Do the math

[SBU72]

During today's press conference, Gov. Cuomo said the state can do 20k worth of testing (for Corona and antibodies combined) a day with a goal of 40k at a future date. At the top end, that's 4 mil in 100 days (3 + months) With 19 million in NYS alone thats 475 days! So if you want to test 10% of the population, it'll take almost a month and a half to do. AT the highest rate of testing. I guess you could statistically model with a lower number but can you modelwhat a safe number is? So consider what still has to be done within NYS alone before schools can reopen. For sports to return.

 

[Capt. Tuttle]

I am of the opinion that concentrating on treatment, at first, rather than prevention, is the most pragmatic. Those with risk factors will need to be much more careful, as will those around them. Otherwise, treat the symptoms when infected. Eventually, herd immunity and eventually some preventative measures will be the norm, with treatment for what slips through.
We cannot stop everything because a few people (relative to the entire population) will not survive an infection. We don't shelter in place for any other infectious deadly disease.

 

[upperdeck]

yup. treatment will come long before vaccine..

 

[dan7800]

yup. treatment will come long before vaccine..

Plus treatment is a bit safer as you don't need to "impact" everyone, only those who have it.

 

[SBU72]

I am of the opinion that concentrating on treatment, at first, rather than prevention, is the most pragmatic. Those with risk factors will need to be much more careful, as will those around them. Otherwise, treat the symptoms when infected. Eventually, herd immunity and eventually some preventative measures will be the norm, with treatment for what slips through.
We cannot stop everything because a few people (relative to the entire population) will not survive an infection. We don't shelter in place for any other infectious deadly disease.

Have you ever seen another disease fill NYC hospitals to overflowing? And realise that the actual curve is much, much lower than CDC & federal projections. So far...

 

[Fly Rodder]

Dunning-Kruger is getting a tremendous workout these last few months.

I guess you could statistically model with a lower number but can you model what a safe number is? So consider what still has to be done within NYS alone before schools can reopen. For sports to return.

The threshold has to do with the ratio of positives to number of tests. There's some WHO and CDC papers about it. I think its 10%. South Korea has a ratio of around 1% positive, so they are better able to track down and isolate folks who are sick or have been exposed to prevent spread without having to resort to blunt force measures like social restrictions. The US is currently around 20%.

 

[SUGIANT]

As someone that is autoimmune compromised I would hope testing is at least geared to us. Testing is about suspecting you have the disease anyway isn’t it? I guess at least right now. You will still be talking a very large death count regardless, that’s the people dying more now anyway.

 

[CuseFaninVT]

Dunning-Kruger is getting a tremendous workout these last few months.

The threshold has to do with the ratio of positives to number of tests. There's some WHO and CDC papers about it. I think its 10%. South Korea has a ratio of around 1% positive, so they are better able to track down and isolate folks who are sick or have been exposed to prevent spread without having to resort to blunt force measures like social restrictions. The US is currently around 20%.

I think implementing serious contract tracing and using those 40K per day tests on those identified as having been in contact with known cases is likely more 'doable' than total testing statewide, right?

 

[OrlandoCuse]

During today's press conference, Gov. Cuomo said the state can do 20k worth of testing (for Corona and antibodies combined) a day with a goal of 40k at a future date. At the top end, that's 4 mil in 100 days (3 + months) With 19 million in NYS alone thats 475 days! So if you want to test 10% of the population, it'll take almost a month and a half to do. AT the highest rate of testing. I guess you could statistically model with a lower number but can you modelwhat a safe number is? So consider what still has to be done within NYS alone before schools can reopen. For sports to return.

A statistically significant sample would be anything above 1,000 (could actually be lower), but the key is having a RANDOMIZED sample for testing. None of the testing that has occurred has been randomized. It’s all skewed because they’re only testing symptomatic and other individuals in key positions that came into contact with known cases.

 

[SUbear]

A statistically significant sample would be anything above 1,000 (could actually be lower), but the key is having a RANDOMIZED sample for testing. None of the testing that has occurred has been randomized. It’s all skewed because they’re only testing symptomatic and other individuals in key positions that came into contact with known cases.

Testing for Covid19 is a red herring. It prevents nothing and only gives you a snap shot in time of the infected. Testing negative today does not tell you or anyone you will not be infected tomorrow. The only testing that would be really meaningful is a reliable antibody test that could give you a statistical breakdown of those who have acquired immunity or at least are highly resistant.
A database of these people would be very valuable for both starting up normalcy, and as a source of potential antibody donors for the people made severely ill.
A vaccine will be the only thing that can prevent this disease, we all have different ideas how long this may take if at all, Obviously better sooner than later if found safe and effective.

