Conference machinations

[SWC75]

The Athletic has a Q&A page about the factors that influence decisions about conferences and divisions:

Transfer portal winners and losers in Group of 5, realignment updates, North Dakota State’s future and more: G5 mailbag

Answer your Group of 5 college football questions about the transfer portal, realignment, North Dakota State's FBS potential and more.

theathletic.com

The one about North Dakota State especially interested me:

Does NDSU make the jump to FBS over the next five years, and if so, which Group of 5 conference do they join? Assuming an expanded playoff happens sooner rather than later and they don’t garner interest from any P5 conferences (although I think they could win the Pac-12 next year if they were in the conference). — Scott C.

NDSU might be in the most precarious spot for conference realignment. The Bison already dominate FCS to the point where it’s almost boring, and now their top challengers are leaving for the FBS. It seems natural that they should just move up as well.

But the first thing about moving up to FBS from FCS is that a school needs to be invited to a conference, unless it’s Liberty and overflowing with cash. JMU, Sam Houston and Jacksonville State all got invitations. One issue is there isn’t a natural fit for NDSU among the G5 conferences. The MAC is probably the closest, but that’s adding a lot of travel to MAC schools that don’t have a lot of money. The Mountain West is already an airplane league, but it would add even more travel, especially for schools in California. The MWC chose not to add anybody in this past round of realignment in large part because its TV partners said they wouldn’t give the league any more money for expanding. And that’s the other issue for NDSU. The Bison likely don’t bring enough eyeballs to make an impact on TV deals.

NDSU athletic director Matt Larsen said last summer that the Bison were “well-positioned” if an FBS call was to come. NDSU moved up to Division II from Division I in 2004. That wasn’t long ago. The school, program and athletic department continue to grow.

Becoming an FBS independent like Liberty has been doesn’t feel like a smart move from a financial standpoint for NDSU, and the number of FBS independents is about to drop with Liberty and New Mexico State going to Conference USA. I don’t really know what NDSU should do, and I don’t really know if there’s anything it can do.

They may just continue to rack up championships in a division that is already uncompetitive into perpetuity. Maybe FCS will cease to exist and become part of FBS, as it was before Division 1AA was created in 1978. The purpose of that division was to give Division 1 schools who had no shot at the D-1 championship a championship they could win and stay in Division 1. What they really need to do is merge the Group of 5 schools with FCS, (from where most of them came), and make the Power 5 a division unto itself. But of course they won't do that. Logic never prevails.

Jim Boeheim, on his show last night, said that if the top group of football schools does break away from the NCAA, they'll need to bring about 100 schools with them "for scheduling purposes". he thinks SU is good enough in football and basketball to be included.

 

[CousCuse]

The Athletic has a Q&A page about the factors that influence decisions about conferences and divisions:

Transfer portal winners and losers in Group of 5, realignment updates, North Dakota State’s future and more: G5 mailbag

Answer your Group of 5 college football questions about the transfer portal, realignment, North Dakota State's FBS potential and more.

theathletic.com

The one about North Dakota State especially interested me:

Does NDSU make the jump to FBS over the next five years, and if so, which Group of 5 conference do they join? Assuming an expanded playoff happens sooner rather than later and they don’t garner interest from any P5 conferences (although I think they could win the Pac-12 next year if they were in the conference). — Scott C.

NDSU might be in the most precarious spot for conference realignment. The Bison already dominate FCS to the point where it’s almost boring, and now their top challengers are leaving for the FBS. It seems natural that they should just move up as well.

But the first thing about moving up to FBS from FCS is that a school needs to be invited to a conference, unless it’s Liberty and overflowing with cash. JMU, Sam Houston and Jacksonville State all got invitations. One issue is there isn’t a natural fit for NDSU among the G5 conferences. The MAC is probably the closest, but that’s adding a lot of travel to MAC schools that don’t have a lot of money. The Mountain West is already an airplane league, but it would add even more travel, especially for schools in California. The MWC chose not to add anybody in this past round of realignment in large part because its TV partners said they wouldn’t give the league any more money for expanding. And that’s the other issue for NDSU. The Bison likely don’t bring enough eyeballs to make an impact on TV deals.

NDSU athletic director Matt Larsen said last summer that the Bison were “well-positioned” if an FBS call was to come. NDSU moved up to Division II from Division I in 2004. That wasn’t long ago. The school, program and athletic department continue to grow.

