Defense and rebounding is off the charts | Syracusefan.com

Defense and rebounding is off the charts

omniorange

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Great to see the d working since the o has gone south somewhat. Can't wait until we have both going at a high level.

LGO!!!

Cheers,
Neil
 

rosconey

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weakest front court ever at syracuse and you guys gush over them:rolling:
add in a backcourt that consists of a shooter that cant buy a shot and a point who brings the ball up too slow-

going to be a long season:bat:
 

CaptainJ

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I think the hustle for loose balls was amazing today, the energy seemed amazing, even going to the floor...the first half especially. Also the volley ball type rebounds with at least one tap first...Grant was a beast for awhile!!
 

Knicks411

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I think I heard somewhere that we grab 40% of our own misses, which is astronomically high if you ask me.

Yup, coming into today it was 40.2%, which was 9th in the country. Today we were right there, at 40.9%.
And so far, at least, this is the best defensive reboundign team we've had in a decade. Still 130th in the country, but I'll take it
 

moqui

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Yup, coming into today it was 40.2%, which was 9th in the country. Today we were right there, at 40.9%.
And so far, at least, this is the best defensive reboundign team we've had in a decade. Still 130th in the country, but I'll take it

yeah, this is huge. In the past, JB has lived with poor defensive rebounding because the offensive rebounding and turnovers have more than made up for it. So, if SU can just be an average team on the defensive glass, that is like the zone on steroids. And, this year, we have it.

For the previous 11 seasons, SU was allowing opponents second chances on 35.75% of their shots - it has almost always been below (and sometimes way below) the D1 average. So far this year, it is down to 30.5%, which as Knicks points out is not great, but it is better than the D1 average of 31.7%. Add to that, our own offensive rebounding is 40.2% and out turnover percentage is 25.4% . Both of those figures are in the national top ten and also the best we have done in a decade (aside from a 40.9 OR pct in 2005). In a good year, an effective zone and offensive glass work gives SU more possessions than opponents; this year the addition of competent defensive glass work is giving us lots more possessions, so that even when teams outshoot us by percentage (as St. Francis, Minnnesota, Cal, Baylor, Miami and UNC all have done), SU is still winning because we are getting so many more opportunities.
 

Knicks411

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yeah, this is huge. In the past, JB has lived with poor defensive rebounding because the offensive rebounding and turnovers have more than made up for it. So, if SU can just be an average team on the defensive glass, that is like the zone on steroids. And, this year, we have it.

Of course, the funny thing is, our defense is 14th this year, after being 8th last year, and basically in the back half of the top 20 the three years before that. (17, 18, and 20). So the defensive rebounding is a lot better, but the overall defense is very much the same, give or take. And to take it a step further, the best defensive rebounding team we've had in that period coincided with the worst defensive efficiency we've had.

But anyway, a couple of observations. Our FG% defense isn't quite up to the standards we've set the last few years. Effective FG% allowed of 48.3; we've only been above 47% one other time, the 2008 season where we were great on the defensive glass. We're allowing about 48% on 2 pointers, which would be really high for us, 43-45% has been a more likely outcome for us the last few years. Our block rate is 4th in the country, pretty much in line with what we normally are (btw, this is a really underrated thing, Ken Pom has been tracking this stuff for 12 years, we've been in the top 7 in block% 10 of the 12 years); block% isn't a perfect proxy for 2 point FG but I bet it is a pretty good one. I don't see much reason to think we'll be allowing 48% on 2 pointers all year long. We are fouling less than we did last year, but significantly more than we have in the past.

But to me, what it comes down to, is I expect our FG% to improve on defense. If the defensive rebounding improvement is legit, we might be able to get the defense into the top 10, which is really where you want to be to win a title. (For all the talk about the zone and how awesome we are at defense, we've had one top 10 defense in the last 12 years; 8th last year.) My guess is we won't finish the year 4th in TO%, but I bet top 20 or so is a safe bet. (One last parenthetical aside; it is crazy how many more turnovers we've forced the last 2 plus years. From 2003 to 2009 we were just as likely to be int he 200's than the 100's in TO%, and never in the top 100. In 2010 and 2011, we cracked the top 100, but still in the 70-100 range, solid, but nothing special. Last 3 years; 10th, 23rd, and 4th. What makes this even funnier is that this has coincided with us turning the ball over a lot less on offense as well; so like Moqui said, we really win the possession battle there. I'd also make the argument that considering how we aren't great on the defensive glass usually, those turnovers forced are even more important because they keep teams off the offensive gflass)
 

RF2044

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Of course, the funny thing is, our defense is 14th this year, after being 8th last year, and basically in the back half of the top 20 the three years before that. (17, 18, and 20). So the defensive rebounding is a lot better, but the overall defense is very much the same, give or take. And to take it a step further, the best defensive rebounding team we've had in that period coincided with the worst defensive efficiency we've had.