 

[pfister1]

Testing for Covid19 is a red herring. It prevents nothing and only gives you a snap shot in time of the infected. Testing negative today does not tell you or anyone you will not be infected tomorrow. The only testing that would be really meaningful is a reliable antibody test that could give you a statistical breakdown of those who have acquired immunity or at least are highly resistant.
A database of these people would be very valuable for both starting up normalcy, and as a source of potential antibody donors for the people made severely ill.
A vaccine will be the only thing that can prevent this disease, we all have different ideas how long this may take if at all, Obviously better sooner than later if found safe and effective.

And we aren’t even sure that immunity as a result of prior exposure exists, that’s a best guess.

 

[Nicknack]

Sweet, a redux of "IMO College Basketball is in serious jeopardy of not having a season at least the fall semester" thread. This will end well.

 

[Chris02M]

During today's press conference, Gov. Cuomo said the state can do 20k worth of testing (for Corona and antibodies combined) a day with a goal of 40k at a future date. At the top end, that's 4 mil in 100 days (3 + months) With 19 million in NYS alone thats 475 days! So if you want to test 10% of the population, it'll take almost a month and a half to do. AT the highest rate of testing. I guess you could statistically model with a lower number but can you modelwhat a safe number is? So consider what still has to be done within NYS alone before schools can reopen. For sports to return.

they are not going to wait that long to reopen schools or sports. Ill concede schools wont reopen this year but that will be to gives schools time to plan to open in the fall semi normal

 

[Briancuse]

they are not going to wait that long to reopen schools or sports. Ill concede schools wont reopen this year but that will be to gives schools time to plan to open in the fall semi normal

With distance learning and the end of the year just about here there is no need to. They have to get them open in September.

 

[SUbear]

And we aren’t even sure that immunity as a result of prior exposure exists, that’s a best guess.

That would be where the effective part applies. But the likelihood is higher than a guess.
You do understand that most people recover from this disease, and that recovery is largely based on them no longer being susceptible to the virus. If no immunity developes it would be highly unlikely anyone would recover.

 

[SBU72]

they are not going to wait that long to reopen schools or sports. Ill concede schools wont reopen this year but that will be to gives schools time to plan to open in the fall semi normal

Report on Rochester evening news discussed that some private colleges are already considering not opening for the fall semester.

 

[SBU72]

A statistically significant sample would be anything above 1,000 (could actually be lower), but the key is having a RANDOMIZED sample for testing. None of the testing that has occurred has been randomized. It’s all skewed because they’re only testing symptomatic and other individuals in key positions that came into contact with known cases.

Actually random testing started over the weekend. A Wegmans in Rochester did 100 one day and 50 the next. The only criteria I heard of was general location, ie 60% in NYC area where biggest outbreak is/was.

Really folks I want this over. I just don't want to pre-emptively change direction. Remember its not just your own life but lives of others.

 

[Sudano]

Report on Rochester evening news discussed that some private colleges are already considering not opening for the fall semester.

All colleges have to consider everything so far in the future. Everything's on the table.

 

[Sudano]

Testing for Covid19 is a red herring. It prevents nothing and only gives you a snap shot in time of the infected. Testing negative today does not tell you or anyone you will not be infected tomorrow. The only testing that would be really meaningful is a reliable antibody test that could give you a statistical breakdown of those who have acquired immunity or at least are highly resistant.
A database of these people would be very valuable for both starting up normalcy, and as a source of potential antibody donors for the people made severely ill.
A vaccine will be the only thing that can prevent this disease, we all have different ideas how long this may take if at all, Obviously better sooner than later if found safe and effective.

That is a limited view of the total scope of the steps needed to slowly open now and open more at later date.
Continue Physical distancing V2.0. Allow some businesses to open who don't work closely or can prove they have a good plan to physically distance. Wear masks. Contact tracing to the best of our ability and use isolation and quarantine for those who are notified. Use random covid immunity testing to find out herd immunity and that will influence who, what, where can open. Now symptomatic covid testing is very limited but useful to know who has it and quickly notify contacts. Not exact due to being contagious before symptomatic no longer 7 days but it seems 2-3 days. Continue high risk individuals quarantine. Not perfect but this helps 30-40% but then again we only open 20-30% anyway. Over the next month along with worldwide testing over last 5 months we should have a broader idea of what treatments have promise and those who don't. Continue all hands on deck working on treatments and vaccine. Over time when we sharpen a few successful treatments and have it in enough quantities then we further open the spigot over the summer. Vaccine 12-18 months from time of start we're already 2 months in and if we can cut a few months off that we could have it late 2020 early 2021? So the growth of knowledge and what works and what doesn't we should have a much better plan later this year on how to handle covid19 and minimize or eliminate its negative effects.

