Conference expansion tidbit

[IthacaMatt]

East Carolina and Davidson are then apparently in.

Unlike the Big East, the ACC doesn't need to go to 120 schools to have enough name brands to get a TV contract.

 

[IthacaMatt]

The ACC gains nothing by adding Rutgers or Uconn. There is no gain at all. They will wait for a big fish or stay at 14. The only way that Rutgers or UConn get invited is to fill in for a team that gets poached and i just dont see that. The fit has to be academic first. ND makes sense they are a good fit with SU, BC, Duke, and have played many of the other ACC teams. Still i really doubt that ND makes the move as they dont need to. They will continue to keep their other sports in the Big Sun Beast and reap the benefits of being Independent in Football.

I think ND is going to start incurring even greater travel expenses for their non-revenue sports because of the expanse of the Big East. Now, granted they aren't very close to most ACC schools either, but if there is a move down the road, putting ND and Penn State into the ACC makes the best east coast conference you could put together.

 

[IthacaMatt]

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"Expansion is about markets"


I really doubt if someone spoke to ACC insiders in 2010 that they would have had a crystal ball forseeing what happened.


If one looks at the recent ACC expansion, while many motives were in play, Pitt at that time was supposed to have been approached by the Big 12 as an expansion candidate. The ACC moved for many reasons but one may well have been that the Big 12 forced the issue.


By 2016, the Big 10 TV contract is up for negotiation. Meanwhile the PAC 12 is creating their own TV channel. When a conference owns it's own channel, perspectives can change and strengthening the reach of their channel can help provide greater leverage in their bargaining over TV rights and coverage.


By 2016, what if the Big 10 decides to expand it's footprint to the northeast, and preempt the ACC by offering RU and UConn?

These are the 2 major state schools in the NJ/New England regions and with PSU could challenge the ACC for these markets. That would give the Big 10 14 schools.



What would the ACC do? Do they really want to allow the Big 10 to create a strong northeast presence? Would RU and UConn go with a possible Big 10 offer with all the financial benefits along with the CIC research benefits or would they consider an ACC offer to join with regional teams like SU, BC and Pitt?


Additional expansion may be over for the next few years, but in 2016 it could easily move into the next stage.


As far as ND, they may or may not decide to join an all-sports conference at some point, but probably only as a very last option. If the Big 10 were to actually offer RU and UConn, if UL joined the Big 12, would ND change it's view of the benefits of remaining with the new Big East?


Please note: the above are not predictions; just possibilities.

I agree that expansion is about markets, but we've also seen that it's more about brands. And the Big 10 adding UConn and Rutgers isn't going to get any more eyeballs on the football product than they already get. If the Big 10 were to move for UConn and Rutgers, if I were the ACC I would let them go.

I certainly wouldn't get into a bidding war or make a panic move because of Rutgers. UConn, p0st-Calhoun, could turn into UMass as far as basketball goes. Their facilities aren't that great for hoops. Gampel isn't that great as a home court. Those 2 teams moving to the Big 10 and then being cellar dwellers would be great for SU; maybe not as great as both of them being stuck in the New New New Big East for 10 years, but still I prefer not to have them in our league going forward.

 

[irishredhomebrew]

What r u saying here??? ND bing 1, "not likely"...what does that mean if UCONN and Rutgirls a no go...help me understand.

The football schools (FSU, Clemson, etc) are upset about the football product from the recent expansion. That is not a knock against the teams from Syracuse and Pitt, but more so a recognition about lack of rabid support from the fanbase. The ACC had four teams with average attendance below 40,000 in 2010, placing them at the bottom portion of BCS teams. Conversely, they only had a few teams above 60k (Clemson, FSU, VT). The provided link correctly points out that many of the lowest drawing teams are from the BIG EAST and ACC. The football schools want to see the last 2 slots go to teams that will elevate the passion/rivalries between teams and fans.

ACC attendance

Compare that to the situation in the SEC. Alabama pulls around 90k, S. Car. around 82k, Tenn pulls around 90k, Georgia pulls upper 80's I think. Florida is above 80k easily. Even the middle-of-the-pack teams pull above 60k, with the exception of Vandy (which is in the lower regions with Wake and BC).

As for new markets, that may be important if you are starting your own cable network (which I think is the way the SEC is trying to go with its new additions). However, its the product that people tune into more so than the demographic area. FSU is a national draw, as is Miami when they are winning. Clemson is a strong regional draw. VT probably falls somewhere in the middle.

I know that Clemson expressed its concerns with a future expansion of Rutgers/UCONN because they strongly oppose to going to 16 with lower drawing teams. The hope is Notre Dame paired with either a Rutgers or UCONN, with the dream being ND and Penn St. Another possibility is Louisville because they have a decent following.

Finally, a major negative that is a byproduct of expansion is that OOC marquee games are going to go away for Clemson and FSU. Each of theses schools have a rivalry with an SEC team (SC and FU) that they play annually. With 9 conference games plus the rivalry SEC game, that leaves each team with only 2 OOC games. These games were usually split between a home cupcake game and a tough, home-and-home series with a national name. Clemson was slated to play a series with UGA, but that is most likely going to be cancelled now because of the requirement to go to UGA means that there would only be 6 home games that year (remember the home-and-away rivalry game for FSU and CU) The hit to the AD for the missing home game will probably mean that those home and away games with a marquee team will disappear so that another home cupcake can be scheduled (for example, Clemson will pull upper 60s in attendance when they play division 2 teams like Wofford, money that would be missing if the team plays home and aways under the 9-conference game schedule).

With all of that said, this means that the football schools are very concerned that the last 2 slots not be taken by teams that have minimal following/interest. Right or wrong, it is often viewed that we are going to give up a series with a heated rival (UGA) that is located less than 2 hours away with gameday attendances over 80k to play teams that are hundreds of miles away and will struggle to fill their stadiums.

Hope that sheds some light on the reluctance of some schools to have UCONN or Rutgers finish the expansion.

 

[SU2NASA]

[quote="sufan, post: 225554, member:
By 2016, what if the Big 10 decides to expand it's footprint to the northeast, and preempt the ACC by offering RU and UConn?.

The Big Ten is currently making ~$22 million per year per school. By the time 2016 rolls around, this could be in the area of ~$30 million. This means that adding UConn and Rutgers is going to have to add at least $44 million total, or likely in the $60 million area, just for the Big Ten to break even. Not a chance.

From everything I've heard from people in the know (which take with a grain of salt), is that the Big Ten looked at about 6 schools (which should be no mystery), and decided that adding Nebraska as a national "brand" was better than trying to expand into the NY market with schools that likely couldn't deliver it. The Big Ten is banking on expanding its footprint through national brands, which they're comfortable with what they have from what I've heard.

As long as the Big Ten and Pac-12 stay at 12, there's no reason for the Big 12 to go past that number, and no reason for the SEC and ACC to go past 14.

UConn and Rutgers are screwed.