Does 5-3 finish do it?

[jncuse]

My answer is nothing definitive.

My hunch is 6-2 brings us there, even without a FSU/Louisville win. But I am more worried about our team being able to go 6-2!

5-3, with a win at Louisville or Florida St, could well be enough, but hard to say.

We do have the ACC tournament to redeem ourselves as well. So that would be another opportunity for a Q1 win.

 

[jncuse]

I still think 6-2 with loses to Louisville and FSU we are okay. With that our road record will get us in. Of course it wouldn’t hurt to win 1 or 2 in the ACCT

That is my belief as well, although it could be tight.
That would mean
Q1 - 3-6 (none elite)
Q2 - 4-5
7-11 overall
7 road wins
No bad losses.

After looking at what the last teams in have already accomplished in terms of Q1+Q2 wins, not so sure anymore. We would really be walking that line.

 

[UpstateSM]

I still think 6-2 with loses to Louisville and FSU we are okay. With that our road record will get us in. Of course it wouldn’t hurt to win 1 or 2 in the ACCT

I just think the only way we can be anywheres near comfortable on Selection Sunday is if we have a signature win

 

[jncuse]

12-8 gets us in. People are overrating the crap in the 40-60 NET no we aren’t going to be left out for 14/15 loss teams like a Providence.

Teams like Providence are not in.
The 14/15 loss teams we need to worry about are Purdue, Minnesota, and Michigan. They would all get in with 14 or 15 losses. In other conferences not sure they would.

 

[kingtidge]

Need 5-3 with 1 marquee and 1 tournament.

Think that might do it... But if it doesn't, won't be too worked up.

 

[CorduroyG]

I still think 6-2 with loses to Louisville and FSU we are okay. With that our road record will get us in. Of course it wouldn’t hurt to win 1 or 2 in the ACCT

agree. 6-2 gets us in even without a “marquee” win. the road record is the key.

 

[Cuse House]

I think we can all agree that whatever happens at the end, this team has improved immensely and is a pleasure to watch.

 

[orangecuse]

Indeed, along with a number of others.

For sure. I haven't followed Okie State at all this season and wasn't aware of their horrendous 1 win conference record until I tuned in yesterday afternoon for a couple of minutes while playing/losing to Baylor. Not only did we lose those "others" earlier on, but just as with OSU, we got run out of the gym in those defeats.

 

[Ryand877]

I’d almost would take 5-3 with a win over fsu/Lville vs 6-2 with the two losses being the aforementioned teams.

 

[upperdeck]

still its a strange system where winning/losing a game in the first 4-5 carries more weight than what you do over a 20 game conf season. UNC beat oregon and was 6-1 and now has gone 4-12.. things happen those first few games ..

mich is 5-7 14-9 but unless the bottom drops out gets in with 7-8 conf wins
Ind 5-7 15-8 probably needs more to get in
minn 6-7 12-11 needs to get over .500 to get the overall record to .500 to stay in it
wisc 6-6 13-10 who knows.
purdue 7-6 14-10 is probably in.

but will they take a team under .500 in conf and .500 overall? how often does that happen?

normally teams around .500 in conf get in but also have great OC records too.

the whole big 10 middle thats in it now could implode if the top half do their job too. really needed those 5 ranked teams to play well but the whole league from Iowa down may fall to .500

 

[cuse10]

No. They have a couple bad losses and no good wins on their resume. Needed that win at Clemson to lessen the blow of Oklahoma State being what they are.

 

[Cuse House]

I’d almost would take 5-3 with a win over fsu/Lville vs 6-2 with the two losses being the aforementioned teams.

Agree with this. Especially since it would be a top 10 road win.

 

[jncuse]

No. They have a couple bad losses and no good wins on their resume. Needed that win at Clemson to lessen the blow of Oklahoma State being what they are.

What are the bad losses?

What is bad is that we lost too many games so far. But none of those losses are classified as bad (as of now).

 

[Gabjon]

What are the bad losses?

What is bad is that we lost too many games so far. But none of those losses are classified as bad (as of now).

Ok St. is 11-12; 1-9 in conference

 

[cuse10]

What are the bad losses?

What is bad is that we lost too many games so far. But none of those losses are classified as bad (as of now).

Clemson and Oklahoma State.

 

[ApexSUFan]

5-3 seems to be very optimistic for this team. In my opinion, it's about as equally likely as the team going 1-7. Not trying to be Debbie Downer, but haven't seen anything that makes me confident of a 5-3 finish.

