Bracketology

[jncuse]

What bracket rules? Getting to start in Brooklyn would be amazing

As a 7 seed we would play our first 2 rounds, wherever the #2 seed in our region is based. Right now the #2 seeds by consensus are Iowa, UNC, Xavier, Maryland.. So as of now, Brooklyn would not seem like a possibility as a 7 seed.

When Nova was a 1, we were an 8/9... Nova and Syracuse in Brooklyn seemed to fit the puzzle perfectly.

Of course things will change over the course of the season... maybe Nova ends up as the 2 seed, or Michigan St moves up... that would make Brroklyn easier to get to as a #7 seed.

But everything is moving -- basically once you are not a pod seed* in the tourney you could possibly end up anywhere in the first 2 rounds.

* And even a pod seed sometimes guarantees you nothing if you are not on one of the top 2 lines.

 

[jncuse]

Lunardi has us as 10 seed playing LSU as of today.
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology/_/iteration/230

Both are wrong, but LSU at 7 is really ridiculous.

Lunardi is a total outlier on this one. Many people still have them out. Look at the image below -- no one else has LSU even close to a 7.

 

[Alsacs]

As a 7 seed we would play our first 2 rounds, wherever the #2 seed in our region is based. Right now the #2 seeds by consensus are Iowa, UNC, Xavier, Maryland.. So as of now, Brooklyn would not seem like a possibility as a 7 seed.

When Nova was a 1, we were an 8/9... Nova and Syracuse in Brooklyn seemed to fit the puzzle perfectly.

Of course things will change over the course of the season... maybe Nova ends up as the 2 seed, or Michigan St moves up... that would make Brroklyn easier to get to as a #7 seed.

But everything is moving -- basically once you are not a pod seed* in the tourney you could possibly end up anywhere in the first 2 rounds.

* And even a pod seed sometimes guarantees you nothing if you are not on one of the top 2 lines.

We could be Maryland's 7 seed and Maryland is going to Brooklyn. Maryland/WVU one of them will go to Brooklyn while the other will go Providence.

Xavier is likely going to St. Louis and Iowa to Des Moines.

 

[jncuse]

I just saw someone tweet Lunardi Team A 18-7 RPI 43 SOS 51, Team B 18-8 RPI 38 SOS 53. Team B beat Team A on neutral. Team B has more top 50 Ws A is 9 & B is 10.Why?

Lunardi legitimately sucks at his job if he thinks we are a 10 seed right now and UConn is ahead of us.

He is just trolling at this point.

Lunardi must really value value bad losses and UConn has none.

Oh wait, his 7 seed lost to RPI 107, 116 on neutral floors, and RPI 115 at home. So much for that.

 

[Orangemen]

Lunardi's LSU love is really odd. They are in less than half the brackets, and he's got them as a 7 seed.

I think he's low on our seed, but there are a few other 10's in there, even for some of the newer brackets. Take in the JB factor and I think we're solidly an 8, more likely a 7.

Are there any tools out there to see what our rpi is if we only consider the JB coached games?

 

[jncuse]

Glad it's not just me! How can he be that far off from Palm? Even if we're the last 7 seed for Palm, that means Lunardi has us about 10 teams behind him if we are one of his top 10-seeds.

Wichita State just lost to Northern Iowa and has an RPI of 56. They have ONE top-50 win (we have 6). How in God's name can they be an 8-seed? How??????

Lunardi is not the only one having them as a 9 -- but others seem to have them barely in or only in as MVC Champ today. Eye yest vs Resume.
They just better hope they win the MVC.

One other point -- if they win the MVC. I do get the feeling that the committee uses power rankings to help them seed one bid or low bid leagues based on what I have seen in the past. And the power rankings do like Wichita St.

Which is why I can see them seeded 8-10, but at the same time not being an at-large if they lose the MVC.

 

[Dave85]

He's actually starting to piss me off now. Is he legit trolling at this point?

I thought the Allstate guy who was beat up on the left side was Lunardi.

 

[jncuse]

We could be Maryland's 7 seed and Maryland is going to Brooklyn. Maryland/WVU one of them will go to Brooklyn while the other will go Providence.

Xavier is likely going to St. Louis and Iowa to Des Moines.

You are indeed correct -- I was thinking Maryland in Raleigh, but those are already occupied as of now.

Then it just comes down to whether there are ACC teams on the 3 and 6 line, and whether the committee wants to avoid inter-conference matchups until the regional (8 teams or less). They are rare but potential interconference matchups in the sweet 16 have increased from 0, 1 to 4 the last 3 years.

 

[Dave85]

The more interesting question is if we win out the rest of the games and 1 or 2 ACC tournament games then what will our seeding be?

How high can we go? Regardless, Lunardi will continue to have us as first out.

 

[Alsacs]

You are indeed correct -- I was thinking Maryland in Raleigh, but those are already occupied as of now.

Then it just comes down to whether there are ACC teams on the 3 and 6 line, and whether the committee wants to avoid inter-conference matchups until the regional (8 teams or less). They are rare but potential interconference matchups in the sweet 16 have increased from 0, 1 to 4 the last 3 years.

I hope we play UVA in the ACCT just so the committee won't put us with UVA until a potential Elite 8 matchup. The committee will not place intra-conference matchups before the Elite 8 unless they only played 1 time before the tournament.

