Dear american football...

[OrangePA]

I'll just, once again, make the point that participation in youth sports is not correlated to their corresponding professional league's attendance or TV ratings.

Not now.

 

[CanadianSU]

the NHL should've been embarrassed to have the Sabres on NBCSN so much last year. despite tanking on purpose and being the least entertaining team in the world, they were still better off having that idiot milbury troll depressed buffalo hockey nuts.

big difference between closing hockey thigh gap and closing any other gap.

There tanking again, they just signed Gomez...

 

[Scooch]

That's ignoring demographic and taste trends. It used to be, just 10 years ago, that even the TV announcers were not that familiar with the rules of the sport. Pretty much everyone has had kids play soccer by now, and pretty much everyone understands things like the offsides rule, which wasn't the case not that long ago. Soccer's "otherness" is pretty much gone. And in fact, MLS ratings are doing reasonably well. I expect a pretty big spike after the World Cup, as these players mostly come home to MLS teams, instead of going off to Europe.

No, it's not ignoring anything, it's from analyzing 40+ years of youth sports participation and TV ratings data.

 

[Scooch]

Not now.

Ugh. OK.

 

[CanadianSU]

Remember there is numerous non contact hockey leagues, that are becoming more popular than traditional rep, even in Canada

 

[IthacaMatt]

FWIW, I think this has been a very good thread.

I'll lob a couple data points I am able to share into the discussion...

A very relevant measure is the % avid fan base for leagues and sports. Avid fans are what drive a sport on a day-to-day basis. Moderate and casual fans may dip in and out, but it's the avids that sustain a league in terms of core attendance, TV ratings, etc.

Knowing that, about one-third of Americans age 12+ are avid fans of the NFL. 2nd place is college football, which counts about one-quarter of Americans as avid fans. MLB, NBA and college hoops are in the 15-20% range. International Soccer and MLS in the 5-10% range.

So, this isn't entirely correlative to TV ratings and attendance, but it's useful in a directional sense. Soccer is on the rise, legitimately, and there is lots of evidence to support that. We *also* are a sports-obsessed nation that has a VERY crowded sports landscape.

The notion that any of the 5 majors will see a rapid, massive decline in interest is not based in reality. .

Scooch, for the "avid fans" numbers to be truly meaningful, you really ought to break it down by age group.

For example, MLS has already caught up to MLB among 12-17 year olds, with each sport claiming 18% avid fans - and this was 3 months before the World Cup.

http://www.mlssoccer.com/sideline/n...l-mlb-avid-interest-popularity-among-children

And as our country becomes more Hispanic, that also affects the popularity of various sports. Unsurprisingly, soccer is the most popular sport of Hispanic Americans, even more popular than the NFL.

http://sportspath.typepad.com/files/soccer-popularity-continues-to-climb.pdf

 

[IthacaMatt]

This is spot on. We like to watch the best. If World Cup was every year - soccer would be massive. Instead the best is overseas, and hard to watch.

What you will find out is that there are major international competitions going on all the time - European Championships, Gold Cup, Confederations Cup, World Cup qualifying. It's an endless banquet, once you get into it.

 

[IthacaMatt]

No, it's not ignoring anything, it's from analyzing 40+ years of youth sports participation and TV ratings data.

Scooch, my point is that most baseball fans are older, and older people eventually die. As younger fans turn to other sports, baseball can't help but lose popularity.

 

[Scooch]

Scooch, for the "avid fans" numbers to be truly meaningful, you really ought to break it down by age group.

For example, MLS has already caught up to MLB among 12-17 year olds, with each sport claiming 18% avid fans - and this was 3 months before the World Cup.

http://www.mlssoccer.com/sideline/n...l-mlb-avid-interest-popularity-among-children

And as our country becomes more Hispanic, that also affects the popularity of various sports. Unsurprisingly, soccer is the most popular sport of Hispanic Americans, even more popular than the NFL.

http://sportspath.typepad.com/files/soccer-popularity-continues-to-climb.pdf

Yeah, I can't provide that, but differences by age and ethnicity are important, obviously.

 

[Scooch]

Scooch, my point is that most baseball fans are older, and older people eventually die. As younger fans turn to other sports, baseball can't help but lose popularity.

OK, but what does that have do to with kids playing soccer related to TV audiences?

There's no correlation, just as there isn't for kids playing football and football TV ratings.

 

[billsin01]

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/2/10/5390172/major-league-attendance-trends-1950-2013

i don't think you're being objective about baseball. most soccer guys aren't.

Yeah, it's part of what makes this discussion so funny. Maybe decades from now we're all wearing Umbros and talking about how we need to keep spreading it wide on the pitch. Who knows, I can't see the future. But as much as soccer may be growing and baseball may be declining due to it's pace and other factors, baseball is currently getting a massive number of fans through the gates and making enormous amounts of coin on TV. Soccer has a long, long way to go to match that.

