Bowl Math

[Consigliere]

In an effort to look ahead instead of back as quickly as possible, here are the 14 teams that can drop out of Bowl eligibility with a loss this weekend with their opponent:

East Carolina vs. SMU (4-5)
Tulane @ Houston (7-2)
Purdue vs, Northwestern (4-5)
Miami (O) @ Buffalo (2-7)
Kent State vs. W Michigan (9-0)
N. Illinois vs. Toledo (7-2)
Hawaii vs. Boise St (8-1)
Unlv vs. Wyoming (7-2)
Nevada vs. San Diego St (8 - 1)
Oregon vs. Stanford (6-3)
UCLA vs. Oregon State (2-7)
La-Monroe vs. Georgia State (2-7)
New Mexico State @ Arkansas State (4-4)
Texas State vs. Idaho (5-4)

Expect a minimum of 10 of these teams to lose dropping the pool of potential candidates to 48 for what are 25 potential slots going into the week. Beat N.C. State and I like our chances.

 

[upperdeck]

ECU has navy and temple left.. a win vs SMU actually helps more as SMU has navy and USF left..

 

[IHeartSUFball]

Carlson new article today has us in the 5th spot, I have to think northwestern and or Vanderbilt will get to 6. That could move us to 3. Even if we sit 4 think that gives us a good shot to get in with 5 wins. Really hate how bc will def get in with 5

 

[upperdeck]

One interesting thing is Pitt sitting at 5 wins. if they lose to Clemson that leaves the Duke game and us to get to 6. We are ahead of Pitt in the APR. If they dont win either game ours is a play in game for a 5 win team potentially . some other 5 win teams losing helps us too

you can root for vandy to lose out
Ole miss winning one game
texas losing out
pitt losing out
ND losing 2
Ariz state losing out
kentucky losing out
BYU losing out
georgia losing out

 

[IHeartSUFball]

I know but wouldn't the goal make sure we on top 3 apr to get a bid. Need northwestern and vandy to have 4 or 6. Just to clear them out of way

 

[upperdeck]

if either team gets to 5 they might as well have 6 sine they are above us in the APR. its the teams that have 5 and get to 6 that knock us out or the teams above us in APR that get to 5. many of the ones we are looking at are actually behind us in APR so 5 doesnt hurt us.

 

[IHeartSUFball]

if either team gets to 5 they might as well have 6 sine they are above us in the APR. its the teams that have 5 and get to 6 that knock us out or the teams above us in APR that get to 5. many of the ones we are looking at are actually behind us in APR so 5 doesnt hurt us.

I guess we'll have a more clear picture from teams after this weekend but wonder what it looks like compared to last year

 

[Pyle]

I'm a math guy, and this thread still made my brain hurt.

 

[upperdeck]

One big game last night that helped. Akron lost to BG and now has Ohio next week to get to 6. Their APR is below us too.

if you look at the http://collegefootballnews.com/2016/college-football-playoff-bowl-projections-10-apr

they project 2 teams in with BC/North texas Only BC is ahead of us in APR though. Akron losing would open 1 more spot in their projection.

the MAC has several teams to watch.. Cent Mich is at 5 with Ohio and EMU 2 teams they could lose to left and they are behind us in APR too.

 

[Pyle]

Let's just win 6 and skip math class.

 

[IHeartSUFball]

Thought north Texas was in front of us, that stupid bc win over nc state may help them get to 5

 

[upperdeck]

they are.. it was a bad copy and paste i used.

BC needs to lose to Uconn, but that NC state win also means if we win this week it helps keep NC state from getting to 6.

 

[upperdeck]

Duke Winning last night was a big hurt to our chances.

we had a chance to keep both Pitt and Duke out but now one will get in either way, Duke with 5 is ahead of us and if Pitt wins they get to 6..

 

[sutomcat]

Duke Winning last night was a big hurt to our chances.

we had a chance to keep both Pitt and Duke out but now one will get in either way, Duke with 5 is ahead of us and if Pitt wins they get to 6..

Yup.

Duke plays Pitt at Pitt next week. We will want Duke to win, elevating them to the 6 win club and keeping Pitt at 5. That would mean if SU beats Pitt in Pittsburgh on the last week of the regular season, they would be picked before Pitt in the event there was a spot open in the 5-7 bowl sweepstakes.

Of course, the assumes Clemson beats Pitt tomorrow. which seems a pretty good bet after Pitt gave up 51 last week to Miami...

 

[IHeartSUFball]

Yup.

Duke plays Pitt at Pitt next week. We will want Duke to win, elevating them to the 6 win club and keeping Pitt at 5. That would mean if SU beats Pitt in Pittsburgh on the last week of the regular season, they would be picked before Pitt in the event there was a spot open in the 5-7 bowl sweepstakes.