Thus if we play UVA/Duke/Miami again we won't see them potentially before an Elite 8 game.

 

[jncuse]

The more interesting question is if we win out the rest of the games and 1 or 2 ACC tournament games then what will our seeding be?

How high can we go? Regardless, Lunardi will continue to have us as first out.

All of the games including AT UNC and AT Louisville? If we are going to do that, might as well give us the ACC tourney as well!!

Using RPI Wizard, I assumed we won all our games, and beat FSU, Miami and Virginia in the ACC tourney. In that case our RPI is projected at #15. I'm thinking a 2/3 seed if we win out. But that is highly unlikely scenario.

If we lost one more game all season (and made a run in the ACC), I am thinking 3/4.

If we lost 2 more games (and won at least a game in the ACC). I am thinking 4/5, maybe a 6.

 

[SoBeCuse]

I will be VERY impressed if they beat Louisville Wed. Louisville looks like they are in a tailspin but they are still the type to give us major problems with the press and getting after our ballhandlers. I'll be very interested to see how Gbinjie and Howard handle them. If the ballhandling is good Wed then we should be in good shape moving forward. Personally, I feel this type of team (not necessarily the press aspect) with their pesky guards is exactly the type of team I worry about the most in March potentially. Even more than a team with an imposing front line. If our guards have to exert so much effort dealing with the press, and, even beyond halfcourt if the offense gets so discombobulated that we can't get into our sets then we're screwed. We also can't turn Onuaku and Mathiang into All-Americans Wed.

If we look good Wed then I would feel much better about facing a Wichita St or Dayton type potentially in the Tourney.

 

[jncuse]

I hope we play UVA in the ACCT just so the committee won't put us with UVA until a potential Elite 8 matchup. The committee will not place intra-conference matchups before the Elite 8 unless they only played 1 time before the tournament.

Thus if we play UVA/Duke/Miami again we won't see them potentially before an Elite 8 game.

Yes - I would rather rely on a hard rule (2 games) rather than a preference they may be moving on from.

 

[Marsh01]

I will be VERY impressed if they beat Louisville Wed. Louisville looks like they are in a tailspin but they are still the type to give us major problems with the press and getting after our ballhandlers. I'll be very interested to see how Gbinjie and Howard handle them. If the ballhandling is good Wed then we should be in good shape moving forward. Personally, I feel this type of team (not necessarily the press aspect) with their pesky guards is exactly the type of team I worry about the most in March potentially. Even more than a team with an imposing front line. If our guards have to exert so much effort dealing with the press, and, even beyond halfcourt if the offense gets so discombobulated that we can't get into our sets then we're screwed. We also can't turn Onuaku and Mathiang into All-Americans Wed.

If we look good Wed then I would feel much better about facing a Wichita St or Dayton type potentially in the Tourney.

No doubt. Not a great matchup with them and I would be very surprised (but thrilled) if we can come out with a W.

I would take a split this week in a heartbeat. Just cant go 0-2

 

[jncuse]

Lunardi's LSU love is really odd. They are in less than half the brackets, and he's got them as a 7 seed.

I think he's low on our seed, but there are a few other 10's in there, even for some of the newer brackets. Take in the JB factor and I think we're solidly an 8, more likely a 7.

Are there any tools out there to see what our rpi is if we only consider the JB coached games?

RPI #11 according to the RPI Wizard on rpiforecast.com... I dropped the 9 games and our remaining schedule.

The RPI is 16 if we project the rest of our regular season games based on the probability the site has. Just note the SOS is a little skewed because our schedule ends up having a few less cupcake games. (and a cupcake loss)

 

[Orangemen]

RPI #11 according to the RPI Wizard on rpiforecast.com... I dropped the 9 games and our remaining schedule.

The RPI is 16 if we project the rest of our regular season games based on the probability the site has. Just note the SOS is a little skewed because our schedule ends up having a few less cupcake games. (and a cupcake loss)

View attachment 55537

Good info. Thank you.

If the committee truly takes JB's suspension into account, just imagine the bitching we will hear about our seed after selection Sunday

At that point our ncaa penalty would include:
-Voluntarily banning ourselves from the ncaas in a year where everyone has now convinced themselves we were terrible (regardless of how good our tourney odds actually were)
-having the worst part of our current season wiped from the records, giving us a bump of 2-4 seed lines.

Wow, people would be pissed off.

That would be a lot of fun.

 

[Dave85]

I will be VERY impressed if they beat Louisville Wed. Louisville looks like they are in a tailspin but they are still the type to give us major problems with the press and getting after our ballhandlers. I'll be very interested to see how Gbinjie and Howard handle them. If the ballhandling is good Wed then we should be in good shape moving forward. Personally, I feel this type of team (not necessarily the press aspect) with their pesky guards is exactly the type of team I worry about the most in March potentially. Even more than a team with an imposing front line. If our guards have to exert so much effort dealing with the press, and, even beyond halfcourt if the offense gets so discombobulated that we can't get into our sets then we're screwed. We also can't turn Onuaku and Mathiang into All-Americans Wed.

If we look good Wed then I would feel much better about facing a Wichita St or Dayton type potentially in the Tourney.

If we could bring a sign, what would the sign say? I'm almost afraid to ask you blokes!

 

[Moontan]

Wow, people would be pissed off.

That would be a lot of fun.

Storrs St. already is...