Bubble Watch - March 12

[jdubs30]

Sounds like you're putting a massive amount of value on what happened 3-4 months ago. I never mentioned conference affiliation. I have never seen a case where a team finished three games behind the reg season champ, lost to them twice head to head and got in over the reg season champ because they beat them in a semi. That will be a first.

Yes, every month of the resume is equally important. The committee threw out the Last 10 thing a few years ago.
You never directly mentioned conference affiliation, but you implied it when you said Temple finished ahead of them - that is conference affiliation.
You're right, we've probably never seen it because that regular season champ had a strong resume to be a no-doubt at-large. It wouldn't happen in a P5 conference because the regular season champ would be a high seed. We have to remember that AAC is essentially a mid-major. Temple's best OOC win is Farleigh Dickinson -- they can't exactly hang their hat on that.

Also - to me there's a big difference in going 0-3 vs. a team and going 1-2 vs. one. You could argue we'd be a higher seed than Pitt if we won Wednesday even though they were a higher seed than us in the ACCT and they beat us 2 out of 3 times.

It is mind blowing to me that a team could have no top 200 wins OOCs and still be ahead of a team that has 6 such wins . You're focusing too much on 2 games out of 30. UConn's resume is ahead of Temple's at literally every check point.

 

[sabach]

I like Castiglione has been saying -- I think those who say "JB deserved this so the committee shouldn't take the suspension into account" are missing the point -- Castiglione (and JB to some extent) have both said the basketball committee is separate from the infractions committee (which it should be), and it's their job to put the best teams in the field, period.

Obviously, what Castiglione says to the public and what happens when the committee doors closed could be completely different, I think if he took the "we will not consider it at all" stance it would be met with criticism, so who knows how much of this is political.

I don't know why Castiglione keeps talking about it. I think the committee is more prone to criticism if they give us a bid because our coach missed some games because we broke the rules.

 

[Jake]

I don't think we get in, but I think it's a helluva lot closer than most think. I think yesterday killed us. Michigan and Uconn needed to lose.

 

[MartyCuse]

Sports center just discussed SU and Uconn for about five minutes... They were relatively positive about our chances to get in. More so than I would have expected... Now they went and got my hopes up... I should have just kept watching river monsters lol

 

[Nicknack]

I don't know why Castiglione keeps talking about it. I think the committee is more prone to criticism if they give us a bid because our coach missed some games because we broke the rules.

I agree 100%. My gut tells me that they won't admit that the Boeheim factor put us in over another team because of the crap that they would get. However, if we are just about even with another team's resume, I could see them using the Boheim factor (and just not admitting it).

 

[bpo57]

Yes, every month of the resume is equally important. The committee threw out the Last 10 thing a few years ago.
You never directly mentioned conference affiliation, but you implied it when you said Temple finished ahead of them - that is conference affiliation.
You're right, we've probably never seen it because that regular season champ had a strong resume to be a no-doubt at-large. It wouldn't happen in a P5 conference because the regular season champ would be a high seed. We have to remember that AAC is essentially a mid-major. Temple's best OOC win is Farleigh Dickinson -- they can't exactly hang their hat on that.

Also - to me there's a big difference in going 0-3 vs. a team and going 1-2 vs. one. You could argue we'd be a higher seed than Pitt if we won Wednesday even though they were a higher seed than us in the ACCT and they beat us 2 out of 3 times.

It is mind blowing to me that a team could have no top 200 wins OOCs and still be ahead of a team that has 6 such wins . You're focusing too much on 2 games out of 30. UConn's resume is ahead of Temple's at literally every check point.

I agree with some of what you say. Here is where I disagree.

You're basically saying the 18 games played in conference are meaningless.

Also saying the head to head doesn't matter. Remember I was responding to the notion that Yukon is currently in and Temple is currently out.

I don't buy for a second that all games are equal throughout the season. They can say that til the cows come home and I won't believe it. I think we can all agree that the NCAA has been very inconsistent over the years in applying its "criteria".

If all games are equal then why does the tournament chairman talk about the "eye test" ? Are they eye testing games back in November? Of course not. They're eye testing late Feb/early March. And if all games are rated equal then why are we as fans ruling teams in or out based on a game played last night or the night before? I think we know why- because they count a helluva lot more than some game played in November.

 

[cuseguy]

I don't think we get in, but I think it's a helluva lot closer than most think. I think yesterday killed us. Michigan and Uconn needed to lose.

Cooney misses a 3.

Michigan makes a 3.

UConn makes a crazy 3.

That close.

 

[bpo57]

I don't know why Castiglione keeps talking about it. I think the committee is more prone to criticism if they give us a bid because our coach missed some games because we broke the rules.

Agreed. Also, we're counting on mercy from the same institution that issued its heavy handed punishment to SU?

 

[CaptainJ]

I agree 100%. My gut tells me that they won't admit that the Boeheim factor put us in over another team because of the crap that they would get. However, if we are just about even with another team's resume, I could see them using the Boheim factor (and just not admitting it).

I think that's exactly what the NCAA has been doing with Syracuse in the past. However, in those cases it had a negative effect.

 

[upperdeck]

Cooney misses a 3.

Michigan makes a 3.

UConn makes a crazy 3.

That close.

it cooney had by far the easiest of the 3 shots.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

it cooney had by far the easiest of the 3 shots.

Cooney would have been good from 40'.

 

[Nicknack]

Cooney hasn't heaved his last 3 point shot yet. I still hold hope (no matter how small) that we see him unleash the coon on some unfortunate team IN THE NCAA TOURNAMENT.

 

[jncuse]

Can someone tell me why so many people have Witchita St in? They beat Utah, thats it. The more I am starting to go through other teams resumes, the more I am gaining some hope.