Of course, the assumes Clemson beats Pitt tomorrow. which seems a pretty good bet after Pitt gave up 51 last week to Miami...

Duke only has 4 wins tho rather have them lose last two games

 

[sutomcat]

Duke only has 4 wins tho rather have them lose last two games

If that happens, Pitt gets 6 wins and takes away a possible slot from a 5-7 team to make a bowl. A door is closed either way.

But if Duke wins, they might beat Miami at Miami the last week of the season, which would elevate them out of the 5-7 group and hopefully give open a slot there for Syracuse.

Miami also has 5 wins and play NC State next week. Crazy how many schools are competing directly against each other for spots. When in doubt, I think we should hope the schools behind us in APR, like NC State and Miami and Pitt, end up with 5 wins and the schools ahead of us, like Duke and Vandy, get to 6. Or stick at 4.

 

[IHeartSUFball]

If that happens, Pitt gets 6 wins and takes away a possible slot from a 5-7 team to make a bowl. A door is closed either way.

But if Duke wins, they might beat Miami at Miami the last week of the season, which would elevate them out of the 5-7 group and hopefully give open a slot there for Syracuse.

Miami also has 5 wins and play NC State next week. Crazy how many schools are competing directly against each other for spots. When in doubt, I think we should hope the schools behind us in APR, like NC State and Miami and Pitt, end up with 5 wins and the schools ahead of us, like Duke and Vandy, get to 6. Or stick at 4.

Maybe there will be 5 spots for 5 win teams this year

 

[Reyes39]

I'm a math guy, and this thread still made my brain hurt.

Seriously...this is me trying to understand this thread...

 

[HtownOrange]

Seriously...this is me trying to understand this thread...
View attachment 81631

No worries, HCDB has a plan to negate the efforts here by simply winning out, at worst, 2 of 3. Much easier on the brain. Is it Saturday yet?

 

[Consigliere]

Wasn't much fun working through this this week, but since I started it...

Summary - 129 FBS shools,
80 Bowl Slots,
59 Bowl Eligible teams (6+ wins),
5 teams with 5 wins and better APR than Cuse
28 teams eliminated (8+ losses or 7+ and a lower APR than Cuse) - 12 added this week

Leaves 37 teams mathematically alive for 21 slots. 10 teams with better APRs than Syracuse that have neither clinched a bowl birth (or hit 5 wins that would put them ahead of a 5 win Cuse team in the pecking order) or been eliminated from bowl consideration.

 

[IHeartSUFball]

Wasn't much fun working through this this week, but since I started it...

Summary - 129 FBS shools,
80 Bowl Slots,
59 Bowl Eligible teams (6+ wins),
5 teams with 5 wins and better APR than Cuse
28 teams eliminated (8+ losses or 7+ and a lower APR than Cuse) - 12 added this week

Leaves 37 teams mathematically alive for 25 slots. 10 teams with better APRs than Syracuse that have neither clinched a bowl birth (or hit 5 wins that would put them ahead of a 5 win Cuse team in the pecking order) or been eliminated from bowl consideration.

If we upset our way to five wins do we get in?

 

[Consigliere]

And to complete the picture, the following 15 teams can be eliminated with a loss this week:

Cincinnati vs Memphis (6-4)
Texas Tech @ Iowa State (2-8)
Michigan State vs Ohio State (9-1)
Illinois vs Iowa (6-4)
Charlotte vs Middle Tennessee (6-4)
UTEP @ Rice (2-8)
Ball State @ Toledo (8-2)
UNLV @ Boise St (9-1)
Utah St @ Nevada (3-7)
Cal vs Stanford (7-3)
UCLA vs USC (7-3)
Missouri @ Tennessee (7-3)
Mississippi St vs Arkansas (6-4)
Georgia Southern @ Georgia St (2-8)
Louisiana - Monroe @ Appalachian St (7-3)

 

[Consigliere]

If we upset our way to five wins do we get in?

I think it is highly likely. Need 16 more teams to be eliminated and based on the schedule I expect at least 10 this week.

 

[upperdeck]

uconn beat BC is huge

 

[Consigliere]

Wasn't much fun working through this this week, but since I started it...

Summary - 129 FBS shools,
80 Bowl Slots,
58 Bowl Eligible teams (6+ wins),
5 teams with 5 wins and better APR than Cuse
28 teams eliminated (8+ losses or 7+ and a lower APR than Cuse) - 12 added this week

Leaves 37 teams mathematically alive for 22 slots. 10 teams with better APRs than Syracuse that have neither clinched a bowl birth (or hit 5 wins that would put them ahead of a 5 win Cuse team in the pecking order) or been eliminated from bowl consideration.

Just noticed I had one qualified team listed twice. Revised the totals.