do we want alec lemon to catch a lot of passes?

[Millhouse]

stupid question right?

when he catches 3 or less, they're 13-9
when he catches 4 or more, they're 7-16

it could be that there are games like USF last year and Pitt the year before that where it's just garbage time which doesn't mean much either way (it's not like they would've won those games had they not thrown to him when they were already way behind)

but the games where the offense does best, he has a small role. NW and USC this year, WVU last year, Kansas State.

there's one big game from him where the offense was pretty good and that's Uconn with Paulus

like nassib, he'll set a million SU records, but does it really mean anything?

 

[rrlbees]

does it have anything to do with throwing a lot more when we are behind?

 

[Millhouse]

does it have anything to do with throwing a lot more when we are behind?

when sales has big games, the offense is good. much smaller sample.

we threw a lot against NW and USC. granted we still lost, but the offense was good.

i don't see a strong correlation between lemon catching lots of passes and the offense being good.

i do see a strong correlation for sales though.

more sales, less lemon.

now if there are games where sales doesn't show up, maybe they're forced to throw to lemon more. but i just hope they realize that sales having a good game is better for them than lemon.

i'm still hesitant to bank everything on passing all the time just because of NW and USC. new offensive approach surprising bad pass defenses. is it sustainable?

 

[rrlbees]

the offense was great vs nw and usc without pugh. does that say anything?

in the big picture, we are better with both than one. pick your poison. double sales and lemon will catch a lot of balls. double lemon and sales will catch a lot of balls. nw and usc sales looked good but i doubt it was because lemon wasn't out there or just comming back from injury.

 

[Chip]

That's what I was thinking the other day. I like Lemon, he's a good WR, will make big 3rd down catches, will move the chains. But if he's the only open guy that we're throwing to 10 times per game, we're probably not scoring much. He's just not the playmaker go-to type. Not that there's anything wrong with that.

It doesn't surprise me that the #'s you pull support this.

If teams are going to go all out to take Sales out of the game, we need to figure out a way to get Sales back into the game. Much like what Minnesota did with Decker back in 2009. 1st half he was doubled most of it, had the one big catch in tight coverage, that was it. 2nd half they moved him all around, slot, outside, and he had a great 2nd half.

We had no answer for how Minnesota played Sales. Shouldn't work like that, otherwise good WRs would never have big games. Just scheme them! Maybe it was on Sales himself, who saw himself being doubled and just didn't give the full effort thinking he was being taken out of the offense. Who knows. But short of Deion Sanders covering him one on one for the entire game, there's just no reason that he wasn't involved in the offense until the very end.

 

[Millhouse]

the offense was great vs nw and usc without pugh. does that say anything?

in the big picture, we are better with both than one. pick your poison. double sales and lemon will catch a lot of balls. double lemon and sales will catch a lot of balls. nw and usc sales looked good but i doubt it was because lemon wasn't out there or just comming back from injury.

i went back much further than those games.

sales has more touchdowns in many fewer games.

when lemon is option 1, we might be foregoing the chance for more creative players to get the ball.

we've never won a game where lemon has 100 yards. 0-5. one of those games the offense was good.

when sales has 100 we're 2-2. and in the two losses the offense was great.

 

[KevMonstah]

I don't really care who catches the passes, but what I'd like to see is more downfield completions.

During the Minnesota game, I don't think Nassib attempted a pass more than 10 yards downfield
until late. Throwing the ball around is great, but if all the passes are completed within ten yards
of the line of scrimmage, and then you're banking on the WRs being able to break tackles to turn
it into a long gain, that doesn't seem like a successful gameplan. Of course it depends on the OL,
but still. The long pass play has got to make a reappearance at some point.

Kevin

 

[Chip]

I don't really care who catches the passes, but what I'd like to see is more downfield completions.

During the Minnesota game, I don't think Nassib attempted a pass more than 10 yards downfield
until late. Throwing the ball around is great, but if all the passes are completed within ten yards
of the line of scrimmage, and then you're banking on the WRs being able to break tackles to turn
it into a long gain, that doesn't seem like a successful gameplan. Of course it depends on the OL,
but still. The long pass play has got to make a reappearance at some point.

