Bubble Watch - March 12 | Page 3 | Syracusefan.com

Bubble Watch - March 12

bpo57 said:
A man of conviction. $1 for each it is.
Expand...
Too bad we can't bet on your "but they played a really good OOC, even though they lost all those games that should get them in" theory
 
The Matrix has yet to be updated today. I am really interested in seeing how it plays out with UConn and Michigan moving up, and Cincy, St. Bonnie, and Tulsa losing. I think it's going to be quite tight. We will still be on the outside but I expect our % to be higher.
 
bpo57 said:
Tell me a time when that scenario has ever happened.

Here are two wagers for you:

A-10 gets four in.

Temple is in even if they lose to Yukon.

Money where mouth is.
Expand...
It literally doesn't matter if it's never happened before.
 
pearl31 said:
Re-assessing things this morning, with Tulsa, GW and Bonnies being knocked out yesterday, I feel like St.Joes has now secured a bid
Expand...
Found your post on the March 11 thread, pearl, but decided to move my response to this thread.

It's possible that SJU is a lock but I think Dayton is a bigger lock going into today because (a) Dayton had the better conference record, (b) Dayton at least has a win over Iowa, whereas SJU's best OOC win was against Princeton, and (c) Dayton's record against the Top 100 is an impressive 9-4 (3-4 against the Top 50) while SJU's is 7-6 (2-4).

Therefore, I'm rooting for Dayton today in case SJU is not a lock.
 
orangenirvana said:
Found your post on the March 11 thread, pearl, but decided to move my response to this thread.

It's possible that SJU is a lock but I think Dayton is a bigger lock going into today because (a) Dayton had the better conference record, (b) Dayton at least has a win over Iowa, whereas SJU's best OOC win was against Princeton, and (c) Dayton's record against the Top 100 is an impressive 9-4 (3-4 against the Top 50) while SJU's is 7-6 (2-4).

Therefore, I'm rooting for Dayton today in case SJU is not a lock.
Expand...
Yes, it would still be better for us for Dayton to beat St.Joes - but I do think St.Joes will get in anyway. Things get a bit dicey for VCU if they lose to Davidson, though as jn has said it would probably be best for them to get to the a10 final so that Davidson can't get the autobid. Bonnies and G.Wash both out now
 
pearl31 said:
Yes, it would still be better for us for Dayton to beat St.Joes - but I do think St.Joes will get in anyway. Things get a bit dicey for VCU if they lose to Davidson, though as jn has said it would probably be best for them to get to the a10 final so that Davidson can't get the autobid. Bonnies and G.Wash both out now
Expand...

I'm not sure if the Bonnies are out, but they certainly can't be ahead of us. At best for them, we are on the same tier.
 
jncuse said:
I'm not sure if the Bonnies are out, but they certainly can't be ahead of us. At best for them, we are on the same tier.
Expand...
Fair enough, and it's possible - but I have them out
 
Considering what the NCAA Tourney committee member said last year regarding the rankings they use...

http://www.coloradoan.com/story/spo.../colorado-state-ncaa-tournament-rpi/24829067/

"We look at RPI really as an organizer in terms of top 50 and 100, but we spent a lot of time, more time than I remember, in comparing (RPI) in the swings to metrics such as the Sagarin, Ken Pom, BPI," Barnes said. "Those are used in the room as well and talked about quite extensively. We review those metrics each week, and that carried over to this week."

...here is how the current bubbles rank when averaging the four ranking systems RPI, Sagarin, KenPom, and BPI.

Let me know if there are any other teams missing.

