Donte Greene, Johnny Flynn and the draft

[jdubs30]

When Greene and Flynn,, the self proclaimed "dynasty" came onto campus in 2008, a lot changed. From 2000 to 2007, Syracuse had a total of 6 total players drafted; of those 6, only Carmelo left early, the other 5 (Hart, Etan, Damone, Warrick and Nichols) were seniors. Melo and Etan were lottery picks, Warrick was picked round 1, and the other 3 were taken in the 2nd round. So that's not bad, over the stretch of 7 drafts, we had 6 players taken, 2 of them being lottery picks. Most schools would be very happy with that, you're putting an average of 1 kid per year in the NBA. Not only that, but 5 of the 6 were seniors, so we saw them develop, improve and get better before they left. Of course the only non-senior had a pretty good single year on the hill.

Once Flynn and Greene showed up, the dynamic changed. It seemed like we started to get a lot more kids who were looking to be 1 and done and only saw college as a temporary destination (that is the mindset for a lot of kids around that age though). So what are the numbers?
Since 2008, we've had 12 players drafted; in the prior 7 year stretch we had 6, so we doubled the amount of kids we're putting in the league. Not only that, Mali and G will be getting drafted this year, so that's 14 draft picks in the last 8 drafts. You'd have to go all the back to 1991 (from 2007) to get 14 players drafted for Syracuse. So what it took us 26 years to do pre Flynn/Greene, we've done in 8 years since.

Also due to the nature of the game how it is now, kids leave early. Since 2008, of our 14 players drafted, 10 of them will have left early, and 9 of those 10 will have left as underclassmen (Wes). We've lost 4 players after their freshman years, and 5 players after their sophomore years. Of those 14, only 3 were seniors, and none were taken round 1 (Rautins, KrisJo, Rak, G). Infact, of the 10 players who left early, 8 have drafted in the 1st round (Grant was round 2, TBD on Mali) with 4 lottery picks.


Man, doesn't it seem like we've been screwed with early entrants? In an 8 year stretch we've lost 4 freshman, and 5 sophomores - however, if Mali gets taken round 1, 8 out of those 9 kids who left early would have been 1st round picks.

So how do we stack up to other schools (since 2008, I will exclude the 2016 draft) ?
Syracuse: 12 players drafted since 2008, 4 lottery picks, 9 left early - 3 freshman, 5 sophomores, 1 junior
Kansas: 18 players drafted since 2008, 10 lottery picks, 15 left early - 6 freshman, 6 juniors, 1 sophomore
MSU: 5 players drafted since 2008, 1 lottery pick, 1 player left early - 1 sophomore
UNC: 12 players drafted since 2008, 5 lottery picks, 9 players left early - 5 juniors, 4 sophomores
Duke: 14 players drafted since 2008, 6 lottery picks, 9 players left early - 6 freshman, 2 sophomores, 1 junior
UK: 27 players drafted since 2008. 'nuff said
Arizona: 10 players drafted since 2008, 5 lottery picks, 9 players left early - 4 freshman, 2 sophomores, 3 juniors
UConn: 10 players drafted since 2008, 4 lottery picks, 6 left early - 2 sophomores, 3 juinors, 1 freshman


In retrospect, we are right there amongst this group as far as kids leaving early (except MSU). Our numbers are deadlocked with UNC with the exception of we've lost 8 underclassmen and they've lost 4.

There are some schools on this list that will have 1 or no players drafted this year (MSU, Duke, UConn, Zona). So we will once again add to our total. I'm sure there are a few other schools I could have added to the overall list, but this just gives a snapshot of where we stand on the landscape as far as losing players early.

 

[imdevo]

Terrific analysis.

It speaks volumes to our staff from a recruiting standpoint. They can spot talent ( the stars/rankings), develop them fast enough and they're able to maximize their talent.

Unfortunately this doesn't translate to the league...

 

[EastCoast2]

I'm always amazed how UNC gets McDonald's all Americans to stay 3-4 years. Yes we had Rak, but it seems UNC always has at least a junior or senior who was a McD AA then a couple sophomores as well.

They got 2 years out of Harrison Barnes, who was the #1 player in the country. Dude had a 98 rating on ESPN.

 

[orangenirvana]

I'm always amazed how UNC gets McDonald's all Americans to stay 3-4 years. Yes we had Rak, but it seems UNC always has at least a junior or senior who was a McD AA then a couple sophomores as well.

They got 2 years out of Harrison Barnes, who was the #1 player in the country. Dude had a 98 rating on ESPN.

And just watch Justin Jackson decide to go back to school. It's all just dumb luck I guess.

 

[jdubs30]

Terrific analysis.

It speaks volumes to our staff from a recruiting standpoint. They can spot talent ( the stars/rankings), develop them fast enough and they're able to maximize their talent.