Kevin

Well he did have one very nice downfield pass earlier in the game. To Lemon. And it was dropped.

On each passing play either the RG or RT was blown up (depending on whose turn it was), so I think the staff wasn't going to call too much downfield, no time for it to develop. And Minnesota did that without having to blitz.

 

[Cuseregular]

statistics, damn statistics and lies...or something like that with however that saying goes. More times than not theyre good and reveal interesting factoids that are relevant, sometimes they're smoke screens that are useless. As to here what are they...that where it tough to know one situation from another.

Good question, and I like the mental calisthetics your post creates...

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Lemon's kind of interesting because he's been a starter from day one of Marrone's tenure.

I'm not sure I'd put as much emphasis on those outcomes being related to Lemon though. It looks like 3 out of the 4 teams he's played on weren't winning teams, and the one that was made an art out of scraping out victories.

You could look at any one guy pretty much during this time period and their performance is going to correlate with losing, because, well, they played on losing teams.

 

[Millhouse]

You could look at any one guy pretty much during this time period and their performance is going to correlate with losing, because, well, they played on losing teams.

sales is a good comparison because he's been in and out of the lineup.

if i'm an opposing coach i'm scared of sales. i'll take my chances with nassib throwing to lemon all day long.

 

[SWC75]

Lemon came into his own as a pass receiver when the team went into a slump. He certainly didn't contribute to defeat. He didn't cause the defeat vs. Minnesota. I certainly think we need to include Sales in the offesne and not just ignore him because he's double-covered. He's clearly our best guy and the best guy on any team is going to be double covered.

 

[rrlbees]

i went back much further than those games.

sales has more touchdowns in many fewer games.

when lemon is option 1, we might be foregoing the chance for more creative players to get the ball.

we've never won a game where lemon has 100 yards. 0-5. one of those games the offense was good.

when sales has 100 we're 2-2. and in the two losses the offense was great.

im not sure lemon nor sales, when on the field together, are option 1. its what the defense gives them.

i know the stats are what they are and there are probably a number of scenarios that can be played since we have lost so many games, but by your logic the offense vs minny wouldnt have looked so bad and we may have won if sales was out there alone with lemon on the bench.

 

[Millhouse]

im not sure lemon nor sales, when on the field together, are option 1. its what the defense gives them.

i know the stats are what they are and there are probably a number of scenarios that can be played since we have lost so many games, but by your logic the offense vs minny wouldnt have looked so bad and we may have won if sales was out there alone with lemon on the bench.

defenses don't give teams tds. (unless you're WVU and cant fathom a white guy over 230 catching a pass) taking what defenses give you only goes so far.

i don't think nassib sees the field as well as other people do. so i think we might throw to lemon too much when he's out there. minnesota isn't proof of much, it just reminded me that the offense isn't great when lemon has great games. where it is great when sales has great games.

none of this is to say lemon should be benched. i'm just talking about options and priorities

 

[rrlbees]

Well he did have one very nice downfield pass earlier in the game. To Lemon. And it was dropped.

On each passing play either the RG or RT was blown up (depending on whose turn it was), so I think the staff wasn't going to call too much downfield, no time for it to develop. And Minnesota did that without having to blitz.

i remember lemons drop but i thought it was 2nd half. maybe i erased the game from my memory though. i also thought it was a 15-20 yd pass and not something deep. again, i'm in mind eraser mode.

 

[Chip]

Lemon came into his own as a pass receiver when the team went into a slump. He certainly didn't contribute to defeat. He didn't cause the defeat vs. Minnesota. I certainly think we need to include Sales in the offesne and not just ignore him because he's double-covered. He's clearly our best guy and the best guy on any team is going to be double covered.

I don't think anyone is saying he causes or contributes to defeat. I think we're saying that if he's the focal point of the offense, then the offense probably doesn't score a lot of points.

It's hard to post things like this, because people always feel it's a negative. As if you don't want him on the team, or you blame him for losses.

 

[Chip]

i remember lemons drop but i thought it was 2nd half. maybe i erased the game from my memory though. i also thought it was a 15-20 yd pass and not something deep. again, i'm in mind eraser mode.

