I think your post is the gist of it. I'm not even worried about JB's remaining tenure here. Syracuse just can't continue to have mediocre/bad regular seasons which culminate with NIT berths. Recruits won't sign up for that. If no Tucker/Ayala then I think it could be a losing record type scenario. The F4 run and drafted players recently is nice but, imo, consistent good performance on the court trumps all that. Right now that is not close to happening. Gotta get recruits which will help turn things around in the regular season. Lack of F4s recently hasn't hurt Kansas, Arizona, Miami, etc. Their recruiting is very good and they reload after sudden departures (not so much Miami).
I think that if the team is NIT this coming season or, god forbid a losing record, then Wildhack will pull the plug on Boeheim. I mean I would expect him to. Not even sure how you justify the opposite. It would just be time to go after an amazing career for a guy who truly built a program and brand. I think it could be a benefit as well. There is no way in hell I believe that GMac or Autry would be the next HC. I expect a search to be executed and a proven younger coach at the mid-major level or higher to get the gig. I think the new coach would rejuvenate the brand and style of play assuming things get worse than better in the near future where this move would be absolutely necessary.
Getting Tucker is huge in so many aspects. It's an immediate need to the roster where major minutes are available. It also would prove to me that the kid believes what JB is selling and sees the program ascending in the direction we hope it will.