sell with no game to prep for. And extra practices during the holdiay break with no game to prep for might be difficult as well. Certainly can't make the practices "voluntary" as the peer pressure would mandate 100% participation.

 

[Briancuse]

Not deserving?
By that logic, basketball teams that don't have 20 wins should never be allowed in the NCAA tournament.

If you win 20 games you are 20-12, that is 8 games above 500, if you win 5 games in football you are two games under 500, huge difference.

 

[dollarbill44]

I am absolutely NOT saying that you shouldn't accept the invite. That's silly.

I simply think the fact that you can even be invited in the first place after losing more than you win, is more silly.

I agree that the number of bowls is silly. But, there must be a demand for all of these bowls.

 

[upperdeck]

a fball team could miss their best play for 7 days and go from 5-5 to 5-7. a bball team could miss their best play for 2 weeks and maybe miss 1 game out of 30. when it happens to a bball team the committee looks at it, there is nothing like that in fball. a bball gets multiple chances to extend the season too.

if someone is willing to pay for kids to get a reward for all the hard work fball takes why not do it. if you want a school like su to get better you have to have some kids take a flyer on them . there is a reason more schools are good than 30 years ago, this is just one of them.

 

[Cuse'91]

I agree that the number of bowls is silly. But, there must be a demand for all of these bowls.

Yes, by hotels, restaurants, and other tourism based businesses...

 

[Consigliere]

I'll add this: There are 21 teams that could end up with 5 wins that are ahead of us now in APR rankings. 6 teams already have 5 wins. 6 teams have 4 wins 9 have 3 or less. In two weeks I would bet that list of 21 is down to single digits.

Here's the list:

Duke. 3-5
Northwestern 4-4
Vandy 4-4
Army 5-3
Air Force 5-3
GaTech 5-3
North Texas 4-4
UCF 4-4
Stanford 5-3
Illinois 2-6
Navy 5-2
Boston Coll. 4-4
Indiana 4-4
Utah St. 3-5
Missouri 2-6
Mich st 2-6
Maryland 5-3
Notre Dame 3-5
Virginia 2-6
Rice 1-7
Utep 2-6

I had Kansas State in there too but my APR publication may be dated. Most recent in the NCAA's database is 2014 - 2015.

 

[orange_in_VA]

If you win 20 games you are 20-12, that is 8 games above 500, if you win 5 games in football you are two games under 500, huge difference.

If you're 5-7 you are 1 game under .500... You don't still have 7 losses if you have 6 wins. Just sayin.

Also this > Trio of 5-7 teams to accept bowl invitations go 3-0 in bowl games this season -- Nebraska, Minnesota and San Jose State
Again, just sayin.

 

[leftytg]

If you're 5-7 you are 1 game under .500... You don't still have 7 losses if you have 6 wins. Just sayin.

Also this > Trio of 5-7 teams to accept bowl invitations go 3-0 in bowl games this season -- Nebraska, Minnesota and San Jose State
Again, just sayin.

that's not how it works. 5-7 is two games under .500, as in you'd have to win your next two games to reach .500.

 

[orange_in_VA]

that's not how it works. 5-7 is two games under .500, as in you'd have to win your next two games to reach .500.

I meant in regards to the regular season which is only 12 games. You are only 1 win away from .500 at 5-7, because if you had 1 more win, you'd also have one less loss therefore finishing the year at 6-6 or .500.

 

[Briancuse]

I meant in regards to the regular season which is only 12 games. You are only 1 win away from .500 at 5-7, because if you had 1 more win, you'd also have one less loss therefore finishing the year at 6-6 or .500.

That is just manipulating stats, you could say you are 5 wins away from being 10-2.

 

[leftytg]

I meant in regards to the regular season which is only 12 games. You are only 1 win away from .500 at 5-7, because if you had 1 more win, you'd also have one less loss therefore finishing the year at 6-6 or .500.

I understand the logic. It makes perfect sense. But when discussing the term, "Team A is X games +/- .500", then that term has a particular meaning in its common usage. So while what you are saying is certainly logically and mathematically true, it is not an accurate description for what is meant by the common usage of the term. The common usage of the term is used in the way I described above, i.e. how many games do you need to win/lose in a row to reach .500.

 

[CuseOnly]

I am absolutely NOT saying that you shouldn't accept the invite. That's silly.

I simply think the fact that you can even be invited in the first place after losing more than you win, is more silly.

You do know that all bowl games are usually set in motion years in advance, right? Advertisers, sponsors, venue, dates, products, TV, etc. All are set in motion and have been for a while.

They can't just say, let's cancel our bowl because a 5-7 tam isn't worthy.

Fact is, during the season fans will watch losing/mediocre teams and they will continue to watch until the very last game is over. And they will pay to watch and attend.

Not to mention the bowl payouts.