Last year's defense [in large part to the enormous, athletic guards we featured] is probably an unfair comparison to baseline against, as MCW was perhaps the perfect backcourt component for up front.

I'm curious to see whether / how much the team defense can improve from here. We're better than we were at the beginning of the season [to be expected, with many new components]. Are they maxed out, or can they take it up a notch by the postseason?
 

moqui

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Of course, the funny thing is, our defense is 14th this year, after being 8th last year, and basically in the back half of the top 20 the three years before that. (17, 18, and 20). So the defensive rebounding is a lot better, but the overall defense is very much the same, give or take. And to take it a step further, the best defensive rebounding team we've had in that period coincided with the worst defensive efficiency we've had.

But anyway, a couple of observations. Our FG% defense isn't quite up to the standards we've set the last few years. Effective FG% allowed of 48.3; we've only been above 47% one other time, the 2008 season where we were great on the defensive glass. We're allowing about 48% on 2 pointers, which would be really high for us, 43-45% has been a more likely outcome for us the last few years. Our block rate is 4th in the country, pretty much in line with what we normally are (btw, this is a really underrated thing, Ken Pom has been tracking this stuff for 12 years, we've been in the top 7 in block% 10 of the 12 years); block% isn't a perfect proxy for 2 point FG but I bet it is a pretty good one. I don't see much reason to think we'll be allowing 48% on 2 pointers all year long. We are fouling less than we did last year, but significantly more than we have in the past.

But to me, what it comes down to, is I expect our FG% to improve on defense. If the defensive rebounding improvement is legit, we might be able to get the defense into the top 10, which is really where you want to be to win a title. (For all the talk about the zone and how awesome we are at defense, we've had one top 10 defense in the last 12 years; 8th last year.) My guess is we won't finish the year 4th in TO%, but I bet top 20 or so is a safe bet. (One last parenthetical aside; it is crazy how many more turnovers we've forced the last 2 plus years. From 2003 to 2009 we were just as likely to be int he 200's than the 100's in TO%, and never in the top 100. In 2010 and 2011, we cracked the top 100, but still in the 70-100 range, solid, but nothing special. Last 3 years; 10th, 23rd, and 4th. What makes this even funnier is that this has coincided with us turning the ball over a lot less on offense as well; so like Moqui said, we really win the possession battle there. I'd also make the argument that considering how we aren't great on the defensive glass usually, those turnovers forced are even more important because they keep teams off the offensive gflass)

yep, the defense has not been as good at shutting opponents down as others in previous years, but where it is excelling is in giving us those additional possessions - the defense is helping the offense more than it has in the past. And even when its not fast breaking, the offense is capitalizing on those possessions like never before - our 118.6 offensive percentage is more than 2 full points better than the best offense we have fielded in a dozen years - including the national title team and the high powered 2009 squad.
 

Knicks411

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Last year's defense [in large part to the enormous, athletic guards we featured] is probably an unfair comparison to baseline against, as MCW was perhaps the perfect backcourt component for up front.

I'm curious to see whether / how much the team defense can improve from here. We're better than we were at the beginning of the season [to be expected, with many new components]. Are they maxed out, or can they take it up a notch by the postseason?

I think the defense has it in them to take it up another level (so maybe so more spots in the rankings). Last year they allowed 42.6% 2 point defense, which is crazy, and I bet a lot of that is cause, as you said, MCW was so long at the top of the zone, and that is something we won't be able to replicate. But I really think the FG defense improves a little, it just doesn't strike me as likely for a team to be one of the best shot blockign teams and to allow 48% on 2 pointers.
And the defense has taken it up a notch the last few games; Nova is a really good offense, below 1 point per possession. And all 3 ACC opponents have been held below a point per trip.
 

rosconey

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i bet our d has slipped because our guards spend too much time worrying about shots never dropping ever again and the other because he aint too court smart and has to take his time getting the ball up court because dribbling the ball is a lot harder than dribbling spit for him-
grant cant find a legit barber and has lost sleep because of it -baye moose wants to be a pro wastler-cj is scared about his game translating to the nba and christmas always wants to open packages and dreams about them constantly(ups fetish ) - coleman found out he really is derricks kid and the freshman are just that freshman
 
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teamco

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Let me just note that Rak is playing with a different look in his eyes this year.
The kid never seemed to care before. Now he looks like HE CARES!
"HEY, GET OFF MY LAWN YOU KIDS!"
 

