Cuse opens -6 over VCU…

[jdubs30]

Might not be a strength but have they played a game where they got all wide open looks?

They have played literally the easiest schedule in the country up until this point.

 

[CardiacCuse]

the line is moving down to -5. what does that mean?

 

[690West]

the line is moving down to -5. what does that mean?

It usually means more money is coming in on VCU so they are trying to entice more action on Cuse to balance their liability

 

[jdubs30]

the line is moving down to -5. what does that mean?

Houston opened at -6 and is at -4.5 now; MSU also opened -3 and is now -2.

690West is right.

It’s still early in the CBB season so a lot of these opening lines are soft as well

 

[jncuse]

Dare I say, they are not the matchup nightmare of our previous game?

I will let you know in about 7 hours.

 

[OrangeTown]

Don't forget that if our last trip to Atlantis is any indication, we'll have an enormous crowd advantage. Not sure how the small, dark environment will affect our long range shooters, though.

 

[007]

Their full court constant pressure defense will be an interesting test for this team. I think we will struggle to make the initial entry pass vs full court pressure more than we will struggle to break the press once we get it in.

 

[CardiacCuse]

Their full court constant pressure defense will be an interesting test for this team. I think we will struggle to make the initial entry pass vs full court pressure more than we will struggle to break the press once we get it in.

sounds similar to houston...which was rough. i guess that will be the story of the game.

 

[CardiacCuse]

It usually means more money is coming in on VCU so they are trying to entice more action on Cuse to balance their liability

hmm...interesting. wonder why people are betting for VCU...

 

[007]

sounds similar to houston...which was rough. i guess that will be the story of the game.

Houston could score, VCU not so much.

 

[690West]

hmm...interesting. wonder why people are betting for VCU...

Because the public looks at our Colgate game and overreacts the same as the majority of the board and thinks we’re suddenly East Bummfukk state

 

[djorange1989]

I very much expect us to win big today. Against Baylor?(assuming they win today). Um, not too sure there

 

[djcon57]

Because the public looks at our Colgate game and overreacts the same as the majority of the board and thinks we’re suddenly East Bummfukk state

That’s not why lines move. Very rarely do lines move due to public betting

 

[Doc5120]

I think we will play better this week than people think. JB does well in events like this. We have the best shooting team in Atlantis. Veteran, experienced group. We just got embarrassed so you can expect these kids to bounce back. We also have a player on who can almost win a game by himself (there aren’t many guys like that in Atlantis, IMO).


Last time we were in Atlantis we crushed Charlotte and that set the tone for the rest of the week - hopefully tonight is similar

The Colgate loss was almost unfathomable to me. Yet I agree with you - I think we get right tonight. Something has to go right for one of our sports programs!

 

[jncuse]

Because the public looks at our Colgate game and overreacts the same as the majority of the board and thinks we’re suddenly East Bummfukk state

I would say its based on tracking the larger sharp bets and nothing to do with casuals who always lean to bigger name programs in regular season games.

Vegas has no problem taking on Joe Public in college basketball -- they actually have no choice in college basketball where they simply can't force feed most games even close to 50/50 -- otherwise they expose themselves to late action from people who would could put them on the wrong side (less than 50%) of a bad line -- which is a disaster for Vegas. Vegas seems to be content on setting lines in college basketball with 67%+ (2/3rd's action on one side) because that is what happens in the majority of games.

 

[690West]

That’s not why lines move. Very rarely do lines move due to public betting

Good point. As long as you agree that the sharps are as clueless as the public. Sharp is the biggest oxymoron ever. Like 1% of professional bettors are successful long term. Of course they all claim to be profitable. Lol

 

[kirbivore]

Syracuse and UCONN Friday at 11:00 with reheated Thanksgiving leftovers, I believe.

Nope. Storz is losing the Auburn today.

 

[jncuse]

Good point. As long as you agree that the sharps are as clueless as the public. Sharp is the biggest oxymoron ever. Like 1% of professional bettors are successful long term. Of course they all claim to be profitable. Lol

Good point. I suspect they have systems to track the actions of specifically those few who do well... not those who "claim to do well" in public.

But relating to college basketball -- if I knew they were trying to force the action to 50/50 on regular season games, I would bet on the dog school every time. It wouln't even require me to be a "sharp", which I clearly am not.

Put me down into the slight casual loser year after year after year.
Thankfully I like to talk more about betting than investing heavily into it!

Except for the nice 8-1 run I have had on Scottie Barnes assist bets which I have bet larger than normal, because I was so convinced they were wrong and thought maybe I had some knowledge on it. Which is typically the recipe for failure! It will pay for new golf clubs next year, as I cashed out most of those winnings as my float was getting uncomfortably high for me. I had to cash out before I became stupid again.

 

[kirbivore]

Good point. I suspect they have systems to track the actions of specifically those few who do well... not those who "claim to do well" in public.

I've been listening to the Warren Sharp podcast on the Ringer network and he's said that there are sharp groups out there that the books pay attention to and move the lines accordingly to those bets.

 

[sutomcat]

They also have a lockdown, big pressure defense. It’s gonna be a dogfight.

Yes, they are going to be a great test for us. Really good prep for teams like Virginia and Duke.

I hope we are ready for it. This one is going to be an ugly rockfight. Really low scoring.

 

[djcon57]

Good point. As long as you agree that the sharps are as clueless as the public. Sharp is the biggest oxymoron ever. Like 1% of professional bettors are successful long term. Of course they all claim to be profitable. Lol

Sure...but that’s what the books tend to base the line moves on.

 

[CardiacCuse]

Because the public looks at our Colgate game and overreacts the same as the majority of the board and thinks we’re suddenly East Bummfukk state

yeah but VCU just lost to chattanooga so shouldnt that mitigate the bumfikkiness (sp?)??? haha

I thought when the line moves its to get the action more towards 50/50...(which, if so, surprises me that bettors would go for vcu)

... if the line doesnt move based on the axtion...then why does it move?

 

[althea]

Sure...but that’s what the books tend to base the line moves on.

Pardon my lack of gambling knowledge here, but what does this mean? That they set the point spreads based on what professional gamblers do?

 

[CardiacCuse]

Pardon my lack of gambling knowledge here, but what does this mean? That they set the point spreads based on what professional gamblers do?

well from my understanding the line fluctuates based on what bets are already made. If all of the money - or most of the money is on one side...then the house prefers to even it out and avoid a huge payout. so they adjust the line to induce action on one side or other. They get paid regardless based on juice, or tax, so if every bet was split 50/50 they would make a lot of money still. But there are wrinkles to it. Sometimes the line can move as a trick or as a smokescreen because those setting lines also know that people are watching how the line moves...big time bettors can even bet big to change the line only to then bet even bigger the other way...its a game of charades and sometimes means nothing...or it could mean there is insider info that some bettors have...and be an indication of the likely result of the game.

 

[djcon57]

Pardon my lack of gambling knowledge here, but what does this mean? That they set the point spreads based on what professional gamblers do?

they move the line based on how they react to the initial spread.