Duke and the spread

[Cstate]

I’m not 100% sure why I’m doing this, but I’ll be me and a buddy will be driving out to the Dome Wednesday night. Maybe I just like torturing myself…..

Please let’s just keep the game “reasonable”. Not sure yet what the actual spread will be…….

 

[Fly Rodder]

I’m not 100% sure why I’m doing this, but I’ll be me and a buddy will be driving out to the Dome Wednesday night. Maybe I just like torturing myself…..

Please let’s just keep the game “reasonable”. Not sure yet what the actual spread will be…….

Probably SU +18. UNC was +14.5 I think. I don’t think the handicappers go much past 20 points.

 

[TinyManInside]

If Duke wants to beat us by 40, they'll beat us by 40. Scheyer called off the dogs yesterday so the final margin was only 17 but they could have won that game against UNC by 35+ if they wanted to.

 

[cusefan88]

I was thinking it opens at 16 or 17 and could hit 21 by tipoff.

 

[upperdeck]

Duke at BC was around 23.5. SU at BC was +1.5. On that the spread would be around 25

 

[Cuse_NYC]

18.5

 

[Bulldog04]

wait til you guys see Maluach in person. Flagg is Flagg and the best player in the country but oh dear god Maluach is a 7-2 Loul Deng. He’s not developed skill wise yet, but this kid is something. I’ll be at the dome weds heckling him don’t worry

 

[hoopsupstate]

wait til you guys see Maluach in person. Flagg is Flagg and the best player in the country but oh dear god Maluach is a 7-2 Loul Deng. He’s not developed skill wise yet, but this kid is something. I’ll be at the dome weds heckling him don’t worry

He needs to see a little McLeod.

 

[realorange]

Now that he is well again, 'Cuse will see an old friend in Malik. Scheyer has praised him as a very talented defensive player. As if we didn't know.

Putting aside any distaste because they are Duke, this team is a pleasure to watch on both ends of the court.

 

[UnderHisOwnPower]

I’m not 100% sure why I’m doing this, but I’ll be me and a buddy will be driving out to the Dome Wednesday night. Maybe I just like torturing myself…..

Please let’s just keep the game “reasonable”. Not sure yet what the actual spread will be…….

This is Syracuse's Super Bowl!!

 

[jncuse]

Lines always open within a point or so of KP projections based on Adjusted Efficiency (with the very odd exception)... I have it at 17.5.

31.2 Difference in AdjustedEM/100 possessions.
Teams average 67 possessions (so 20.9 over 67 possessions)
And we get the standard 3.5 home point bump (20.9 - 3.5)

 

[jncuse]

Duke at BC was around 23.5. SU at BC was +1.5. On that the spread would be around 25

Two problems with your calculation.
#1. You should be taking 1.5 away from 23.5, not adding it. That takes it down to 22.0.
#2. Furthermore on a neutral court we are 5 points better than BC, not 1.5. That is because BC got the 3.5 home point kicker in the above line. . That 3.5 needs to be adjusted as well.

So take another 3.5 away from 22, and you get to 18.5.
Which brings us very close to my expected line right now of around 17.5 based on KP.

 

[grepal]

I’m not 100% sure why I’m doing this, but I’ll be me and a buddy will be driving out to the Dome Wednesday night. Maybe I just like torturing myself…..

Please let’s just keep the game “reasonable”. Not sure yet what the actual spread will be…….

Look, at the worse you get to see a half dozen future NBA players.

 

[kcsu]

Play a 2-1-2 zone the whole game. Run every possession to the last 3 seconds and shoot only 3 pt shots. Take nothing but threes .
Play McLeod in the middle of the zone. Dry Hump and Davis on the wings. JJ and Bell up top.
Petar in for Hump and Davis
Taylor in for Bell
Choppa for Bell or JJ
McCleod plays the whole game. Never leaves the court.
JJ Choppa Bell take 90% of the shots.
Petar hard fouls Flagg 5 times all in the fist 5 minutes.
Take SU and the money line.

 

[PoppyHart]

Play a 2-1-2 zone the whole game. Run every possession to the last 3 seconds and shoot only 3 pt shots. Take nothing but threes .
Play McLeod in the middle of the zone. Dry Hump and Davis on the wings. JJ and Bell up top.
Petar in for Hump and Davis
Taylor in for Bell
Choppa for Bell or JJ
McCleod plays the whole game. Never leaves the court.
JJ Choppa Bell take 90% of the shots.
Petar hard fouls Flagg 5 times all in the fist 5 minutes.
Take SU and the money line.

We could play a 2-3-2 zone and it still wouldn’t matter.