1. Wichita State - 46, 25, 11, 26 = 27.0
2. Texas - 26, 30, 30, 36 = 30.5
3. St. Mary's - 37, 32, 33, 31 = 33.25
4. *Connecticut - 45, 31, 29, 30 = 33.75
5. Vanderbilt - 63, 24, 26, 25 = 34.5
6. Cincinnati - 47, 33, 31, 27 = 34.5
7. *VCU - 41, 39, 34, 28 = 35.5
8. *Dayton - 19, 43, 54, 40 = 39.0
9. Butler - 58, 28, 39, 35 = 40.0
10. Florida - 54, 38, 43, 34 = 42.25
11. Texas Tech - 35, 47, 42, 46 = 42.5
12. *Saint Joseph's - 27, 53, 45, 45 = 42.5
13. Pittsburgh - 52, 34, 44, 43 = 43.25
14. Providence - 38, 44, 46, 47 = 43.75
15. Valparaiso - 49, 50, 36, 41 = 44.0
16. Colorado - 36, 48, 55, 44 = 45.75
17. USC - 51, 45, 48, 42 = 46.5
18. Syracuse - 70, 40, 41, 39 = 47.5
19. *Michigan - 56, 36, 50, 54 = 49.0
20. South Carolina - 62, 51, 51, 38 = 50.5
21. Oregon State - 34, 57, 60, 61 = 53.0
22. *Georgia - 60, 61, 65, 49 = 58.75
23. Tulsa - 61, 66, 58, 59 = 61.0
24. Saint Bonaventure - 30, 79, 79, 74 = 65.5
25. Ohio State - 72, 60, 68, 65 = 66.25
26. Houston - 85, 62, 56, 67 = 67.5
27. George Washington - 67, 65, 78, 60 = 67.5
28. Monmouth - 53, 81, 67, 86 = 71.75
29. Temple - 59, 82, 83, 68 = 73.0
30. Alabama - 74, 84, 93, 85 = 84.0

*still playing
 
orangenirvana said:
Considering what the NCAA Tourney committee member said last year regarding the rankings they use...

http://www.coloradoan.com/story/spo.../colorado-state-ncaa-tournament-rpi/24829067/

"We look at RPI really as an organizer in terms of top 50 and 100, but we spent a lot of time, more time than I remember, in comparing (RPI) in the swings to metrics such as the Sagarin, Ken Pom, BPI," Barnes said. "Those are used in the room as well and talked about quite extensively. We review those metrics each week, and that carried over to this week."

...here is how the current bubbles rank when averaging the four ranking systems RPI, Sagarin, KenPom, and BPI.

Let me know if there are any other teams missing.

1. Wichita State - 46, 25, 11, 26 = 27.0
2. Texas - 26, 30, 30, 36 = 30.5
3. St. Mary's - 37, 32, 33, 31 = 33.25
4. *Connecticut - 45, 31, 29, 30 = 33.75
5. Vanderbilt - 63, 24, 26, 25 = 34.5
6. Cincinnati - 47, 33, 31, 27 = 34.5
7. *VCU - 41, 39, 34, 28 = 35.5
8. *Dayton - 19, 43, 54, 40 = 39.0
9. Butler - 58, 28, 39, 35 = 40.0
10. Florida - 54, 38, 43, 34 = 42.25
11. Texas Tech - 35, 47, 42, 46 = 42.5
12. *Saint Joseph's - 27, 53, 45, 45 = 42.5
13. Pittsburgh - 52, 34, 44, 43 = 43.25
14. Providence - 38, 44, 46, 47 = 43.75
15. Valparaiso - 49, 50, 36, 41 = 44.0
16. Colorado - 36, 48, 55, 44 = 45.75
17. USC - 51, 45, 48, 42 = 46.5
18. Syracuse - 70, 40, 41, 39 = 47.5
19. *Michigan - 56, 36, 50, 54 = 49.0
20. South Carolina - 62, 51, 51, 38 = 50.5
21. Oregon State - 34, 57, 60, 61 = 53.0
22. *Georgia - 60, 61, 65, 49 = 58.75
23. Tulsa - 61, 66, 58, 59 = 61.0
24. Saint Bonaventure - 30, 79, 79, 74 = 65.5
25. Ohio State - 72, 60, 68, 65 = 66.25
26. Houston - 85, 62, 56, 67 = 67.5
27. George Washington - 67, 65, 78, 60 = 67.5
28. Monmouth - 53, 81, 67, 86 = 71.75
29. Temple - 59, 82, 83, 68 = 73.0
30. Alabama - 74, 84, 93, 85 = 84.0

*still playing
Expand...