One of the commitee members said that last year they had never used rankings other then RPI so much to analyze teams. RPI is not a great measuring stick for middle tier majors (look at teams in the 40s that are just ignored). Wichita St has great power rankings - #11 in KP for example. I think they get in. Beating mid-level competition handily has its benefits...

 

[CaptainJ]

Cooney hasn't heaved his last 3 point shot yet. I still hold hope (no matter how small) that we see him unleash the coon on some unfortunate team IN THE NCAA TOURNAMENT.

This is true, I just hope it's not in the NIT. I'd love to see Coon Dog give people reason to reenact the "Shaky Potatoes" thread incident, and have folks bumping some of the Cooney threads for the same reason. I love to see folks redeem themselves, even though the hope of that is even less likely than the hope of a tournament bid. It's still hope. Maybe Boeheim could model Rocky in the latest movie, Creed, and tell Cooney to picture all the people who ever hurt him, etc.

 

[jncuse]

Let's be real -- what are the chances SDSU, VCU, St. Mary's, Monmouth, Valpo, St. Bonaventure and Wichita State all get in as at-larges? That would be a LOT of mid-majors, most of whom did nothing out of conference.

jn - I respectfully with your list in 2 spots:
- I would have SBU in the OUT portion of the bubble
- I don't think Tulsa is in the discussion anymore.

Temple needs to win the AAC at this point I believe. Like we touched on yesterday -- the potential looms that UConn/Temple could lose to a 240+ RPI team in Tulane in the finals; I think UConn could absorb that loss and still get in, I don't think Temple could.

JDubs. - I can't disagree with either if your points.

I agree that SBU should be behind us. But these rankings all week have been per the bracket matrix so to avoid anybody saying that we are in / or we are close only because I am a Syracuse fan. It is an unbiased source. Each night when I post this I guess where the matrix will be the next morning. But I update it to actual per the matrix by noon the next day. I am going to make the point that this is not my list clearer n my first post.

Tulsa was last on my out list, I was going to drop them, but I figured I would wait to see what their total was this morning. They did have 50 before yesterday.

I do disagree on the Temple point. If UConn loses to Temple, the chances are high for the AAC to be a 3 bid league. If Uconn beats Temple, the chances are high for the AAC to be a 2 bid league.

 

[McNabb2Brominski]

I think right now we could very well be the last team in. Its critical that LSU, Georgia, Davidson, Tulane and Memphis DO NOT win their conference tourney. I think that is all the potential bid stealers. Is Arkansas Little Rock going to be an at large team? if so, we need them to win.

 

[bpo57]

I think right now we could very well be the last team in. Its critical that LSU, Georgia, Davidson, Tulane and Memphis DO NOT win their conference tourney. I think that is all the potential bid stealers. Is Arkansas Little Rock going to be an at large team? if so, we need them to win.

You can add Fresno State to that list as well.

 

[We Are Syracuse]

FYI he has Vandy, St. Mary's, Tulsa and GW all behind us. All of those teams are done playing.

Bid stealers are gonna determine our fate. SDSU needs to take care of business. UCONN needs to win the AAC. That's the biggest thing at the moment. Need Michigan to get smacked which I think is possible. I LOVE Purdue this year. South Carolina shouldn't be in with their GARBAGE OOC. LSU needs to lose to A&M. Kentucky hopefully takes care of business. Want VCU to beat Davidson. My number one fear at the moment is UCONN not winning the AAC

 

[jncuse]

OUT, but still in discussion
Monmouth
Syracuse
Valparaiso
Temple vs #44 UConn
Tulsa

At the end of the day we could be down to only 2 "serious" teams being left out, whomever they may be. I like the odds of any team in that scenario/

Everyone else could be eliminated.
a) Tulsa will probably be knocked out, but I wanted to keep them in until I saw their new matrix total
b) Temple is out with a loss.
c) Too many bubble busters -- it seems lile Valpariaso will be the main team out

The bid stealers is probably the biggest factor of today.

 

[Chris02M]

Chris - What is your last 4 in, First 4 Out entering tomorrow?

Oregon state
Syracuse
Monmouth
Michigan

Out:
Vandy
St bonaventure
St marys
Sd state if no autobid

 

[jncuse]

Oregon state
Syracuse
Monmouth
Michigan

Out:
Vandy
St bonaventure
St marys
Sd state if no autobid

Do you still have Temple as the AAC Auto-Bid for now? That may also clear a spot by the end of the day.

 

[pearl31]

I'm struggling to see how Yukon would be in but Temple out. If that happened Temple might have the biggest beef of all time. Temple finished THREE games ahead of Yukon in the AAC and beat them twice head to head. And as usual, Temple played a very respectable OOC schedule.

Again, I just don't think you understand - or aren't will to accept - how teams are selected.

 

[bpo57]

Again, I just don't think you understand - or aren't will to accept - how teams are selected.

Tell me a time when that scenario has ever happened.

Here are two wagers for you:

A-10 gets four in.

Temple is in even if they lose to Yukon.

Money where mouth is.

 

[pearl31]

Tell me a time when that scenario has ever happened.

Here are two wagers for you:

A-10 gets four in.

Temple is in even if they lose to Yukon.

Money where mouth is.

IT IS DETERMINED BY TOTAL BODY OF WORK, FROM NOVEMBER TO NOW, BASED ON WHO YOU'VE BEATEN AND WHO'VE YOU'VE LOST TO.

Yes, let's bet $1 on that

 

[bpo57]

IT IS DETERMINED BY TOTAL BODY OF WORK, FROM NOVEMBER TO NOW, BASED ON WHO YOU'VE BEATEN AND WHO'VE YOU'VE LOST TO.

Yes, let's bet $1 on that

A man of conviction. $1 for each it is.