Becoming an FBS independent like Liberty has been doesn’t feel like a smart move from a financial standpoint for NDSU, and the number of FBS independents is about to drop with Liberty and New Mexico State going to Conference USA. I don’t really know what NDSU should do, and I don’t really know if there’s anything it can do.

They may just continue to rack up championships in a division that is already uncompetitive into perpetuity. Maybe FCS will cease to exist and become part of FBS, as it was before Division 1AA was created in 1978. The purpose of that division was to give Division 1 schools who had no shot at the D-1 championship a championship they could win and stay in Division 1. What they really need to do is merge the Group of 5 schools with FCS, (from where most of them came), and make the Power 5 a division unto itself. But of course they won't do that. Logic never prevails.

Jim Boeheim, on his show last night, said that if the top group of football schools does break away from the NCAA, they'll need to bring about 100 schools with them "for scheduling purposes". he thinks SU is good enough in football and basketball to be included.

I have read that Gonzaga may join the MWC due to BYU leaving for the Big12. I thought they talked to NDSU in the past about membership a well.

 

[TexanMark]

I have read that Gonzaga may join the MWC due to BYU leaving for the Big12. I thought they talked to NDSU in the past about membership a well.

The MWC makes the most sense to me.

Another thought is the WAC builds a northern tier with the some Big Sky or Summit schools.

 

[CousCuse]

The MWC makes the most sense to me.

Another thought is the WAC builds a northern tier with the some Big Sky or Summit schools.

Maybe Montana. Montana is becoming a very rich peoples state.

 

[TexanMark]

Maybe Montana. Montana is becoming a very rich peoples state.

I heard their players who leave the program even get a free ride to the train station.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

MWC seems like the best fit. If they went to 16 teams they can have a more location friendly pod for North Dakota State. They can add one of the Montana schools, one of the South Dakota schools, and then either Eastern Washington or a Texas school.

As for JB, why would they need about 100? Part of the reason to leave is $. TV is going to want strong inter sectional matchups. P5 at 16 teams each easily achieves that without adding fat. That would be 80 schools. There is no reason in FB to go beyond that.

BBall maybe you can invite the Big East and have them go to the same amount of teams but it isn't needed. Depending on who makes the P5, you could potential have every Champ since the NCAAT went to 64 teams in 1985, except Villanova. Are we really going to invite the entire Big East just for them?

 

[HtownOrange]

MWC seems like the best fit. If they went to 16 teams they can have a more location friendly pod for North Dakota State. They can add one of the Montana schools, one of the South Dakota schools, and then either Eastern Washington or a Texas school.

As for JB, why would they need about 100? Part of the reason to leave is $. TV is going to want strong inter sectional matchups. P5 at 16 teams each easily achieves that without adding fat. That would be 80 schools. There is no reason in FB to go beyond that.

BBall maybe you can invite the Big East and have them go to the same amount of teams but it isn't needed. Depending on who makes the P5, you could potential have every Champ since the NCAAT went to 64 teams in 1985, except Villanova. Are we really going to invite the entire Big East just for them?

While I agree with your sentiment, there still needs to be canon fodder. Currently, one FCS game and one or two G5 games
fill out a P5 schedule. If you take away the FCS and G5 pool, you force big name brands to play more P5 games. That will only happen with additional canon fodder (bottom feeders, body bags, Rutgers,...)

Besides, JB is right, you need more schools to justify a good Hoops tourney, too. Presently, you have a 69 team field, about 20% of D1, teams. Scale that down to 80 and you only have 16 teams. Too much money is made off the hoops tourney to not keep some value. And don't forget, the NCAA gets half of the hoops tourney money, they will not decrease their share or take to benefit a few teams.

 

[SWC75]

It would be fun to see Penn State or Oklahoma go 3-9 because they are playing a powerhouse every week, just because the powerhouses wanted to hoard all the money.

They need the rest of us.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

While I agree with your sentiment, there still needs to be canon fodder. Currently, one FCS game and one or two G5 games
fill out a P5 schedule. If you take away the FCS and G5 pool, you force big name brands to play more P5 games. That will only happen with additional canon fodder (bottom feeders, body bags, Rutgers,...)

