Could 9-loss Michigan State get a 1 seed?

[Eric15]

That might be a stupid question, but is that possible? They're 7th in the NET, 4th in the BPI, 2nd in Sagarin, 7th in KenPom.

If they win the Big Ten Tourney and beat some combination of Ohio State/Maryland/whomever and pad their computer numbers even more, is it within the realm of possibility?

 

[skurey]

They always get a high seed with tons of losses. That's why we should play a tougher non conference schedule.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Going to be hard to pass KU, Baylor, or Gonzaga. Only chance is if Dayton/SDU/FSU all don't win their conference tournaments IMO.

 

[Cusefan0307]

They always get a high seed with tons of losses. That's why we should play a tougher non conference schedule.

6 of their 9 losses are in conference play and on of those non-conference losses was to Virginia Tech. Doesn't scream one seed to me. 3 or 4 most likely. Reminds me of our 2013 team. Lot's of good wins, but also struggled some especially on the road.

 

[Alsacs]

Nope.
Kansas, Gonzaga are locks.

Baylor, Dayton control the other two 1 seeds.
If they lose then Florida State and San Diego State have a chance..

Michigan State is such a joke with the fact every year they get all their losses excused.
They lost to Virginia Tech in Maui. They lost to Duke at home by double digits.
They got pounded at Purdue.

Give me a break if they get above a 3 seed and they shouldn't get a 3 seed unless they win the Big Ten tournament.

 

[Chris02M]

dont forget big 10 title game is at 3 30 so has no bearing on seeding

 

[jncuse]

Not getting a #1 seed. Only P5 school that has a real outside shot at that is Florida St. (Had talked about it on the weekend before SD St had lost)

If they win the Big 10, I think they will get a #2. maybe the top 3 -- if they end up B10 champion they would be 10-7 or 11-7 in Quad 1, and 17-9 in Q1+Q2. In that case I am only certain that Kansas, Baylor, San DIego St, Gonzaga, Florida St, Dayton are above them. I could see #7 and #8 being the two top teams in the BIG and Big East.

No lower than #9 on the s-curve, and I suspect #8. Their main counterparts are Duke, the BIg East 3 (Nova, Seton Hall, Creighton), and Maryland. and as conference champion their resume compares with all of them
Teams can accomplish a lot in conference week, so if a team loses early and gets no Q1 wins it could get passed by a team that wins the title.

 

[jncuse]

Nope.
Kansas, Gonzaga are locks.

Baylor, Dayton control the other two 1 seeds.
If they lose then Florida State and San Diego State have a chance..

Michigan State is such a joke with the fact every year they get all their losses excused.
They lost to Virginia Tech in Maui. They lost to Duke at home by double digits.
They got pounded at Purdue.

Give me a break if they get above a 3 seed and they shouldn't get a 3 seed unless they win the Big Ten tournament.

I saw your post in my bubble yesterday, but I forgot to respond.

Regarding your #1 seed watch. I think the only real disagreement is on Baylor. To me they locked up a #1 seed. They have struggled of late buy they built up a large, large gap. They did great OOC, and did well in one of the best 3 conferences.

I also theorized that perhaps San Diego St is also above Dayton even if Dayton wins the A-10. I suspect Dayton would get it, but would not be stunned given what San Diego St did out of conference.

But there is judgment involved here and biases, so I can see Florida St getting the #1 seed in the East if Dayton and San Diego St lose and they win the ACC.

Regarding Michigan St -- always need to remember that the committee relies heavily on metrics to make their calls. As much as we may rightly feel that a conference or team is not that good based on watching them, the committee tends not to play that card too often. Michigan St and the B10 also have the rep factor this year/

 

[STEVEHOLT]

the big ten is going to fall flat on its face in the tourney.. a bunch of 4-12 seed quality treams with their computer numbers artificially elevated by a decent preconference performance..

That’s the huge flaw in these systems ... if a league as a collective starts their conference play with good computer numbers .. the numbers perpetuate themselves artificially as they play each other over and over ..

Now you can argue the case that the reason they entered conference play with good numbers is BECAUSE they are good .. and sometimes that is true .. but just as often it’s not true and the numbers are based on system gaming , luck , or small sample size ...

Conferences can literally get together as a collective and figure this crap out so they can all benefit from the fake numbers

 

[jncuse]

dont forget big 10 title game is at 3 30 so has no bearing on seeding

That's not nessarily true -- sometimes they use placeholders (i.e one teams gets the 3 the other get the 4), some times they build two brackets, and sometimes they pretend the game never took place as you suggest.

I

 

[Capt. Tuttle]

They always get a high seed with tons of losses. That's why we should play a tougher non conference schedule.

NCAA likes Izzo, does not like JB. Would not get the same treatment.

 

[Cusefan0307]

NCAA likes Izzo, does not like JB. Would not get the same treatment.

In their eyes the BIG 10 is the NCAA.

 

[sufandu]

the big ten is going to fall flat on its face in the tourney.. a bunch of 4-12 seed quality treams with their computer numbers artificially elevated by a decent preconference performance..

That’s the huge flaw in these systems ... if a league as a collective starts their conference play with good computer numbers .. the numbers perpetuate themselves artificially as they play each other over and over ..

Now you can argue the case that the reason they entered conference play with good numbers is BECAUSE they are good .. and sometimes that is true .. but just as often it’s not true and the numbers are based on system gaming , luck , or small sample size ...

Conferences can literally get together as a collective and figure this crap out so they can all benefit from the fake numbers

Reducing the conference schedule and playing a couple mid season OOC games could help all of that and make the season more interesting for fans. Wait, I forgot it's not about the fans. It's about league revenue. My bad.

 

[bpo57]

That might be a stupid question, but is that possible? They're 7th in the NET, 4th in the BPI, 2nd in Sagarin, 7th in KenPom.

If they win the Big Ten Tourney and beat some combination of Ohio State/Maryland/whomever and pad their computer numbers even more, is it within the realm of possibility?

KU and Baylor are already in ahead of them. I think Dayton and Gonzaga are as well. SD ST has played their way out of that top line imo.