Dear american football...

[Guinness]

You'll be hard pressed to find any "die hard" baseball fans under the age of 40 unless they are Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, etc. fans that were generationally born into fan hood. Kids/young adults aren't looking for baseball on their own at this point. Again I ask, how many kids do you see in your neighborhood in the back yard with a baseball, bat and glove? How many times do you drive by a local baseball diamond and actually see people there?

I think part of that is driven by the change in parenting styles. When I was a kid my friends and I were all able to go the park on our own and play baseball. In today's world with kids staying closer to home and less free run baseball has suffered because of it.

 

[xc84]

How many more games does the NBA play than MLS? The average attendance on a per game basis has been well cited in this thread as giving MLS the edge over NBA.

How many single basketball games will sell more than 100,000 tickets? None.

That does not change the numbers. NBA draws 3.5X more. To say it is more popular than the NBA is ludicrous. Look at the TV revenue and salaries again ...which any league owner is more partial to than attendance. In addition, NBA games are played in an arena... soccer in stadiums. It's for that reason that no one who wants to be taken seriously would ever compare average attendance of the NFL (stadium) v. NBA (arena) and make a judgement solely on avg. game attendance.

When we stop having threads of "Soccer is popular, really!" then that will be a sign that maybe soccer has caught on as a major sport in the U.S. I recall back in the 70s how soccer was "on the verge of becoming a major U.S. sport" and how "backwards" the U.S. is because it wasn't already.

I am actually fine with soccer having a major presence if it ever happens just the same way I am fine with NASCAR. I don't go to or watch those events but if people like them, great. I really like to watch track and field but feel no need to insist that others should too.

 

[ImperialOrange]

I think part of that is driven by the change in parenting styles. When I was a kid my friends and I were all able to go the park on our own and play baseball. In today's world with kids staying closer to home and less free run baseball has suffered because of it.

Yeah but you could say the same about most sports. I used to play basketball at the park and we would run 4s or 5s for hours on end and you don't see that as often either. Rise of technology plays a big part as well. Kids don't have to look for or organize something to do. They don't even have to be in the same location to play video games against one another.

There are a TON of factors that go into all these respective sports vs their participation. Free time and money are at a premium for most families and in terms of your kids participation from cheap to expensive is soccer-basketball-baseball--football---hockey and from time consuming least to most soccer/basketball-football-baseball-hockey. I have the utmost respect for hockey parents knowing what goes into that.

 

[OttoMets]

But it can't tell you when the last time a right-handed hitter struck out with men on first and third on a Thursday prior to the All-Star break during an even year. Now can it?

That one made me laugh out loud. Thanks, Toga.

 

[Bortukal]

That does not change the numbers. NBA draws 3.5X more. To say it is more popular than the NBA is ludicrous. Look at the TV revenue and salaries again ...which any league owner is more partial to than attendance. In addition, NBA games are played in an arena... soccer in stadiums. It's for that reason that no one who wants to be taken seriously would ever compare average attendance of the NFL (stadium) v. NBA (arena) and make a judgement solely on avg. game attendance.

When we stop having threads of "Soccer is popular, really!" then that will be a sign that maybe soccer has caught on as a major sport in the U.S. I recall back in the 70s how soccer was "on the verge of becoming a major U.S. sport" and how "backwards" the U.S. is because it wasn't already.

I am actually fine with soccer having a major presence if it ever happens just the same way I am fine with NASCAR. I don't go to or watch those events but if people like them, great. I really like to watch track and field but feel no need to insist that others should too.

