Duke Preview

[cuselaxss26]

Know there isn’t a duke game thread yet. But saw in gtown game they won the groundball battle which may been first time we lost the gb battle n actually won. Think cause we clearly had more talent n things clicked on top of being baxk in dome after a while. So going into duke who think is normally very good gb team think cuse has to dominate that part of game. They have to get every 50/50 ball def in D zone to not give duke any second chances. Gotta win that battle.

 

[36'sq.]

When I saw Saint Joe's at Duke a few weeks back, Duke used at least 2 face off guys. One seemed to take most of them, but another guy got a few. I think their main guy is on the small side, should be an interesting matchup for a guy as big and strong as Mullen.

 

[OttosDad]

When I saw Saint Joe's at Duke a few weeks back, Duke used at least 2 face off guys. One seemed to take most of them, but another guy got a few. I think their main guy is on the small side, should be an interesting matchup for a guy as big and strong as Mullen.

If I recall correctly… Mullen really struggled against Duke and their smaller Fogo last year. Hopefully he’s locked in for this matchup

 

[Powellfan]

When I saw Saint Joe's at Duke a few weeks back, Duke used at least 2 face off guys. One seemed to take most of them, but another guy got a few. I think their main guy is on the small side, should be an interesting matchup for a guy as big and strong as Mullen.

Cal Girard has taken most of their face-offs and sits at 64% for the year. Don't think he's faced this stiffest of competition this year however. In two games last year, Mullen went 25/38 against Duke (66%), which included Girard. Ben McCarthy is Duke's number two guy, he's at 55% this year. FWIW he only went 0-4 against SU last year.

If I recall correctly… Mullen really struggled against Duke and their smaller Fogo last year. Hopefully he’s locked in for this matchup

I believe you are thinking of two years ago in the ACC Tournament? Girard won the first six face-offs of the game I think and Duke got out to a 5 goal lead. SU ended up winning the face-off battle that day 18 to 14, but the damage was already done in the first quarter. Mullen won 6-13 on the day (Mason Kohn was the main FOGO).

 

[JeremyCuse]

Quick shout out again to Brent Axe for asking good but tough questions. I also want to again recommend the Brent Axe SU insider text program. I think its like 3.99 a month and I find it well worth the $$. Exchanged some thoughts with Brent this morning and an exact question I had he asked in today's presser, you can't get any better than that.

 

[JeremyCuse]

Will try and get something more in depth tomorrow but Saturdays game is enormous for both teams.

If your Duke you need a top 10 win to solidify your uncharacteristically weak OOC and prove that undefeated record as well as bumping up the RPI and SOS.

If your Syracuse you have great SOS and RPI #s and your two losses were to an undefeated Harvard team and a very good Princeton squad plus some real nice wins including @ Hop, @ Denver, @ Penn and the BU/St Joes victories. The flip side is SU has @ UNC next. If you lose to Duke your likely looking at an 0-2 ACC start (not conceding the UNC game but you get the point). Then the rumbles start about is the ACC tourney in jeopardy etc.

A ton at stake on Saturday for both squads.

 

[MadNY3]

Quick shout out again to Brent Axe for asking good but tough questions. I also want to again recommend the Brent Axe SU insider text program. I think its like 3.99 a month and I find it well worth the $$. Exchanged some thoughts with Brent this morning and an exact question I had he asked in today's presser, you can't get any better than that.

I give Axe credit: he gets people to pay to make him better at his job! Keep feeding him questions!

