Duke is gonna get a 1 seed

[CorduroyG]

Duke and UNC will be in Boston and Atlanta. One will be #1 seed in Atlanta; other will be #2 seed in Boston.

yup, ive been saying for over a month that we're gonna get either duke or carolina as our 2 seed in the east.

 

[jncuse]

Pretty much 100% that we get one or the other

If they were both #2 seeds, its most likely Duke, due to preference to avoid rematches in elite eight, and how the puzzle would work . Only scenario I can see where we get neither is if the one seeds were Kentucky, Syracuse, Ohio St, and Missouri, and committee tries to avoid any 1-2 rematches.

 

[Knicks411]

St. Louis is technically a little closer to Lexington then Atlanta. But Atlanta is more SEC Country - I think that would be the preference for Kentucky. But I think committee will justify Kentucky`s region based on other one seeds.

Yeah, I looked at this a while back, St. Louis and Atlanta are both roughly the same distance, but you are probably right, Big 12 winner gets St. Louis, Kentucky gets Atlanta.

Duke right now is 12th in the Pomeroy ratings. Probably wouldn't be bad to be a 2 seed in their region if they get a 1. (I'm not saying this will happen for us, just saying in general).

If something happens where say tOSU and Mich state and then Kansas and Mizzou split their titles (IE one wins the reg season, the other takes the tournament) and then Duke takes both the regular season and the tournament, they are probably a 1.

 

[BuffOrange]

regular season. if duke wins out in the regular season and wins 1 in the acc tourny theyre a 1, zero doubt in my mind. why would kansas get a 1 over duke? duke has a better record, better rpi, better sos. And oh yea, DUKE BEAT THEM!

If Kansas wins out they'll have the same record with only 2 losses since Christmas.

 

[Nicknack]

Just a side note... I am forced to watch Duke games because my wife and entire family went there and are big fans. You know how painful it is to root for them while the whole time I'm cringing and hoping they will lose? Duke can be a dangerous team for anyone to face, but all it takes is one game where their 3's aren't falling and they are in a world of hurt. They are way too reliant on the 3's. With that being said, even though I believe we would beat 'em, a'Cuse / Duke match up in the NCAA's wouldn't be so good for my marriage.

 

[Marsh01]

Just a side note... I am forced to watch Duke games because my wife and entire family went there and are big fans. You know how painful it is to root for them while the whole time I'm cringing and hoping they will lose?

You really should not root for them. RF2044 please advise him on how to root against the wife/inlaw family.

 

[Jasoncuse]

Are we really a lock #1? What if we lose to UConn, UL and the 8 seed in the BET (SHU/WVU/UCONN?), albeit unlikely? Beat UConn and it's signed, sealed and delivered. Lose these games and I think we slip down behind UK, MSU, ACC Champs, KU/Mizzou for sure.

 

[Knicks411]

Are we really a lock #1? What if we lose to UConn, UL and the 8 seed in the BET (SHU/WVU/UCONN?), albeit unlikely? Beat UConn and it's signed, sealed and delivered. Lose these games and I think we slip down behind UK, MSU, ACC Champs, KU/Mizzou for sure.

I think if we lose 3 in a row a 2 seed is in play. Not likely, but could happen.

 

[Marsh01]

Are we really a lock #1? What if we lose to UConn, UL and the 8 seed in the BET (SHU/WVU/UCONN?), albeit unlikely? Beat UConn and it's signed, sealed and delivered. Lose these games and I think we slip down behind UK, MSU, ACC Champs, KU/Mizzou for sure.

You are also assuming all of these teams will win out.

I think we are set in stone the #1 in the east regardless of what we do the rest of the way.

 

[reedny]

If Carolina beats Duke (which I fully expect them to do) then Duke will not get a 1 seed. That was my original argument. Kansas will win the Big 12 regular season and tourney (IMO) and therefore will get a #1 seed making their loss vs Duke completely irrelevant.

Ky and SU have incredible records. Barring a disaster (either team suddenly looses 2 or 3 games between now and selection), they're locks for #1 seeds. All the other teams already have at least 3-5 losses. KU is hot with Withey playing so well inside, but they play Missouri this weekend. If Missouri wins that game on the road at KU, they're in for sure and KU is a 2 seed. If KU wins, I think they're in, with the final 1 seed going to whichever ACC team (Duke/UNC) wins their March 3d regular season game.

