Conference ranking bone to pick... | Page 2 | Syracusefan.com

Conference ranking bone to pick...

IMO, any league with Syracuse in it is the best league to watch.

But that's just me.
I've watched every Syracuse game I could since the 70's. I watched back when they were on VHF 43 and it would fade in and out. Marty Head and Fast Eddy days. But, the ACC right now is lame, it's a 2 bid league. I need to watch real fiercely contested games where the coaches are doing a great job in game and the talent level is top shelf and the officiating is reasonable. The Big12 is great too but I'm just not into their teams all that much.
 
This ^^^ post is worth the time of anybody that follows CBB, SU, Bracketology, etc.

The Big 12 hired a slickster as a commissioner (Brett Yormark), and I don't really like him, but he is doing the job on both the football and hoops side. He's got a cult-ish persona to him. Almost like he'd be a pastor of a megachurch located (perhaps not coincidentally) in the plains.

How a conference in ~15 years can lose Texas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Missouri, Colorado (back soon!) and still have enough juice/bravado to out-maneuver/eliminate the Pac 12, it absolutely befuddles me? And none of the remaining teams have any decent level of academic standing, outside of Kansas, which is a solid, but decidedly middle-of-the road state academic institution.

Maybe the lack of academic-related scruples is the key.

Hey, I hate to say it, but you have to give them/Yormark credit.

The ACC/Phillips is going to have its hands full trying the fend off this shyster. This won't be a clean fight either. I don't think Yormark fights fair, if you know what I mean.
The Big 12 is going to go after UConn next, If they add them, I can'see how the ACC can stop the B12.
 
A few more comments on the Big"NET" Gaming and MWC. My general thought on the NET aspect as discussed above is that its still generally schedule independent since margin expectations become higher against patsies. I think a lot of people that are posting these tweets don't fully appreciate that point.

So it shouldn't heavily drive things -- that being said to discount this idea you should see other positives in what the B12 compared to others. These were clear in 2023... in 2024 hardly so - so you can't discount the NET manipulation off the top. One might be able to argue that its not NET manipulation -- but just that they dominated patsies "better" than other leagues. Which would still be a bad way to rank them higher.


It was easy to discount that Big 12 gamed the NET last year to get where they were, because they actually performed well in quality games. This was the data I ran last March. The data is not as convincing this year.

2023 Numbers
Q1+Q2 Wins (Good Wins) / Q3+q4 losses (bad losses)
Big 12: 30/2 (with 10 teams)
SEC: 31/11 (with 14 teams)
B10: 24/8
BE: 16/8
ACC: 21/18
p12: 18/17
MWC: 20/19

The Big12 was just on another level in 2023. They clearly earned their status They averaged 3 quality wins per team, when nobody else reallly got much more than 2...

Next Post - 2024 Numbers. I'm going to post a separate thread for this.
 
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No Maui and maybe 1 good roster move like healthy Westry starting instead of Taylor + Edwards and this team could be having the season everyone wants. In large part bc none of these other ACC teams are any better than us as is.

The last time the ACC was this bad everyone who made the tournament went on a run so I don't think its anything to worry about.
 
My general thought on the NET aspect as discussed above is that its still generally schedule independent since margin expectations become higher against patsies. I think a lot of people that are posting these tweets don't fully appreciate that point.
I'm not sure exactly how to quantify this, but if you get a power conference team properly motivated to go destroy a patsy, I think they are going to meet their margin expectations at a much higher frequency than you'd see in a game against a team that has enough talent to belong on the same court.

A lot of what dictates margin in non-conference game against cupcakes is how long the starters play, how much mercy the head coach shows, etc. NET is incentivizing scheduling cupcakes and smoking them, when this isn't really good sportsmanship OR good for the sport/teams on either side.

If you throw NET out of the equation and ask me what I'd like to see Autry do if we're up 20 with 10 minutes left against a cupcake, my answer is to develop depth. Add NET in and I'm going to have to say keep playing the rotation and pour it on. For those decisions to potentially affect who gets into the dance is awful for college hoops.
 
The Big Ten and SEC have added schools that will greatly strengthen those conferences in football and basketball next season while the ACC picked up PAC-12 leftovers that will further dilute the league in those sports. I'm sure we will see a lot more posts about the ACC's conference ranking next year. Like it or not, the current NET Rankings reflect the overall mediocre quality of the league this season. Go Cuse!
 
Yormark has stated this in public.
Yormark talked about adding UConn before the Big XII added the 4 Corners Schools. After they added those 4, Yormark stated that the UConn move was dead.
 
Yormark talked about adding UConn before the Big XII added the 4 Corners Schools. After they added those 4, Yormark stated that the UConn move was dead.
Dead for that phase. He still is trying to build his vision of a college basketball super league. You could google it and see.
 