You're half right. 2nd quarter, our drive that started with 4 minutes left. 1st down play. We started at our 42, the pass was dropped at the Minny 38. So 20 yards from LOS. I considered that down the field since the pass itself traveled that far. Probably didn't matter too much, we ended up getting 2 first downs on that drive and made it to their 30. Then Foy was abused, which led to Nassib scrambling, but not protecting the ball. Drive over.

I remember all of this because I have a photographic memory. And because I quickly scanned the play by play on ESPN.com and then went to Big Ten to go do go right to the drive to make sure. Worst part is that I have so much work to do, and clearly don't want to do it.

 

[dollarbill44]

Could it be that Lemon tends to be the check-down receiver when protection breaks down whereas Sales is running a deeper route that doesn't have time to develop because the DE is bearing down on Nassib as if there is no one blocking him? The games we struggle offensively seem to correlate strongly with a lack of pass protection.

 

[SUFan44]

Nassib feels secure when throwing to Lemon on 5 yard pass patterns. The opportunity cost of throwing to Lemon is a possible reception by Sales, who undoubtedly runs deeper routes, or West, who also has more explosiveness after the catch than Lemon does.

I think it's very easy to say there's no correlation between Lemon having a good game and our offense not performing very well. But I think after closer inspection there are more truths to the argument than falsities.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

if i'm an opposing coach i'm scared of sales. i'll take my chances with nassib throwing to lemon all day long.

I'm a Lemon fan, but I can't really dispute that.

Fun fact about Sales - he has caught at le3ast one TD in 5 straight games, and 8 TDs over that stretch.

 

[SWC75]

Could it be that Lemon tends to be the check-down receiver when protection breaks down whereas Sales is running a deeper route that doesn't have time to develop because the DE is bearing down on Nassib as if there is no one blocking him? The games we struggle offensively seem to correlate strongly with a lack of pass protection.

I think this is it. Sales is a deep threat and gets more "YAC". Lemon is more of a possession guy. When he gets a lot of catches we are being conservative.

 

[Millhouse]

I think this is it. Sales is a deep threat and gets more "YAC". Lemon is more of a possession guy. When he gets a lot of catches we are being conservative.

i think lemon's presence make us more conservative in that nassib goes to him first. old habits are hard to break.

 

[JeremyCuse]

This argument is flawed either way, Sales has been tearing it up this year and yet were still O fer against a D1 A team. Having Lemon and Sales on the field at the same time is a must there are best two WR by far and without them I shutter to think what the O would look like.

What is killing this offense is the lack of any type of speed guy or deep threat. We have no WR on the roster other then maybe Clark (Maybe) who can take a routine pass and take it to the house. The fact were in year 4 under Marrone and still dont have a deep threat/speed guy should be the real concern.

 

[Millhouse]

This argument is flawed either way, Sales has been tearing it up this year and yet were still O fer against a D1 A team. Having Lemon and Sales on the field at the same time is a must there are best two WR by far and without them I shutter to think what the O would look like.

What is killing this offense is the lack of any type of speed guy or deep threat. We have no WR on the roster other then maybe Clark (Maybe) who can take a routine pass and take it to the house. The fact were in year 4 under Marrone and still dont have a deep threat/speed guy should be the real concern.

actually, lemon against USF last year was the closest we've had to that guy. i agree that lemon is top 2. it's really more about nassib and marrone than it is about sales or lemon.

 

[Chip]

This argument is flawed either way, Sales has been tearing it up this year and yet were still O fer against a D1 A team. Having Lemon and Sales on the field at the same time is a must there are best two WR by far and without them I shutter to think what the O would look like.

What is killing this offense is the lack of any type of speed guy or deep threat. We have no WR on the roster other then maybe Clark (Maybe) who can take a routine pass and take it to the house. The fact were in year 4 under Marrone and still dont have a deep threat/speed guy should be the real concern.

Clark is only allowed to play in the Dome. Apparently.

I don't believe he saw the field against USC or Minnesota. If he did, it wasn't much.

I do think Kobena is at least one speed guy who would be helpful. But we need more of them, because he's still improving at the position, and now he's gone until the UConn game.