Do You See Improvement?

[SmilinBob]

incredibly, the OL seems to have gotten better when Pugh returned and Hickey was moved over to RT. I can't quite put my finger on why, but it seemed to be right around that exact moment

Speaking of Pugh, we have to find a way to keep that kid in Syracuse for another year. He is a redshirt junior, correct?

 

[OrangeMojo]

To be fair in 2010 we had 3 built in Ws and 9 toss up games. In those toss up games we went 4-5. This year we have 1 built in W, 1 built in L, and 10 toss up games. Thus far we are 2-3 in the toss up games. We have looked better but at this point the results have been the same in the W column.

Looking at Sagarin rankings of first 5 toss ups in 2010 vs 2012

28. @UW vs 25. @RU
32. Pitt vs 43. NW
36. @WV vs 73. @Minn
44. @USF vs 80. Pitt
67. @Cincy vs 97. UConn

The 2010 toss up were more difficult. If we are 2-3 against the 2012 toss ups how can you say the 2012 squad would be at worst 3-2 in those 5 games?

well, only 3 of those teams you listed were among the first 7 games in 2010 and SU beat 2 of them that year. When you look at the 2010 opponents through the first 7 games (since that's how you determine what your record could be after 7 games) I think it's easy to see how this team could have gone 5-2 or maybe somehow 6-1 (although unlikely) against that slate.

 

[PhatOrange]

To be fair in 2010 we had 3 built in Ws and 9 toss up games. In those toss up games we went 4-5. This year we have 1 built in W, 1 built in L, and 10 toss up games. Thus far we are 2-3 in the toss up games. We have looked better but at this point the results have been the same in the W column.

Looking at Sagarin rankings of first 5 toss ups in 2010 vs 2012

28. @UW vs 25. @RU
32. Pitt vs 43. NW
36. @WV vs 73. @Minn
44. @USF vs 80. Pitt
67. @Cincy vs 97. UConn

The 2010 toss up were more difficult. If we are 2-3 against the 2012 toss ups how can you say the 2012 squad would be at worst 3-2 in those 5 games?

i say it because i believe this years team would blow out that years team. this team is better top to bottom at every position except for possibly 4 players.

and not to beat that dead horse again but if we weren't minus 16 or whatever the toss up games would be W's this season. At worse this team could have been 5-2 or better. yes we're 3-4 but in response to 44prides claim this team has regressed since the pinstripe bowl that is unequivically false.

 

[PhatOrange]

well, only 3 of those teams you listed were among the first 7 games in 2010 and SU beat 2 of them that year. When you look at the 2010 opponents through the first 7 games (since that's how you determine what your record could be after 7 games) I think it's easy to see how this team could have gone 5-2 or maybe somehow 6-1 (although unlikely) against that slate.

yeah that to. i was strictly talking the first 7 games.

akron / northwestern
washington / usc
maine / minnesota
colgate / stony brook
south florida / pitt
pittsburgh / rutgers
west virginia / uconn

that team definitely pulled it out of their arses to beat usf and wvu (both on the road). (common denominator in those wins - ball control - we won the turnover battle.)

 

[OttoinGrotto]

For me it all comes down to if we stay committed to the offense. I don't worry about the defense. I'd like to see more from specials still.

Long term though, we need to show that we can field a viable offense. At times it's been more than that, at other times less than that.

 

[kingottoiii]

i say it because i believe this years team would blow out that years team. this team is better top to bottom at every position except for possibly 4 players.

and not to beat that dead horse again but if we weren't minus 16 or whatever the toss up games would be W's this season. At worse this team could have been 5-2 or better. yes we're 3-4 but in response to 44prides claim this team has regressed since the pinstripe bowl that is unequivically false.

I am not so sure we are better. Deeper yes.

DEs, LBs, DBs in 2010 were better
RBs and TEs in 2010 were better

QB, WRs in 2012 are better
DTs in 2012 are better

OL seems better this year.

Also it is hard to tell how good our D is this year. Thus far we have faced purely running teams with poor QBs and WRs. Our pass D hasn't been tested and we really haven't had much of a pass rush. Our run D has been awesome. This D would have eaten up the 2nd half of the 2010 schedule. The 2010 D had a strong pass D and weak run D. They really are opposites. Not sure which one is better. Just like the Os are opposites.

 

[Chip]

after my rutgers meltdown i reviewed peoples posts. the stats are telling - we have vastly improved everywhere except punt(return) and turnover margin. unfortunately those are major reasons we have more losses than wins.

I think we win the next two to get above .500

Yep, agree. It's easier (for many of us) to start digging further into that stuff when a stat dominated game isn't lost because of so many mistakes and special teams issues. As mistakes and special teams (and the resulting negative points) are certainly part of the game.