 

[FloridaCuse]

LACROSSE REFERENCE
via Free Expected Goals Email March 27, 2026

Weekend Preview

#2: Syracuse vs Duke​

Sat, Mar 28 @ 2pm ET

Syracuse Summary​

Record: 8 - 2
LaxElo Rank: 4th
LaxElo Movement (this season): +61 rating points
Offense: 37.8% efficiency (6th nationally)
Defense: 23.0% efficiency (10th nationally)
Faceoffs: 58.3% win rate (12th nationally)
Highest Usage: Joey Spallina (13.0% play share)
Most Efficient: Payton Anderson (2.20 usage adjusted EGA; 4.6% play share)
Quarterback: Joey Spallina (35% of the team's assists)
Finisher: Joey Spallina (16% of the team's shots)
Most Productive: Joey Spallina (29 devittes)
Vacuum: Riley Figueiras (10% of the team's ground balls)
Disruptor: Riley Figueiras (12 total caused turnovers)
FOGO: John Mullen (57% faceoff win rate)
Goalie: Jimmy McCool (57% save percentage)

Duke Summary​

Record: 8 - 0
LaxElo Rank: 6th
LaxElo Movement (this season): +65 rating points
Offense: 37.8% efficiency (5th nationally)
Defense: 20.1% efficiency (3rd nationally)
Faceoffs: 59.8% win rate (10th nationally)
Highest Usage: Benn Johnston (10.7% play share)
Most Efficient: Max Sloat (2.61 usage adjusted EGA; 6.3% play share)
Quarterback: Thomas Mencke (14% of the team's assists)
Finisher: Benn Johnston (19% of the team's shots)
Most Productive: Benn Johnston (23 devittes)
Vacuum: Benn Johnston (7% of the team's ground balls)
Disruptor: Henry Bard (11 total caused turnovers)
FOGO: Cal Girard (62% faceoff win rate)
Goalie: Patrick Jameison (56% save percentage)

Ripple Effects​

Rooting for Syracuse​

Johns Hopkins
Maryland

Rooting for Duke

The one team that has a rooting interest in this outcome is Saint Joseph's. Their non-AQ NCAA probability is 1.5 percentage points higher if Duke wins this one.

 

[Powellfan]

This really feels like a game SU should win. Duke has had a pretty easy road so far, and their scoring margin has been impressive, but it feels like up and down the field SU should have the upper hand. It's by far Duke's most challenging game of the year, and it's on the road. If SU wants to be a true title challenger, they need to beat Duke, and by more than a few goals.

I haven't watch Duke this year (they haven't given me much of a reason to with that schedule), but their stats are interesting. Hard to take too much away from them as they haven't played near the schedule SU has, but it looks like Benn Johnston has moved to attack - at the very least he leads the team in scoring. The curious stat for the Duke offense is that their leading assist producer (Thomas Menke) is the teams seventh leading scorer with just 11 helpers this year. Not sure I've ever seen that before. I have to think this means you slide pretty hard on Duke, make them think and hope that throws off their timing.

Duke and SU split their matchups last year, with SU winning the ACC tournament game. Good news for the Orange is the players who scored most against them last year are gone. Eric Malever and Andrew McAdory combined for 14 points in two games against the Orange last year. On the flip side the Orange get their two highest point producers against Duke back, as Spallina and Leo combined for 13 points last year.

I guess the biggest question for the Orange is the status of Chuck K - Duke has a decent midfield and his loss will be felt if he's suspended. Overall though I think the Orange defense should matchup well with Duke. I imagine Dwan will take Johnston and Figuerias will take Kyle Colsey? Again, it's unclear who is playing where for Duke right now.

Go Cuse. HHH.

 

[DoctahLexus]

This really feels like a game SU should win. Duke has had a pretty easy road so far, and their scoring margin has been impressive, but it feels like up and down the field SU should have the upper hand. It's by far Duke's most challenging game of the year, and it's on the road. If SU wants to be a true title challenger, they need to beat Duke, and by more than a few goals.

I haven't watch Duke this year (they haven't given me much of a reason to with that schedule), but their stats are interesting. Hard to take too much away from them as they haven't played near the schedule SU has, but it looks like Benn Johnston has moved to attack - at the very least he leads the team in scoring. The curious stat for the Duke offense is that their leading assist producer (Thomas Menke) is the teams seventh leading scorer with just 11 helpers this year. Not sure I've ever seen that before. I have to think this means you slide pretty hard on Duke, make them think and hope that throws off their timing.

