Bubble Watch - Week from Feb 20th to Feb 26th

[jncuse]

TUESDAY GAMES

This first slate is interesting -- head to head battles between bubble teams. and Alabama which has the comp to our @UNC game tonight.

LSU 5th last team out. Road win would be nice for them, but they are a dog here. Let's finish these guys off tonight. Then maybe Ben Simmons can focus on his classes...

Vandy (7th last team out) at #9 seed Florida. This sort of a 50/50 game for us. You can see the good in either team winning.

Alabama (4th last team in)... I think this would be similar to us beating UNC. Almost locks it up. But the odds are not in their favour.

Temple (Last Team In) at Tulsa (2nd Last Team Out). Preface this by saying that Temple is probably not in, but some people have them in as conference leader. But they are not far off. Probably another 50-50 game for us. Those teams are so close. If anything I would prefer a team not get a quality road win so lean to Tulsa.

 

[jncuse]

LOL

 

[jncuse]

No one has Ohio St in yet, but a top 25 home win here will probably result in some putting them in as of now.

 

[pearl31]

View attachment 56087

LOL

hey come on man, Gophers gonna grab a winning streak!

 

[jncuse]

Probably one of those nights that you will want to cheer for UK (If possible). An Alabama win may steal a seed for them,

 

[pearl31]

Early bubble-related games tonight all good for us - with the possible exception of Vandy whooping @ Fla (though that one's pretty much a wash)

 

[jncuse]

Overall, no real damage tonight. The two teams who could do something really good (Alabama and Ohio St) did not. Somebody had to win the Vandy game.

LSU and Clemson was an additional bonus. They could get an at-large still but both will need improbable runs now.

 

[jdubs30]

Overall, no real damage tonight. The two teams who could do something really good (Alabama and Ohio St) did not. Somebody had to win the Vandy game.

LSU and Clemson was an additional bonus. They could get an at-large still but both will need improbable runs now.

Really good night honestly.

This is what some people have to realize, there are several times behind us who are struggling and missing the chances for solid wins. If you looki at the whole landscape we are in solid shape -- especially with a lot of these teams continuing to lose.

 

[orangenirvana]

Early bubble-related games tonight all good for us - with the possible exception of Vandy whooping @ Fla (though that one's pretty much a wash)

And yet - SU's RPI continues to fall. Now at #59. Not good.

 

[cuseguy]

And yet - SU's RPI continues to fall. Now at #59. Not good.

Should have beat Pitt.

 

[Knicks411]

Really good night honestly.

This is what some people have to realize, there are several times behind us who are struggling and missing the chances for solid wins. If you looki at the whole landscape we are in solid shape -- especially with a lot of these teams continuing to lose.

Also, for what it's worth, there are 3 additional teams making the field from the last time we were on the bubble

 

[SoBeCuse]

So where is Vandy right now? I think they are at 65 RPI while we are at 59. SOS 37 and us at 38. Lunardi had them 'Last Four In' last night. They are one to closely pay attention to.

 

[pearl31]

So where is Vandy right now? I think they are at 65 RPI while we are at 59. SOS 37 and us at 38. Lunardi had them 'Last Four In' last night. They are one to closely pay attention to.

yep, last night's win at Fla helped them alot (for now) and yeah, they have 1 top-25 rpi win to our 2, and 4 top-50 wins to our 5 - so they're definitely a direct competitor of ours now.

edit: and KenPom loves Vandy too - they're in top 25 of his overall rankings

 

[pearl31]

And yet - SU's RPI continues to fall. Now at #59. Not good.

depends which rpi source you look at (they're all essentially the same but use slightly different calculations) - the one I just looked at this morning shows us at 52

 

[SoBeCuse]

yep, last night's win at Fla helped them alot (for now) and yeah, they have 1 top-25 rpi win to our 2, and 4 top-50 wins to our 5 - so they're definitely a direct competitor of ours now.

edit: and KenPom loves Vandy too - they're in top 25 of his overall rankings

Right, they are high in the BPI as well. Stallings is a great coach and VERY respected. Often he does more with less. Also, not sure how Vanderbilt not having an actual Athletic Dept factors into resources with recruiting and such. But, I would agree he is on the hot seat if they don't get in. He has a couple of legit NBA players on Chad Ford's radar currently. The only NBA players he has really had the past 10 years or so was Festus Ezeli who has stuck on a roster. John Jenkins and Jeff Taylor never stuck. I personally think they are capable of doing some damage in the Tourney.

 

[jncuse]

Re Vandy -- KP and BPI are not really tourney metrics -- but they do indicate they can end the season on a nice run. They are certainly a concern and are very capable of beating Kentucky --it will be around pick em odds wise,

 

[jncuse]

Wednesday Games

10 Seed (7th last team in) VCU - clear fave, but we have seen double digit home dogs win all year.

10th Seed (6th Last team In) - Not a home game you want to lose.

3rd last team out (39% in rate on the matrix). they are gaining much momentum -- must win. They are getting close enough now, that it may be better for us that they lose. Positives either way.

GW is 4th last team out. This is a tough road test for them, and they are not favoured. GW has VCU coming up at home next.

 

[jncuse]

Wisconsin is a 9 seed, so this is still a "safe" game for them. A loss will not really hurt them, but a road win of this quality would put them in great position

Colorado is a 9 seed. Top 25 win opportunity at home. Ratings systems don't like them -- a 5 point dog at home?

Wichita St is a 9 seed consenus wise.. but a loss like this will make them question an at-large for them.

This is a game to watch. San Diego St is a 12 seed and their resume as an at-large is weak -- they can't really absorb this loss.

 

[jncuse]

Oregon St is 5th last team in, and Washington has fell all the way back to 7th last team out. I think it would be best to cheer for Washington in this one, even if it moves them up.

 

[jncuse]

I don't think we have any near 50/50 games tonight except for Duquesne-St. Bonaventure. In all other games there is a clear beneficial outcome.

 

[orangenirvana]

I'm rooting for the Bonnies. The way they're playing, by the end of the year that could be another 'Top 25 win' notch on SU's belt.

 

[jncuse]

I'm rooting for the Bonnies. The way they're playing, by the end of the year that could be another 'Top 25 win' notch on SU's belt.

They can't get to top 25 because the SOS is going to work against them moving forward (they have a weak part of their schedule left). It's a double hit because most of the power conferences schools SOS keeps improving.

 

[orangenirvana]

They can't get to top 25 because the SOS is going to work against them moving forward (they have a weak part of their schedule left). It's a double hit because most of the power conferences schools SOS keeps improving.

View attachment 56163

Even if they win the A-10 Tourney?

 

[jncuse]

Even if they win the A-10 Tourney?

I just realized the RPI forecast has projected RPI's based on # of regular season wins. It's not as bad as I though -- if they win out it gets to around 26. (the at St. Joes game will be hard of course). So if they win A-10 no doubt about it. If they lose the A-10 final, perhaps as well. You can see how sensitive the RPI is to one loss for them,

 

[jncuse]

Some great results at the half... of course is only at the half. (A-10 is so relevant to us right now)

George Mason is beating VCU by 5 (bad loss)
Northwestern is up one at Michigan (bad outcome at home)
Duquesne tied with St Bonaventure
GW up 2 at Richmond.