Unfortunately this doesn't translate to the league...

Outside of Kentucky, no college has consistently put stars in the NBA -- IMO it's the colleges job to get the player to the league, but they have to take it from there.

 

[Gabjon]

Great post!
What fans need to also look at is our record from 2000-2007 vs 2008-2015

 

[OrangeDW]

Outside of Kentucky, no college has consistently put stars in the NBA -- IMO it's the colleges job to get the player to the league, but they have to take it from there.

Yup. Look at UNC. I could be wrong, but I can't remember an all star NBA player from UNC since the 90's(Carter, Jamison, etc.).

Their best pro would have to be Barnes or Green, and they are pretty good but not stars. A lot of their high picks have just been decent at best pros(Felton, Marvin Williams, Wright, Ed Davis) or flat out busts(McCants, May).

 

[Consigliere]

I'm wondering if the expansion of the D-League in 2005 giving the NBA a true minor league and a place to stash players who are not quite ready for Big Boy hoops has had a disproportionate effect on us. Since we've become an exclusively zone team, Cuse recruits the type of long, athletic players that scream potential to NBA GMs. Measureables and potential trump college production and with a place to season young talent seems like the incentive is there on both sides to stockpile young talent and see what develops. Guess that's why the call it the D-league.

 

[AlaskaSU]

I'm always amazed how UNC gets McDonald's all Americans to stay 3-4 years. Yes we had Rak, but it seems UNC always has at least a junior or senior who was a McD AA then a couple sophomores as well.

They got 2 years out of Harrison Barnes, who was the #1 player in the country. Dude had a 98 rating on ESPN.

Not having to go to classes makes college more attractive.

 

[urban96]

I think the NBA is also drafting differently now, much more value in a players "potential" rather than their accomplishments.

 

[jncuse]

I think the NBA is also drafting differently now, much more value in a players "potential" rather than their accomplishments.

Nope - it was the exact same way back in 2000-2007. Look at where some of the high school kids got picked in the 3 drafts immediately preceeding Lebron / Melo in 2004.

 

[chugg21]

Nope - it was the exact same way back in 2000-2007. Look at where some of the high school kids got picked in the 3 drafts immediately preceeding Lebron / Melo in 2004.

Yeah that started in about '95 with KG.

 

[Ward]

Nope - it was the exact same way back in 2000-2007. Look at where some of the high school kids got picked in the 3 drafts immediately preceeding Lebron / Melo in 2004.

Yeah that started in about '95 with KG.

Yea, it's been that way for awhile. I don't blame the GM's though in swinging for the fences in the top 8-10 picks.

Situation A Boom/Bust Potential: Best case 2-3 years you get a star who turns your franchise around into a contender. Worst case he's awful and you end up back in the lottery with another chance to grab a star.

Situation B Upperclassmen Low Ceiling/Higher Floor: Best case you have a good role player that helps you get better so you're in the playoffs as a 6-8 seed and lose in the first round. Worst case he's awful and you stay in the lottery with a chance to do it again.

 

[Rage4CUSE]

Yea, it's been that way for awhile. I don't blame the GM's though in swinging for the fences in the top 8-10 picks.

Situation A Boom/Bust Potential: Best case 2-3 years you get a star who turns your franchise around into a contender. Worst case he's awful and you end up back in the lottery with another chance to grab a star.

Situation B Upperclassmen Low Ceiling/Higher Floor: Best case you have a good role player that helps you get better so you're in the playoffs as a 6-8 seed and lose in the first round. Worst case he's awful and you stay in the lottery with a chance to do it again.

And then you're fired.

 

[Gabjon]

This is what changed it all forever!

The 1994 NBA draft took place on June 29, 1994 in Indianapolis, Indiana. Two NBA rookies of the year were picked in the first round, as Jason Kidd and Grant Hill were co-winners of the award for the 1994–95 NBA season. Kidd and Hill would end up as perennial All-Stars (10 and 7-time selections, respectively), though Hill's career was marred by severe injuries.

The first overall pick Glenn Robinson was involved in a contract holdout shortly after being selected, reportedly seeking a 13-year, $100 million contract. Both Robinson and theMilwaukee Bucks eventually agreed on a 10-year, $68 million contract, which stands as the richest NBA contract signed by a rookie.[1] A fixed salary cap for rookies was implemented by the NBA the following season.




https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_NBA_draft

 

[LennX6]

When Greene and Flynn,, the self proclaimed "dynasty" came onto campus in 2008, a lot changed. From 2000 to 2007, Syracuse had a total of 6 total players drafted; of those 6, only Carmelo left early, the other 5 (Hart, Etan, Damone, Warrick and Nichols) were seniors. Melo and Etan were lottery picks, Warrick was picked round 1, and the other 3 were taken in the 2nd round. So that's not bad, over the stretch of 7 drafts, we had 6 players taken, 2 of them being lottery picks. Most schools would be very happy with that, you're putting an average of 1 kid per year in the NBA. Not only that, but 5 of the 6 were seniors, so we saw them develop, improve and get better before they left. Of course the only non-senior had a pretty good single year on the hill.