SU
Kentucky
Missouri/KU winner (2-25)
Duke/UNC winner (3-3)

 

[Marsh01]

Ky and SU have incredible records. Barring a disaster (either team suddenly looses 2 or 3 games between now and selection), they're locks for #1 seeds. All the other teams already have at least 3-5 losses. KU is hot with Withey playing so well inside, but they play Missouri this weekend. If Missouri wins that game on the road at KU, they're in for sure and KU is a 2 seed. If KU wins, I think they're in, with the final 1 seed going to whichever ACC team (Duke/UNC) wins their March 3d regular season game.

SU
Kentucky
Missouri/KU winner (2-25)
Duke/UNC winner (3-3)

There is no way in hell the Big 10 winner does not get a #1 seed. I am not saying I agree with it but if Mich State wins the regular season (and beats OSU in the season finale) they will 100% get a #1 seed. The ACC has been so bad this year they will not get it over the Big 10 champ.

 

[Orangemen]

There is no way in hell the Big 10 winner does not get a #1 seed. I am not saying I agree with it but if Mich State wins the regular season (and beats OSU in the season finale) they will 100% get a #1 seed. The ACC has been so bad this year they will not get it over the Big 10 champ.

You're probably right, but MSU does have a loss to UNC and a loss to Duke on the resume.

If it comes down to head to head for the 4th 1 seed/1st 2 seed, that h2h matchup could easily be the determining factor.

 

[Marsh01]

You're probably right, but MSU does have a loss to UNC and a loss to Duke on the resume.

If it comes down to head to head for the 4th 1 seed/1st 2 seed, that h2h matchup could easily be the determining factor.

UNC was the first game of the year (on a freaking boat no less). My assumptions are based on Duke losing to UNC in the ACC finale.

The Big 10 has been the far superior conference and the committee will reward that champion accordingly.

 

[AZOrange]

As of tonight here is what you are looking at if it ended today (#2 seeds in parenthesis)

South - Kentucky (Ohio State)
East - Syracuse (UNC)
Midwest -Michigan State (Mizzou)
West - Duke (Kansas)

we get the top 2 seed? ugh.

 

[AZOrange]

UNC was the first game of the year (on a freaking boat no less). My assumptions are based on Duke losing to UNC in the ACC finale.

The Big 10 has been the far superior conference and the committee will reward that champion accordingly.

This is how I see it shaking out:

East: Cuse (Duke)
South: Kentucky (UNC)
Midwest: Michigan State (Mizzou)
West: Kansas (OSU)

 

[Marsh01]

we get the top 2 seed? ugh.

Nope, read it in reverse. Kansas #5, MSU #6, UNC #7 and OSU #8. I am basing this on if the tourney started today.

 

[AZOrange]

Nope, read it in reverse. Kansas #5, MSU #6, UNC #7 and OSU #8. I am basing this on if the tourney started today.

Oh i thought you had us as the top 1.

 

[Marsh01]

Oh i thought you had us as the top 1.

I know Lunardi has us at the top but I just dont see us leapfrogging Kentucky. Not that it matters but I think we end up as the 2nd #1 seed which would mean we would not face them until the finals if we both are fortunate enough to make it.

 

[Orangemen]

As far as I know, and obviously, it's subjective, games are games, regardless of when played.

If through whatever confluence of events, Duke, MSU, and KU end up vying for a 1 seed, I think Duke goes to the top of that list. If it's OSU, and not MSU, then head to head means less, and other factors will come through (based on marquee wins, I'd guess duke wins this one to).

Here's my guess at likelihood for snagging the last 2 1's:

1. Duke
2a. MSU
2b. KU
4. OSU
5. UNC

Right now it's really hard to judge between MSU and KU.

There's a lot of head to heads in this group too, as I said before, if it gets widdled down to 2 teams for any one spot, the head to head matchups will be a big part of the discussion.

 

[AZOrange]

As far as I know, and obviously, it's subjective, games are games, regardless of when played.

If through whatever confluence of events, Duke, MSU, and KU end up vying for a 1 seed, I think Duke goes to the top of that list. If it's OSU, and not MSU, then head to head means less, and other factors will come through (based on marquee wins, I'd guess duke wins this one to).

Here's my guess at likelihood for snagging the last 2 1's:

1. Duke
2a. MSU
2b. KU
4. OSU
5. UNC

Right now it's really hard to judge between MSU and KU.

