Bubble Watch - Week from Feb 20th to Feb 26th
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MSOrange
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Iowa - Wisconsin should be interesting. Wisconsin hasn't been the best matchup for Iowa in recent years but a lot of teams weren't good matchups against Bo Ryan, as much as I don't really care for the guy. But Bo is gone and Iowa probably has the edge in talent this year. As a Hawkeye supporter, I hope they win and get the Penn State loss out of their system
orangenirvana
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Aggies up 68-66 with 2.1 seconds left MSU ball. Go A&M.
jncuse
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A bit disappointing in the end,
VCU did incur a bad loss to George Mason. This offsets the upward pressure caused by fellow A-10 team GW winning a road game against an average team. Slight net positive for us.
VCU did incur a bad loss to George Mason. This offsets the upward pressure caused by fellow A-10 team GW winning a road game against an average team. Slight net positive for us.
orangenirvana
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Pitt loses to Louisville.
For every Louisville win, their decision to ban themselves from postseason play becomes more and more dumb.
For every Louisville win, their decision to ban themselves from postseason play becomes more and more dumb.
And they fall to 1-6 against the top-50 (only win was ND). They only have one more crack (Duke this weekend). And Pitt has 3 challenging games left too (Duke home, but Va Tech and Ga Tech on the road). If they go 1-2, could be in trouble.
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pearl31
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yeah, but I considered both Wisc and Colo as solidly in already
jncuse
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They were in as now, absolutely. And the weakening of the last out of now pool is more important.
In my view, you still need the teams above us / near us to stay as close as possible... once they slip up (if they slip up) they are equal or behind us.
Say Colorado loses tonight -- they are about the same as us. Say we were both right on that line come selection sunday... it could be 7 teams being discussed for the last 4 spots. But if Colorado locks it up before hand (by winning huge games like tonight), its 6 teams for 3 spots.
It's just an odds game. The less locks come selection Sunday, and the more teams right on that discussion line. the better our odds become.
Less hope we make it simple by being arguably clear of that line.
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jncuse
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There is a real lack of mid-majors this year in the ar-large pool. I exclude the A-10 because they have 5 teams in contention (Dayton, St. Joes, VCU, St. Bonnie, GW).
So the classic Power vs Mid Major Comparison. Who do you have?
St. Mary's or Vanderbilt? (projected based on St.Mary's losing WCC final to Gonzaga, and Vandy going 1-1 in SEC)
W/L : 25-5 vs 21-13
RPI - About 50 vs 50
SOS - About 180 vs 30
Top 50 - 0-1 vs 5-8 (Florida 2, Kentucky, Texas A*M, Stony Brook)
Top 100 - 6-3 (includes 2-1 vs Gonzaga) vs 7-10
Bad Losses - 2 vs 3
KP - 39 vs 32 (not a metric, but I am not convinced Power Rankings are ignored for teams that have totally difference )
So the classic Power vs Mid Major Comparison. Who do you have?
St. Mary's or Vanderbilt? (projected based on St.Mary's losing WCC final to Gonzaga, and Vandy going 1-1 in SEC)
W/L : 25-5 vs 21-13
RPI - About 50 vs 50
SOS - About 180 vs 30
Top 50 - 0-1 vs 5-8 (Florida 2, Kentucky, Texas A*M, Stony Brook)
Top 100 - 6-3 (includes 2-1 vs Gonzaga) vs 7-10
Bad Losses - 2 vs 3
KP - 39 vs 32 (not a metric, but I am not convinced Power Rankings are ignored for teams that have totally difference )
jncuse
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Florida St, 7th last team out -- they need something major. This is maybe the last opportunity for them since they have such a big hole.
Seton Hall 10 vs Providence 8. I think it would be better for Providence to win. Keep Seton Hall close to us.
Arkansas Little Rock (12 seed) could get consideration as an at large with 4 losses. An extra loss would be nice.