I don't think that anyone here is saying that soccer is more popular than the NBA; I know I'm not. The addition of expansion teams in NY, Atlanta and Orlando of course are only going to increase the total attendance figure for MLS. MLB total attendance dwarfs NFL, but I would never argue that MLB is more popular than NFL here. The thing then I suppose I don't understand about your argument is that per game average attendance is a meaningless metric but the total attendance figure is valid, despite the fact that there are differences in number of total events. Why is one a valid statistic and the other isn't? The numbers only disprove the assertion that "nobody like soccer" and that its a fringe sport nobody really cares about. The bottom line from all the data available is that people in this country will pay money to watch soccer in large numbers. I don't quite understand how people can continue to dismiss the torrid growth of MLS since 1994 to where it is today. Not to mention that unlike MLB, NFL, etc, MLS has competition within its own sport as games from professional leagues in England, Italy, Germany, Spain, etc. are all broadcast domestically, giving pro soccer fans viewing choices that other sports typically don't have.

 

[OrangePA]

That does not change the numbers. NBA draws 3.5X more. To say it is more popular than the NBA is ludicrous. Look at the TV revenue and salaries again ...which any league owner is more partial to than attendance. In addition, NBA games are played in an arena... soccer in stadiums. It's for that reason that no one who wants to be taken seriously would ever compare average attendance of the NFL (stadium) v. NBA (arena) and make a judgement solely on avg. game attendance.

When we stop having threads of "Soccer is popular, really!" then that will be a sign that maybe soccer has caught on as a major sport in the U.S. I recall back in the 70s how soccer was "on the verge of becoming a major U.S. sport" and how "backwards" the U.S. is because it wasn't already.

I am actually fine with soccer having a major presence if it ever happens just the same way I am fine with NASCAR. I don't go to or watch those events but if people like them, great. I really like to watch track and field but feel no need to insist that others should too.

Until the Finals, the NBA is pretty much unwatchable for me.

The regular season? I can't watch for longer than two minutes.

 

[Scooch]

FWIW, I think this has been a very good thread.

I'll lob a couple data points I am able to share into the discussion...

A very relevant measure is the % avid fan base for leagues and sports. Avid fans are what drive a sport on a day-to-day basis. Moderate and casual fans may dip in and out, but it's the avids that sustain a league in terms of core attendance, TV ratings, etc.

Knowing that, about one-third of Americans age 12+ are avid fans of the NFL. 2nd place is college football, which counts about one-quarter of Americans as avid fans. MLB, NBA and college hoops are in the 15-20% range. International Soccer and MLS in the 5-10% range.

So, this isn't entirely correlative to TV ratings and attendance, but it's useful in a directional sense. Soccer is on the rise, legitimately, and there is lots of evidence to support that. We *also* are a sports-obsessed nation that has a VERY crowded sports landscape. There are decades of fan behavior in place that make NFL, CFB, NBA, MLB and CBB major sports -- and keep in mind (especially on this board) that college sports is an incredibly unique phenomena in the US -- what other country cares about college kids playing sports like we do? A: None.

The notion that any of the 5 majors will see a rapid, massive decline in interest is not based in reality. Since '94 the same pattern of soccer fandom plays out... large spike in interest during the World Cup, then a quick evaporation of that interest, but then the overall soccer interest level resets itself to a slightly higher place than pre-World Cup. Visualize it like the steps on the side of the Schine Student Center: long with a small lift between them.

 

[Bayside44]

How many more games does the NBA play than MLS? The average attendance on a per game basis has been well cited in this thread as giving MLS the edge over NBA.

How many single basketball games will sell more than 100,000 tickets? None.

Compare cost per ticket - you can pretty much do anything for $30 at an MLS park. And the FF at Jerry World hit some ridiculous fan #s.

 

[ImperialOrange]

That does not change the numbers. NBA draws 3.5X more. To say it is more popular than the NBA is ludicrous. Look at the TV revenue and salaries again ...which any league owner is more partial to than attendance. In addition, NBA games are played in an arena... soccer in stadiums. It's for that reason that no one who wants to be taken seriously would ever compare average attendance of the NFL (stadium) v. NBA (arena) and make a judgement solely on avg. game attendance.

To say that MLS is more popular than the NBA is ludicrous... to say that soccer is more popular than basketball probably isn't as much. Would take a bit more leg work to compare than anyone really feels like doing but you would have to combine american viewship for NBA/College/foreign leagues vs MLS/college/foreign leagues. The numbers would skew foreign v domestic but the overall numbers might not be far off.