 

[Cuse House]

5-3 seems to be very optimistic for this team. In my opinion, it's about as equally likely as the team going 1-7. Not trying to be Debbie Downer, but haven't seen anything that makes me confident of a 5-3 finish.

Well we have already beaten 3 of the teams. We get UNC at home who lost a heartbreaker last night and realistically has nothing to play for. We have been better on the road this year. The only games that I feel we have a less than a 50% chance of winning are Louisville and Florida State. I like our chances at Louisville a bit more because I think Florida State just has too many guys and athletes. I am very confident we win at least 3-4 of these. That will not get us in the tournament, but no way we go 1-7.

 

[Gabjon]

5-3 seems to be very optimistic for this team. In my opinion, it's about as equally likely as the team going 1-7. Not trying to be Debbie Downer, but haven't seen anything that makes me confident of a 5-3 finish.

We are 6-2 in our last 8...

 

[CaptainJ]

5-3 seems to be very optimistic for this team. In my opinion, it's about as equally likely as the team going 1-7. Not trying to be Debbie Downer, but haven't seen anything that makes me confident of a 5-3 finish.

That took courage. I'm neither agreeing nor disagreeing, but admire your chutzpah...and am particularly curious how you manage to have it and still rack up your like to post ratio. I like to draw wisdom from as many sources as I can.

That said, I'd put the likelihood of 1-7 closer to 7-1 than 5-3(although one of those wins being the quality road upset which is what was hoped for when folks gave that number, would change the odds as well). I don't think we have to worry about 1-7, but if I took the spirit of your post correctly, it's sensible to me. I'm personally choosing a more optimistic view, not for the commerce the NCAA or their various sponsors hope for(I dont even pay for cable or the cool kid workarounds), but to feel better than I otherwise might for as long as it will let me.

 

[MGDCuse]

still its a strange system where winning/losing a game in the first 4-5 carries more weight than what you do over a 20 game conf season. UNC beat oregon and was 6-1 and now has gone 4-12.. things happen those first few games ..

mich is 5-7 14-9 but unless the bottom drops out gets in with 7-8 conf wins
Ind 5-7 15-8 probably needs more to get in
minn 6-7 12-11 needs to get over .500 to get the overall record to .500 to stay in it
wisc 6-6 13-10 who knows.
purdue 7-6 14-10 is probably in.

but will they take a team under .500 in conf and .500 overall? how often does that happen?

normally teams around .500 in conf get in but also have great OC records too.

the whole big 10 middle thats in it now could implode if the top half do their job too. really needed those 5 ranked teams to play well but the whole league from Iowa down may fall to .500

Michigan just got Livers back too. Beat Michigan State last night in his first game back. They're a different team with him. Wouldn't be surprised to see them win out the regular season.

 

[hoopsupstate]

We are 6-2 in our last 8...

We will need to do the same thing if we want to make it. I don’t think 12-8 gets us in the tourney.

 

[cuseguy]

We will need to do the same thing if we want to make it. I don’t think 12-8 gets us in the tourney.

We’ll need to win a few ACC tourney games. We’re not beating FSU or Louisville on the road. And it’s unlikely we win all of the other six. So 5-3 or even 4-4 is probable. Is what it is.

 

[Eric15]

I know it’s water under the bridge but God I wish we could get that Clemson game back for resume purposes. Up 1 with the ball at the end of the game.

 

[STEVEHOLT]

I think we have a better shot at winning the ACC tourney outright more than beating FSU or Louisville on the road

 

[ApexSUFan]

Well we have already beaten 3 of the teams. We get UNC at home who lost a heartbreaker last night and realistically has nothing to play for. We have been better on the road this year. The only games that I feel we have a less than a 50% chance of winning are Louisville and Florida State. I like our chances at Louisville a bit more because I think Florida State just has too many guys and athletes. I am very confident we win at least 3-4 of these. That will not get us in the tournament, but no way we go 1-7.

I think you may have misunderstood my post. Let me be clear, I hope we finish 8-0. Do I believe it's likely we'll finish the season 1-7... not really. All I was trying to say (maybe not clearly) was that this team doesn't exactly instill a great deal of confidence in me as a fan. When the team plays really well, they can hang with the best in the league. Unfortunately, this team is also prone to some stinkers, as illustrated by the near loss to Wake Forest at home... which is probably the worst team in the ACC.