Bubble Watch - March 12

[jncuse]

Friday was quite the day. Some really close games in the afternoon. Some went our way, 2 didn't. Then the change in emotions and renewed hope caused by the 2 late games. Whether we make it or not, we can say we were entertained on Friday/

Saturday has a lot less going on, but some important games as well.

NOTE - THESE ARE NOT MY RANKINGS. They are based on what is in the Bracket Matrix. It's an unbiased source, which can't be tilted by a Syracuse fan. I only take current brackets from the matrix in my counts to optomize the value of the information below, and I always exclude the Temple auto bif, and move the first team out in to replace them. The purpose of doing all week is simple -- to show that Syracuse is clearly in the discussion whether we are last few in or first few out, and what needs to happen for us to move up or move down. We are still squarely in the discussion. The only time I use my opinion is selecting the teams that may not be locked.

Current Matrix Standings (Based on 76 Brackets updated March 12 posted at 12:51)
Bold teams are still playing

IN (in out of 76), but not locks
Cincinnati (74)
UConn (74) vs #60 Temple
Oregon St (73)
VCU (73) vs #57 Davidson
Wichita St (69)
St. Bonaventure (57)
Michigan (57) vs #16 Purdue
St. Mary's (52)
South Carolina (51)
Vanderbilt (32)

OUT, but still in discussion
Monmouth (29)
Syracuse (25)
Temple vs #44 UConn
Florida (10)
Valparaiso (9)

Other teams with Votes, but not in discussion - Hofstra 3, Tulsa 3, George Washington 2, Georgia Tech 2, Georgia 1


Potential Bubble Busters , Want to Win
Arkansas Little Rock vs #155 Louisiana Lafayette
San Diego St vs #76 Fresno St (MWC Final)

Auto Bid Stealers, Want to Lose
LSU vs #18Texas A&M (SEC Semi-Final)
Georgia vs #11 Kentucky (SEC Semi Final)
Davidson vs #41VCU (A-19 Semi Final)
#226 Tulane vs #140 Memphis (AAC Semi Final)**

 

[jncuse]

Chris - What is your last 4 in, First 4 Out entering tomorrow?

 

[Tom W.]

Posted this in the March 11th edition, but this is probably best place for it...

Saturday's best results for us IMO
Tip time:
1pm

• Texas A&M over LSU
• Purdue over Michigan

1:30pm

• Dayton over St Joes

3pm

• Kentucky over Georgia
• UConn over Temple

4:00pm

• Davidson over VCU (I think it's better to have VCU lose this one, but that runs the risk of having Davidson win the auto bid)

These go well for us, and I'll be giddy Saturday night!

 

[jncuse]

LSU can still an auto bid with 2 more wins

+
S0me still have Michigan on the outside. so they need the Purdue win.

Georgia trying to win this and tomorrow. i don't think they have a shot as an at-large with a win tomorrow.

 

[jncuse]

ALR had byes all the way to this point. We want them to win the Sun Belt

The best thing at this point is UConn to knock off Tenple and win AAC. Remove the possibiity for 3 AAC teams. Although it is possible that UConn loses tomorrow, they could fall back out. (1-1 against two bubble teams is not worth that much(

A bit of a dilemma. If VCU loses, they may be safe. they may not. If Davidson wins they are in the final on Sunday in a very winnable game. They would steal a bid. I am going to go for VCU in this one.

This is the worst semi-final in the history of western civilization. I think I will take Tulane. They post less of a threat to steal a bid in the AAC final

 

[Briancuse]

Can someone tell me why so many people have Witchita St in? They beat Utah, thats it. The more I am starting to go through other teams resumes, the more I am gaining some hope.

 

[jncuse]

I have concerns about San Diego St as an at large. Let's hope they just win the MWC Final.

 

[CaptainJ]

Quality work from both of you. I'm starting to remember why I loved this board so much, even if it is the alcohol talking. I'm grateful for the work y'all do to make my job as a fan easier, knowing who to root for!

 

[CaptainJ]

Can someone tell me why so many people have Witchita St in? They beat Utah, thats it. The more I am starting to go through other teams resumes, the more I am gaining some hope.

I can't speak for others, but that picture of the cheerleader with the Shocker symbol that JHJ used to post back in the good ol days on here still influences my vote.

 

[MSOrange]

Still sucks that we lost but I'm glad I didn't ust stop watching college basketball. Would have sucked to miss all that stuff yesterday. I love this stuff!