Besides, JB is right, you need more schools to justify a good Hoops tourney, too. Presently, you have a 69 team field, about 20% of D1, teams. Scale that down to 80 and you only have 16 teams. Too much money is made off the hoops tourney to not keep some value. And don't forget, the NCAA gets half of the hoops tourney money, they will not decrease their share or take to benefit a few teams.

IMO if there is a break away it is for FB only. The schools aren't walking away from the NCAAT credits on the table. That being said the NBA seems to do fine with a smaller tournament. If there were a 52 out of 80 available teams making the BBall tourney, it would be fine. In 1984 there were only 53 teams so it isn't crazy. You can keep the first 4, then have seeds 5-12 play, then your round of 32.

If there were a split IMO you see 10 conference games in FB. Look at the SEC now, they are fine playing 9 conference games with only Vandy as canon fodder. As to OOC, we are talking P5 x 16. So that means 11 more G5 teams are needed, most of which is cannon fodder.

Even if there isn't a split, IMO FCS games will be phased out within the next few seasons and teams will play at least 10 P5 games each (combo of conf and OOC). That leaves only 2 G5 OOC games at max.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

It would be fun to see Penn State or Oklahoma go 3-9 because they are playing a powerhouse every week, just because the powerhouses wanted to hoard all the money.

They need the rest of us.

Oklahoma will pretty much have that once they join the SEC. 9 conference games and Okie State every year.

 

[HtownOrange]

IMO if there is a break away it is for FB only. The schools aren't walking away from the NCAAT credits on the table. That being said the NBA seems to do fine with a smaller tournament. If there were a 52 out of 80 available teams making the BBall tourney, it would be fine. In 1984 there were only 53 teams so it isn't crazy. You can keep the first 4, then have seeds 5-12 play, then your round of 32.

If there were a split IMO you see 10 conference games in FB. Look at the SEC now, they are fine playing 9 conference games with only Vandy as canon fodder. As to OOC, we are talking P5 x 16. So that means 11 more G5 teams are needed, most of which is cannon fodder.

Even if there isn't a split, IMO FCS games will be phased out within the next few seasons and teams will play at least 10 P5 games each (combo of conf and OOC). That leaves only 2 G5 OOC games at max.

I doubt a split will be football only. The money differences are too great for top level athletic programs to not want a bigger piece of the pie. They will add whatever teams are necessary to ensure top dollar and full coverage nationwide. Otherwise the SEC would already have split to form its own league. The SEC can't because college sports are driven primarily based on regional interest.

Regarding the hoops tourney, as long as the NCAA has control and half the revenue, the P5 have to play by NCAA rules. If there are sufficient teams, the top conferences can completely break from the NCAA, set up their own tourneys, create their own academic standards and enforcement,, etc., and keep all the money. Your suggestion of some hoops only schools is possible and would make Olympic sports easier to manage, too. It would also keep a lot of regional flavor in hoops, baseball, hockey, lacrosse, etc. in play.

Football may drive the bus but there is far more money out there for live sports programming than ESPN lets on.

Anyway, it is fun to speculate.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

I doubt a split will be football only. The money differences are too great for top level athletic programs to not want a bigger piece of the pie. They will add whatever teams are necessary to ensure top dollar and full coverage nationwide. Otherwise the SEC would already have split to form its own league. The SEC can't because college sports are driven primarily based on regional interest.

Regarding the hoops tourney, as long as the NCAA has control and half the revenue, the P5 have to play by NCAA rules. If there are sufficient teams, the top conferences can completely break from the NCAA, set up their own tourneys, create their own academic standards and enforcement,, etc., and keep all the money. Your suggestion of some hoops only schools is possible and would make Olympic sports easier to manage, too. It would also keep a lot of regional flavor in hoops, baseball, hockey, lacrosse, etc. in play.

Football may drive the bus but there is far more money out there for live sports programming than ESPN lets on.

Anyway, it is fun to speculate.

If you let the Big East join given that they also go to 16 teams then you can add Gonzaga, San Fransisco, St Marys, Santa Clara as a Western pod. Then round it out with Saint Louis and Dayton.

That gives you 96 schools and you can have a 68 team tournament still. That would also cover every NCAA champ since UTEP in 1966. Only other champs left out Loyola (1963), La Salle (1954), CCNY (1950), Holy Cross (1947), and Wyoming (1943).