But since we're coming off a relatively easy win over a team that we haven't defeated in recent history, I had some fun with #'s today. After 7 games, we are:

Total Offense: #35 at 454 yards per game
Total Defense: #26 at 329 yards per game
Net Difference: #15 at +125 yards per game

Just seems crazy given where we've been, trending up notwithstanding. Minimize the mistakes (no easy task with 4 of 5 on the road) and the special teams issues, and this team should be back in NYC for the Christmas season.

 

[OrangePA]

Have I seen improvement throughout the season? Yes.

But has the team regressed since the Pinstripe Bowl? Unfortunately Yes.

I think in some respects the Pinstripe Bowl team had better players at certain positions - Delone Carter/Chandler Jones/Derrell Smith.

But on an overall basis, this team - actually the Program - is much farther ahead of where we were two years ago.

We have more athletes - we are bigger - we play more people and on top of that we have better facilities and are moving to the ACC.

The team has progressed not regressed since 2010.

 

[dollarbill44]

Yep, agree. It's easier (for many of us) to start digging further into that stuff when a stat dominated game isn't lost because of so many mistakes and special teams issues. As mistakes and special teams (and the resulting negative points) are certainly part of the game.

But since we're coming off a relatively easy win over a team that we haven't defeated in recent history, I had some fun with #'s today. After 7 games, we are:

Total Offense: #35 at 454 yards per game
Total Defense: #26 at 329 yards per game
Net Difference: #15 at +125 yards per game

Just seems crazy given where we've been, trending up notwithstanding. Minimize the mistakes (no easy task with 4 of 5 on the road) and the special teams issues, and this team should be back in NYC for the Christmas season.

And therein lies the rub. What are we in net TOs nationally? Probably near #100, which cancels out all of the good the O and D have done.

But as to the OP, yes, I definitely see improvement.

 

[Millhouse]

Yep, agree. It's easier (for many of us) to start digging further into that stuff when a stat dominated game isn't lost because of so many mistakes and special teams issues. As mistakes and special teams (and the resulting negative points) are certainly part of the game.

But since we're coming off a relatively easy win over a team that we haven't defeated in recent history, I had some fun with #'s today. After 7 games, we are:

Total Offense: #35 at 454 yards per game
Total Defense: #26 at 329 yards per game
Net Difference: #15 at +125 yards per game

Just seems crazy given where we've been, trending up notwithstanding. Minimize the mistakes (no easy task with 4 of 5 on the road) and the special teams issues, and this team should be back in NYC for the Christmas season.

wet blanket here

we should probably plug in the yards the other team would've gotten in a normal drive had they not gotten gift TD or field position

stupid extreme one way to have a great defense is to let a team run back every kick all the way

i don't think it would be a huge difference but i don't think our defense is quite that good. I think special teams and turnovers probably hurts us 35 ypg? (total WAG there..)

 

[All4SU]

We are more multiple again.

 

[44cuse]

No it hasn't.

Yes it did. 1-9 against FBS was a regression.

44cuse

 

[dollarbill44]

wet blanket here

we should probably plug in the yards the other team would've gotten in a normal drive had they not gotten gift TD or field position

stupid extreme one way to have a great defense is to let a team run back every kick all the way

i don't think it would be a huge difference but i don't think our defense is quite that good. I think special teams and turnovers probably hurts us 35 ypg? (total WAG there..)

You really can't say what would happen in those instances. For example, how do we know NW doesn't go 3 and out instead of a punt return TD. How do we know SU doesn't go for a long drive instead of turning the ball over? I think those "phantom" stats are a wash over the course of a season.

 

[Chip]

wet blanket here

we should probably plug in the yards the other team would've gotten in a normal drive had they not gotten gift TD or field position

stupid extreme one way to have a great defense is to let a team run back every kick all the way

i don't think it would be a huge difference but i don't think our defense is quite that good. I think special teams and turnovers probably hurts us 35 ypg? (total WAG there..)

But you'd have to offset some of it with the defensive TD return against Pitt, the long PR we just had against UConn. Some of the turnovers we've forced.

We've given up 3 long returns (2 against NW, 1 against USC) that I can recall, and then the FG block TD. So the question would them be how many of our turnovers were on our side of the 50, vs the other side?

Seems like if you put all of that data together, you're not going to end up too materially different. We'd still be Top 30 Net, I would think versus some of the rankings recently where I assume we've easily been higher than, say 60.

The bigger wet blanket point may be that we've had garbage time drives where the defense let us take 10 yards chunks at a time versus a deep ball.

 

[OrangePA]

Yes it did. 1-9 against FBS was a regression.

44cuse

We are not 1-9 this year.

 

[GoSU96]

Yes it did. 1-9 against FBS was a regression.

44cuse

The team is much better. 2010 had a lights out defense and an offense that did just enough to win. Field position game and punt is a good play type of football. 7th on defense, 97th ranked offense.

This year 26th on defense and 33rd on offense.

The offense is 40th or better in 5 of 7 offensive measures, and better than 2010 by a wide margin in everything but rushing. In 2010 the best ranking the offense had was 73rd in 3rd down conversions, every other category was between 76 and 97. It was still better across the board than what they inherited (most 110th or worst), but not close to what is out there today.

