I'm not sure exactly how to quantify this, but if you get a power conference team properly motivated to go destroy a patsy, I think they are going to meet their margin expectations at a much higher frequency than you'd see in a game against a team that has enough talent to belong on the same court.
A lot of what dictates margin in non-conference game against cupcakes is how long the starters play, how much mercy the head coach shows, etc. NET is incentivizing scheduling cupcakes and smoking them, when this isn't really good sportsmanship OR good for the sport/teams on either side.
If you throw NET out of the equation and ask me what I'd like to see Autry do if we're up 20 with 10 minutes left against a cupcake, my answer is to develop depth. Add NET in and I'm going to have to say keep playing the rotation and pour it on. For those decisions to potentially affect who gets into the dance is awful for college hoops.
I agree with most of your points. There can certainly be a league wide messaging in place for its teams to go all out in these games. And whether its messaging or not, the fact that this could dicate things is problematic.
There are a few ways to try to quantify things to see if some things are going on. A few of them are easy or easier. I'm going to post them on the "Conference Analysis 2024 - Post 1" thread at a later time.
1. Simply verify that its indeed the Q3 and Q4 margin that is separating the B12 from others. All the leagues play lots of Q4 games... for example the ACC plays 72 vs B12's 92... so we have a large enough sample to see what is happening average margin wise. I already noted the B12 Q1-Q2 Winning % does not really stand out this year and is comparable to others. So if Q4 margin is markedly different than we can isolate this as the factor behind the B12's Net.
I presume the analysis which takes a bit of time, but is relatively easy, will prove this is the case. I'm about 20% through right now and will look at it at somepoint in the next day or week.
That is the easy part.
2. We can also compare average NET vs average RPI. If your NET is higher its likely a margin thing pushing it. although the RPI hated lower half Q4 games so possibly not.
3. Now the hard part -- how do we quantify how much of that is potentially mandated or "gamed". That's hard because that involves box score digging and game flow evaluation. And that is beyond my abilities to dig and acceptably analyze.
That being said Q3 teams are certainly more competitive than Q4 teams but they are all beatable. If the Big 12 can't outperform Q3 teams relative to others, compared to how it does Q4 teams, its at least some further evidence to suggest they are trying to pound more than others.
Re Syracuse
Regarding the part on Syracuse though. I don't think it was a "nobility" thing on our end, in terms of going deep, and that we chose not to put down the hammer at the end -- our Q4 games remarkably almost all had the same game flow and end results.
Up 12 against New Hampshire at the half, won by 11
Up 9 against Canisius, won by 12
Up 10 against Niagara at the half, won by 12
We never really got on those teams early. An average margin of 11 at the half against Q4 teams is not very impressive. Built nice enough leads though... then we would start the half up 10 and the team with its starters and rotation guys would come out flat and let those teams hang around.
Its very possibly a player mentality thing that needs to be improved. And I would even say that for the NET, but just in terms of good basketball. You can't comfortable up 10 against bad teams, and just coast.
Because the same thing will happen against moderate teams. There is a coasting mentality on the team right now apparently -- and as I said its not just bad for the NET, but can bite you in the butt for legitimate games as well.