 

[KaiserUEO]

If we could remove the steadfast belief by many that personal experience and subjective interpretations do not necessarily constitute data driven "facts," then this thread would have been 1 page long...

if portugal had tied germany...this thread wouldnt exist.

 

[jekelish]

Scooch, my point is that most baseball fans are older, and older people eventually die. As younger fans turn to other sports, baseball can't help but lose popularity.

On top of that - historically, youth soccer players generally move to basketball or football, particularly the top athletes. I'm not saying that will stop, but it was at least in part influenced by the potential careers in those other sports. Now, there are millions of dollars to be had playing soccer, and as MLS grows it will eventually start paying competitive wages to its players. There's a distinct career path for good soccer players now, much more so than there was 20 years ago. Some kids may decide to stick with soccer over other sports now because it's becoming a more viable future than it's ever been in this country.

 

[Chip]

No offense to soccer, but I feel like we go down this road every 4 years. And it starts to seem like some upstart sport. I'm in my 4th decade on this here Earth, and soccer was incredibly popular from the time I was about 5 years old. Everyone played it, from youth soccer, right up thru HS. The only difference was that the moms didn't drive mini vans to the game.

There's still a scoring issue that is going to be a problem for most of America. Getting the country to rally for the World Cup is wonderful, God knows this country could use some can't we all just get along time. But football just isn't going anywhere. They do have a concussion issue and that is going to be a problem for youth involvement, but I really think that's going to be a blip on the radar. They'll eventually figure something out to make the game more safe without compromising everything. They should address Pass Interference first. I think that will kill football first. No one will ever want to be a DB.

 

[cuseinchina]

Scooch, for the "avid fans" numbers to be truly meaningful, you really ought to break it down by age group.

For example, MLS has already caught up to MLB among 12-17 year olds, with each sport claiming 18% avid fans - and this was 3 months before the World Cup.

http://www.mlssoccer.com/sideline/n...l-mlb-avid-interest-popularity-among-children

And as our country becomes more Hispanic, that also affects the popularity of various sports. Unsurprisingly, soccer is the most popular sport of Hispanic Americans, even more popular than the NFL.

http://sportspath.typepad.com/files/soccer-popularity-continues-to-climb.pdf

This is all that matters right here. The rest of this discussion is essentially nostalgia. The young and the fastest growing population base prefer soccer. end of story.

 

[donniesyracuse]

Scooch, my point is that most baseball fans are older, and older people eventually die. As younger fans turn to other sports, baseball can't help but lose popularity.

Baseball is popular with Latinos (a growing part of the population). That should help.

 

[jekelish]

One other way to measure the growth of soccer in America is looking at the quality of the players themselves. We are so vastly better than we used to be it's ridiculous, and we are just going to keep getting better, as more kids play and take it as seriously as the other major sports.

 

[billsin01]

I'm 30 years old and played baseball until Jr Midget level which IIRC was 15 or 16 years old. As of 5 years ago the area I played for as well as some I played against no longer even have jr midget teams. Even when I was playing ~2000 most teams had a tough time fielding enough players for a team. As youth interest dries up, viewership will as well. I was a Red Sox fan, and still would claim them if asked but couldnt tell you much of anything about the team the last few years. The sport itself doesn't translate well to TV which is what drives $$$$$ and fan hood. The biggest baseball fan I know is my 80 y/o grandmother and my 70 y/o uncle. I work in an office full of 20, 30, and 40 somethings and you don't hear much baseball talked about nor do you ever see it on the break room tv. Football, basketball, soccer, and occassionally hockey you do.

You'll be hard pressed to find any "die hard" baseball fans under the age of 40 unless they are Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, etc. fans that were generationally born into fan hood. Kids/young adults aren't looking for baseball on their own at this point. Again I ask, how many kids do you see in your neighborhood in the back yard with a baseball, bat and glove? How many times do you drive by a local baseball diamond and actually see people there?

I was a baseball fan far before I was a soccer guy but watching/following both sports aren't even on the same planet as far as excitement/drama go.

I don't really disagree with anything in this post and I'm in an unusual camp as far as this discussion goes b/c I have to think baseball's not going to translate to a generation of people who would much rather read hundreds of 140-character nonsense tweets than actually read a well-researched series of investigative journalism. Yet I'm also sub-40 and a huge baseball fan.

But what's interesting about your post is the fact that you basically identify yourself as a Sox fan of sorts. I think that's a pretty big hurdle for soccer or lacrosse or any 'growing' sport -- namely history and investment counts for a lot. There are a ton of baseball fans who pay no attention all year but walk around like peacocks for 3 months of' 'their team' is in the playoffs. It's because they still identify with the team they pay no attention to.

For soccer to reach and surpass baseball, people need to be invested in these MLS teams. I live in DC, I know people who attend the games and kids that like DC United but I'd still argue it is a long, long way from being inherently woven into the fabric of society the way baseball is.

 

[IthacaMatt]

mid major conferences aren't as popular as major conferences. we just spent 10 years worrying that we we were going to end up a mid major.

