Cal opens -6.5 over Cuse…

[690West]

They get one extra day and we fly 3,000 miles. Game on.

 

[Frozen]

The fact that this is the third consecutive Thom Brenneman game means we all lose. And it might be the third of four straight Thom games.

 

[690West]

Up to -7.5. Early money using a Calgorithm

 

[SouthernCuse]

Wow, that's the worst opening line in 4 games we have been a dog in all. Tired of that and surprised. Lot of respect for Cal at home.

 

[TexanMark]

Wow, that's the worst opening line in 4 games we have been a dog in all. Tired of that and surprised. Lot of respect for Cal at home.

Cal is better than their record

 

[007]

Wow, that's the worst opening line in 4 games we have been a dog in all. Tired of that and surprised. Lot of respect for Cal at home.

With regards to the opening line, "respect" has very little to do with how Vegas sets the numbers. The betting public is a different matter.

 

[Giants1973]

Wow

 

[OrangeTarheel]

Cal seems to have a good running game. That alone, when matched up with the state of our d line, does not look great for us

 

[qdawgg]

I’ve said this numerous times about this game. The W/L of teams traveling from the west coast —> East or vice versa to play. The traveling team loses at about a 90% rate. I’m being conservative b/c a few weeks ago only one team had won in all of these games. Not saying we lose but the %’s are against and that’s before the game is played.

 

[djorange1989]

I’ve said this numerous times about this game. The W/L of teams traveling from the west coast —> East or vice versa to play. The traveling team loses at about a 90% rate. I’m being conservative b/c a few weeks ago only one team had won in all of these games. Not saying we lose but the %’s are against and that’s before the game is played.

We have one win doing it this year. So, I guess glass half full says we can do it again and glass half empty says the percentages very much say we won’t

 

[Arangeman]

I’ve said this numerous times about this game. The W/L of teams traveling from the west coast —> East or vice versa to play. The traveling team loses at about a 90% rate. I’m being conservative b/c a few weeks ago only one team had won in all of these games. Not saying we lose but the %’s are against and that’s before the game is played.

Only one? We beat UNLV, Stanford beat us, Cal beat Auburn. That’s doing nothing but looking at Cuse and Cal.

 

[ottodaorange]

Cal seems to have a good running game. That alone, when matched up with the state of our d line, does not look great for us

I agree the defensive line needs to improve. However, I also believe the offensive line needs to be replaced!

 

[OttosShoes]

Well, they don't set the "odds" based on the actual odds, they set them based on how people bet. The perception of the odds.

Lots of people think the east coast/west coast thing matters a lot, and so lots of people will bet Cal at home. They need to make that bet less lucrative and the opposite more lucrative to balance it and mitigate risk.

Now, does the east coast/west coast thing actually matter? Not sure. I could see where the perception gets in player's heads. But as someone that flys a lot for work, I don't think it's a big deal. To go to Nor Cal you sit down and watch two movies and the clock shifts backward 3 hours. Hawaii or Japan or UK? Yeah that messes with you. West Coast, not so much.

 

[Arangeman]

Well, they don't set the "odds" based on the actual odds, they set them based on how people bet. The perception of the odds.

Lots of people think the east coast/west coast thing matters a lot, and so lots of people will bet Cal at home. They need to make that bet less lucrative and the opposite more lucrative to balance it and mitigate risk.

Now, does the east coast/west coast thing actually matter? Not sure. I could see where the perception gets in player's heads. But as someone that flys a lot for work, I don't think it's a big deal. To go to Nor Cal you sit down and watch two movies and the clock shifts backward 3 hours. Hawaii or Japan or UK? Yeah that messes with you. West Coast, not so much.

Teams to travel from EST in their previous game to a road game in PST are 9-6-1 ATS this season. 7-1-1 outside the big 10.

 

[qdawgg]

Only one? We beat UNLV, Stanford beat us, Cal beat Auburn. That’s doing nothing but looking at Cuse and Cal.

I’m not actually sure what the entirety of this message means, except you’re kind of making my point with limited games in your argument. Also, I’d have to check my map but I don’t believe UNLV is on the west coast.

 

[qdawgg]

Teams to travel from EST in their previous game to a road game in PST are 9-6-1 ATS this season. 7-1-1 outside the big 10.

That’s not accurate but if you can link the articles that show that, please do.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5867880/2024/10/24/big-ten-football-scheduling-travel/

Are Big Ten’s new West Coast teams at a disadvantage when traveling east?