 

[xc84]

I don't think that anyone here is saying that soccer is more popular than the NBA; I know I'm not. The addition of expansion teams in NY, Atlanta and Orlando of course are only going to increase the total attendance figure for MLS. MLB total attendance dwarfs NFL, but I would never argue that MLB is more popular than NFL here. The thing then I suppose I don't understand about your argument is that per game average attendance is a meaningless metric but the total attendance figure is valid, despite the fact that there are differences in number of total events. Why is one a valid statistic and the other isn't? The numbers only disprove the assertion that "nobody like soccer" and that its a fringe sport nobody really cares about. The bottom line from all the data available is that people in this country will pay money to watch soccer in large numbers. I don't quite understand how people can continue to dismiss the torrid growth of MLS since 1994 to where it is today. Not to mention that unlike MLB, NFL, etc, MLS has competition within its own sport as games from professional leagues in England, Italy, Germany, Spain, etc. are all broadcast domestically, giving pro soccer fans viewing choices that other sports typically don't have.

Because it is about supply and demand. If I have a league with 2 teams that play each ($1 to get in) other once and the game draws 50,000 fans, does that mean something? Would that mean it's more popular than the NBA or that it outdraws the NBA?

I didn't say your statistics were not valid. Of course they are valid. They show soccer is gaining in popularity. I can't question that. It's just that soccer has a long way to go before it becomes mainstream.

 

[Bayside44]

I'm 30 years old and played baseball until Jr Midget level which IIRC was 15 or 16 years old. As of 5 years ago the area I played for as well as some I played against no longer even have jr midget teams. Even when I was playing ~2000 most teams had a tough time fielding enough players for a team. As youth interest dries up, viewership will as well. I was a Red Sox fan, and still would claim them if asked but couldnt tell you much of anything about the team the last few years. The sport itself doesn't translate well to TV which is what drives $$$$$ and fan hood. The biggest baseball fan I know is my 80 y/o grandmother and my 70 y/o uncle. I work in an office full of 20, 30, and 40 somethings and you don't hear much baseball talked about nor do you ever see it on the break room tv. Football, basketball, soccer, and occassionally hockey you do.

You'll be hard pressed to find any "die hard" baseball fans under the age of 40 unless they are Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, etc. fans that were generationally born into fan hood. Kids/young adults aren't looking for baseball on their own at this point. Again I ask, how many kids do you see in your neighborhood in the back yard with a baseball, bat and glove? How many times do you drive by a local baseball diamond and actually see people there?

I was a baseball fan far before I was a soccer guy but watching/following both sports aren't even on the same planet as far as excitement/drama go.

Where do you live? I have Nats seasons and the park is packed with young adults and now kids in the summer. I have competing little leagues in my area that recruit against each other, and even with all the kids playing lax baseball is still huge. My son's friends all play baseball.

 

[Millhouse]

American Football definitely has a shelf life, I would believe that the sport will be just about dead in 40-50 years, they will continue to water down the rules as years go by and people will lose interest. The best athletes will look elsewhere as well

people might still prefer flag football to soccer in 50 years when it comes down to it. maybe football just turns into a 7 on 7 throwing and catching game which still might be more popular than a kicking game.

they have watered down the rules continuously in football and it keeps getting more popular.

 

[OttoMets]

I actually watch more MLS than EPL. It gets really exciting sometimes. The atmospheres are great, too. I've been to a couple FC Dallas games and I went to the MLS championship back in...2006, maybe? Whenever it was in Dallas...and it's so much fun in person.

Same deal - I went to the conference championship at RFK in 2006 or 2007; it was electric. It doesn't come across as well on television, but being there was awesome. A lot of hipsters, but still - great times.

 

[Millhouse]

A very relevant measure is the % avid fan base for leagues and sports. Avid fans are what drive a sport on a day-to-day basis. Moderate and casual fans may dip in and out, but it's the avids that sustain a league in terms of core attendance, TV ratings, etc.