MLS is a mid major. it's ok, watchable, has fans. but mid majors are popular with people who went to those schools. there's nothing that's going to attach people to an MLS team like that.

People live in cities where these teams play. These games are family entertainment. That builds bonds. You're kind of underestimating the whole dynamic of why people go to sporting events. Why do we even have pro sports leagues for lacrosse, or indoor football, or indoor soccer, minor league hockey, etc.? Because people see them as good entertainment options.

 

[jekelish]

I don't really disagree with anything in this post and I'm in an unusual camp as far as this discussion goes b/c I have to think baseball's not going to translate to a generation of people who would much rather read hundreds of 140-character nonsense tweets than actually read a well-researched series of investigative journalism. Yet I'm also sub-40 and a huge baseball fan.

But what's interesting about your post is the fact that you basically identify yourself as a Sox fan of sorts. I think that's a pretty big hurdle for soccer or lacrosse or any 'growing' sport -- namely history and investment counts for a lot. There are a ton of baseball fans who pay no attention all year but walk around like peacocks for 3 months of' 'their team' is in the playoffs. It's because they still identify with the team they pay no attention to.

For soccer to reach and surpass baseball, people need to be invested in these MLS teams. I live in DC, I know people who attend the games and kids that like DC United but I'd still argue it is a long, long way from being inherently woven into the fabric of society the way baseball is.

I completely agree with you. But that's why I also keep pointing to the fact that MLS is only 20 years old. It hasn't really had enough time to make that sort of lasting impact, because the kids growing up on it are still growing up.

 

[CanadianSU]

If it was the badminton World Cup, Americans would still tune in to watch because they are playing in it... They also get off work. It's happening in Canada right now with Tennis. Eugenie Bouchard is doing very well in Wimbledon and people are calling in sick etc, not because they like Tennis, because they don't want to work...

I love soccer, but it will never grow in North America. Never.

Just my opinion.

 

[Millhouse]

People live in cities where these teams play. These games are family entertainment. That builds bonds. You're kind of underestimating the whole dynamic of why people go to sporting events. Why do we even have pro sports leagues for lacrosse, or indoor football, or indoor soccer, minor league hockey, etc.? Because people see them as good entertainment options.

i like going to rochester red wings games. not saying MLS isn't a good option for locals. i wish rochester got an MLS team. I like going to mid major games too.

 

[IthacaMatt]

OK, but what does that have do to with kids playing soccer related to TV audiences?

There's no correlation, just as there isn't for kids playing football and football TV ratings.

It's indirect, but clearly there is a correlation, or else the viewing numbers wouldn't keep going up.

An anecdote, with obviously no statistical significance, but here goes. One of my best friends is an avid major sports fan - although he goes against the grain and doesn't root for any home town/home state teams - he like the Orioles in baseball, Raiders in football, is a Syracuse basketball season ticket holder. Has always said he was bored to tears by soccer and couldn't give 2 flying farts about it.

He is the father of 4 girls, who played HS sports. One played soccer in college at a D III school, where she met her boyfriend, who was also a soccer player. They are now newlyweds.

I ask my friend Tom if he wants to come over to watch some soccer as Chelsea was progressing toward the Champions League finals. He declines, but says maybe he will come over for a World Cup game. So, we watch the Ghana game together, and by the end of the game, he is full-on rant mode - "We need a thunderbolt from Zeus (Zusi) !!", who then puts in the cross that Brooks heads in for the winner. Crazy celebration follows.

He comes back for the Portugal game. Another great time, marred only by Ronaldo's magic at the very end. But painful losses are what makes for true fans. If you haven't tasted disappointment, then you're not really a fan. So I ask him about the Germany game - he's in. We have a great time, scoreboard watching and rooting for Portugal over Ghana due to goal difference. And then finally, he's full bore crazy when it comes time for the Belgium game.

Will this friend watch an MLS game later this summer? If the Orioles are not on, and there's not a big golf tournament, maybe. Especially if he recognizes a couple of the players in the TV ads because he saw them in the World Cup.

That is how fan bases are grown - slowly and organically.

So let me tie this back to your original point - that having kids play soccer doesn't translate into watching soccer. He and his daughters shared the fun together. He was familiar with the rules because of having watched his daughters play all through high school, and one in college.

He mentioned to me that he thought the girls' game was pretty boring, but then he saw college boys playing and the speed and intensity of the game (in person) was a real eye-opener. He realized that it's a lot more competitive and there's a lot more going on than he originally thought. That's why he wanted to watch the games at my house during the World Cup, because he figured that watching with an experienced fan would give him new insights and appreciation for the game.

 

[Millhouse]

Ugh. OK.

we're not spring chickens here, we've heard that argument for 40 years. i think the people who made the same argument so long ago would've expected soccer to be further along if they were honest about it. this isn't the first generation of youth leaguers that have grown up

 

[IthacaMatt]

Baseball is popular with Latinos (a growing part of the population). That should help.

Fair point. Asians, too.