 

[orangebabe]

I am of the opinion that concentrating on treatment, at first, rather than prevention, is the most pragmatic. Those with risk factors will need to be much more careful, as will those around them. Otherwise, treat the symptoms when infected. Eventually, herd immunity and eventually some preventative measures will be the norm, with treatment for what slips through.
We cannot stop everything because a few people (relative to the entire population) will not survive an infection. We don't shelter in place for any other infectious deadly disease.

Treatment in conjunction with preventive measures, i.e., wearing masks at all times, proper hand washing, keeping social distance and keeping those with compromised health conditions at home for awhile. Also better testing that allows us to know who has already been infected and basically can be out is a plus, but I am not sure that's even available yet???

 

[SUbear]

That is a limited view of the total scope of the steps needed to slowly open now and open more at later date.
Continue Physical distancing V2.0. Allow some businesses to open who don't work closely or can prove they have a good plan to physically distance. Wear masks. Contact tracing to the best of our ability and use isolation and quarantine for those who are notified. Use random covid immunity testing to find out herd immunity and that will influence who, what, where can open. Now symptomatic covid testing is very limited but useful to know who has it and quickly notify contacts. Not exact due to being contagious before symptomatic no longer 7 days but it seems 2-3 days. Continue high risk individuals quarantine. Not perfect but this helps 30-40% but then again we only open 20-30% anyway. Over the next month along with worldwide testing over last 5 months we should have a broader idea of what treatments have promise and those who don't. Continue all hands on deck working on treatments and vaccine. Over time when we sharpen a few successful treatments and have it in enough quantities then we further open the spigot over the summer. Vaccine 12-18 months from time of start we're already 2 months in and if we can cut a few months off that we could have it late 2020 early 2021? So the growth of knowledge and what works and what doesn't we should have a much better plan later this year on how to handle covid19 and minimize or eliminate its negative effects.

Interesting but I made no comments about any of what you just lectured on, either in favor or against. Thanks for the opinions though.

 

[Sudano]

Interesting but I made no comments about any of what you just lectured on, either in favor or against. Thanks for the opinions though.

No lecture, just points. I guess we're all sensitive. No need to thank me it's assumed, since we are all participating in a worthwhile exchange of ideas so important in a democracy.

 

[Capt. Tuttle]

Have you ever seen another disease fill NYC hospitals to overflowing? And realise that the actual curve is much, much lower than CDC & federal projections. So far...

Of course, being more worried about drivers licenses for illegals than keeping hospitals open didn't help. He's been a bad governor since day one.

NYC's Disappearing Neighborhood Hospitals

Since 2000, nineteen hospitals have closed across New York City and protesters are now fighting to stop the twentieth closure.

www.thenation.com

 

[Halfmooncuse]

I am of the opinion that concentrating on treatment, at first, rather than prevention, is the most pragmatic. Those with risk factors will need to be much more careful, as will those around them. Otherwise, treat the symptoms when infected. Eventually, herd immunity and eventually some preventative measures will be the norm, with treatment for what slips through.
We cannot stop everything because a few people (relative to the entire population) will not survive an infection. We don't shelter in place for any other infectious deadly disease.

Captain you from Georgia?

 

[OrlandoCuse]

Actually random testing started over the weekend. A Wegmans in Rochester did 100 one day and 50 the next. The only criteria I heard of was general location, ie 60% in NYC area where biggest outbreak is/was.

Really folks I want this over. I just don't want to pre-emptively change direction. Remember its not just your own life but lives of others.

Not sure testing at a Wegmans qualifies as random, but I’d have to understand how the people were selected. For example, if they were just selecting 1 out of every 10 people that walked through the door, it’s actually not random. There’s factors that will skew the results (one being the people that shop at Wegmans aren’t fully representative of the population). But if there was random selection of people from the population and they were instructed to go to Wegmans to get tested, that would be random.