There's a lot of head to heads in this group too, as I said before, if it gets widdled down to 2 teams for any one spot, the head to head matchups will be a big part of the discussion.

In other years I would agree completely, but there is no way the Big10 champ isnt getting a No. 1.

 

[CorduroyG]

I know Lunardi has us at the top but I just dont see us leapfrogging Kentucky. Not that it matters but I think we end up as the 2nd #1 seed which would mean we would not face them until the finals if we both are fortunate enough to make it.

Arent we ahead of kentucky in most of the "computer" #s that the committee looks at? rpi, sos, etc. I assume thats why lunardi has us as the overall #1 right now. kentucky has 6 top 50 rpi wins, we have TEN. Polls are meaningless to the committee.

And remember our only loss was without fab, the committee takes that stuff into consideration.

 

[reedny]

There is no way in hell the Big 10 winner does not get a #1 seed. I am not saying I agree with it but if Mich State wins the regular season (and beats OSU in the season finale) they will 100% get a #1 seed. The ACC has been so bad this year they will not get it over the Big 10 champ.

I hear you, but predicting who gets the last 1 seed is closer than you think. Currently, Mizzo is ranked 3d -- with 3 losses. If they beat KU on the road, they're in, period. The #1 seeds would then be Ky, SU and Mizzo with the 4th 1 spot up for grabs. If KU wins, IMO the 1 seeds will be:

Ky
SU
KU
Duke/UNC

You definately have a good argument that MSU deserves that last spot if they beat OSU. But the ACC (probably Duke) has a helluva good argument:

1- Duke/UNC have better records (4 losses vs. 5 for MSU), and Duke has a slightly higher RPI than MSU http://statsheet.com/mcb/rankings/RPI
2- Both Duke and MSU have recent big-time road wins, Duke at UNC and MSU at OSU;
3- Duke has another advantage because it just beat #16 FSU on the road;
4- MSU's 3 road losses look worse than Duke's OT home loss to UM. and its loss to FUS;
5- MSU lost to both Duke and UNC head to head (it was early, but still...).

In the end, I think it will come down to whether MSU can beat OSU at home tomorrow, and Duke can beat UNC in Durham on March 3. I don't think conference will be the deciding factor. If both teams win these big games, my gut tells me Duke gets the nod.

 

[CorduroyG]

I hear you, but predicting who gets the last 1 seed is closer than you think. Currently, Mizzo is ranked 3d -- with 3 losses. If they beat KU on the road, they're in, period. The #1 seeds would then be Ky, SU and Mizzo with the 4th 1 spot up for grabs. If KU wins, IMO the 1 seeds will be:

Ky
SU
KU
Duke/UNC

You definately have a good argument that MSU deserves that last spot if they beat OSU. But the ACC (probably Duke) has a helluva good argument:

1- Duke/UNC have better records (4 losses vs. 5 for MSU), and Duke has a slightly higher RPI than MSU http://statsheet.com/mcb/rankings/RPI
2- Both Duke and MSU have recent big-time road wins, Duke at UNC and MSU at OSU;
3- Duke has another advantage because it just beat #16 FSU on the road;
4- MSU's 3 road losses look worse than Duke's OT home loss to UM. and its loss to FUS.

In the end, I think it will come down to whether MSU can beat OSU at home tomorrow, and Duke can beat UNC in Durham on March 3. I don't think conference will be the deciding factor. If both teams win these big games, my gut tells me Duke gets the nod.

I think the final #1 will come down to duke or kansas. If michigan st wins the big 10 theyll get a 1. And i have zero doubt if duke runs the table in the regular season and wins at least 1 or 2 in the acc tourny theyll get a 1, regardless of what kansas does. This is duke we're talking about! The darlings of college basketball! acc regular season champs plus great computer #s plus beating kansas head to head is a 1 seed, ill be shocked if that doesnt happen.

 

[kirbivore]

I would really like to know who and where the 2 seeds get shipped off to. This will be interesting come selection Sunday.

It should depend on the S curve, but since the committee started revealing the pecking order of the one seeds, it seems that they don't follow the S curve all that much.

 

[kirbivore]

Are we really a lock #1? What if we lose to UConn, UL and the 8 seed in the BET (SHU/WVU/UCONN?), albeit unlikely? Beat UConn and it's signed, sealed and delivered. Lose these games and I think we slip down behind UK, MSU, ACC Champs, KU/Mizzou for sure.

split storz/l'ville, win on BET Thursday and the #1 seed is a lock.