I know some folks people love to crap on analytics yet SOMEHOW ...you look at the BPR (EvanMiya.com) numbers from Jan 12th vs Feb 16th and it tells you the whole story that anyone who knows what they are watching could tell you.
"Can't start Maliq" - Welp, we start him, somehow we are now better
Bell wasn't playing D. Now it's obvious he's gotten better than the numbers show that. (still not great, but better)
Obvious stuff can be said about Benny, but no need to pile on.
I'd say the one surprise to me is Sy's offensive numbers but there definitely has been games where things move better when he comes in. Less turnovers, better shots. NOT last game, but still overall.
JAN 12th
| RANK | NAME | OBPR | DBPR | BPR |
|---|
| 1 | Jesse Edwards | 2.08 | 1.18 | 3.27 |
| 2 | Joseph Girard | 2.13 | 0.22 | 2.35 |
| 3 | Justin Taylor | 0.91 | 1.20 | 2.10 |
| 4 | Maliq Brown | 1.17 | 0.90 | 2.06 |
| 5 | Judah Mintz | 1.59 | 0.30 | 1.90 |
| 6 | Symir Torrence | 0.64 | 0.55 | 1.19 |
| 7 | John Bol Ajak | -0.40 | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| 8 | Benny Williams | 0.24 | 0.22 | 0.45 |
| 9 | Chris Bell | 0.19 | -0.01 | 0.18 |
| 10 | Mounir Hima | -0.50 | 0.49 | -0.01 |
FEB 16th
| RANK | Name | OBPR | DBPR | BPR |
|---|
| 1 | Jesse Edwards | 2.25 | 1.13 | 3.37 | | 2 | Maliq Brown | 1.88 | 0.86 | 2.74 | | 3 | Joseph Girard | 2.36 | 0.17 | 2.53 | | 4 | Symir Torrence | 1.64 | 0.47 | 2.12 | | 5 | Judah Mintz | 1.70 | 0.32 | 2.03 | | 6 | Justin Taylor | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.51 | | 7 | Chris Bell | 0.46 | 0.32 | 0.78 | | 8 | John Bol Ajak | -0.43 | 0.93 | 0.51 | | 9 | Mounir Hima | -0.28 | 0.66 | 0.38 | | 10 | Benny Williams | 0.03 | 0.29 | 0.31 |
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I think the numbers for performance on offense have meaning and are worth looking at.
In my opinion, the defensive performance numbers for a zone team have always been and continue to be essentially meaningless.
They say JGIII is our best defensive player. I think Joe has improved defensively over time and is better defensively than many on the board think but he is at best an average defensive player.
Trying to grade players playing the 2-3 on defense is an exercise in futility. You really have to understand the 2-3, you have to understand the abilities of the players on offense and the game plan of the coaching staff to do this right.
And even if you have all that going for you, it is often unclear who is responsible for allowing the offense to score.
Example:
NC State moves the ball around the perimeter on offense, looking for a weakness. Jack Clark moves into the paint near the area where the ACC logo is. The guards do not drop down on him and remain focused on two players on the perimeter, just outside the 3 point circle.
Clark looks up, sees Jesse has moved up slightly but appears to be giving him the 13 footer he now has. He takes a dribble and steps closer to the basket. The guards remain focused on defending the perimeter. Jesse moves toward Clark and presents himself in defensive position.
Clark looks down low, where Brown is positioned to cut off a post to the low post to DJ Burns. He sees Joiner on the opposite side of the paint, covered by Chris Bell.
He sees right again and sees Jarkel Joiner uncovered deep in the right corner. He passes it to him and Joiner takes a relatively unguarded 3.
If he makes it, whose fault is it? I think a lot depends on what the staff has told Brown. The forwards (and the guards) are constantly asked to make choices and the choice they make is based on where players on offense are and what their skill set is.
The staff knows Burns has become a key part of the NC State offense and is lethal when he gets the ball in scoring position down low. They have likely told Brown to focus on Burns when he is posting low on his side, and leave the wing in the corner alone, unless it is Casey Morsell, the top outside shooter on the Wolfpack.
Brown might be doing exactly what he was coached to do, played perfect defense. If Jarkel makes the 3, it is not his fault. You could argue the guards should have made it harder to get the ball to Clark in the high post. You could argue Jesse should have been more aggressive defending Clark and got in his face immediately.
Things are not in black and white with zone defense. Defenders need to make informed decisions in a split second based on who is where and what their skill sets are.
It is a complex equation and no one should expect some outsider grading game film to be able to make informed decisions on responsibility for defensive gaffes.
Yes, there will be some things that are obvious, but a lot of the grading is going to be a best guess, where the guessing is not going to be very informed.