Knowing that, about one-third of Americans age 12+ are avid fans of the NFL. 2nd place is college football, which counts about one-quarter of Americans as avid fans. MLB, NBA and college hoops are in the 15-20% range. International Soccer and MLS in the 5-10% range.
.

how does mls compare to nhl if you don't mind me asking

i love hockey but i understand that lots of people think that a sport on skates where half the goals are accidents is dumb and less weird than a sport where people can't use their hands.

soccer could hurt the NHL (especially since the NHL plays in June stupidly)

maybe soccer pushes the NHL back to finish in the winter and spring where it should be

 

[xc84]

Until the Finals, the NBA is pretty much unwatchable for me.

The regular season? I can't watch for longer than two minutes.

I don't watch much NBA either but of course, we all watch SU hoops. Let's compare college soccer attendance with college hoops.

 

[ImperialOrange]

Compare cost per ticket - you can pretty much do anything for $30 at an MLS park. And the FF at Jerry World hit some ridiculous fan #s.

I think some sports are walking a fine line before pricing themselves out of the market. NFL teams only have 8 home games a year so they can gouge like crazy while us po' folks watch on tv but NBA is suffering a bit due to number of games X pricing. Most NBA teams only have good crowds when the team is good/very good, NFL teams have to be absolutely horrid to have bad attendence and even then fans are handcuffed because if they drop their season tix there are waiting lists a mile long for most teams.

 

[texascpa]

Every time someone says that football has reached its peak, the ratings climb even higher. New records are set every single year and even the NFL preseason games that so many people want gone regularly put up 20+ ratings. The average american sports fan is counting down the days until training camp starts.

That and the fantasy football draft.

 

[Scooch]

how does mls compare to nhl if you don't mind me asking

i love hockey but i understand that lots of people think that a sport on skates where half the goals are accidents is dumb and less weird than a sport where people can't use their hands.

soccer could hurt the NHL (especially since the NHL plays in June stupidly)

maybe soccer pushes the NHL back to finish in the winter and spring where it should be

I can't post specific numbers (sorry!) but NHL is about 25% higher than MLS for avid fans. Not as big as you might think given the history of each league. The NHL is not, and never has been, a "major" sport in the US. It's a huge niche sport, and is major in certain regions. There are 5 national, major, US leagues: NFL, MLB, NBA, CFB and CBB.

I wouldn't pit sports against each other the way people are in this thread, though. Interest in sports is not zero-sum, which is why polling about people's absolute favorite isn't entirely useful. There is opportunity for one to grow without necessarily causing another to decline.

 

[jekelish]

I don't watch much NBA either but of course, we all watch SU hoops. Let's compare college soccer attendance with college hoops.

That's not particularly fair either, since the most talented young players are generally going to be plucked by the newly forming MLS academies or if they are REALLY good enough, development academies overseas. For instance, one of our top young prospects is an 18 year old kid named Lynden Gooch, who is already playing in Sunderland's developmental team in the EPL.

But obviously, college soccer attendance is nowhere near college hoops attendance. As of the 2012 season, the D1 national leader was UC Santa Barbara, which averaged 5,542 per game (UConn, surprisingly, is #2). Obviously, the stadiums are not as large, there isn't as much talent, and it's just not a commercial college sport like football or basketball. That said, looking at the figures, the attendance numbers are steadily increasing and have been for the last 16 years. Since 1998, the average attendance leader has risen by nearly 3,000 fans per game.

 

[ImperialOrange]

Where do you live? I have Nats seasons and the park is packed with young adults and now kids in the summer. I have competing little leagues in my area that recruit against each other, and even with all the kids playing lax baseball is still huge. My son's friends all play baseball.

Pennsyltucky, live ~1 hour from Philly and work ~45 mins from Philly. Pretty much the epitome of fair weather sports fans but most the kids around me play football, soccer, and/or basketball.