Once Flynn and Greene showed up, the dynamic changed. It seemed like we started to get a lot more kids who were looking to be 1 and done and only saw college as a temporary destination (that is the mindset for a lot of kids around that age though). So what are the numbers?
Since 2008, we've had 12 players drafted; in the prior 7 year stretch we had 6, so we doubled the amount of kids we're putting in the league. Not only that, Mali and G will be getting drafted this year, so that's 14 draft picks in the last 8 drafts. You'd have to go all the back to 1991 (from 2007) to get 14 players drafted for Syracuse. So what it took us 26 years to do pre Flynn/Greene, we've done in 8 years since.

Also due to the nature of the game how it is now, kids leave early. Since 2008, of our 14 players drafted, 10 of them will have left early, and 9 of those 10 will have left as underclassmen (Wes). We've lost 4 players after their freshman years, and 5 players after their sophomore years. Of those 14, only 3 were seniors, and none were taken round 1 (Rautins, KrisJo, Rak, G). Infact, of the 10 players who left early, 8 have drafted in the 1st round (Grant was round 2, TBD on Mali) with 4 lottery picks.


Man, doesn't it seem like we've been screwed with early entrants? In an 8 year stretch we've lost 4 freshman, and 5 sophomores - however, if Mali gets taken round 1, 8 out of those 9 kids who left early would have been 1st round picks.

So how do we stack up to other schools (since 2008, I will exclude the 2016 draft) ?
Syracuse: 12 players drafted since 2008, 4 lottery picks, 9 left early - 3 freshman, 5 sophomores, 1 junior
Kansas: 18 players drafted since 2008, 10 lottery picks, 15 left early - 6 freshman, 6 juniors, 1 sophomore
MSU: 5 players drafted since 2008, 1 lottery pick, 1 player left early - 1 sophomore
UNC: 12 players drafted since 2008, 5 lottery picks, 9 players left early - 5 juniors, 4 sophomores
Duke: 14 players drafted since 2008, 6 lottery picks, 9 players left early - 6 freshman, 2 sophomores, 1 junior
UK: 27 players drafted since 2008. 'nuff said
Arizona: 10 players drafted since 2008, 5 lottery picks, 9 players left early - 4 freshman, 2 sophomores, 3 juniors
UConn: 10 players drafted since 2008, 4 lottery picks, 6 left early - 2 sophomores, 3 juinors, 1 freshman


In retrospect, we are right there amongst this group as far as kids leaving early (except MSU). Our numbers are deadlocked with UNC with the exception of we've lost 8 underclassmen and they've lost 4.

There are some schools on this list that will have 1 or no players drafted this year (MSU, Duke, UConn, Zona). So we will once again add to our total. I'm sure there are a few other schools I could have added to the overall list, but this just gives a snapshot of where we stand on the landscape as far as losing players early.

A neat thing, a quick glance at your list of school comparisons above, matches pretty closely to the College representation of NBAers still playing in the Post Season.

 

[SWC75]

When Greene and Flynn,, the self proclaimed "dynasty" came onto campus in 2008, a lot changed. From 2000 to 2007, Syracuse had a total of 6 total players drafted; of those 6, only Carmelo left early, the other 5 (Hart, Etan, Damone, Warrick and Nichols) were seniors. Melo and Etan were lottery picks, Warrick was picked round 1, and the other 3 were taken in the 2nd round. So that's not bad, over the stretch of 7 drafts, we had 6 players taken, 2 of them being lottery picks. Most schools would be very happy with that, you're putting an average of 1 kid per year in the NBA. Not only that, but 5 of the 6 were seniors, so we saw them develop, improve and get better before they left. Of course the only non-senior had a pretty good single year on the hill.

Once Flynn and Greene showed up, the dynamic changed. It seemed like we started to get a lot more kids who were looking to be 1 and done and only saw college as a temporary destination (that is the mindset for a lot of kids around that age though). So what are the numbers?
Since 2008, we've had 12 players drafted; in the prior 7 year stretch we had 6, so we doubled the amount of kids we're putting in the league. Not only that, Mali and G will be getting drafted this year, so that's 14 draft picks in the last 8 drafts. You'd have to go all the back to 1991 (from 2007) to get 14 players drafted for Syracuse. So what it took us 26 years to do pre Flynn/Greene, we've done in 8 years since.