Great research. I bolded the teams that I think are most relevant to our chances. We would be in based on those rankings of the bold teams.

Am I being too friendly to South Carolina having them as not in the discussion. 1-1 vs top 50, 8-5 vs top 100. Maybe -- I will need to re-evaluate whether they are really on another tier than us.

I am a little concerned by how well St. Mary's does on this metric
 
orangenirvana said:
Considering what the NCAA Tourney committee member said last year regarding the rankings they use...

http://www.coloradoan.com/story/spo.../colorado-state-ncaa-tournament-rpi/24829067/

"We look at RPI really as an organizer in terms of top 50 and 100, but we spent a lot of time, more time than I remember, in comparing (RPI) in the swings to metrics such as the Sagarin, Ken Pom, BPI," Barnes said. "Those are used in the room as well and talked about quite extensively. We review those metrics each week, and that carried over to this week."

...here is how the current bubbles rank when averaging the four ranking systems RPI, Sagarin, KenPom, and BPI.

Let me know if there are any other teams missing.

1. Wichita State - 46, 25, 11, 26 = 27.0
2. Texas - 26, 30, 30, 36 = 30.5
3. St. Mary's - 37, 32, 33, 31 = 33.25
4. *Connecticut - 45, 31, 29, 30 = 33.75
5. Vanderbilt - 63, 24, 26, 25 = 34.5
6. Cincinnati - 47, 33, 31, 27 = 34.5
7. *VCU - 41, 39, 34, 28 = 35.5
8. *Dayton - 19, 43, 54, 40 = 39.0
9. Butler - 58, 28, 39, 35 = 40.0
10. Florida - 54, 38, 43, 34 = 42.25
11. Texas Tech - 35, 47, 42, 46 = 42.5
12. *Saint Joseph's - 27, 53, 45, 45 = 42.5
13. Pittsburgh - 52, 34, 44, 43 = 43.25
14. Providence - 38, 44, 46, 47 = 43.75
15. Valparaiso - 49, 50, 36, 41 = 44.0
16. Colorado - 36, 48, 55, 44 = 45.75
17. USC - 51, 45, 48, 42 = 46.5
18. Syracuse - 70, 40, 41, 39 = 47.5
19. *Michigan - 56, 36, 50, 54 = 49.0
20. South Carolina - 62, 51, 51, 38 = 50.5
21. Oregon State - 34, 57, 60, 61 = 53.0
22. *Georgia - 60, 61, 65, 49 = 58.75
23. Tulsa - 61, 66, 58, 59 = 61.0
24. Saint Bonaventure - 30, 79, 79, 74 = 65.5
25. Ohio State - 72, 60, 68, 65 = 66.25
26. Houston - 85, 62, 56, 67 = 67.5
27. George Washington - 67, 65, 78, 60 = 67.5
28. Monmouth - 53, 81, 67, 86 = 71.75
29. Temple - 59, 82, 83, 68 = 73.0
30. Alabama - 74, 84, 93, 85 = 84.0

*still playing
Expand...
Good stuff, UConn and Texas A&M winning their tournaments could help bring our rpi back down, killing our average right now.
 
orangenirvana said:
Considering what the NCAA Tourney committee member said last year regarding the rankings they use...

http://www.coloradoan.com/story/spo.../colorado-state-ncaa-tournament-rpi/24829067/

"We look at RPI really as an organizer in terms of top 50 and 100, but we spent a lot of time, more time than I remember, in comparing (RPI) in the swings to metrics such as the Sagarin, Ken Pom, BPI," Barnes said. "Those are used in the room as well and talked about quite extensively. We review those metrics each week, and that carried over to this week."

...here is how the current bubbles rank when averaging the four ranking systems RPI, Sagarin, KenPom, and BPI.

Let me know if there are any other teams missing.