 

[CaptainJ]

Palm has us IN!!! No more "just Seth Greenberg"! Maybe I'm not delusional for issuing my $50 challenge?!?!?
(granted, it looks like the last of the "last 4", but I'd take it!)

www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology?ttag=MM16_os_lk_ns1_palm_preSS

 

[jdubs30]

Let's be real -- what are the chances SDSU, VCU, St. Mary's, Monmouth, Valpo, St. Bonaventure and Wichita State all get in as at-larges? That would be a LOT of mid-majors, most of whom did nothing out of conference.

jn - I respectfully with your list in 2 spots:
- I would have SBU in the OUT portion of the bubble
- I don't think Tulsa is in the discussion anymore.

Temple needs to win the AAC at this point I believe. Like we touched on yesterday -- the potential looms that UConn/Temple could lose to a 240+ RPI team in Tulane in the finals; I think UConn could absorb that loss and still get in, I don't think Temple could.

 

[jdubs30]

Palm has us IN!!! No more "just Seth Greenberg"! Maybe I'm not delusional for issuing my $50 challenge?!?!?

www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology?ttag=MM16_os_lk_ns1_palm_preSS

Wow. Palm historically hasn't been too accurate -- but he's been adamant against us being in the past few days.

 

[jdubs30]

FYI he has Vandy, St. Mary's, Tulsa and GW all behind us. All of those teams are done playing.

 

[sabach]

Wow. Palm historically hasn't been too accurate -- but he's been adamant against us being in the past few days.

And Palm has been adamant that JB being out is meaningless. He still has us in. If the committee does take JB into consideration, we may be in.

 

[PhatOrange]

I suspect we'll be in the play in game because it makes for good theatre

 

[bpo57]

Friday was quite the day. Some really close games in the afternoon. Some went our way, 2 didn't. Then the change in emotions and renewed hope caused by the 2 late games. Whether we make it or not, we can say we were entertained on Friday/

Saturday has a lot less going on, but some important games as well.

Current Matrix Standings (Guess for now, will update tomorrow around noon)
Bold teams are still playing

IN, but maybe not locked
South Carolina
Oregon St
UConn vs #60 Temple
Cincinnati
Wichita St
VCU vs #57 Davidson
Vanderbilt
St. Mary's
St. Bonaventure
Michigan vs #16 Purdue

OUT, but still in discussion
Monmouth
Syracuse
Valparaiso
Temple vs #44 UConn
Tulsa

Potential Bubble Busters , Want to Win
Arkansas Little Rock vs #155 Louisiana Lafayette
San Diego St vs #76 Fresno St (MWC Final)

Auto Bid Stealers, Want to Lose
LSU vs #18Texas A&M (SEC Semi-Final)
Georgia vs #11 Kentucky (SEC Semi Final)
Davidson vs #41VCU (A-19 Semi Final)
#226 Tulane vs #140 Memphis (AAC Semi Final)**

I'm struggling to see how Yukon would be in but Temple out. If that happened Temple might have the biggest beef of all time. Temple finished THREE games ahead of Yukon in the AAC and beat them twice head to head. And as usual, Temple played a very respectable OOC schedule.

 

[bpo57]

Can someone tell me why so many people have Witchita St in? They beat Utah, thats it. The more I am starting to go through other teams resumes, the more I am gaining some hope.

Because three of their losses were in November when their star point guard was out of action.

 

[jdubs30]

And Palm has been adamant that JB being out is meaningless. He still has us in. If the committee does take JB into consideration, we may be in.

We are the hardest team to pinpoint because of that. The committee chair has seemed very confident that JB's absence will be talked abou -- but we really don't know to what extend. A former committee member said he personally wouldn't consider it at all, and JB "made his bed and has to sleep in it", if the majority of the committee members feel the same way, we might be in trouble.

 

[jdubs30]

I'm struggling to see how Yukon would be in but Temple out. Temple finished THREE games ahead of Yukon in the AAC and beat them twice head to head. And as usual, Temple played a very respectable OOC schedule.

Because Temple did nothing OOC and 13 of their wins are vs. 200 + RPI teams. Their best OOC win is Farleigh Dicksinon, they did lose to 5 or 6 good teams OOC though.

UConn's numbers are better across the board and have OOC wins @Texas, Michigan on a neutral court and OSU. Not fantasitic, but they've done more than Temple to get an at-large.

UGA beat South Carolina 3 times...

