BPR Numbers as of 2/16/23

[OttoinGrotto]

Yes, with one caveat: the low frequency of encountering zones injects some risk into predicting future performance against a zone using the entire body of data. The easy way to counter this: model using only the data against zones. I imagine you'll find enough data to model, and if not: run a Monte Carlo with - I think - some Gibbs sampling (I could be wrong here, it's been a while since I built a model myself). This should yield a 'cloud' of data that minimizes outliers and increases sample size to better 'feed' the predicted range. The Gibbs sampling lets you test each variable / input for fit with the hypothesis you're testing - in essence, asking 'Is this data point valid for us in my against-the-zone D performance prediction?'

Alternatively, you could smooth the general dataset out using a zone-based normalizing algorithm.

Ah, Monte Carlo.

I'm so glad I'm not doing that stuff anymore.

 

[djcon57]

No question that his defensive impact lags; almost all models will rate bigs higher.
.

yep, this is what I would suggest when looking at most defensive analystics. Compares between C vs C, SF vs SF, etc will give truer value than between positions.

 

[djcon57]

Good info here, thanks for sharing.

One point of yours that I need to quibble with, though. I don’t recall a lot of people arguing strongly in mid-January that we “can’t start Maliq”. My recollection from that time is that most posters were very pleased with Maliq’s progress and were starting to get a little concerned about Benny (to be fair, December was Benny’s best month, so he had earned a little bit of goodwill). But after games like Va Tech (1/11), ND (1/14) and Ga Tech (1/21) - where Benny started but Maliq ended up playing the majority of the game - I saw a bunch of people basically saying ‘who cares who starts’ and/or ‘JB should play whoever is playing better’.

There was definitely more argument regarding Bell vs Taylor, with a bunch of people (myself included) who thought that Bell was unfairly taking the brunt of the blame anytime that SU played poorly. A lot of people were voicing strong opinions that JB absolutely had to bench Bell and start Taylor. There was even a comment made at one point along the lines of ‘anybody who supports Bell starting isn’t serious about winning’, which I thought was a bit over the top. So it’s interesting to see that the team has played better and that Bell has improved - because a lot of people were pretty adamant that this would not happen if JB stuck with Bell As the starter.

No issues with your points overall. Only point I would counter with is Taylor still has better overall numbers than Bell.

But that isn’t what caught my eye. It was more that Bell has definitely looked better to the eye on D and the numbers appear to match

 

[rrlbees]

Ah, Monte Carlo.

I'm so glad I'm not doing that stuff anymore.

Don’t like risk management?

 

[CuseFaninVT]

Bayesian analysis here points to Joe as the worst defender (lower number = worse defenive rating)

Defensive

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Don’t like risk management?

Given that my middle name is Danger?

No.

 

[AlaskaSU]

Who said this?

What else is the nepotism allegation about?

 

[OrangeDW]

I'm very happy for Maliq. It's been clear he was efficiently productive for a while.

Reading this, not that we would be world beaters, but if we had a well-rounded small forward to go opposite Maliq, this team could potentially do some real damage.

I've been saying J4M lineup, but JT just hasn't been consistent (even tho I still think he's a better bet than Bell and should start over him), but if we just had a solid, dependable veteran wing we would be looking so much better.

Good stuff.

The “why didn’t we go for a portal wing” is likely to be a question that haunts us when we talk about this team.

 

[two3zone]

What else is the nepotism allegation about?

Not bringing other players in.

 

[AlaskaSU]

So, on one hand (portal speculation) pure conjecture and on the other (Benny is better) irrationality. As to the portal charges, Cole Swider says hello. The nepotism charges were sad.