 

[rrlbees]

[*]Now here's my biggie that many will think is heresy but...not only is soccer not going to grow in the USA but it is not as popular as it was a few years ago. First hand experience is from my 14 year old son who still plays soccer and also refs younger kids. There aren't as many teams as there used to be. The local soccer facility that has about 20 fields is 1/2 empty during the busy season. This time of year it is rare to see even one game going on. A few years ago when both my kids played it was full, all the time. Our baseball organization is actually growing and lacrosse is really taking off. Also, our high school has not fielded a freshman soccer team for about 4 years dye to not enough interest from over 2600 students.

My first hand experience is just the opposite. Soccer, and to a lesser extent lacrosse, is growing like wild fire. Youth football and little league baseball are taking hits. Organizations in those sports are either merging or seeing big reductions in participants and teams. While soccer has seen a large growth in participants, teams and new organizations. What has taken a hit is what I will call youth recreational soccer. Everyone is moving to the club teams and organizations. There is now even a program, which too is hugely popular, calked Little Kickers. The age group is 2-5. Yes, 2 year olds. This growth all started a few years ago so has nothing to do with the WC.

We've also seen cuts in some HS's at the freshman and modified team levels but it is all about budget cuts and not interest.

 

[jekelish]

Pennsyltucky, live ~1 hour from Philly and work ~45 mins from Philly. Pretty much the epitome of fair weather sports fans but most the kids around me play football, soccer, and/or basketball.

It really is a regional thing. Living in Texas, it's obviously mainly football, but I'd say it's a pretty even split between soccer and baseball, at least around me. Obviously, that's thanks in very large part to the Hispanic population down here.

 

[xc84]

That's not particularly fair either, since the most talented young players are generally going to be plucked by the newly forming MLS academies or if they are REALLY good enough, development academies overseas. For instance, one of our top young prospects is an 18 year old kid named Lynden Gooch, who is already playing in Sunderland's developmental team in the EPL.

But obviously, college soccer attendance is nowhere near college hoops attendance. As of the 2012 season, the D1 national leader was UC Santa Barbara, which averaged 5,542 per game (UConn, surprisingly, is #2). Obviously, the stadiums are not as large, there isn't as much talent, and it's just not a commercial college sport like football or basketball. That said, looking at the figures, the attendance numbers are steadily increasing and have been for the last 16 years. Since 1998, the average attendance leader has risen by nearly 3,000 fans per game.

I agree that soccer is gaining in popularity but I think you just showed why it is not close to hoops in the U.S. yet. As you stated, college hoops= big business. If you look at the big basketball picture in the US, it includes NBA + college. No matter how you slice it, U.S. soccer is dwarfed by it.

 

[Millhouse]

I can't post specific numbers (sorry!) but NHL is about 25% higher than MLS for avid fans. Not as big as you might think given the history of each league. The NHL is not, and never has been, a "major" sport in the US. It's a huge niche sport, and is major in certain regions. There are 5 national, major, US leagues: NFL, MLB, NBA, CFB and CBB.

I wouldn't pit sports against each other the way people are in this thread, though. Interest in sports is not zero-sum, which is why polling about people's absolute favorite isn't entirely useful. There is opportunity for one to grow without necessarily causing another to decline.

thanks. sounds about right. that's way more specific than i ever expected

i think it is somewhat zero sum though. especially in the same season. EPL being early on Saturdays helps them from avoiding direct competition with more popular sports. i can get away with putting it on before we really get going for the day. i was always jealous of west coast people who can watch games first thing in the morning. but i'm never going to be avid. need a home team for that. and that's where the zero sum comes in - entertainment dollars split too many ways

 

[Scooch]

thanks. sounds about right. that's way more specific than i ever expected

i think it is somewhat zero sum though. especially in the same season. EPL being early on Saturdays helps them from avoiding direct competition with more popular sports. i can get away with putting it on before we really get going for the day. i was always jealous of west coast people who can watch games first thing in the morning. but i'm never going to be avid. need a home team for that. and that's where the zero sum comes in - entertainment dollars split too many ways

Ratings for EPL are the stuff of urban legend though. Never before have 0.2's been so lauded.