Also due to the nature of the game how it is now, kids leave early. Since 2008, of our 14 players drafted, 10 of them will have left early, and 9 of those 10 will have left as underclassmen (Wes). We've lost 4 players after their freshman years, and 5 players after their sophomore years. Of those 14, only 3 were seniors, and none were taken round 1 (Rautins, KrisJo, Rak, G). Infact, of the 10 players who left early, 8 have drafted in the 1st round (Grant was round 2, TBD on Mali) with 4 lottery picks.


Man, doesn't it seem like we've been screwed with early entrants? In an 8 year stretch we've lost 4 freshman, and 5 sophomores - however, if Mali gets taken round 1, 8 out of those 9 kids who left early would have been 1st round picks.

So how do we stack up to other schools (since 2008, I will exclude the 2016 draft) ?
Syracuse: 12 players drafted since 2008, 4 lottery picks, 9 left early - 3 freshman, 5 sophomores, 1 junior
Kansas: 18 players drafted since 2008, 10 lottery picks, 15 left early - 6 freshman, 6 juniors, 1 sophomore
MSU: 5 players drafted since 2008, 1 lottery pick, 1 player left early - 1 sophomore
UNC: 12 players drafted since 2008, 5 lottery picks, 9 players left early - 5 juniors, 4 sophomores
Duke: 14 players drafted since 2008, 6 lottery picks, 9 players left early - 6 freshman, 2 sophomores, 1 junior
UK: 27 players drafted since 2008. 'nuff said
Arizona: 10 players drafted since 2008, 5 lottery picks, 9 players left early - 4 freshman, 2 sophomores, 3 juniors
UConn: 10 players drafted since 2008, 4 lottery picks, 6 left early - 2 sophomores, 3 juinors, 1 freshman


In retrospect, we are right there amongst this group as far as kids leaving early (except MSU). Our numbers are deadlocked with UNC with the exception of we've lost 8 underclassmen and they've lost 4.

There are some schools on this list that will have 1 or no players drafted this year (MSU, Duke, UConn, Zona). So we will once again add to our total. I'm sure there are a few other schools I could have added to the overall list, but this just gives a snapshot of where we stand on the landscape as far as losing players early.

By my count that's

Syracuse got 28 years from 12 drafted players = 2.33 years per player
Kansas got 38 years form 18 drafted players = 2.11
Michigan State got 18 years form 5 players = 3.60
North Carolina got 35 years from 12 players = 2.92
Duke got 28 years from 14 players = 2.00
Arizona got 21 years from 10 players = 2.10
Connecticut got 30 years from 10 players = 3.00

So we are somewhere in the middle of the pack in terms of keeping NBA-level players here., at least among the listed schools.

 

[br801]

By my count that's

Syracuse got 28 years from 12 drafted players = 2.33 years per player
Kansas got 38 years form 18 drafted players = 2.11
Michigan State got 18 years form 5 players = 3.60
North Carolina got 35 years from 12 players = 2.92
Duke got 28 years from 14 players = 2.00
Arizona got 21 years from 10 players = 2.10
Connecticut got 30 years from 10 players = 3.00

So we are somewhere in the middle of the pack in terms of keeping NBA-level players here., at least among the listed schools.

Actually, the profiles for Syracuse, Duke, Kansas and Arizona are quite similar. UNC is the real outlier here, perhaps because they can offer their upperclassmen a better salary scale than the NBA.

 

[stuckinbig11]

So how do we stack up to other schools (since 2008, I will exclude the 2016 draft) ?
Syracuse: 12 players drafted since 2008, 4 lottery picks, 9 left early - 3 freshman, 5 sophomores, 1 junior
Kansas: 18 players drafted since 2008, 10 lottery picks, 15 left early - 6 freshman, 6 juniors, 1 sophomore
MSU: 5 players drafted since 2008, 1 lottery pick, 1 player left early - 1 sophomore
UNC: 12 players drafted since 2008, 5 lottery picks, 9 players left early - 5 juniors, 4 sophomores
Duke: 14 players drafted since 2008, 6 lottery picks, 9 players left early - 6 freshman, 2 sophomores, 1 junior
UK: 27 players drafted since 2008. 'nuff said
Arizona: 10 players drafted since 2008, 5 lottery picks, 9 players left early - 4 freshman, 2 sophomores, 3 juniors
UConn: 10 players drafted since 2008, 4 lottery picks, 6 left early - 2 sophomores, 3 juinors, 1 freshman

Hey, it is 9:31 pm, and according to your analysis, Georgetown still sucks.

 

[SWC75]

Actually, the profiles for Syracuse, Duke, Kansas and Arizona are quite similar. UNC is the real outlier here, perhaps because they can offer their upperclassmen a better salary scale than the NBA.

Besides, they get to study Swahili.

 

[Rage4CUSE]

Hey, it is 9:31 pm, and according to your analysis, Georgetown still sucks.

Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha!!! Should Georgetown even be considered a rival anymore? They have been decently terrible this century while we've been top 5-10 on basically every meaningful stat.