 

[CaptainJ]

Not sure if this was posted before but:

larrybrownsports.com/college-basketball/six-teams-on-the-bubble-for-the-ncaa-tournament/295989
"NCAA Tournament Selection Committee Chair Joe Castiglione made it clear on Thursday morning that Boeheim’s absence would be taken into account. Castiglione spoke on ESPN’s “Mike & Mike in the Morning,” stating, “We discuss (his absence) as a factor. We are considering it without prejudice.” Castiglione added that the loss of a coach is viewed in the same light as the a loss of a key player."

espn.go.com/ncb/bubblewatch?id=192
Committee chair Joe Castiglione has been consistent on that point throughout the season, and he reiterated it on a media conference call Wednesday morning. "In Syracuse's case, we recognize you have a hall of fame coach who has assembled his team, knows his team,'' Castiglione said. "To pretend he's not a difference maker would be a mistake.'



To switch gears to RPI(being that seems to get mentioned more than the other measurements on here), from 71, I've seen it now listed as 70, 67, and 66 on different sites. I'm not sure what a UConn win would do exactly to it, but I'm eager to find out.

 

[jdubs30]

Not sure if this was posted before but:

larrybrownsports.com/college-basketball/six-teams-on-the-bubble-for-the-ncaa-tournament/295989
"NCAA Tournament Selection Committee Chair Joe Castiglione made it clear on Thursday morning that Boeheim’s absence would be taken into account. Castiglione spoke on ESPN’s “Mike & Mike in the Morning,” stating, “We discuss (his absence) as a factor. We are considering it without prejudice.” Castiglione added that the loss of a coach is viewed in the same light as the a loss of a key player."

espn.go.com/ncb/bubblewatch?id=192
Committee chair Joe Castiglione has been consistent on that point throughout the season, and he reiterated it on a media conference call Wednesday morning. "In Syracuse's case, we recognize you have a hall of fame coach who has assembled his team, knows his team,'' Castiglione said. "To pretend he's not a difference maker would be a mistake.'



To switch gears to RPI(being that seems to get mentioned more than the other measurements on here), from 71, I've seen it now listed as 70, 67, and 66 on different sites. I'm not sure what a UConn win would do exactly to it, but I'm eager to find out.

I like Castiglione has been saying -- I think those who say "JB deserved this so the committee shouldn't take the suspension into account" are missing the point -- Castiglione (and JB to some extent) have both said the basketball committee is separate from the infractions committee (which it should be), and it's their job to put the best teams in the field, period.

Obviously, what Castiglione says to the public and what happens when the committee doors closed could be completely different, I think if he took the "we will not consider it at all" stance it would be met with criticism, so who knows how much of this is political.

 

[bpo57]

Because Temple did nothing OOC and 13 of their wins are vs. 200 + RPI teams. Their best OOC win is Farleigh Dicksinon, they did lose to 5 or 6 good teams OOC though.

UConn's numbers are better across the board and have OOC wins @Texas, Michigan on a neutral court and OSU. Not fantasitic, but they've done more than Temple to get an at-large.

UGA beat South Carolina 3 times...

Nah sorry you can't finish three games behind somebody in your league, lose to them straight up twice and then get in and the other team doesn't. That's crazy. Saying they did nothing OOC isn't fair cuz at least they played a very solid OOC sked.

Btw I think they're both in regardless of today's result.

 

[jdubs30]

Nah sorry you can't finish three games behind somebody in your league, lose to them straight up twice and then get in and the other team doesn't. That's crazy. Saying they did nothing OOC isn't fair cuz at least they played a very solid OOC sked.

Btw I think they're both in regardless of today's result.

It is fair because they didn't beat any of those teams. More than half of Temple's wins have come from teams with an RPI worse than 200.

The committee doesn't look at conference affiliation nor do they look at conference standings. Temple will have 2 W's on their resume over UConn , and that's fine, but that alone doesn't guarantee inclusion over UConn.

 

[bpo57]

It is fair because they didn't beat any of those teams. More than half of Temple's wins have come from teams with an RPI worse than 200.

The committee doesn't look at conference affiliation nor do they look at conference standings. Temple will have 2 W's on their resume over, and that's fine, but that alone doesn't guarantee inclusion over UConn.

Sounds like you're putting a massive amount of value on what happened 3-4 months ago. I never mentioned conference affiliation. I have never seen a case where a team finished three games behind the reg season champ, lost to them twice head to head and got in over the reg season champ because they beat them in a semi. That will be a first.