Chances of winning 5 in a row?

[moqui]

 

[pearl31]

FWIW, I heard on Brent Axe today that we were in Lunardi's Bracketology. I think he said we were one of the last four in which means play-in. Not really seeing it but it is a ray of hope.

not trying to disrespect you individually, but...
can't believe how many times year after year it has to be hammered into people's heads that: the field of 68 has to be filled out, that a team's resume is only as good/bad as all the other teams against which it is being compared, there are a whole lot of middling "bubble" teams out there

 

[Dinkyspond]

For some of us older fans, it's absolutely depressing that it's Pitt's home court that's known as "the Zoo" now.

I remember watching Saturday ECAC games with Marv Albert and Bucky Waters and the intro to the games would have Marv and Bucky sitting in the stands with fans and on cue Marv would say "Manley Zoo" and then the fans would go so wild that Marv and Bucky would almost get knocked over in the seats.

 

[grant]

Hard to predict the outcomes in conference play. That being said, we have been awful so far in conference play and it would be easy to write this team off for the next 5 games (maybe even the rest of conference).. I am hoping we at least win against GA Tech (not because I am going to that game or anything like that)

 

[NineOneSeven]

3.125% with a lot of assumptions built in

 

[TinyManInside]

I say 40% of winning all 5. just a feeling and then UVA back at home. 3-2 is a must but I'm not all that surprised with 4-1 or 5-0. THe latter 2 give us the drivers seat of the Tourney. And we should have a solid punchers shot to beat UVA at home based on the game this week on the road.

1. @FSU
2. Pitt
3. BC
4. @Pitt
5. @Ga Tech

6. UVA

You realize that if you assign an 84% chance of winning each game, you get a 40% of winning all 5, right?

I think we're going to go 4-1, to be honest.

 

[hungrychuck]

I remember watching Saturday ECAC games with Marv Albert and Bucky Waters and the intro to the games would have Marv and Bucky sitting in the stands with fans and on cue Marv would say "Manley Zoo" and then the fans would go so wild that Marv and Bucky would almost get knocked over in the seats.

And I remember Jake Crouthamel's open letter to the Zoo via the Daily Orange imploring students to please clean up their act because swearing is not allowed in this establishment and yada yada yada.

 

[TinyManInside]

View attachment 119384

Probabilities are based on Sagarin. Based on those we have a 9.5% chance of going on a 5 game winning streak.

The math is not always the way to evaluate these things (momentum, matchups are also important things that are not in those calculations), but the 10% seems pretty reasonable to me. A longshot, but not totally out of the question either.

Yup, that shakes out to 9.5%. Seems about right.

 

[HSPORANGE]

That's about as easy of a 5 game stretch you'll see in the ACC.

I think we win 4 but have a shot at winning all 5

 

[cuseattle]

I was allowed to take a stats and probability class in lieu of precalc to fulfill my math requirement.

 

[hungrychuck]

That's about as easy of a 5 game stretch you'll see in the ACC.

I think we win 4 but have a shot at winning all 5

I'd say it's a tough road game followed by an easy 4-game stretch for a team that has no easy games.

 

[raf4488]

The goal should be 4 out of 5. If we can do that we'll be 5-4 with a huge opportunity for a big win vs. Virginia on our home floor.

 

[CusefanATL]

I'd say it's a tough road game followed by an easy 4-game stretch for a team that has no easy games.

I think the point is in a 5 game ACC stretch there is always going to be a "tough" road game. @fsu is not duke, unc, uva, louisville. Its as easy as a "tough road game" as youll ever find in the acc.

THat being said, there certainly are no easy games for cuse.

 

[Newhouser]

The goal should be 4 out of 5. If we can do that we'll be 5-4 with a huge opportunity for a big win vs. Virginia on our home floor.

I agree - we need to be 5-4 after Tech and dog fight for 4 more wins.

 

[Cuseregular]

View attachment 119390

 

[OrangeMon]

Mentalo says...zero point zero chance.

 

[CuseFaninVT]

View attachment 119384

Probabilities are based on Sagarin. Based on those we have a 9.5% chance of going on a 5 game winning streak.

The math is not always the way to evaluate these things (momentum, matchups are also important things that are not in those calculations), but the 10% seems pretty reasonable to me. A longshot, but not totally out of the question either.

I had it as a tossup between slim and none, so seems like your post is supporting the slim choice. I'll stick with slim, final answer.

 

[Orange2389]

I say 40% of winning all 5. just a feeling and then UVA back at home. 3-2 is a must but I'm not all that surprised with 4-1 or 5-0. THe latter 2 give us the drivers seat of the Tourney. And we should have a solid punchers shot to beat UVA at home based on the game this week on the road.

1. @FSU
2. Pitt
3. BC
4. @Pitt
5. @Ga Tech

6. UVA

we lose to FSU and Ga Tech is a toss up

 

[Tony DeFranco]

5 in a row??? The worse team we have played in the last 10 years was ND - they were God awful - and we managed to lose

 

[OrangeDW]

I think we win 3 of 5.

We lost to Wake and a horrid ND team- based on who was actually on the court.

I don’t see us beating FSU away. And given our lack of scoring, I fear we will lose an ugly game on the road to either Pitt or GT. Which would really be too bad because both those teams suck.

A normal SU team would win all 4 of those without much doubt, and would have a solid chance to knock off FSU. This isn’t a normal SU team. I see very little chance at 5-0. Hope I’m wrong.

 

[pearl31]

we lose to FSU and Ga Tech is a toss up

exactly this

 

[MSOrange]

I think we win 3 of 5.

We lost to Wake and a horrid ND team- based on who was actually on the court.

I don’t see us beating FSU away. And given our lack of scoring, I fear we will lose an ugly game on the road to either Pitt or GT. Which would really be too bad because both those teams suck.

A normal SU team would win all 4 of those without much doubt, and would have a solid chance to knock off FSU. This isn’t a normal SU team. I see very little chance at 5-0. Hope I’m wrong.

I think 3 also but I'm more wondering about BC than Pitt or GA Tech. Does BC have much this year? I haven't seen them.

 

[OrangeDW]

I think 3 also but I'm more wondering about BC than Pitt or GA Tech. Does BC have much this year? I haven't seen them.

Really not sure. Saw they played Virginia tough and beat Duke. Just lost to UNC by 30. Not really sure what to make of them. I’d like to think we could beat them at home at least.

 

[realorange]

Really not sure. Saw they played Virginia tough and beat Duke. Just lost to UNC by 30. Not really sure what to make of them. I’d like to think we could beat them at home at least.

Like last year I guess.
They have players who hustle and are decent shooters. The game I saw, I thought they were as good as Wake.

 

[pearl31]

Really not sure. Saw they played Virginia tough and beat Duke. Just lost to UNC by 30. Not really sure what to make of them. I’d like to think we could beat them at home at least.

They have two of the better guards in the league in Bowman/Robinson and actually play a 3rd guard now all the team as well, Chatman, who can shoot the he11 out of the ball - but they play horrible defense and like a different team on the road