1. Wichita State - 46, 25, 11, 26 = 27.0
2. Texas - 26, 30, 30, 36 = 30.5
3. St. Mary's - 37, 32, 33, 31 = 33.25
4. *Connecticut - 45, 31, 29, 30 = 33.75
5. Vanderbilt - 63, 24, 26, 25 = 34.5
6. Cincinnati - 47, 33, 31, 27 = 34.5
7. *VCU - 41, 39, 34, 28 = 35.5
8. *Dayton - 19, 43, 54, 40 = 39.0
9. Butler - 58, 28, 39, 35 = 40.0
10. Florida - 54, 38, 43, 34 = 42.25
11. Texas Tech - 35, 47, 42, 46 = 42.5
12. *Saint Joseph's - 27, 53, 45, 45 = 42.5
13. Pittsburgh - 52, 34, 44, 43 = 43.25
14. Providence - 38, 44, 46, 47 = 43.75
15. Valparaiso - 49, 50, 36, 41 = 44.0
16. Colorado - 36, 48, 55, 44 = 45.75
17. USC - 51, 45, 48, 42 = 46.5
18. Syracuse - 70, 40, 41, 39 = 47.5
19. *Michigan - 56, 36, 50, 54 = 49.0
20. South Carolina - 62, 51, 51, 38 = 50.5
21. Oregon State - 34, 57, 60, 61 = 53.0
22. *Georgia - 60, 61, 65, 49 = 58.75
23. Tulsa - 61, 66, 58, 59 = 61.0
24. Saint Bonaventure - 30, 79, 79, 74 = 65.5
25. Ohio State - 72, 60, 68, 65 = 66.25
26. Houston - 85, 62, 56, 67 = 67.5
27. George Washington - 67, 65, 78, 60 = 67.5
28. Monmouth - 53, 81, 67, 86 = 71.75
29. Temple - 59, 82, 83, 68 = 73.0
30. Alabama - 74, 84, 93, 85 = 84.0

*still playing
Expand...
Here are the current "outliers", a.k.a. teams that have manipulated their RPI ratings similar to Colorado State last season and should be in trouble tomorrow if the committee judges teams similarly to last season:

Dayton - 19 RPI, averages 45.7 in the other three rankings
Saint Joseph's - 27 RPI, averages 47.7 in the other three rankings
Colorado - 36 RPI, averages 49.0 in the other three rankings
Oregon State - 34 RPI, 59.3
Saint Bonaventure - 30 RPI, 77.3
Monmouth - 53 RPI, 78.0
Temple - 59 RPI, 77.7

Teams with abnormally poor RPI who in turn could receive more credit from the committee than the current perception:

Wichita State - 46 RPI, 20.7
Connecticut - 45 RPI, 30.0
Vanderbilt - 63 RPI, 25.0
Cincinnati - 47 RPI, 30.3
Butler - 58 RPI, 34.0
Florida - 54 RPI, 38.3
Syracuse - 70 RPI, 40.0
South Carolina - 62 RPI, 46.7
Houston - 85 RPI, 61.7
 
Last edited:
orangenirvana said:
Considering what the NCAA Tourney committee member said last year regarding the rankings they use...

http://www.coloradoan.com/story/spo.../colorado-state-ncaa-tournament-rpi/24829067/

"We look at RPI really as an organizer in terms of top 50 and 100, but we spent a lot of time, more time than I remember, in comparing (RPI) in the swings to metrics such as the Sagarin, Ken Pom, BPI," Barnes said. "Those are used in the room as well and talked about quite extensively. We review those metrics each week, and that carried over to this week."

...here is how the current bubbles rank when averaging the four ranking systems RPI, Sagarin, KenPom, and BPI.

Let me know if there are any other teams missing.