A look at how teams perform when traveling across the country in the coast-to-coast Big Ten

www.mlive.com

As UW showed Michigan, Big Ten travel demands are taking hold | Analysis

After weeks of non-conference matchups at home, the Big Ten season has ramped up, as have cross-country trips. You’ll never guess how those results are playing out.

www.seattletimes.com

* “Teams traveling at least two time zones for conference matchups are 1-8 thus far, and the lone win — Indiana over UCLA in the Rose Bowl — carries a significant caveat: The Hoosiers were coming off a Friday game, at home, against Western Illinois. (They had an extra day to prepare and a cupcake to eat.)”
—> this stat was from a month ago, which is the article I originally saw. A little longer ago than I thought. The stats improved but not significantly enough to show that traveling two times zones in either direction has a significant impact on the results.

 

[690West]

I think the disconnect is one poster is showing ATS where the other is showing straight up? Not sure

qdawgg
Arangeman

 

[Arangeman]

I’m not actually sure what the entirety of this message means, except you’re kind of making my point with limited games in your argument. Also, I’d have to check my map but I don’t believe UNLV is on the west coast.

You said it’s only happened once as of “a few weeks ago.”

I gave you 3 examples of it happening. Also PSU won at USC. UCLA won at Gers. Etc. Is Rutgers too far from the water to count?

 

[Arangeman]

That’s not accurate but if you can link the articles that show that, please do.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5867880/2024/10/24/big-ten-football-scheduling-travel/

Are Big Ten’s new West Coast teams at a disadvantage when traveling east?

A look at how teams perform when traveling across the country in the coast-to-coast Big Ten

www.mlive.com

As UW showed Michigan, Big Ten travel demands are taking hold | Analysis

After weeks of non-conference matchups at home, the Big Ten season has ramped up, as have cross-country trips. You’ll never guess how those results are playing out.

www.seattletimes.com

* “Teams traveling at least two time zones for conference matchups are 1-8 thus far, and the lone win — Indiana over UCLA in the Rose Bowl — carries a significant caveat: The Hoosiers were coming off a Friday game, at home, against Western Illinois. (They had an extra day to prepare and a cupcake to eat.)”
—> this stat was from a month ago, which is the article I originally saw. A little longer ago than I thought. The stats improved but not significantly enough to show that traveling two times zones in either direction has a significant impact on the results.

2024 College Football Week 11 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer

Evan Abrams gets you ready for College Football Week 11 with betting trends, stats, and notes for key games.

www.actionnetwork.com

it is accurate. I quoted this article.

 

[OttosShoes]

I think the disconnect is one poster is showing ATS where the other is showing straight up? Not sure

qdawgg
Arangeman

Yeah, the ATS is pretty clear evidence the betting odds aren't the actual odds, at least so far.

The 1-8 thing is interesting but it must be out of date or something. For 3 time zones, we beat UNLV, PSU beat USC, Indiana beat UCLA, UCLA beat Rutgers. For 2 time zones, Minnesota beat UCLA and UCLA beat Nebraska. And that's just what I found in like, 2 minutes.

Let's get a win in Berkeley. And also let's not let their students throw stuff at us. That was gross.

 

[Arangeman]

I think the disconnect is one poster is showing ATS where the other is showing straight up? Not sure

qdawgg
Arangeman

It’s a point spread thead?

 

[690West]

It’s a point spread thead?

Yes sir.

 

[qdawgg]

You said it’s only happened once as of “a few weeks ago.”

I gave you 3 examples of it happening. Also PSU won at USC. UCLA won at Gers. Etc. Is Rutgers too far from the water to count?

Two times zones. I linked 3 articles. If you want to dispute those, go wild, sir.

 

[Arangeman]

Two times zones. I linked 3 articles. If you want to dispute those, go wild, sir.

so you are including 2 time zone data? I honestly have no idea what you are trying to say at this point.

A lot more than one West-East vice/versa travel team has won. The majority have covered. Action is a pretty reliable gambling site. Ok to say you are misinformed.

 

[qdawgg]

so you are including 2 time zone data? I honestly have no idea what you are trying to say at this point.

A lot more than one West-East vice/versa travel team has won. The majority have covered. Action is a pretty reliable gambling site. Ok to say you are misinformed.

Let’s try this again…… read the articles with the information. This isn’t actually complicated. But if you don’t take your finger, click on the link, then actively read the articles. I could see why maybe all of this is confusing. And if that’s the case, you probably shouldn’t be commenting in the first place. All 3 articles discuss the information.

Last point. Syracuse is the only team I care about. They will be traveling two time zones to play a game. The discussion is about teams traveling two zones this year and their record.

Even if you had read the 1 SENTENCE I quoted from one of the three articles all of this wouldn’t be confusing.