Ryand877
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Was thinking the same.
Bubble Watch - Mon, Feb 27 to Fri, March 3
- Thread starter jncuse
- Start date
pearl31
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again though, all Wake was really lacking was a marquee win and now they have it - you can certainly argue their top-50-wins metric is still sorely lacking but their #s are great, no bad losses and now the big l'vlle win... recency or not, they have a (relative to the other bubble teams) a legit resume
orangenirvana
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I don't think they're out of it. I just don't think they would make it if the Tourney began today - as big as the Louisville win was for them.
pearl31
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basically agree, but it could go either way for them - they're that close now - I think they for sure need two more wins minimum - if selections were today they'd be a coin toss, imo
Knicks411
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Maybe even 3? They are setting up to have BC in round 1 in Brooklyn, that win can't move the needle for them, right?
pearl31
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well, if they can win @ VT then the BC win would probably be enough IMO
Knicks411
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Forgot who they were playing Sat; I can see that. That would be their 2 best wins of the year in the final week of the season
SoBeCuse
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We need to win 2 more to feel safe. If we don't and Wake wins 2 more then they get our spot, IMO. That win was huge against Louisville. They actually belonged on the court with them. If some committee members go the subjective route and were watching theirs and our last performance vs UL then it wouldn't even be a long debate. Take care of GTech tomorrow and GTech has no shot unless they get to like the ACC Title game. Clemson is done unless they get to ACC Title game. The last spot up for grabs from the ACC will be between Wake and SU. Or if both keep winning then both get in easily.
jncuse
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That is possibly true. There can be some recency bias in there. I also think it's an element of things being so close at the bottom.
Remember we took a massive leap to after beating Duke, and we have generally maintained our position with no wins in about 10 days.
jncuse
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We are at 43/53 today (81%). We gained back due to the loss of Cal last night which went from 51% to 15%.
So at the end of the day, while we had up and downs this week around us, we came back to about where we started.
So at the end of the day, while we had up and downs this week around us, we came back to about where we started.
Joe LunardiSenior Writer, ESPN.com
Bubble update (FRI, 300p, ET) -- LAST BYES: Syracuse, Seton Hall, Providence, Marquette; LAST IN: Xavier, USC, Wake Forest, Vandy. FIRST OUT: URI, Cal, Illinois, Georgia Tech. NEXT OUT: K-State, Georgia, Iowa, Clemson.
Bubble update (FRI, 300p, ET) -- LAST BYES: Syracuse, Seton Hall, Providence, Marquette; LAST IN: Xavier, USC, Wake Forest, Vandy. FIRST OUT: URI, Cal, Illinois, Georgia Tech. NEXT OUT: K-State, Georgia, Iowa, Clemson.
I really don't get the Clemson thing, they are one game over 500, and 5-12 in the league. How are they even being talked about?
jncuse
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I think at this point if you want to get all the way down to the #8 team out the pickings are quite slim and you have to pick somebody (the other choices would probably be something like Houston or Ohio St)
#8 team out right now is no longer very close. They can get in with a run, but they are not a major win from being back in the discussion.
jncuse
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You know how weak the bubble is at #68. Georgia is like #74, so the demands for that position are even lower.
You also have to remember that the SEC has a really unbalanced schedule.
Georgia plays the following teams twice - Kentucky, Florida, South Carolina, Auburn, Alabama,
EDIT - It doesn't seem the division thing is still in place, but Georgia gets hammered in the unbalanced schedule. It plays the best 3 teams twice, and plays two decent teams twice. It plays all the bad teams in the league only once.
At the same time they have not taken advantage of their opportunities,and you have to win some of those games at home. They may also be the most unlucky teams in the conference -- they have had bad luck end of games over and over.
Another pont with Georgia - They were blatantly screwed out of a road win at Texas am -- in a clocking error (and subsequent referee decision) that was so terrible that the committee may wipe the loss.
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djorange1989
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I agree that we need 2 more to feel safe, that would essentially clinch it for us. Don't quite agree that if Wake wins 2 and we don't that we will be out, unless we win zero, then we are dead. Wake wins 2 and we beat Tech and then lose the first ACC tourney game, then it's up in the air, but think we still would have a decent shot. let's just take care of business tomorrow first!
jncuse
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I have a feeling it doesn't come down to us and Wake for the final spot. Many other moving parts than just them. But I have seen nothing so far this week to change my view of 50/50 if we beat Tech and then lose. Not even leaning to either side. Complete toss up.
That first ACC win will be needed to feel safer.
That first ACC win will be needed to feel safer.
jncuse
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Not many games of interest today. In the MVC it comes down to who we prefer as the at-large team to go against:
So let's cheer for Wichita St, and take our chances with Illinois St as an at-large -- who is a decent at large pick but nothing more than that.
9 top 100 rpi wins high non conf sos rpi/bpi and kenpom are all decent.similar to clemson in that there metrics are good but not enough quality wins
With Illinois State's win today it seems that if they win one more and get to the MVC Final then there will be two teams getting in out of the MVC. In fact I think the odds favor two even if one of them stub their toe tomorrow.
orangenirvana
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Yeah because a win over 16-17 Evansville followed by a loss to #150 SIU will really impress the committee. What?
The only way the MVC gets two bids is if Illinois State wins the championship.
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lol wishful thinking on your part. #31 in RPI, #45 in kenpom yet you act as if they're Coppin State. I'll put a finer point on it. Ill State wins tomorrow then they're a friggin lock to make the tournament.
orangenirvana
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A friendly wager may be in store here. They're not giving an at-large bid to a team with two Top 100 wins (both at home).
Bring it on. Why don't we see how they do against SIU? If they win then we'll concoct a bet. The betting window will be open all day long.
NineOneSeven
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Keep us all posted