I'm not sure exactly how to quantify this, but if you get a power conference team properly motivated to go destroy a patsy, I think they are going to meet their margin expectations at a much higher frequency than you'd see in a game against a team that has enough talent to belong on the same court.

A lot of what dictates margin in non-conference game against cupcakes is how long the starters play, how much mercy the head coach shows, etc. NET is incentivizing scheduling cupcakes and smoking them, when this isn't really good sportsmanship OR good for the sport/teams on either side.

If you throw NET out of the equation and ask me what I'd like to see Autry do if we're up 20 with 10 minutes left against a cupcake, my answer is to develop depth. Add NET in and I'm going to have to say keep playing the rotation and pour it on. For those decisions to potentially affect who gets into the dance is awful for college hoops.

I agree with most of your points. There can certainly be a league wide messaging in place for its teams to go all out in these games. And whether its messaging or not, the fact that this could dicate things is problematic.

There are a few ways to try to quantify things to see if some things are going on. A few of them are easy or easier. I'm going to post them on the "Conference Analysis 2024 - Post 1" thread at a later time.

1. Simply verify that its indeed the Q3 and Q4 margin that is separating the B12 from others. All the leagues play lots of Q4 games... for example the ACC plays 72 vs B12's 92... so we have a large enough sample to see what is happening average margin wise. I already noted the B12 Q1-Q2 Winning % does not really stand out this year and is comparable to others. So if Q4 margin is markedly different than we can isolate this as the factor behind the B12's Net.

I presume the analysis which takes a bit of time, but is relatively easy, will prove this is the case. I'm about 20% through right now and will look at it at somepoint in the next day or week.

That is the easy part.

2. We can also compare average NET vs average RPI. If your NET is higher its likely a margin thing pushing it. although the RPI hated lower half Q4 games so possibly not.

3. Now the hard part -- how do we quantify how much of that is potentially mandated or "gamed". That's hard because that involves box score digging and game flow evaluation. And that is beyond my abilities to dig and acceptably analyze.

That being said Q3 teams are certainly more competitive than Q4 teams but they are all beatable. If the Big 12 can't outperform Q3 teams relative to others, compared to how it does Q4 teams, its at least some further evidence to suggest they are trying to pound more than others.



Re Syracuse
Regarding the part on Syracuse though. I don't think it was a "nobility" thing on our end, in terms of going deep, and that we chose not to put down the hammer at the end -- our Q4 games remarkably almost all had the same game flow and end results.
Up 12 against New Hampshire at the half, won by 11
Up 9 against Canisius, won by 12
Up 10 against Niagara at the half, won by 12

We never really got on those teams early. An average margin of 11 at the half against Q4 teams is not very impressive. Built nice enough leads though... then we would start the half up 10 and the team with its starters and rotation guys would come out flat and let those teams hang around.

Its very possibly a player mentality thing that needs to be improved. And I would even say that for the NET, but just in terms of good basketball. You can't comfortable up 10 against bad teams, and just coast.

Because the same thing will happen against moderate teams. There is a coasting mentality on the team right now apparently -- and as I said its not just bad for the NET, but can bite you in the butt for legitimate games as well.
 
I have calculated the NET vs RPI for the Big 12.

Big 12 Aveage NET = 46
Big 12 Average RPI = 67

That difference of 21 spots is MASSIVE - some might not immediately think that, but spending a bunch of time in the numbers that is huge. Warren Nolan will show Q1 + Q2 games for all schools under all approaches, but the swing by year could be very significant, so we will be able to see impact then.. I'm sure it's already made a difference.

Now there could be a few reasons for this. Note that I have already found that its not Q1+Q2 play where the B12 is on par with the ACC and SEC in win%.
1) RPI is only W-L. It also punishes bad schedules really bad ... in particular games in the bottom 25% of the RPI. (280-360)
2) NET rewards margin, And I suspect I will find that its not merely the beating of Q4 teams, but how the B12 are "better" at it. We can never know if its "pushed down mandate" or just luck but it is happening and driving things.

Here are a few teams I already found
Iowa St wons its 8 Q4 games by 347 points! An average of 43 per game over 8 games. Its NET is #10... its RPI is #36.

BYU won its 8 Q4 games by 308 points! An average of 38 per game. Its NET is #6, its RPI is #45.

The solution as I proposed before, is really staring us in the face.

Neither the RPI or the NET are great and have limitations. But they are natural hedges of each other. If you game the NET by trying to play a high % of pummel games, the RPI will catch you because it really punishes Q4 games due to the basic SOS calculation. If you want to game the RPI, you focus on playing Q3 games and trying to avoid Q4 games OOC. But that won't help your NET. Both systems actually hedge off each other to a fair agree. Call it NET if you want, but the secret sauce should be 50% of whatever NET is now, and 50% of the old school RPI.
 

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