Cuse opens as 14.5 road dogs vs Duke.

[sutomcat]

Hopefully we’ll also start including screens, some kickouts from penetration etc to help our shooters. We don’t seem to scheme to use our offense to free up the shooters unless the defense makes a mistake while passing around the perimeter. They seem to be a low option in our offense.

Duke also just got better getting Tyrese Proctor back in the lineup after an injury. It will make it even more difficult to out “athletic” Duke.

I think the identity that is emerging for this team is one of toughness and physical play.

I don't see any shot blockers on the Duke roster (Filipkowki is okay at this; nothing special) and I am not sure they really have a power forward.

I think our best bet is to attack the basket and try and get Filipkowski in foul trouble. It will help playing them with no students there. Their guards are good outside shooters we need to stay close to and not allow to get into the paint.

 

[stlorange]

we have shown little ability to defend the pick and roll. I think their big will kill us on this.

 

[upperdeck]

we have shown little ability to defend the pick and roll. I think their big will kill us on this.

it does seem like the team has no idea its coming when it happens.. the trailer never picks it up and the help never drops over. but it has improved during the year, from awful, to bad, maybe it can make the leap to avg.

 

[realorange]

It would be an ideal time for Bell, Taylor and McLeod to not start.

The ongoing starting lineup moves the ball well, plays decent defense and doesn't make big mistakes. McLeod is fine for maybe 5 minutes if he is blocking shots and getting rebounds. Can we remember the years Rak started games but rarely lasted more than 5 minutes. Not saying McLeod will have that upside later, but he should improve.

Starting others, particularly Cope, as good as he is, he is prone to make mistakes and you don't want that setting an early pattern.

Until we see some radical player ability change, the starting lineup is fine.

 

[Niastri]

Can we stop the pre-bytching about the refs?

It goes to show how much of an advantage Duke has with the refs that we're already game planning our loss because of them.

I predict at least 4 reach-in fouls that are clean steals to go with a phantom charge and two clean blocks. We lose because the ten extra free throws the refs gift Duke along with the extra time Brown and Mintz have to sit on the bench with foul trouble.

And the one technical Red gets because of the biased officiating.

 

[CardiacCuse]

I’m probably blacking out but I don’t remember that big of a line against us before?

Four things working against us:
1. We are terrible guarding the 3 and Duke, like UVA will take advantage of that.
2. We are horrific shooting from 3 ourselves.
3. Our biggest strength on offense is the drive and foul line. The refs will just not allow that in a game at Duke.
4. Our second biggest strength is our aggressive and somewhat handsy defense. Again, the refs will not allow this.

I suspect Duke will hit 12+ 3s and that Judah will almost certainly foul out. I also predict Brown will be in almost instant foul trouble.

yeah this is pretty much worst case...wont go that badly, imo

(dont think the team gets away with being handsy on D though...theyve gotten called a lot for those things in other games...so being in foul trouble will just be ormal and with the depth im not worried)

not that bad guarding the 3 in the last 5 (this isnt JBs zone anymore in case you didnt notic)...and we can shoot well from 3...it has happened in some games

if we can beat pitt going 3-17...imagine if they light it up from 3 this game...

 

[OptimusOtto]

yeah this is pretty much worst case...wont go that badly, imo

(dont think the team gets away with being handsy on D though...theyve gotten called a lot for those things in other games...so being in foul trouble will just be ormal and with the depth im not worried)

not that bad guarding the 3 in the last 5 (this isnt JBs zone anymore in case you didnt notic)...and we can shoot well from 3...it has happened in some games

if we can beat pitt going 3-17...imagine if they light it up from 3 this game...

Bell needs to see one go down. This feels like a spot for him to have a bounce back.

 

[jdubs30]

Yes, I am serious. They already lost to Georgia Tech. Outside of the season they missed the tourney I think this is their weakest team since before K went all in on one and dones.

There's a big difference between being selected 15-20 than having to deal with 3 lottery picks. Roach is solid, but Judah is better and he should outplay him if he wants to get drafted higher than he's projected.

Eh. Proctor got hurt in that game so he basically didn’t play. also, ever since then Jared McCain has really played well.

Duke has been dominant at home this year other than the Arizona game.!

 

[jdubs30]

Bell needs to see one go down. This feels like a spot for him to have a bounce back.

Duke plays a lot of 3 guard lineups so Bell could potentially have someone smaller on him

 

[Cusefan0307]

Eh. Proctor got hurt in that game so he basically didn’t play. also, ever since then Jared McCain has really played well.

Duke has been dominant at home this year other than the Arizona game.!

They should be dominant at home in those other games. They've played no one. They also lost to a talented, but mediocre Arkansas team where Proctor went 3-12. You guys are kidding yourselves if this Duke team is anywhere close to anything they've put on the court the past 10 years.

 

[AlaskaSU]

The ongoing starting lineup moves the ball well, plays decent defense and doesn't make big mistakes. McLeod is fine for maybe 5 minutes if he is blocking shots and getting rebounds. Can we remember the years Rak started games but rarely lasted more than 5 minutes. Not saying McLeod will have that upside later, but he should improve.