The defense isn't as highly ranked but still very good to date.

 

[Millhouse]

You really can't say what would happen in those instances. For example, how do we know NW doesn't go 3 and out instead of a punt return TD. How do we know SU doesn't go for a long drive instead of turning the ball over? I think those "phantom" stats are a wash over the course of a season.

i agree. total wild assed guess. even if my 35 yard guess is right, that's still a big advantage of yards gained over yards allowed

 

[Millhouse]

But you'd have to offset some of it with the defensive TD return against Pitt, the long PR we just had against UConn. Some of the turnovers we've forced.

We've given up 3 long returns (2 against NW, 1 against USC) that I can recall, and then the FG block TD. So the question would them be how many of our turnovers were on our side of the 50, vs the other side?

Seems like if you put all of that data together, you're not going to end up too materially different. We'd still be Top 30 Net, I would think versus some of the rankings recently where I assume we've easily been higher than, say 60.

The bigger wet blanket point may be that we've had garbage time drives where the defense let us take 10 yards chunks at a time versus a deep ball.

the two fumbles against NW factor in too. that's the game i am thinking of as having really lopsided anamolous yards from scrimmage difference

wouldn't eliminate that gap, just make it a little smaller. just an asterisk. i feel good about how the offense did against UConn's defense, and i feel good about the run defense. I wonder about the pass defense but thankfully we have daniels, temple, missouri left

 

[44cuse]

We are not 1-9 this year.

That wasn't the question. The question was did the team regress from the Pinstripe Bowl. Going 1-9 against FBS schools was a regression.

44cuse

 

[44cuse]

The team is much better. 2010 had a lights out defense and an offense that did just enough to win. Field position game and punt is a good play type of football. 7th on defense, 97th ranked offense.

This year 26th on defense and 33rd on offense.

The offense is 40th or better in 5 of 7 offensive measures, and better than 2010 by a wide margin in everything but rushing. In 2010 the best ranking the offense had was 73rd in 3rd down conversions, every other category was between 76 and 97. It was still better across the board than what they inherited (most 110th or worst), but not close to what is out there today.

The defense isn't as highly ranked but still very good to date.

I'm not saying the team isn't better. I have been saying all season the team is better and said we would hang 30 on UCONN.

But we regressed after the Pinstripe Bowl (unfortunately) particularly after WVU.

Not arguing things aren't better now. They are.

44cuse

 

[OrangeMojo]

That wasn't the question. The question was did the team regress from the Pinstripe Bowl. Going 1-9 against FBS schools was a regression.

44cuse

that pinstripe bowl team was 1-3 in its last 4 regular season games in 2010 with the only win being a nail-biter against a Rutgers team that finished dead last in the conference. They scored 26 pts in their last 3 games combined heading into the bowl game. The team that has been on the field this year and the one that played the first 7 games last season (at 5-2) was not a regression from the last half of 2010 team. Just depends on what you want to look at.

 

[orangehomer]

the team is playing hard and i think in contrast to the past couple of years we actually have a full roster that is getting healthier rather than a depleted roster held together with athletic tape going into the last 3rd of the season. that seems like an improvement if nothing else.

 

[dollarbill44]

That wasn't the question. The question was did the team regress from the Pinstripe Bowl. Going 1-9 against FBS schools was a regression.

44cuse

Where do you get that 1-9 against FBS? I count FBS wins over Wake Forest, Tulane, Toledo, WVU, Pitt and UConn since then.

 

[All4SU]

Yes it did. 1-9 against FBS was a regression.

44cuse

That's like me saying we're 1 - 0 against FBS competition, and only counting UConn. Awfully, selective. The question was, I believe, has the team regressed since the bowl game. So you either have to take the record for all games since the bowl game, or address non-record indicators.

 

[44cuse]

Where do you get that 1-9 against FBS? I count FBS wins over Wake Forest, Tulane, Toledo, WVU, Pitt and UConn since then.

Sorry, was going fast and mixing and matching my stats (in my mind) from something else. I think everyone knows what I meant, but if you didn't:

1-6 vs the BE since the Pinstripe Bowl through 2011.
4-7 vs FBS since the Pinstripe Bowl through 2011.

And if you read my response to GO, I'm not saying they aren't better now. The whole point of my post was that the team regressed in 2011. Yes, it's a time slice...and that was the point. We regressed in 2011.

Now, the real argument here is OrangeMojo's which is the point that we were 1-3 in November going into the Pinstripe Bowl which argues (accurately) that we may not have been as good (overall) as we were in the Pinstripe Bowl. I tend to view the Pinstripe Bowl as the moment where I believed we put it together, others see it as a point in time where things came together. Two different things and I can understand both sides.

IMO...A bowl victory to a 1-win season in a horrible conference is a regression.

Hopefully that clears it up.

44cuse