General20

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I think the defense has it in them to take it up another level (so maybe so more spots in the rankings). Last year they allowed 42.6% 2 point defense, which is crazy, and I bet a lot of that is cause, as you said, MCW was so long at the top of the zone, and that is something we won't be able to replicate. But I really think the FG defense improves a little, it just doesn't strike me as likely for a team to be one of the best shot blockign teams and to allow 48% on 2 pointers.
And the defense has taken it up a notch the last few games; Nova is a really good offense, below 1 point per possession. And all 3 ACC opponents have been held below a point per trip.

I think you are spot on, and we are already seeing what you are predicting. Our defense has been noticeably better in the ACC than it was OOC and the stats are starting to bear that out. My guess, as well as yours, is that they continue to do so.
 

cto

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Don't forget about steals. We are 13th is steals/per/game and 4th in steals/turnovers.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/statistics/team/_/stat/steals/sort/avgSteals

Tyler and Trevor rank 12th and 29th in steals/per/game

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-bas..._/stat/steals/year/2014/seasontype/2/group/50

And Trevor apparently ranks 3rd in steals/turnovers.

In steals/personal fouls, we rank 3rd. http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/statistics/team/_/stat/steals/sort/stealFoulRatio

And Trevor appears to rank first with a 2.64 ratio.

And we also average the most steals per game in the ACC.. and have the best turnover ratio in the conference... and Tyler and Trevor lead the ACC in steals. http://www.theacc.com/#!/stats?sport=m-baskbl
 

Knicks411

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Yeah, steals are huge, 3rd in s teal % (and our games have been so slow, so the totals underrate how many we've been getting.

So not only do w ehave a lot of turnovers forced, but there are also live ball, leading to buckets the other way.
 

moqui

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Yeah, steals are huge, 3rd in s teal % (and our games have been so slow, so the totals underrate how many we've been getting.

So not only do w ehave a lot of turnovers forced, but there are also live ball, leading to buckets the other way.
yep . . . that's what separates defense that's just good defense (e.g., Wisconsin or Virginia) from defense that is both good D and also helps the offense (e.g., Syracuse or Louisville)
 

Flacusian

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I think you are spot on, and we are already seeing what you are predicting. Our defense has been noticeably better in the ACC than it was OOC and the stats are starting to bear that out. My guess, as well as yours, is that they continue to do so.


I agree 100% with this as well. I think we are seeing the emergence of this years brand of uber Boheimeian 2-3 zone as we begin our in Conference campaign. With the personnel changes from last year the metrics and the particular areas and characteristics in which we excel will change as well. As each player becomes more comfortable with the role they provide we will see improvement defensively. That was the point I was touching on in my recent post http://syracusefan.com/threads/this-team-showed-us-their-version-of-zone-excellence-today.65842/

If we are going to win a championship this year defense will be the definitive component of the team that will get us there. We've got a really good blend of talent which is willing to play the roles they are asked toward the common goal of winning through commitment to defense.

If the will had been there to do it, we could have held Carolina to an incredibly low point total. As it was it was their lowest offensive output in like... well, since forever in the modern era. That team may be in some disarray but the manner in which we muted their offensive output was pretty admirable.
 

Knicks411

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yep . . . that's what separates defense that's just good defense (e.g., Wisconsin or Virginia) from defense that is both good D and also helps the offense (e.g., Syracuse or Louisville)

Yeah I am surprised there isn't more discussion of this in general.

UVA is 114th in the country in steal rate. They are #2 in defensive efficiency and no doubt they are awesome, but if you have 2 roughly equivalent defenses, I'll take the one that forces more steals most every day of the week.
To pay devils advocate against myself, I wonder if teams that force more steals are more or less volatile defensively than teams that don't force as many; what happens when the turnovers aren't there.
 

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