Bubble Watch - Week of February 18 to 24

[jncuse]

No time tonight to look at it the other way. Teams that are not on the bubble today, but are not locks either. If they lose out they could be in trouble.

Feel free to raise some teams that still need to "lock" it

 

[jncuse]

Now 40 new brackets today (a bit larger sample)

Michigan St 39
Seton Hall 39
Marquette 39
Cal 33
Syracuse 33
Providence 29
Illinois St 25
Kansas St 24
--- In/Out Line ---
TCU 15
Vanderbilt 15
Wake Forest 12
Georgia Tech 6
Rhode Island 4
Clemson 3
Houston 3
Illinois 3

 

[jdubs30]

Colorado lost last night. USC missed a big chance vs. Arizona. Unfortuantely OSU beat Wiscy pretty bad though. OSU still has a lot work to do , but this definitely helps them

 

[orangenirvana]

Agreed on Houston. We really needed UConn to pull it off last night. As much as the committee has disrespected the AAC in the past; they DID put Tulsa in last year for some reason (Unless it was just because OU's AD was the chair)

Yeah I didn't see Tulsa getting into the Tourney last year. I guess it was their four Top 50 wins.

But it goes to show there is still a lot of luck and randomness involved in this process. I just don't understand why they can't release their Top 100 every week leading up to the Tourney so everyone isn't blindsided by certain decisions.

Tulsa was in the bottom half of the combined RPI/Sagarin/KenPom/BPI ratings among bubble teams last year with not one ranking better than 58...

 

[orange79]

Palm update at 6AM Friday: Syracuse still the last team in, playing TCU (9 ACC teams in)

 

[Tom W.]

Don't see much on the schedule today in terms of bubble games. It would help us if Momouth keeps winning. The only bubble game to help us would be Oregon State over Cal. Which would be big, but not sure how much we can count on the Beavers, who are 1-15 in the PAC 12...

 

[Tom W.]

No time tonight to look at it the other way. Teams that are not on the bubble today, but are not locks either. If they lose out they could be in trouble.

Feel free to raise some teams that still need to "lock" it

I think USC is not quite a lock yet after three straight double digit losses. However, they played good teams and they have an easier schedule coming up. But, I still think they can't afford to continue to slide.

 

[NineOneSeven]

Don't see much on the schedule today in terms of bubble games. It would help us if Momouth keeps winning. The only bubble game to help us would be Oregon State over Cal. Which would be big, but not sure how much we can count on the Beavers, who are 1-15 in the PAC 12...

Oregon St was in the tournament last year and are 1-15 this year???

 

[Cuse House]

Palm update at 6AM Friday: Syracuse still the last team in, playing TCU (9 ACC teams in)

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Dixon haunts us wherever he is.

 

[Knicks411]

Yeah I didn't see Tulsa getting into the Tourney last year. I guess it was their four Top 50 wins.

But it goes to show there is still a lot of luck and randomness involved in this process. I just don't understand why they can't release their Top 100 every week leading up to the Tourney so everyone isn't blindsided by certain decisions.

Tulsa was in the bottom half of the combined RPI/Sagarin/KenPom/BPI ratings among bubble teams last year with not one ranking better than 58...

View attachment 90298

View attachment 90299

I think the top 100, or even really the entire field, is too much to ask every week. But I also think you're seeing a clear move toward more transparency in the process. This year it was the top 16 once, I bet that becomes more frequent in the coming years.

 

[jncuse]

Don't see much on the schedule today in terms of bubble games. It would help us if Momouth keeps winning. The only bubble game to help us would be Oregon State over Cal. Which would be big, but not sure how much we can count on the Beavers, who are 1-15 in the PAC 12...

Friday is always a dead day. The odd P12 game but that is it in terms of P5 schools.

 

[orangenirvana]

Palm update at 6AM Friday: Syracuse still the last team in, playing TCU (9 ACC teams in)

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If I were a paranoid SU fan, I would think Palm was trolling us by calling SU the last team out and having Boeheim face Jamie Dixon in a play-in game. There's not a worse scenario imaginable.

 

[AZOrange]

Palm update at 6AM Friday: Syracuse still the last team in, playing TCU (9 ACC teams in)

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I think there's zero chance this is really where we are at this point (although no way to prove that). I get the sense we have a little media darling asterisk next to us right now. This has been a strange year

 

[jncuse]

Yeah I didn't see Tulsa getting into the Tourney last year. I guess it was their four Top 50 wins.

But it goes to show there is still a lot of luck and randomness involved in this process. I just don't understand why they can't release their Top 100 every week leading up to the Tourney so everyone isn't blindsided by certain decisions.

Tulsa was in the bottom half of the combined RPI/Sagarin/KenPom/BPI ratings among bubble teams last year with not one ranking better than 58...

View attachment 90298

View attachment 90299

Nirvana - I would like you try to keep that above post and list handy. It will be interesting to see how well the analytical rankings tie into the # of teams getting seeds this year vs last... to see if there is noticeably more acceptance of the invididual rankings this year,

And if you can drop the RPI from it totally it might be even more helpful. They have lost total faith in the RPI as a team ranking in my view.

There has to be some smart people on the committee and there had to be enough to finally get it.

 

[jncuse]

If I were a paranoid SU fan, I would think Palm was trolling us by calling SU the last team out and having Boeheim face Jamie Dixon in a play-in game. There's not a worse scenario imaginable.

We would have to play either Kansas St or TCU, since those teams can't play each other.

 

[jncuse]

I think there's zero chance this is really where we are at this point (although no way to prove that). I get the sense we have a little media darling asterisk next to us right now. This has been a strange year

Do you mean that in a positive or negative way. I assume you mean the bias is against us by all non-SU scribes which have issues because there are so many other SU based media.

 

[jncuse]

Thank you all for the contributions to this thread this week. I will be closing this one out and starting a new thread shortly.

 

[orange79]

Do you mean that in a positive or negative way. I assume you mean the bias is against us by all non-SU scribes which have issues because there are so many other SU based media.

I read it as we have had so many buzzer-beaters, we are a media darling, so he meant it in a positive way. :noidea:

 

[jncuse]

I read it as we have had so many buzzer-beaters, we are a media darling, so he meant it in a positive way. :noidea:

After we were the Power Conference School picked on last year for getting in (instead of Vandy or Michigan) I was just not sure. It can really go both ways. We are a fun team, but we aren't always popular either. (media factors, coach factors)

 

[AZOrange]

I read it as we have had so many buzzer-beaters, we are a media darling, so he meant it in a positive way. :noidea:

Yep

 

[Tom W.]

Dayton down 7 with 10 to go. Dayton still solid in the tourney, but a loss wouldn't hurt our cause. Cal in a game with Oregon State as well. Would be a bad loss for them. Lots of time though.