Duke and SU split their matchups last year, with SU winning the ACC tournament game. Good news for the Orange is the players who scored most against them last year are gone. Eric Malever and Andrew McAdory combined for 14 points in two games against the Orange last year. On the flip side the Orange get their two highest point producers against Duke back, as Spallina and Leo combined for 13 points last year.

I guess the biggest question for the Orange is the status of Chuck K - Duke has a decent midfield and his loss will be felt if he's suspended. Overall though I think the Orange defense should matchup well with Duke. I imagine Dwan will take Johnston and Figuerias will take Kyle Colsey? Again, it's unclear who is playing where for Duke right now.

Go Cuse. HHH.

Only thing I will add is that we need to LIMIT TRANSITION! On the road at Duke last year they had a zillion opportunities to score in transition and capitalized on a few. Mac Christmas and McGuire are both excellent there. Sometimes it seems like we are too focused on subbing off offensive guys after a failed possession. Our middies would be jogging off while their ssdms and lsm are pushing it full speed. If they stay on then you can’t do the whole box subbing routine like there is no threat! We had some great transition goals against Georgetown but also gave up some opportunities with that same kind of thing.

Mullen will often go off the field after losing a faceoff even if the fogo for the other team stays on. This should be obvious, but you can't do that!! If the fogo stays on Mullen has to suck it up and stay out there otherwise it just obviously creates numbers. Some very frustrating moments in that department last year against Duke and in the Georgetown game. Limit stuff like that and we win.

 

[Hawknate144]

Don't think it's been formally announced, it probably doesn't need to be. I have sources that say Chuck will not be playing.

 

[wgdsr]

Don't think it's been formally announced, it probably doesn't need to be. I have sources that say Chuck will not be playing.

my source is the rule book, and he won't be in the dome. there's no room for any other outcome.

 

[Hawknate144]

my source is the rule book, and he won't be in the dome. there's no room for any other outcome.

Well yeah, I figured, just wanted to state it because it hasn't been announced, it was pretty obvious

 

[Lax Mouse]

Just rewatched the highlights of the ACC championship game last year. Few things stood out:

Cuse was on fire early on offense due in large part to crisp ball movement. They were spinning the rock and Duke simply could not keep up. However, Cuse got a bit too loose with it and had some typical showboaty/forced looks and shots that prevented them from building what could've been an even larger lead. Lots of good looks early that missed the net. Went low a lot and Jameison was eating those up, though some of the shots low fell late in the game.

Hard to tell on the highlights but either Duke made adjustments or Cuse stepped off the gas because most of their later goals were individual efforts. Many dodges on cage and winning 1v1 matchups.

It's good to have the dodging in your back pocket but this team more likely reaches its ceiling through disciplined team offense. Not many teams that can keep up with Cuse's firepower if they play unselfish and smart. But against a John Danowski team, you truly have to be disciplined. Smart passes, smart shot selection and placement, value the possessions and take calculated chances.

If the Orange offense plays composed, I like them a lot against this defense. Jameison wasn't exactly lighting it up in cage - Cuse made it a pretty easy game for him.

On the other end of the field, as noted a lot of Duke's key personnel has turned over. Very clear though that the Blue Devil's game plan was to attack the short stick matchups and it worked very well for them. Most Duke goals seemed to follow a short stick getting beat or being out of position. That group has improved this year, and with Johnston moving to attack, that negates his advantage against the ssdms (although I'm sure they'll work to switch the matchups). Hard to know how this new look Duke offense will do against a defense like Syracuse (they did okay vs Denver last week). I'd generally try to not gift the Blue Devil's free offense - make them earn a slide.

This feels like a game that, if we get the best version of the Orange, they should be able to take by a few goals. But that best version has been elusive this year.