1. Wichita State - 46, 25, 11, 26 = 27.0
2. Texas - 26, 30, 30, 36 = 30.5
3. St. Mary's - 37, 32, 33, 31 = 33.25
4. *Connecticut - 45, 31, 29, 30 = 33.75
5. Vanderbilt - 63, 24, 26, 25 = 34.5
6. Cincinnati - 47, 33, 31, 27 = 34.5
7. *VCU - 41, 39, 34, 28 = 35.5
8. *Dayton - 19, 43, 54, 40 = 39.0
9. Butler - 58, 28, 39, 35 = 40.0
10. Florida - 54, 38, 43, 34 = 42.25
11. Texas Tech - 35, 47, 42, 46 = 42.5
12. *Saint Joseph's - 27, 53, 45, 45 = 42.5
13. Pittsburgh - 52, 34, 44, 43 = 43.25
14. Providence - 38, 44, 46, 47 = 43.75
15. Valparaiso - 49, 50, 36, 41 = 44.0
16. Colorado - 36, 48, 55, 44 = 45.75
17. USC - 51, 45, 48, 42 = 46.5
18. Syracuse - 70, 40, 41, 39 = 47.5
19. *Michigan - 56, 36, 50, 54 = 49.0
20. South Carolina - 62, 51, 51, 38 = 50.5
21. Oregon State - 34, 57, 60, 61 = 53.0
22. *Georgia - 60, 61, 65, 49 = 58.75
23. Tulsa - 61, 66, 58, 59 = 61.0
24. Saint Bonaventure - 30, 79, 79, 74 = 65.5
25. Ohio State - 72, 60, 68, 65 = 66.25
26. Houston - 85, 62, 56, 67 = 67.5
27. George Washington - 67, 65, 78, 60 = 67.5
28. Monmouth - 53, 81, 67, 86 = 71.75
29. Temple - 59, 82, 83, 68 = 73.0
30. Alabama - 74, 84, 93, 85 = 84.0

*still playing
Expand...
Well -- there's a lot of teams ahead of us there...
 
jncuse said:
I am a little concerned by how well St. Mary's does on this metric
Expand...
Yeah that could be a problem. But the committee will also consider quality wins - and St. Mary's has exactly 0 of those.
 
orangenirvana said:
Yeah that could be a problem. But the committee will also consider quality wins - and St. Mary's has exactly 0 of those.
Expand...

For sure the 0 top 50 wins is big. Just my opinion, but I think they defer to power rankings a little more for mid-majors because they just don't have game samples.
 
13 points for LSU at the half. I was mainly watching Purdue Michigan. I'm sorry I missed that offensive excitement.
 
The Bracket Matrix Standings have been updated on the first post.

I am surprised that the Bonnies only took a minor hit (still in on 46 of 56)
The team that took a big hit that surprise me was South Carolina losing to Georgia. They are down to 36 of 56.
 
Ben Simmons be popping soon.
 
So far so good at the half

upload_2016-3-12_13-53-12.png


upload_2016-3-12_13-53-31.png
 
jdubs30 said:
We are the hardest team to pinpoint because of that. The committee chair has seemed very confident that JB's absence will be talked abou -- but we really don't know to what extend. A former committee member said he personally wouldn't consider it at all, and JB "made his bed and has to sleep in it", if the majority of the committee members feel the same way, we might be in trouble.
Expand...

That makes no sense, its not about why he is suspended, you are trying to figure out the best teams, and not having a hof coach is a factor.
 
2-2 so far. Need UK to beat GA. GA a sneaky team nobody is talking about.
 
GoHamSU said:
2-2 so far. Need UK to beat GA. GA a sneaky team nobody is talking about.
Expand...
i looked at there resume but to get in they have to win the tournament
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

SWC75
Against Ranked Teams - Basketball - after Week 1
Replies
0
Views
319
SWC75
SWC75
SWC75
The Undefeated - After Week 7
Replies
0
Views
245
SWC75
SWC75

Forum statistics

Threads
170,426
Messages
4,890,975
Members
5,996
Latest member
meierscreek

Share this page

Online statistics

Members online
286
Guests online
1,175
Total visitors
1,461
Totals may include hidden visitors.


...
Top Bottom