Gonzaga is the second last team out. Its weakest resume in a while. You can't really predict how the committee will judge resumes that really are hard to compare. An extra bad loss would be nice - but let's be real this is an 8-19 team they are facing.
pearl31
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I don't know - I feel like they'd give St. Marys an at large if they get to the conf tourney champ. game and lose, but that would be it - any other team will have to get the auto bid
jncuse
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I can say I have never really figured out how they judge the real mid-majors. (i.e not A-10 level this year or MWC in prior years)... but lower caliber leahues.
I either give them the benefit of the doubt (and I am wrong)... and the years I say I'm not going to pick one (they get picked). The only one I nailed eas VCU (out of the Colonial) in 2011, and very few had them in. IIRC, the rationale I had to argue fir VCU at the timne was that they had a very good record between RPI teams 50-150 as compared to other schools on the bubble, and that was the only thing you could really compare between the schools. But I don't know if that is how they got in, or if they do that in other years.
In 2011 the bubble was kind of wacky.
I either give them the benefit of the doubt (and I am wrong)... and the years I say I'm not going to pick one (they get picked). The only one I nailed eas VCU (out of the Colonial) in 2011, and very few had them in. IIRC, the rationale I had to argue fir VCU at the timne was that they had a very good record between RPI teams 50-150 as compared to other schools on the bubble, and that was the only thing you could really compare between the schools. But I don't know if that is how they got in, or if they do that in other years.
In 2011 the bubble was kind of wacky.
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jncuse
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It's interesting on the latest matrix (updated before yesterday's game) that 7 of 104 people had Colorado out -- there is starting to be some divergence on these lower P12 teams. They are a higher avg seed then us, but more people have them out as well (before last night).
Ultimately really hurt that they had that quality win last night. And Oregon St also won late by 1 point (and they also are really being questioned, 74 of 104 before last night). I would have liked that doubt or questioning of the P12 middle to continue.
As for tonight, FSU is done.
It would have been better for Seton Hall to lose, but I guess we now have 2 teams that can theoretically fall out instead of one Providence is far from a lock...but both teams need to do some bad work to fall out.
Ultimately really hurt that they had that quality win last night. And Oregon St also won late by 1 point (and they also are really being questioned, 74 of 104 before last night). I would have liked that doubt or questioning of the P12 middle to continue.
As for tonight, FSU is done.
It would have been better for Seton Hall to lose, but I guess we now have 2 teams that can theoretically fall out instead of one Providence is far from a lock...but both teams need to do some bad work to fall out.
jncuse
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Providence has it fairly easy coming in unfortunately. They are still in as of now (8-6 vs top 100), and it will be hard for them to really slip when 2 of the 3 last games are against St. John's and Depaul.
But I guess those games have to be played, so go St. John's/
But I guess those games have to be played, so go St. John's/
pearl31
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Yeah I think even 1-2 in that stretch, which is entirely possible, could spell trouble for them
jncuse
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A fairly uneventful day on the bubble with respect to us. Everything stays relatively static around us. Florida St was killed off which is good, but they were far out.
Nothing tomorrow, but a busy Saturday as normal. Just scanning some of the Saturday games, and it seems some teams just below or even with us that are in tough games
Butler at Georgetown
VCU at GW
Kentucky at Vanderbilt
Gonzaga at BYU
Florida at LSU (cheer for LSU in this one I think)
Nothing tomorrow, but a busy Saturday as normal. Just scanning some of the Saturday games, and it seems some teams just below or even with us that are in tough games
Butler at Georgetown
VCU at GW
Kentucky at Vanderbilt
Gonzaga at BYU
Florida at LSU (cheer for LSU in this one I think)
pearl31
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hmm, the Vcu/GW and Gonzaga/BYU games are intriguing to me - I mean, isn't there realistically a positive/negative with either outcome of both of those games? BYU is certainly a bubble possibility and one more "profile" win could propel them more... and with GW/VCU, on the surface it would seem safe to root for GW, but they're right there on the bubble too, and them losing wouldn't be a bad thing
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