Starting others, particularly Cope, as good as he is, he is prone to make mistakes and you don't want that setting an early pattern.

Until we see some radical player ability change, the starting lineup is fine.

Digging the team into a hole is not my definition of fine. They cannot score and their net points are a gift to the opposition. Yes, Cope makes turnovers but overall he contributes far more than those 3 starters combined.

 

[djcon57]

ESPN gives us a 7.6% chance of winning.

My counter to this would be...

I give ESPN a 7.6% chance of seeing them in hell

 

[OCESIP]

So if we keep it close and don't get blown out does
Ken Pom move us up just for being better than expected?

 

[CuseFaninVT]

It goes to show how much of an advantage Duke has with the refs that we're already game planning our loss because of them.

I predict at least 4 reach-in fouls that are clean steals to go with a phantom charge and two clean blocks. We lose because the ten extra free throws the refs gift Duke along with the extra time Brown and Mintz have to sit on the bench with foul trouble.

And the one technical Red gets because of the biased officiating.

You’ll be wrong. Reaches are almost always a foul. Even if our guy does it, and even if you think it was clean, it’s also lazy AF defense.

 

[M2MPrinciples]

I don't expect us to shoot 20+ FT's like we have recently. One glimmer of hope is that Duke's transition defense is atrocious because they play two-big lineups almost exclusively, so hopefully we can poke a few loose and exploit that instead of just taking the air out of the ball like a lot of 14-point underdogs would do.

 

[Fly Rodder]

So if we keep it close and don't get blown out does
Ken Pom move us up just for being better than expected?

no.

 

[Cuse181]

They should be dominant at home in those other games. They've played no one. They also lost to a talented, but mediocre Arkansas team where Proctor went 3-12. You guys are kidding yourselves if this Duke team is anywhere close to anything they've put on the court the past 10 years.

they're a "bad" team until someone loses against them, then they are the greatest team of all time. we will see where the board shifts by 11:00pm

 

[FrancoPizza]

Bell needs to see one go down. This feels like a spot for him to have a bounce back.

How bout we just sit him whenever he chucks outside the flow of the offense?

 

[Niastri]

I don't expect us to shoot 20+ FT's like we have recently. One glimmer of hope is that Duke's transition defense is atrocious because they play two-big lineups almost exclusively, so hopefully we can poke a few loose and exploit that instead of just taking the air out of the ball like a lot of 14-point underdogs would do.

Yeah, getting their bigs moving backwards in transition is a good way for us to get them into foul trouble.

 

[jncuse]

no.

I know we agree on many things on the KP Thread, but my belief is that if we keep it close we move up (assuming nothing crazy is happening to a couple teams we have already played tonight which would shift things a bit as well). Let's hope we keep it close and we shall see.

My expectation if we lost by 5 points and in a normal paced game for both teams (around 70), our EM would move up from around +9.6 to about +10.2. (8.5 / 14 = .6, with 8.5 being the delta between the expected gap of 13.5 and the actual gap. And such a rise would move us from about 82 to 77.

But I could be wrong - there are other factors and its not direct, but I presume this is the biggest driver game to game.

 

[UpstateSM]

I think that Dook destroys us on the glass from the jump, we start to crumble and ultimately it gets ugly. I would love love love to be wrong.

 

[CuseFaninVT]

I think that Dook destroys us on the glass from the jump, we start to crumble and ultimately it gets ugly. I would love love love to be wrong.

Aren’t you a little drop of sunshine?

 

[jncuse]

As usual the line is generally in line with what KP predicts (Vegas has to be using a very similar system for setting opening lines) -- looking at the front page only (I don't subscribe) I calculated the KP spread at about 9.7 and then adding the home court I get 13.2.

Regarding the delta from 13.2 to 14.5... both teams are trending well since their first ACC game.
But Duke does seem to have a fairly big home court advantage statistically over the years (Surprise!, Surprise!), so that could be the source of an extra point (or not). I do think that betting money line against Duke on the road in conference play tends to pay out over time.

As an aside if someone strongly disagrees with a team ranking in KP as of now, then that is a team you should target to bet against (or bet for) for the next 2 weeks.

 

[CardiacCuse]

I think the identity that is emerging for this team is one of toughness and physical play.

I don't see any shot blockers on the Duke roster (Filipkowki is okay at this; nothing special) and I am not sure they really have a power forward.

I think our best bet is to attack the basket and try and get Filipkowski in foul trouble. It will help playing them with no students there. Their guards are good outside shooters we need to stay close to and not allow to get into the paint.

Georgia Tech beat them shooting only 7-23 from 3...and tying the rebound battle 33-33

which def bodes well for the Orange chances, imo

GT play physical defense too...but they only had 1 steal

they did win the assist battle - 19-12

and limited Duke to 4-16 from 3

I feel like if SU can play well in the halfcourt on offense...and play good 3pt Defense, they will win.

Duke takes care of the ball very well and only had 6 turnovers in the loss to GT - so SU likely wont be able to generate much points off turnovers - which has been a staple in recent wins - where will the points come from?

 

[Gotothehole]

Taking Cuse and the points