Bubble Watch - Week of February 18 to 24 | Syracusefan.com

Bubble Watch - Week of February 18 to 24

jncuse

I brought the Cocaine to the White House
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Rankings based on the 39 brackets that were posted on Thursday (may update if other new brackets come in). Change from prior week included.

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So even though Syracuse went 0-2, it only went down 4%, and fell from #64 to #66. Part of it is thinning of the bubble, but I have a hard time fully explaining it.

Two teams moved in - Illinois St, Arkansas
Two teams moved out - Marquette, Tennessee

Biggest positive movers:
Arkansas +55% (2-0 - At LSU, At South Carolina)
Michigan +47% (2-0 - At Indiana, Home Wisconsin)
Clemson +20% (1-1 - Lost at Duke, Won vs Wake Forest)

Biggest negative movers
Rhode Island (46%) (0-2, Home vs Dayton, Home vs Fordham)
Marquette (39%) (0-1, Lost at Georgetown)
Indiana (36%) (0-2, Lost vs Michigan, Lost at Minnesota)
 
This Weekend's Schedule - I have shrank the bubble down to the last 8 in and the first 10 out (teams that have more than 5% on the matrix). Probabilities based on Sagarin.

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The interesting things with this weekend's schedule is that the teams on the outside are only favoured in 2 games. Most teams below the line have a chance at a real marquee win. But likely few will pull it off, so any team that does will really move up quickly.

Above the line, I am intrigued by the Kansas St vs Texas matchup. It's one of those road games that would be classified as a bad loss, but it is near a toss up.

And of course the Syracuse game is critical. Just win and everything else is irrelevant. We control our own destiny at this point.
 
Game Times Tomorrow

Friday
10:00 Cal at Stanford

Saturday
12:00 Clemson at Miami
12:30 Villanova at Seton Hall
1:00 Wake Forest at Duke
1:00 Missouri at Tennessee
2:00 Kansas St at Texas
2:00 Texas Tech at West Virginia
6:00 Kentucky at Georgia
6:00 SMU at Houston
6:00 Ole Miss at Arkansas
6:00 TCU at Iowa St
8:00 Xavier at Marquette

Sunday
3:30 Georgetown at Creighton
4:00 Loyola vs Illinois St
6:30 Syracuse at Georgia Tech
 
Nice start to the weekend with Cal losing, I could see 10 more helpful losses from the games you listed. I don't think it can be emphasized enough how much a win would help our NCAAT chances.
 
Last edited:
Every time I see this thread I think it says Bubbie Watch.
 
Five games (minimum) left. Go 3-2 and we should be in. Go 2-3 and it will be be iffy. Go 1-4 and good-by NCAA tournament. Which team will show up tomorrow?
 
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13 games today,I think we want to pull for 3/4 from these first 4 games:
1)Clemson over Miami to move them down

Need the better Tourney teams in BEast to win

2)Nova over Hall
3)Xavier over Marquette
4)Creighton over Georgetown

Need tourney teams to take care of the bubble:4/5
Would be great
5)Iowa state over TCU
6)Kentucky over Georgia
7)West Virginia over Texas Tech
8)SMU over Houston
9)Duke over Wake

Need these upsets: maybe one out of this group :
10) Loyola over Illinois state
11) Texas over Kansas state
12) Old miss over Arkansas
13) Missouri over Tennessee

What see how close we can get to 7 out of first nine and 8 out of the total 13
Best case scenario would be 10 out of 13
 
We want Miami to beaat Clemson.
Yeah. Clemson winning brings both Clemson and Miami back into competition with SU for a spot. Have to think 20plus just mixed the two up.
 
Yeah. Clemson winning brings both Clemson and Miami back into competition with SU for a spot. Have to think 20plus just mixed the two up.
I disagree on two counts

1) we beat Miami and If we beat Georgia Tech and Miami loses we pass them easily
2) if we lose then maybe we're better off having clemson lose too so they can't get any closer
 
Miami is in, barring a sudden collapse. Clemson is just barely on the outside looking in, with a decent non-con resume. Clemson could easily pass us in the committee's eyes with a couple of wins.
If Clemson were to win today and we were to lose tomorrow, it would be quite possible that they jump us, at least for now.
 
Miami is in, barring a sudden collapse. Clemson is just barely on the outside looking in, with a decent non-con resume. Clemson could easily pass us in the committee's eyes with a couple of wins.
If Clemson were to win today and we were to lose tomorrow, it would be quite possible that they jump us, at least for now.
Any team in that range is one or two games from being on the bubble
 
Yes. We want Miami to win. They are pretty safely in already, IMO. Would love to see the Wolverines and Sparty lose more.
 
I don't agree with rooting for Miami we also want to pass them in the conference standings!

If Miami finishes ahead of us that could push it to Tuesday instead of getting that bye we do not want Miami to win.

Though if you look at Miami's schedule with at Virginia Duke at Virginia tech at Florida State

You could argue that Tgey could be favored to lose all for these then it doesn't matter what they do today.

For anybody to say there safely in is comical!
 
Cal lost to Stanford tonight, not a horrible loss but not good either... think they'll still have to lose a few more to really worry though

Yes, the gap has stretched out a bit, so the teams above the last 4 in, probably have to go 0-2 before worrying.
 
Five games (minimum) left. Go 3-2 and we should be in. Go 2-3 and it will be be iffy. Go 1-4 and good-by NCAA tournament. Which team will show up tomorrow?

I think that's pretty reasonable
 
I do agree with the consensus of Miami over Clemson. We need teams under the bubble line to get hammered whenever they can.

That being said you can always find a positive result in both. If Miami then loses its next game it's getting very close to the line.
 
You root for Clemson to lose to Miami, then have Miami lose it's last 4 or at least go 1-3, and with the right results, SU is above both.

That is the ideal circumstance and a realistic chance of happening.
 

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